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Serie A · Matchweek 24

Momentum

RomaCagliari
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
24

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Olimpico, Roma
Capacity
72,698
Surface
grass
Attendance
60,334

Teams

Coaches
Gian Gasperini · Fabio Pisacane
Position
5 · 12
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-5-2

Referee

Matteo Marcenaro

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
11.3° (feels 10.7°)
Wind
1.5
Humidity
85%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Roma

WWDDL 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 6 GA 3 · xG 7.44–3.69 · xPts 9.38

  • L A Udinese 0–1 xG 0.98–0.33 ITA SA
  • D A Panathinaikos 1–1 xG 1.31–0.93 UEFA EL
  • D H AC Milan 1–1 xG 2.4–0.36 ITA SA
  • W H VfB Stuttgart 2–0 xG 1.05–1.44 UEFA EL
  • W A Torino 2–0 xG 1.7–0.63 ITA SA

Cagliari

DLWWW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 9 GA 6 · xG 6.15–6.58 · xPts 6.66

  • W H Hellas Verona 4–0 xG 1.61–0.48 ITA SA
  • W A Fiorentina 2–1 xG 1.02–2.26 ITA SA
  • W H Juventus 1–0 xG 0.29–1.52 ITA SA
  • L A Genoa 0–3 xG 1.14–0.79 ITA SA
  • D A Cremonese 2–2 xG 2.09–1.52 ITA SA

All meetings · 38 matches since 2005

Roma 229 draws7 Cagliari

Goals 73–47 · 3.16 per match · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 60%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Roma 71 draws2 Cagliari

Goals 19–8 · 2.7 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Roma 31 draws1 Cagliari

Goals 7–1 · 1.6 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 20%

Recent meetings

  • W Roma 2–0 Cagliari ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Cagliari 1–0 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Roma 1–0 Cagliari ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Cagliari 0–0 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Roma 4–0 Cagliari ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Cagliari 1–4 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Roma 1–0 Cagliari neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Cagliari 1–2 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Cagliari 3–2 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Roma 3–2 Cagliari neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricRoma all · 38Roma at home · 19Cagliari all · 38Cagliari away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.922.211.130.95
W / D / L23 / 4 / 1113 / 3 / 311 / 10 / 174 / 6 / 9
Goals for / match1.551.741.050.95
Goals against / match0.820.531.391.58
Clean sheets47%58%21%10%
Failed to score18%16%37%37%
Both teams scored34%26%50%63%
Over 2.537%32%50%63%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.481.571.021.08
xG against / match0.990.731.401.56
xG difference0.490.85-0.38-0.49
Finishing vs xG0.070.160.03-0.13
xPts / match1.701.911.131.08
Points vs xPts0.220.300.00-0.13
Game state
Scored first66%74%29%26%
PPG when scoring first2.722.862.091.00
PPG when conceding first0.380.400.710.92
Came back from behind27%40%35%36%
Leads held88%93%65%50%
Minutes leading40%41%16%12%
Minutes level44%46%51%50%
Minutes trailing16%12%32%37%
First goal (min)36424945
First goal conceded (min)46493736
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%58%60%61%
Goals conceded in 2nd half68%70%58%60%
Late goals for (76'+)0.240.320.210.16
Late goals against0.260.210.370.37
Style
Possession56%58%46%46%
Shots13.215.310.911.1
On target4.75.23.53.5
Shot conversion12%11%10%8%
Shots inside box74%75%61%60%
Big chances created2.22.41.91.8
Corners5.25.73.83.4
xG from set plays31%27%37%31%
Goals from headers20%27%30%11%
Pressure index18.621.08.57.7
Dominant minutes61.968.036.833.5
Pass accuracy83%85%80%81%
Fouls13.812.713.813.7
Cards1.891.632.242.58

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Roma

0–15'85
16–30'90
31–45'105
46–60'108
61–75'133
76–90'910

Cagliari

0–15'29
16–30'46
31–45'107
46–60'710
61–75'97
76–90'814

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Roma · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.66) · stands out: when level +0.82

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.665
Early press (0-15, level)+0.385
Late push (76+, level)+0.042

Game state

When ahead+0.365
When level+0.825
10 min after conceding-0.312
10 min after scoring+0.545

Situations

At home+1.332
Away+0.173
4+ days rest+0.665

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.912
As favourite+0.665

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.195
Conceded when ahead-0.195
Conceded late (76+)-0.563

Ahead vs level -0.46 · Behind vs level -0.11

Cagliari · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.61

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.024
Early press (0-15, level)-0.334

Game state

When ahead+0.263
When level-0.024
10 min after conceding-0.552
10 min after scoring+0.613

Situations

At home-0.012
Away-0.032
4+ days rest-0.024

Opposition

As underdog-0.452

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.304
Conceded when ahead-0.083
Conceded late (76+)+0.064

Ahead vs level +0.28 · Behind vs level -0.47

Roma

Current: unbeaten 12 · wins 1 · scoring 22 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-130 79%1.91.630.871.450.98
3-4-1-24 10%2.251.250.251.710.58
3-5-23 8%1.331.331.331.781.78
3-4-31 3%3.01.00.00.780.6

Cagliari

Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-218 47%1.061.171.440.941.45
4-3-2-13 8%2.332.01.01.271.87
4-5-13 8%0.670.00.670.60.86
3-5-1-13 8%2.01.331.00.771.91
4-4-22 5%0.50.51.50.981.63

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.48Home 64% P 65%4.1Draw 23% P 23%7.5Away 13% P 12%

Double Chance

1.1Roma or Draw 43% P 44%1.22Roma or Cagliari 39% P 39%2.62Draw or Cagliari 18% P 17%

Draw No Bet

1.121 84%6.02 16%

Both Teams To Score

2.25Yes 41% P 40%1.57No 59% P 60%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 44%1.72Under 55% P 56%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50%1.83Under 50%
5.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 65–67.5% · away 10–12.5% · 253 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home65%66%64%-2.0
Draw23%22%22%+0.4
Away12%12%13%+1.7

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 42% · over 2.5 47%

Both teams to score · yes 40–42.5% · 664 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes40%41%41%-0.7

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.544%44%43%-1.2

Matteo Marcenaro

Career
53 matches · 6 seasons
Cards / match
5.3 (4.96 yellow · 0.28 red)
Fouls / match
24.7 · 4.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.3
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 49 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.04.49+0.7276
Fouls / match24.325.2-0.50
Fouls per card4.95.6-0.96 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.330.31+0.0358
Time added6.36.4-0.2427
First card
30' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 30% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.17

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-23 50 191 15'8
2026-01-10 · Roma 40 310 22'8
2025-11-30 40 250 59'5
2025-11-07 60 280 17'5
2025-10-29 50 320 26'8
2025-10-18 30 180 10'6
2025-09-14 50 330 10'8
2025-08-24 31 220 14'6
2025-07-24 20 150 43'8
2025-07-15 71 330 14'6