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Serie A · Matchweek 19

Momentum

ParmaInter
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
19

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
Capacity
27,906
Surface
grass
Attendance
21,601

Teams

Coaches
Carlos Antón Cuesta · Cristian Chivu
Position
15 · 1
Formation
4-3-3 · 3-5-2

Referee

Andrea Colombo

Weather

Conditions
fog
Temperature
-2.1° (feels -2.1°)
Wind
1.0
Humidity
93%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Parma

LWLWD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 3 GA 4 · xG 6.11–6.97 · xPts 6.26

  • D A Sassuolo 1–1 xG 1.3–1.02 ITA SA
  • W H Fiorentina 1–0 xG 1.14–1.45 ITA SA
  • L H Lazio 0–1 xG 1.58–1.27 ITA SA
  • W A Pisa 1–0 xG 1.17–1.76 ITA SA
  • L H Udinese 0–2 xG 0.92–1.46 ITA SA

Inter

WLWWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 10 GA 3 · xG 7.64–4.59 · xPts 8.76

  • W H Bologna 3–1 xG 2.71–0.84 ITA SA
  • W A Atalanta 1–0 xG 1.08–0.81 ITA SA
  • W A Genoa 2–1 xG 1.41–0.4 ITA SA
  • L H Liverpool 0–1 xG 0.63–1.42 UEFA CL
  • W H Como 4–0 xG 1.79–1.12 ITA SA

All meetings · 28 matches since 2005

Parma 66 draws16 Inter

Goals 29–50 · 2.82 per match · BTTS 46% · over 2.5 43%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Parma 13 draws6 Inter

Goals 10–18 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Parma 01 draws4 Inter

Goals 4–11 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Inter 2–0 Parma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Parma 0–2 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Parma 2–2 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Inter 3–1 Parma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Parma 1–2 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Inter 2–2 Parma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Parma 1–2 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Inter 2–2 Parma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Parma 0–1 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Inter 0–1 Parma ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricParma all · 38Parma at home · 19Inter all · 38Inter away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.181.112.292.21
W / D / L11 / 12 / 155 / 6 / 827 / 6 / 513 / 3 / 3
Goals for / match0.740.842.342.05
Goals against / match1.211.320.921.00
Clean sheets34%26%47%53%
Failed to score42%37%5%5%
Both teams scored40%47%47%42%
Over 2.529%32%55%47%
Expected goals
xG for / match0.890.921.941.64
xG against / match1.561.530.901.03
xG difference-0.66-0.611.040.61
Finishing vs xG-0.15-0.080.400.41
xPts / match1.011.062.001.77
Points vs xPts0.170.040.290.44
Game state
Scored first34%37%84%79%
PPG when scoring first2.462.292.532.60
PPG when conceding first0.370.301.000.75
Came back from behind25%27%38%40%
Leads held73%62%77%76%
Minutes leading13%12%52%50%
Minutes level63%63%39%37%
Minutes trailing24%25%10%12%
First goal (min)48472929
First goal conceded (min)41425044
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half64%69%58%54%
Goals conceded in 2nd half63%60%54%53%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.320.550.47
Late goals against0.340.320.320.26
Style
Possession44%46%60%60%
Shots10.712.417.116.0
On target2.72.96.05.2
Shot conversion7%7%14%13%
Shots inside box56%56%72%68%
Big chances created1.61.43.93.0
Corners3.84.26.35.3
xG from set plays40%37%28%26%
Goals from headers36%31%23%29%
Pressure index9.110.823.021.1
Dominant minutes37.843.466.161.9
Pass accuracy80%80%87%87%
Fouls10.810.913.113.1
Cards1.972.111.682.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Parma

0–15'47
16–30'34
31–45'36
46–60'48
61–75'48
76–90'1013

Inter

0–15'122
16–30'115
31–45'149
46–60'153
61–75'164
76–90'2112

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Parma · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.20) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) +0.53

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.204
Early press (0-15, level)+0.534
Late push (76+, level)-0.722
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.523

Game state

When level-0.214
When behind-0.194
10 min after conceding-0.494
10 min after scoring-0.162

Situations

At home-0.242
Away-0.172
4+ days rest-0.204

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.172
Evenly matched-0.242
As underdog-0.172

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.404
Conceded late (76+)+0.494

Behind vs level +0.02

Inter · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.71) · stands out: when behind +1.11

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.715
Early press (0-15, level)+0.205
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.202

Game state

When ahead+0.584
When level+0.455
When behind+1.113
10 min after conceding+0.514
10 min after scoring+0.425

Situations

At home+0.523
Away+0.962
4+ days rest+0.674

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.752
As favourite+0.674

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.365
Conceded when ahead-0.414
Conceded late (76+)-0.414

Congested vs rested +0.20 · Ahead vs level +0.13 · Behind vs level +0.66

Parma

Current: winless 4 · scoring 2 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-219 50%1.320.740.890.841.35
4-3-36 16%1.830.830.671.011.5
3-4-2-14 10%1.00.51.751.062.38
3-1-4-23 8%0.670.671.670.751.27
4-4-22 5%0.00.51.51.241.14

Inter

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 15 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-238 100%2.292.340.921.940.9

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

10.0Home 9% P 10%4.75Draw 20% P 18%1.33Away 71% P 72%

Double Chance

3.25Parma or Draw 15% P 14%1.18Parma or Inter Milan 40% P 41%1.06Draw or Inter Milan 45% P 45%

Draw No Bet

8.01 12%1.082 88%

Both Teams To Score

2.0Yes 47% P 47%1.75No 53% P 53%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.66Over 57% P 58%2.2Under 43% P 42%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 33%4.7512 - 14 18%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50%1.83Under 50%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 5–10% · away 70–75% · 228 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home10%9%7%-2.1
Draw18%18%18%-0.1
Away72%73%75%+2.3

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 45% · over 2.5 56%

Both teams to score · yes 45–47.5% · 2,102 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes47%46%47%+0.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.558%59%60%+0.8

Andrea Colombo

Career
72 matches · 6 seasons
Cards / match
5.17 (4.96 yellow · 0.17 red)
Fouls / match
24.9 · 4.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.21
Cards to home side
42%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 62 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.04.48+0.7378
Fouls / match25.225.1+0.05
Fouls per card5.15.6-0.71 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.160.31-1.315
Time added6.56.4+0.1749
First card
30' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
42% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.37

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-27 70 330 13'7
2025-12-14 60 320 25'9
2025-12-11 31 250 19'5
2025-10-26 60 290 30'6
2025-10-05 50 400 3'8
2025-10-02 40 190 49'5
2025-09-21 20 5
2025-09-13 · Inter 40 240 33'6
2025-08-28 61 211 3'10
2025-07-30 40 251 69'4