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Serie A · Matchweek 29

Momentum

CremoneseFiorentina
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
29

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona
Capacity
16,003
Surface
grass
Attendance
11,030

Teams

Coaches
Davide Nicola · Paolo Vanoli
Position
18 · 17
Formation
3-5-2 · 4-3-3

Referee

Marco Di Bello

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
12.2° (feels 11.0°)
Wind
1.4
Humidity
61%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Cremonese

LDLLL 0W 1D 4L · 1 pts (0.2 ppg) · GF 2 GA 9 · xG 6.02–11.04 · xPts 4.19

  • L A Lecce 1–2 xG 1.11–1.78 ITA SA
  • L H AC Milan 0–2 xG 1.09–2.5 ITA SA
  • L A Roma 0–3 xG 0.1–2.63 ITA SA
  • D H Genoa 0–0 xG 2.77–1.76 ITA SA
  • L A Atalanta 1–2 xG 0.96–2.35 ITA SA

Fiorentina

WLLDW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 8 · xG 7.27–4.78 · xPts 8.66

  • W H Raków Częstochowa 2–1 xG 2.23–0.51 UEFA ECL
  • D H Parma 0–0 xG 1.5–0.37 ITA SA
  • L A Udinese 0–3 xG 0.79–1.61 ITA SA
  • L H Jagiellonia Białystok 2–4 aet xG 1.84–1.98 UEFA ECL
  • W H Pisa 1–0 xG 0.91–0.32 ITA SA

All meetings · 4 matches since 2022

Cremonese 00 draws4 Fiorentina

Goals 3–10 · 3.25 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 4 matches

Cremonese 00 draws4 Fiorentina

Goals 3–10 · 3.25 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 4 matches

Cremonese 00 draws4 Fiorentina

Goals 3–10 · 3.25 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Recent meetings

  • L Cremonese 1–4 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Fiorentina 1–0 Cremonese ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Cremonese 0–2 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Fiorentina 3–2 Cremonese ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricCremonese all · 38Cremonese at home · 19Fiorentina all · 38Fiorentina away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game0.890.841.111.11
W / D / L8 / 10 / 203 / 7 / 99 / 15 / 145 / 6 / 8
Goals for / match0.840.951.081.05
Goals against / match1.501.531.321.53
Clean sheets29%32%26%21%
Failed to score45%37%29%37%
Both teams scored42%53%58%53%
Over 2.545%47%50%58%
Expected goals
xG for / match0.951.181.361.12
xG against / match1.591.421.431.72
xG difference-0.64-0.24-0.08-0.60
Finishing vs xG-0.11-0.23-0.28-0.07
xPts / match1.011.251.331.03
Points vs xPts-0.11-0.40-0.230.07
Game state
Scored first32%37%45%47%
PPG when scoring first2.251.711.821.89
PPG when conceding first0.050.000.380.25
Came back from behind5%0%30%20%
Leads held67%43%45%46%
Minutes leading18%17%21%20%
Minutes level48%52%53%56%
Minutes trailing34%30%26%24%
First goal (min)49514640
First goal conceded (min)37394448
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half62%61%58%55%
Goals conceded in 2nd half51%62%60%69%
Late goals for (76'+)0.240.370.180.16
Late goals against0.240.320.320.37
Style
Possession46%47%51%50%
Shots9.110.312.910.1
On target3.33.73.42.8
Shot conversion9%9%8%10%
Shots inside box61%62%63%64%
Big chances created1.61.92.21.8
Corners3.53.64.43.4
xG from set plays34%36%32%39%
Goals from headers19%22%10%5%
Pressure index6.98.113.18.9
Dominant minutes32.836.547.740.7
Pass accuracy78%78%84%83%
Fouls13.513.412.412.9
Cards2.082.112.292.42

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Cremonese

0–15'49
16–30'37
31–45'512
46–60'810
61–75'310
76–90'99

Fiorentina

0–15'48
16–30'76
31–45'66
46–60'1010
61–75'78
76–90'712

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Cremonese

No pressure profile yet.

Fiorentina · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: 10 min after conceding +0.33

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.174
Early press (0-15, level)+0.094

Game state

When ahead+0.082
When level+0.224
When behind+0.194
10 min after conceding+0.334
10 min after scoring+0.492

Situations

At home+0.192
Away+0.152
4+ days rest+0.174

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.422
As favourite+0.192

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.244
Conceded when ahead+0.202
Conceded late (76+)+0.192

Ahead vs level -0.14 · Behind vs level -0.03

Cremonese

Current: winless 1 · scoring 4 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-226 68%0.770.691.580.961.66
4-4-25 13%1.41.01.00.630.89
3-1-4-24 10%1.751.50.751.312.02
3-4-31 3%0.01.02.00.80.84
4-1-3-21 3%0.01.02.01.471.24

Fiorentina

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-315 40%1.81.270.931.151.44
3-5-28 21%0.381.01.881.711.41
3-5-1-13 8%0.00.332.670.972.24
3-4-2-13 8%0.670.671.01.061.22
4-1-4-13 8%0.670.671.01.421.41

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

4.2Home 22% P 21%3.4Draw 28% P 28%1.9Away 50% P 51%

Double Chance

1.8Cremonese or Draw 26% P 25%1.28Cremonese or Fiorentina 36% P 36%1.22Draw or Fiorentina 38% P 39%

Draw No Bet

2.751 34%1.42 66%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 50% P 49%1.9No 50% P 51%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 45%1.72Under 55% P 55%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58%2.2Under 42%
4.51.83Over 50%1.83Under 50%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 20–22.5% · away 50–52.5% · 274 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home21%22%15%-7.0
Draw28%27%27%+0.4
Away51%51%58%+6.6

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 52% · over 2.5 51%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes49%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,474 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.545%44%43%-1.2

Marco Di Bello

Career
216 matches · 16 seasons
Cards / match
4.83 (4.55 yellow · 0.19 red)
Fouls / match
26.6 · 4.9 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.36
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 67 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.94.49-0.8420
Fouls / match26.125.2+0.65
Fouls per card6.85.6+0.98 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.390.31+0.5268
Time added6.36.4-0.2427
First card
37' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.04

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-22 · Cremonese 20 230 24'7
2026-01-17 10 280 70'6
2026-01-07 10 310 88'6
2025-12-29 10 260 50'5
2025-12-06 30 290 44'5
2025-11-22 30 230 59'6
2025-11-08 20 241 70'9
2025-10-29 50 252 3'8
2025-09-27 · Cremonese 71 330 9'7
2025-05-25 20 261 63'5