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Serie A · Matchweek 27

Momentum

UdineseFiorentina
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
27

Venue

Stadium
Dacia Arena, Udine
Capacity
25,132
Surface
grass
Attendance
18,265

Teams

Coaches
Kosta Runjaic · Paolo Vanoli
Position
12 · 17
Formation
3-5-2 · 3-5-1-1

Referee

Luca Pairetto

Weather

Conditions
fog
Temperature
8.5° (feels 7.4°)
Wind
2.1
Humidity
88%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Udinese

WWLLL 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 6 GA 6 · xG 4.39–6.34 · xPts 5.25

  • L A Bologna 0–1 xG 0.74–1.4 ITA SA
  • L H Sassuolo 1–2 xG 0.73–1.4 ITA SA
  • L A Lecce 1–2 xG 0.95–1.71 ITA SA
  • W H Roma 1–0 xG 0.33–0.98 ITA SA
  • W A Hellas Verona 3–1 xG 1.64–0.85 ITA SA

Fiorentina

DWWWL 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 10 GA 7 · xG 7.9–5.29 · xPts 8.65

  • L H Jagiellonia Białystok 2–4 aet xG 1.84–1.98 UEFA ECL
  • W H Pisa 1–0 xG 0.91–0.32 ITA SA
  • W A Jagiellonia Białystok 3–0 xG 2.35–0.76 UEFA ECL
  • W A Como 2–1 xG 1.22–1.12 ITA SA
  • D H Torino 2–2 xG 1.58–1.12 ITA SA

All meetings · 42 matches since 2005

Udinese 146 draws22 Fiorentina

Goals 54–72 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 52% · over 2.5 62%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Udinese 41 draws5 Fiorentina

Goals 15–16 · 3.1 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Udinese 21 draws2 Fiorentina

Goals 10–11 · 4.2 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • W Udinese 3–0 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Fiorentina 5–1 Udinese ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Udinese 2–3 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Fiorentina 1–2 Udinese ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Fiorentina 2–2 Udinese ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Udinese 0–2 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Fiorentina 2–0 Udinese ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Udinese 1–0 Fiorentina neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Fiorentina 0–4 Udinese neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Udinese 0–1 Fiorentina neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricUdinese all · 38Udinese at home · 19Fiorentina all · 38Fiorentina away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.321.211.111.11
W / D / L14 / 8 / 166 / 5 / 89 / 15 / 145 / 6 / 8
Goals for / match1.180.951.081.05
Goals against / match1.261.111.321.53
Clean sheets29%32%26%21%
Failed to score29%37%29%37%
Both teams scored45%37%58%53%
Over 2.545%37%50%58%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.151.141.361.12
xG against / match1.461.201.431.72
xG difference-0.32-0.05-0.08-0.60
Finishing vs xG0.04-0.19-0.28-0.07
xPts / match1.191.321.331.03
Points vs xPts0.12-0.11-0.230.07
Game state
Scored first45%42%45%47%
PPG when scoring first2.472.381.821.89
PPG when conceding first0.350.300.380.25
Came back from behind27%27%30%20%
Leads held74%67%45%46%
Minutes leading26%23%21%20%
Minutes level47%50%53%56%
Minutes trailing28%26%26%24%
First goal (min)41444640
First goal conceded (min)37424448
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%56%58%55%
Goals conceded in 2nd half58%67%60%69%
Late goals for (76'+)0.210.160.180.16
Late goals against0.290.210.320.37
Style
Possession46%48%51%50%
Shots11.612.812.910.1
On target3.83.93.42.8
Shot conversion10%7%8%10%
Shots inside box60%57%63%64%
Big chances created1.91.82.21.8
Corners4.54.74.43.4
xG from set plays28%33%32%39%
Goals from headers20%29%10%5%
Pressure index9.811.013.18.9
Dominant minutes41.245.447.740.7
Pass accuracy80%82%84%83%
Fouls13.613.712.412.9
Cards1.921.742.292.42

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Udinese

0–15'47
16–30'77
31–45'86
46–60'1010
61–75'87
76–90'811

Fiorentina

0–15'48
16–30'76
31–45'66
46–60'1010
61–75'78
76–90'712

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Udinese · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.21) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.44

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.214
Early press (0-15, level)-0.074
Late push (76+, level)-0.642
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.682

Game state

When ahead+0.004
When level-0.274
When behind-0.612
10 min after conceding-0.444
10 min after scoring+0.204

Situations

At home-0.352
Away-0.062
4+ days rest-0.214

Opposition

Evenly matched-0.002
As underdog-0.442

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.324
Conceded when ahead+0.244
Conceded late (76+)+0.304

Ahead vs level +0.28 · Behind vs level -0.34

Fiorentina · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: 10 min after conceding +0.33

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.174
Early press (0-15, level)+0.094

Game state

When ahead+0.082
When level+0.224
When behind+0.194
10 min after conceding+0.334
10 min after scoring+0.492

Situations

At home+0.192
Away+0.152
4+ days rest+0.174

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.422
As favourite+0.192

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.244
Conceded when ahead+0.202
Conceded late (76+)+0.192

Ahead vs level -0.14 · Behind vs level -0.03

Udinese

Current: winless 2 · scoring 4 · conceding 6

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-219 50%1.371.161.161.081.29
3-4-2-19 24%1.221.221.441.081.49
4-4-23 8%1.331.332.01.611.43
3-1-4-22 5%1.51.00.50.822.06
3-4-31 3%3.02.00.01.91.49

Fiorentina

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-315 40%1.81.270.931.151.44
3-5-28 21%0.381.01.881.711.41
4-1-4-13 8%0.670.671.01.421.41
3-5-1-13 8%0.00.332.670.972.24
3-4-2-13 8%0.670.671.01.061.22

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.25Home 29% P 29%3.1Draw 31% P 31%2.35Away 40% P 40%

Double Chance

1.57Udinese or Draw 18% P 30%1.33Tie or Fiorentina 21% P 35%1.36Udinese or Fiorentina 21% P 35%1.57Udinese or Tie 18% P 35%1.33Draw or Fiorentina 21% P 36%

Draw No Bet

2.21 42%1.612 58%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52% P 53%1.95No 48% P 47%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 44%1.72Under 55% P 56%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 13%2.756 - 8 32%2.759 - 11 32%5.512 - 14 16%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

5.52.2Over 42% P 42%1.61Under 58% P 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 27.5–30% · away 40–42.5% · 469 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home29%29%31%+2.1
Draw31%30%25%-4.9
Away40%41%44%+2.7

In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 51% · over 2.5 46%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes53%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.544%44%43%-1.2

Luca Pairetto

Career
158 matches · 14 seasons
Cards / match
4.98 (4.66 yellow · 0.13 red)
Fouls / match
27.0 · 5.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.45
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 60 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.94.49+0.5868
Fouls / match25.525.2+0.29
Fouls per card5.35.6-0.53 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.530.31+1.6993
Time added6.26.4-0.4520
First card
28' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 29% in last 15'
Cards to home side
42% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.18

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-15 31 211 11'8
2026-02-01 71 201 8'6
2026-01-18 50 310 20'5
2026-01-06 40 222 22'7
2025-12-20 71 340 38'6
2025-12-06 · Fiorentina 50 301 7'8
2025-11-23 70 300 8'8
2025-11-06 30 160 55'5
2025-10-30 80 410 12'8
2025-07-31 51 290 17'3