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Serie A · Matchweek 21

Momentum

UdineseInter
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
21

Venue

Stadium
Dacia Arena, Udine
Capacity
25,132
Surface
grass
Attendance
24,929

Teams

Coaches
Kosta Runjaic · Cristian Chivu
Position
10 · 1
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-5-2

Referee

Marco Di Bello

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
14.0° (feels 12.7°)
Wind
2.6
Humidity
51%

Where to watch · 337

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Udinese

LDLWD 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 10 · xG 6.26–8.24 · xPts 5.86

  • D H Pisa 2–2 xG 2.01–1.64 ITA SA
  • W A Torino 2–1 xG 2.37–1.12 ITA SA
  • L A Como 0–1 xG 0.19–2.23 ITA SA
  • D H Lazio 1–1 xG 0.93–0.75 ITA SA
  • L A Fiorentina 1–5 xG 0.76–2.5 ITA SA

Inter

WWWDW 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 9 GA 3 · xG 10.06–3.73 · xPts 10.69

  • W H Lecce 1–0 xG 1.8–0.51 ITA SA
  • D H Napoli 2–2 xG 1.58–1.08 ITA SA
  • W A Parma 2–0 xG 2.89–0.49 ITA SA
  • W H Bologna 3–1 xG 2.71–0.84 ITA SA
  • W A Atalanta 1–0 xG 1.08–0.81 ITA SA

All meetings · 43 matches since 2005

Udinese 87 draws28 Inter

Goals 45–81 · 2.93 per match · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 63%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Udinese 20 draws8 Inter

Goals 14–24 · 3.8 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 90%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Udinese 10 draws4 Inter

Goals 8–12 · 4.0 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • L Inter 5–3 Udinese ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Udinese 0–1 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Inter 1–2 Udinese ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Inter 2–1 Udinese ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Udinese 2–3 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Udinese 1–2 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Inter 4–0 Udinese ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Inter 3–1 Udinese ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Udinese 3–1 Inter neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Udinese 1–2 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricUdinese all · 38Udinese at home · 19Inter all · 38Inter away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.321.212.292.21
W / D / L14 / 8 / 166 / 5 / 827 / 6 / 513 / 3 / 3
Goals for / match1.180.952.342.05
Goals against / match1.261.110.921.00
Clean sheets29%32%47%53%
Failed to score29%37%5%5%
Both teams scored45%37%47%42%
Over 2.545%37%55%47%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.151.141.941.64
xG against / match1.461.200.901.03
xG difference-0.32-0.051.040.61
Finishing vs xG0.04-0.190.400.41
xPts / match1.191.322.001.77
Points vs xPts0.12-0.110.290.44
Game state
Scored first45%42%84%79%
PPG when scoring first2.472.382.532.60
PPG when conceding first0.350.301.000.75
Came back from behind27%27%38%40%
Leads held74%67%77%76%
Minutes leading26%23%52%50%
Minutes level47%50%39%37%
Minutes trailing28%26%10%12%
First goal (min)41442929
First goal conceded (min)37425044
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%56%58%54%
Goals conceded in 2nd half58%67%54%53%
Late goals for (76'+)0.210.160.550.47
Late goals against0.290.210.320.26
Style
Possession46%48%60%60%
Shots11.612.817.116.0
On target3.83.96.05.2
Shot conversion10%7%14%13%
Shots inside box60%57%72%68%
Big chances created1.91.83.93.0
Corners4.54.76.35.3
xG from set plays28%33%28%26%
Goals from headers20%29%23%29%
Pressure index9.811.023.021.1
Dominant minutes41.245.466.161.9
Pass accuracy80%82%87%87%
Fouls13.613.713.113.1
Cards1.921.741.682.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Udinese

0–15'47
16–30'77
31–45'86
46–60'1010
61–75'87
76–90'811

Inter

0–15'122
16–30'115
31–45'149
46–60'153
61–75'164
76–90'2112

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Udinese · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.21) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.44

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.214
Early press (0-15, level)-0.074
Late push (76+, level)-0.642
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.682

Game state

When ahead+0.004
When level-0.274
When behind-0.612
10 min after conceding-0.444
10 min after scoring+0.204

Situations

At home-0.352
Away-0.062
4+ days rest-0.214

Opposition

Evenly matched-0.002
As underdog-0.442

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.324
Conceded when ahead+0.244
Conceded late (76+)+0.304

Ahead vs level +0.28 · Behind vs level -0.34

Inter · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.71) · stands out: when behind +1.11

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.715
Early press (0-15, level)+0.205
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.202

Game state

When ahead+0.584
When level+0.455
When behind+1.113
10 min after conceding+0.514
10 min after scoring+0.425

Situations

At home+0.523
Away+0.962
4+ days rest+0.674

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.752
As favourite+0.674

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.365
Conceded when ahead-0.414
Conceded late (76+)-0.414

Congested vs rested +0.20 · Ahead vs level +0.13 · Behind vs level +0.66

Udinese

Current: winless 2 · scoring 4 · conceding 6

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-219 50%1.371.161.161.081.29
3-4-2-19 24%1.221.221.441.081.49
4-4-23 8%1.331.332.01.611.43
3-1-4-22 5%1.51.00.50.822.06
3-5-1-11 3%0.00.03.01.642.62

Inter

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 15 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-238 100%2.292.340.921.940.9

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.4h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

7.0Home 14% P 13%4.5Draw 21% P 22%1.45Away 65% P 65%

Double Chance

2.62Udinese or Draw 18% P 17%1.18Udinese or Inter Milan 40% P 39%1.1Draw or Inter Milan 43% P 44%

Draw No Bet

3.751 25%1.252 75%

Both Teams To Score

2.0Yes 47% P 49%1.75No 53% P 51%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 53%2.0Under 47% P 47%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

2.51.61Over 58%2.2Under 42%
3.52.1Over 44% P 38%1.66Under 56% P 62%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 12.5–15% · away 65–67.5% · 254 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home13%14%13%-0.7
Draw22%20%21%+1.1
Away65%66%66%-0.5

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 58%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes49%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,943 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.553%54%55%+0.8

Marco Di Bello

Career
216 matches · 16 seasons
Cards / match
4.83 (4.55 yellow · 0.19 red)
Fouls / match
26.6 · 4.9 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.36
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 67 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.94.48-0.8322
Fouls / match26.125.1+0.66
Fouls per card6.85.6+0.97 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.390.31+0.5168
Time added6.36.4-0.2527
First card
37' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.04

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-07 10 310 88'6
2025-12-29 10 260 50'5
2025-12-06 · Inter 30 290 44'5
2025-11-22 30 230 59'6
2025-11-08 20 241 70'9
2025-10-29 · Udinese 50 252 3'8
2025-09-27 71 330 9'7
2025-05-25 20 261 63'5
2025-05-03 20 300 12'6
2025-04-12 · Inter 10 180 69'2