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Serie A · Matchweek 30

Momentum

AC MilanTorino
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
30

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
Capacity
75,817
Surface
grass
Attendance
73,043

Teams

Coaches
Massimiliano Allegri · Roberto D'Aversa
Position
3 · 14
Formation
3-5-2 · 3-5-2

Referee

Francesco Fourneau

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
11.9° (feels 10.6°)
Wind
4.0
Humidity
57%

Where to watch · 286

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

AC Milan

DLWWL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 4 GA 3 · xG 8.03–4.64 · xPts 8.89

  • L A Lazio 0–1 xG 1.99–0.5 ITA SA
  • W H Inter 1–0 xG 0.92–1.18 ITA SA
  • W A Cremonese 2–0 xG 2.5–1.09 ITA SA
  • L H Parma 0–1 xG 1.93–0.84 ITA SA
  • D H Como 1–1 xG 0.68–1.04 ITA SA

Torino

LLWLW 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 8 GA 8 · xG 4.77–7.38 · xPts 5.11

  • W H Parma 4–1 xG 1.8–0.82 ITA SA
  • L A Napoli 1–2 xG 0.61–1.53 ITA SA
  • W H Lazio 2–0 xG 1.2–1.29 ITA SA
  • L A Genoa 0–3 xG 0.53–1.56 ITA SA
  • L H Bologna 1–2 xG 0.63–2.18 ITA SA

All meetings · 35 matches since 2006

AC Milan 1713 draws5 Torino

Goals 59–34 · 2.66 per match · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 49%

Last 10 · 10 matches

AC Milan 52 draws3 Torino

Goals 18–15 · 3.3 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Last 5 · 5 matches

AC Milan 31 draws1 Torino

Goals 11–9 · 4.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • W Torino 1–2 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W AC Milan 3–2 Torino ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Torino 2–3 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Torino 2–1 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D AC Milan 2–2 Torino ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Torino 3–1 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W AC Milan 4–1 Torino neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W AC Milan 1–0 Torino neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Torino 2–1 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Torino 0–0 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricAC Milan all · 38AC Milan at home · 19Torino all · 38Torino away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.841.681.180.89
W / D / L20 / 10 / 89 / 5 / 512 / 9 / 174 / 5 / 10
Goals for / match1.391.321.160.89
Goals against / match0.921.111.661.79
Clean sheets40%37%32%37%
Failed to score18%16%29%42%
Both teams scored47%53%50%37%
Over 2.545%53%63%58%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.591.841.221.07
xG against / match1.241.241.481.37
xG difference0.350.59-0.26-0.31
Finishing vs xG-0.20-0.52-0.06-0.17
xPts / match1.591.731.221.19
Points vs xPts0.25-0.05-0.04-0.29
Game state
Scored first58%53%40%37%
PPG when scoring first2.502.502.132.00
PPG when conceding first0.930.750.470.00
Came back from behind50%50%29%17%
Leads held77%75%71%57%
Minutes leading28%27%19%10%
Minutes level53%51%46%49%
Minutes trailing19%21%35%40%
First goal (min)46464448
First goal conceded (min)42382926
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half62%60%61%71%
Goals conceded in 2nd half51%52%51%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.370.320.320.37
Late goals against0.160.210.210.21
Style
Possession52%54%44%43%
Shots13.216.111.811.1
On target4.44.94.03.7
Shot conversion10%8%10%8%
Shots inside box69%68%62%59%
Big chances created2.62.62.01.6
Corners4.34.93.83.4
xG from set plays29%27%30%31%
Goals from headers13%16%23%24%
Pressure index15.218.49.17.4
Dominant minutes51.156.336.432.3
Pass accuracy87%88%79%80%
Fouls10.110.313.914.3
Cards1.821.951.922.05

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

AC Milan

0–15'55
16–30'37
31–45'125
46–60'136
61–75'66
76–90'146

Torino

0–15'45
16–30'713
31–45'613
46–60'812
61–75'712
76–90'128

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

AC Milan · 5 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.45) · stands out: as favourite +0.69

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.455
Early press (0-15, level)+0.485
Late push (76+, level)+0.022

Game state

When ahead-0.083
When level+0.495
When behind+0.712
10 min after conceding+0.404
10 min after scoring+0.564

Situations

At home+0.472
Away+0.443
4+ days rest+0.455

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.102
As favourite+0.693

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.175
Conceded when ahead+0.003
Conceded late (76+)-0.055

Ahead vs level -0.56 · Behind vs level +0.22

Torino · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.68

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.024
Early press (0-15, level)-0.184
Late push (76+, level)+0.302
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.093

Game state

When level+0.044
When behind-0.154
10 min after conceding-0.384
10 min after scoring+0.683

Situations

At home-0.192
Away+0.142
4+ days rest-0.024

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.192
v mid-tier opponents+0.142
As underdog-0.053

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.374
Conceded late (76+)+0.244

Ahead vs level +0.28 · Behind vs level -0.20

AC Milan

Current: winless 3 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-234 90%1.851.410.881.591.28
3-4-2-12 5%3.01.50.01.150.51
3-1-4-21 3%1.02.02.01.661.14
4-3-31 3%0.00.03.02.381.5

Torino

Current: winless 1 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-216 42%1.01.381.881.281.51
3-4-1-29 24%1.891.560.891.261.18
3-4-2-14 10%1.01.252.01.71.47
3-1-4-22 5%0.00.04.00.612.35
3-4-32 5%1.51.01.00.851.42

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -1.9h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.36Home 70% P 72%5.0Draw 19% P 19%8.5Away 11% P 9%

Double Chance

1.08AC Milan or Draw 44% P 45%1.16AC Milan or Torino 41% P 41%3.0Draw or Torino 16% P 14%

Draw No Bet

1.111 85%6.52 15%

Both Teams To Score

2.1Yes 44% P 43%1.66No 56% P 57%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 53%2.0Under 47% P 47%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

2.51.57Over 59%2.25Under 41%
3.52.0Over 46% P 41%1.72Under 54% P 59%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 70–72.5% · away 7.5–10% · 200 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home72%72%80%+8.5
Draw19%19%15%-4.1
Away9%9%5%-4.3

In those fixtures: 3.1 goals a game · BTTS 43% · over 2.5 62%

Both teams to score · yes 42.5–45% · 1,287 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes43%44%48%+4.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,940 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.553%54%54%+0.8

Francesco Fourneau

Career
67 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
5.06 (4.9 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
26.8 · 5.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.34
Cards to home side
43%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 51 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.514.49+0.0351
Fouls / match26.125.2+0.64
Fouls per card5.85.6-0.05 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.280.31-0.3942
Time added5.86.4-1.2710
First card
32' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
Cards to home side
43% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.29

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-28 10 270 70'8
2026-02-15 · Torino 40 240 20'6
2026-02-01 40 230 17'7
2026-01-17 20 210 53'6
2026-01-10 · Torino 30 310 25'7
2025-12-21 50 351 52'7
2025-10-03 50 261 34'9
2025-09-28 60 261 29'5
2025-09-13 40 330 23'11
2025-05-10 40 240 18'10