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Serie A · Matchweek 25

Momentum

InterJuventus
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
25

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
Capacity
75,817
Surface
grass
Attendance
75,515

Teams

Coaches
Cristian Chivu · Luciano Spalletti
Position
1 · 4
Formation
3-5-2 · 4-3-3

Referee

Federico La Penna

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
8.1° (feels 8.1°)
Wind
0.5
Humidity
91%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Inter

LWWWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 16 GA 5 · xG 12.72–4.49 · xPts 10.47

  • W A Sassuolo 5–0 xG 2.48–0.83 ITA SA
  • W A Cremonese 2–0 xG 1.6–0.64 ITA SA
  • W A Borussia Dortmund 2–0 xG 1.28–0.62 UEFA CL
  • W H Pisa 6–2 xG 5.64–0.36 ITA SA
  • L H Arsenal 1–3 xG 1.72–2.04 UEFA CL

Juventus

WWDWD 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 11 GA 3 · xG 10.16–4.71 · xPts 9.13

  • D H Lazio 2–2 xG 3.07–1.34 ITA SA
  • W A Parma 4–1 xG 4.37–0.72 ITA SA
  • D A Monaco 0–0 xG 0.28–0.53 UEFA CL
  • W H Napoli 3–0 xG 1.3–0.61 ITA SA
  • W H Benfica 2–0 xG 1.13–1.52 UEFA CL

All meetings · 40 matches since 2005

Inter 811 draws21 Juventus

Goals 41–57 · 2.45 per match · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 38%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Inter 33 draws4 Juventus

Goals 14–16 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 30%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Inter 21 draws2 Juventus

Goals 11–11 · 4.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Inter 3–2 Juventus ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Juventus 4–3 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Juventus 1–0 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Inter 4–4 Juventus ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Inter 1–0 Juventus ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Juventus 1–1 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Inter 0–1 Juventus ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Juventus 2–0 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Juventus 0–1 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Inter 1–1 Juventus neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricInter all · 38Inter at home · 19Juventus all · 38Juventus away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game2.292.371.821.68
W / D / L27 / 6 / 514 / 3 / 219 / 12 / 79 / 5 / 5
Goals for / match2.342.631.611.37
Goals against / match0.920.840.890.95
Clean sheets47%42%42%42%
Failed to score5%5%21%21%
Both teams scored47%53%45%42%
Over 2.555%63%40%37%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.942.241.831.59
xG against / match0.900.771.001.08
xG difference1.041.470.830.51
Finishing vs xG0.400.39-0.22-0.22
xPts / match2.002.221.831.65
Points vs xPts0.290.15-0.020.03
Game state
Scored first84%90%58%63%
PPG when scoring first2.532.472.642.50
PPG when conceding first1.001.500.620.17
Came back from behind38%33%50%17%
Leads held77%78%83%75%
Minutes leading52%53%35%33%
Minutes level39%40%49%48%
Minutes trailing10%7%17%18%
First goal (min)29293537
First goal conceded (min)50564039
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%62%61%62%
Goals conceded in 2nd half54%56%56%67%
Late goals for (76'+)0.550.630.340.21
Late goals against0.320.370.210.32
Style
Possession60%60%58%56%
Shots17.118.216.813.9
On target6.06.86.05.1
Shot conversion14%14%10%10%
Shots inside box72%75%65%66%
Big chances created3.94.72.92.7
Corners6.37.45.44.4
xG from set plays28%30%26%22%
Goals from headers23%18%24%15%
Pressure index23.024.922.519.4
Dominant minutes66.170.364.760.3
Pass accuracy87%88%86%85%
Fouls13.113.212.112.9
Cards1.681.371.451.79

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Inter

0–15'122
16–30'115
31–45'149
46–60'153
61–75'164
76–90'2112

Juventus

0–15'104
16–30'73
31–45'78
46–60'116
61–75'135
76–90'138

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Inter · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.71) · stands out: when behind +1.11

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.715
Early press (0-15, level)+0.205
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.202

Game state

When ahead+0.584
When level+0.455
When behind+1.113
10 min after conceding+0.514
10 min after scoring+0.425

Situations

At home+0.523
Away+0.962
4+ days rest+0.674

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.752
As favourite+0.674

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.365
Conceded when ahead-0.414
Conceded late (76+)-0.414

Congested vs rested +0.20 · Ahead vs level +0.13 · Behind vs level +0.66

Juventus · 5 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.27) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.64

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.275
Early press (0-15, level)-0.165
Late push (76+, level)+1.292
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.212

Game state

When ahead+0.423
When level+0.215
When behind+0.142
10 min after conceding-0.112
10 min after scoring+0.645

Situations

At home+0.173
Away+0.402
4+ days rest+0.275

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.152
As favourite+0.275

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.285
Conceded when ahead-0.343
Conceded late (76+)-0.494

Ahead vs level +0.20 · Behind vs level -0.07

Inter

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 15 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-238 100%2.292.340.921.940.9

Juventus

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 6 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-124 63%2.041.540.671.690.99
4-2-3-16 16%1.671.830.832.610.73
3-5-22 5%0.00.51.51.01.33
4-3-32 5%0.01.02.51.21.6
4-1-4-12 5%2.01.50.52.281.11

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.1h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.05Home 46% P 47%3.25Draw 29% P 30%3.9Away 24% P 23%

Double Chance

1.25Inter Milan or Draw 38% P 38%1.33Inter Milan or Juventus 35% P 35%1.72Draw or Juventus 27% P 26%

Draw No Bet

1.441 65%2.622 35%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52% P 52%1.95No 48% P 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 46%1.8Under 53% P 54%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54% P 56%2.0Under 46% P 44%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 45–47.5% · away 22.5–25% · 565 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home47%46%48%+1.4
Draw30%30%28%-1.5
Away23%24%24%+0.2

In those fixtures: 2.3 goals a game · BTTS 48% · over 2.5 41%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.546%46%45%-1.2

Federico La Penna

Career
103 matches · 13 seasons
Cards / match
4.58 (4.39 yellow · 0.06 red)
Fouls / match
27.2 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.31
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 52 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.734.48+0.3561
Fouls / match26.325.1+0.78
Fouls per card5.75.6-0.17 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.310.31-0.1356
Time added6.86.4+0.7980
First card
33' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.28

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-31 20 340 44'9
2026-01-12 70 370 15'4
2026-01-04 30 290 20'10
2025-12-28 · Inter 30 200 19'6
2025-12-07 · Juventus 30 210 33'5
2025-11-22 71 380 9'6
2025-10-26 81 332 36'8
2025-10-05 40 310 28'6
2025-09-21 10 240 66'14
2025-08-25 · Inter 20 2