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Serie A · Matchweek 18

Momentum

FiorentinaCremonese
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
18

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze
Capacity
43,147
Surface
grass
Attendance
19,827

Teams

Coaches
Paolo Vanoli · Davide Nicola
Position
20 · 13
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-5-2

Referee

Federico La Penna

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
3.1° (feels 1.2°)
Wind
1.9
Humidity
90%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Fiorentina

WLLWL 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 8 GA 6 · xG 9.51–5.29 · xPts 9.25

  • L A Parma 0–1 xG 1.45–1.14 ITA SA
  • W H Udinese 5–1 xG 2.5–0.76 ITA SA
  • L A Lausanne Sport 0–1 xG 0.97–1.71 UEFA ECL
  • L H Hellas Verona 1–2 xG 1.61–1.11 ITA SA
  • W H Dynamo Kyiv 2–1 xG 2.98–0.57 UEFA ECL

Cremonese

WWLDL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 4 · xG 5.21–9.19 · xPts 4.85

  • L H Napoli 0–2 xG 0.55–2.85 ITA SA
  • D A Lazio 0–0 xG 0.53–0.35 ITA SA
  • L A Torino 0–1 xG 0.67–1.73 ITA SA
  • W H Lecce 2–0 xG 1.93–1.17 ITA SA
  • W A Bologna 3–1 xG 1.54–3.1 ITA SA

All meetings · 4 matches since 2022

Fiorentina 40 draws0 Cremonese

Goals 10–3 · 3.25 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 4 matches

Fiorentina 40 draws0 Cremonese

Goals 10–3 · 3.25 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 4 matches

Fiorentina 40 draws0 Cremonese

Goals 10–3 · 3.25 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Recent meetings

  • W Cremonese 1–4 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Fiorentina 1–0 Cremonese ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Cremonese 0–2 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Fiorentina 3–2 Cremonese ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricFiorentina all · 38Fiorentina at home · 19Cremonese all · 38Cremonese away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.111.110.890.95
W / D / L9 / 15 / 144 / 9 / 68 / 10 / 205 / 3 / 11
Goals for / match1.081.110.840.74
Goals against / match1.321.111.501.47
Clean sheets26%32%29%26%
Failed to score29%21%45%53%
Both teams scored58%63%42%32%
Over 2.550%42%45%42%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.361.590.950.73
xG against / match1.431.151.591.77
xG difference-0.080.45-0.64-1.04
Finishing vs xG-0.28-0.49-0.110.01
xPts / match1.331.631.010.77
Points vs xPts-0.23-0.53-0.110.18
Game state
Scored first45%42%32%26%
PPG when scoring first1.821.752.253.00
PPG when conceding first0.380.500.050.08
Came back from behind30%40%5%8%
Leads held45%44%67%100%
Minutes leading21%22%18%18%
Minutes level53%51%48%44%
Minutes trailing26%27%34%38%
First goal (min)46504947
First goal conceded (min)44403735
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%62%62%64%
Goals conceded in 2nd half60%48%51%39%
Late goals for (76'+)0.180.210.240.11
Late goals against0.320.260.240.16
Style
Possession51%52%46%46%
Shots12.915.79.17.9
On target3.44.13.32.9
Shot conversion8%7%9%9%
Shots inside box63%62%61%59%
Big chances created2.22.61.61.3
Corners4.45.53.53.4
xG from set plays32%27%34%32%
Goals from headers10%14%19%14%
Pressure index13.117.36.95.7
Dominant minutes47.754.732.829.1
Pass accuracy84%85%78%77%
Fouls12.411.913.513.7
Cards2.292.162.082.05

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Fiorentina

0–15'48
16–30'76
31–45'66
46–60'1010
61–75'78
76–90'712

Cremonese

0–15'49
16–30'37
31–45'512
46–60'810
61–75'310
76–90'99

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Fiorentina · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: 10 min after conceding +0.33

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.174
Early press (0-15, level)+0.094

Game state

When ahead+0.082
When level+0.224
When behind+0.194
10 min after conceding+0.334
10 min after scoring+0.492

Situations

At home+0.192
Away+0.152
4+ days rest+0.174

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.422
As favourite+0.192

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.244
Conceded when ahead+0.202
Conceded late (76+)+0.192

Ahead vs level -0.14 · Behind vs level -0.03

Cremonese

No pressure profile yet.

Fiorentina

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-315 40%1.81.270.931.151.44
3-5-28 21%0.381.01.881.711.41
3-4-2-13 8%0.670.671.01.061.22
3-5-1-13 8%0.00.332.670.972.24
4-1-4-13 8%0.670.671.01.421.41

Cremonese

Current: winless 1 · scoring 4 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-226 68%0.770.691.580.961.66
4-4-25 13%1.41.01.00.630.89
3-1-4-24 10%1.751.50.751.312.02
4-1-3-21 3%0.01.02.01.471.24
3-4-31 3%0.01.02.00.80.84

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.7Home 56% P 56%3.75Draw 25% P 25%5.0Away 19% P 19%

Double Chance

1.18Fiorentina or Draw 40% P 40%1.25Fiorentina or Cremonese 38% P 37%2.1Draw or Cremonese 22% P 22%

Draw No Bet

1.281 73%3.52 27%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52% P 53%1.95No 48% P 47%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 52%2.0Under 47% P 48%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.756 - 8 32%2.629 - 11 33%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.51.8Over 51% P 50%1.9Under 49% P 50%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 55–57.5% · away 17.5–20% · 762 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home56%56%53%-2.8
Draw25%25%26%+1.0
Away19%19%21%+1.8

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 52%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes53%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.552%51%51%-0.1

Federico La Penna

Career
103 matches · 13 seasons
Cards / match
4.58 (4.39 yellow · 0.06 red)
Fouls / match
27.2 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.31
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 52 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.734.48+0.3561
Fouls / match26.325.1+0.78
Fouls per card5.75.6-0.17 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.310.31-0.1356
Time added6.86.4+0.7980
First card
33' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.28

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-28 30 200 19'6
2025-12-07 30 210 33'5
2025-11-22 71 380 9'6
2025-10-26 · Fiorentina 81 332 36'8
2025-10-05 40 310 28'6
2025-09-21 · Cremonese 10 240 66'14
2025-08-25 20 2
2025-05-23 30 280 31'9
2025-05-11 40 211 25'9
2025-04-27 20 182 49'8