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Serie A · Matchweek 30

Momentum

RomaLecce
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
30

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Olimpico, Roma
Capacity
72,698
Surface
grass
Attendance
62,432

Teams

Coaches
Gian Gasperini · Eusebio Di Francesco
Position
6 · 18
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Juan Luca Sacchi

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
11.4° (feels 10.3°)
Wind
2.1
Humidity
65%

Where to watch · 286

  • Albania Tring Sport 3
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  • Spain DAZN
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  • São Tomé and Príncipe SuperSport Football Plus ROA · SuperSport GOtv LaLiga · SuperSport Laliga ROA · SuperSport MaXimo 1
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  • Tunisia STARZPLAY
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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Roma

DLDLL 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 9 GA 12 · xG 6.44–8.55 · xPts 5.75

  • L H Bologna 3–4 aet xG 2.24–1.63 UEFA EL
  • L A Como 1–2 xG 0.98–2.0 ITA SA
  • D A Bologna 1–1 xG 0.9–1.23 UEFA EL
  • L A Genoa 1–2 xG 0.57–2.63 ITA SA
  • D H Juventus 3–3 xG 1.76–1.05 ITA SA

Lecce

WLLWL 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 6 GA 8 · xG 4.61–8.84 · xPts 4.81

  • L A Napoli 1–2 xG 0.85–0.94 ITA SA
  • W H Cremonese 2–1 xG 1.78–1.11 ITA SA
  • L A Como 1–3 xG 0.21–2.43 ITA SA
  • L H Inter 0–2 xG 0.12–2.8 ITA SA
  • W A Cagliari 2–0 xG 1.66–1.56 ITA SA

All meetings · 19 matches since 2005

Roma 153 draws1 Lecce

Goals 41–15 · 2.95 per match · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 63%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Roma 82 draws0 Lecce

Goals 21–4 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Roma 50 draws0 Lecce

Goals 12–1 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Lecce 0–4 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Roma 1–0 Lecce ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Lecce 0–2 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Lecce 0–1 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Roma 4–1 Lecce ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Lecce 0–0 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Roma 2–1 Lecce ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Lecce 1–1 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Roma 2–1 Lecce ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Roma 4–0 Lecce ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricRoma all · 38Roma at home · 19Lecce all · 38Lecce away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.922.211.000.95
W / D / L23 / 4 / 1113 / 3 / 310 / 8 / 205 / 3 / 11
Goals for / match1.551.740.740.79
Goals against / match0.820.531.321.37
Clean sheets47%58%26%26%
Failed to score18%16%50%47%
Both teams scored34%26%37%37%
Over 2.537%32%37%32%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.481.570.890.71
xG against / match0.990.731.531.68
xG difference0.490.85-0.64-0.97
Finishing vs xG0.070.16-0.150.08
xPts / match1.701.911.010.81
Points vs xPts0.220.30-0.010.14
Game state
Scored first66%74%42%42%
PPG when scoring first2.722.862.002.00
PPG when conceding first0.380.400.060.00
Came back from behind27%40%9%0%
Leads held88%93%62%62%
Minutes leading40%41%20%17%
Minutes level44%46%53%55%
Minutes trailing16%12%28%28%
First goal (min)36423239
First goal conceded (min)46494242
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%58%43%53%
Goals conceded in 2nd half68%70%64%62%
Late goals for (76'+)0.240.320.160.21
Late goals against0.260.210.240.37
Style
Possession56%58%42%39%
Shots13.215.39.89.0
On target4.75.22.62.3
Shot conversion12%11%8%9%
Shots inside box74%75%58%54%
Big chances created2.22.41.31.2
Corners5.25.74.34.4
xG from set plays31%27%33%25%
Goals from headers20%27%29%27%
Pressure index18.621.07.25.7
Dominant minutes61.968.034.328.1
Pass accuracy83%85%74%73%
Fouls13.812.712.613.3
Cards1.891.631.871.84

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Roma

0–15'85
16–30'90
31–45'105
46–60'108
61–75'133
76–90'910

Lecce

0–15'82
16–30'510
31–45'36
46–60'29
61–75'414
76–90'69

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Roma · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.66) · stands out: when level +0.82

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.665
Early press (0-15, level)+0.385
Late push (76+, level)+0.042

Game state

When ahead+0.365
When level+0.825
10 min after conceding-0.312
10 min after scoring+0.545

Situations

At home+1.332
Away+0.173
4+ days rest+0.665

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.912
As favourite+0.665

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.195
Conceded when ahead-0.195
Conceded late (76+)-0.563

Ahead vs level -0.46 · Behind vs level -0.11

Lecce · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.31) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.43

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.314
Early press (0-15, level)-0.434

Game state

When ahead-0.342
When level-0.294
When behind-0.272
10 min after conceding-0.233
10 min after scoring-0.202

Situations

At home-0.372
Away-0.272
4+ days rest-0.314

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents-0.382
As underdog-0.233

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.804
Conceded when ahead+0.912
Conceded late (76+)+0.563

Ahead vs level -0.05 · Behind vs level +0.02

Roma

Current: unbeaten 12 · wins 1 · scoring 22 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-130 79%1.91.630.871.450.98
3-4-1-24 10%2.251.250.251.710.58
3-5-23 8%1.331.331.331.781.78
3-4-31 3%3.01.00.00.780.6

Lecce

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-122 58%1.140.821.230.971.44
4-3-313 34%0.770.621.310.731.65
4-1-4-12 5%1.50.51.51.421.31
3-5-1-11 3%0.01.03.00.212.43

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -1.4h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.44Home 66% P 64%4.2Draw 23% P 24%8.0Away 12% P 12%

Double Chance

1.08Roma or Draw 44% P 44%1.22Roma or Lecce 39% P 38%2.62Draw or Lecce 18% P 18%

Draw No Bet

1.121 84%6.02 16%

Both Teams To Score

2.05Yes 45% P 42%1.7No 55% P 58%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 44%1.9Under 50% P 56%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 34%4.7512 - 14 19%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.52.1Over 44% P 45%1.66Under 56% P 55%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 60–65% · away 10–15% · 848 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home64%63%64%+0.4
Draw24%23%23%+0.4
Away12%14%13%-0.8

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 48% · over 2.5 51%

Both teams to score · yes 40–42.5% · 664 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes42%41%41%-0.7

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,474 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.544%44%43%-1.2

Juan Luca Sacchi

Career
80 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
4.0 (3.86 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
26.1 · 6.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.24
Cards to home side
42%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 57 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.984.48-0.7227
Fouls / match25.625.1+0.30
Fouls per card6.55.6+0.70 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.230.31-0.7724
Time added6.66.4+0.3758
First card
35' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 29% in last 15'
Cards to home side
40% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-07 40 140 39'9
2026-02-14 50 261 10'8
2026-02-02 · Roma 90 350 7'7
2026-01-25 10 221 53'5
2026-01-06 · Roma · Lecce 40 300 5'5
2025-12-28 50 370 21'7
2025-12-12 · Lecce 30 230 33'8
2025-11-22 10 351 45'11
2025-11-03 20 260 46'5
2025-04-28 40 230 50'8