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Serie A · Matchweek 33

Momentum

VERAC Milan
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
33

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Verona
Capacity
39,045
Surface
grass
Attendance
21,338

Teams

Coaches
Paolo Sammarco · Massimiliano Allegri
Position
19 · 3
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-5-2

Referee

Daniele Chiffi

Weather

Conditions
moderate rain
Temperature
20.1° (feels 19.6°)
Wind
4.1
Humidity
56%

Where to watch · 286

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Hellas Verona

WLLLL 1W 0D 4L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 3 GA 7 · xG 5.61–4.38 · xPts 7.57

  • L A Torino 1–2 xG 1.15–0.87 ITA SA
  • L H Fiorentina 0–1 xG 1.18–0.38 ITA SA
  • L A Atalanta 0–1 xG 1.11–1.07 ITA SA
  • L H Genoa 0–2 xG 0.37–0.68 ITA SA
  • W A Bologna 2–1 xG 1.81–1.38 ITA SA

AC Milan

WLWLL 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 4 GA 7 · xG 7.61–6.67 · xPts 7.4

  • L H Udinese 0–3 xG 2.38–1.5 ITA SA
  • L A Napoli 0–1 xG 0.58–1.05 ITA SA
  • W H Torino 3–2 xG 1.73–2.45 ITA SA
  • L A Lazio 0–1 xG 1.99–0.5 ITA SA
  • W H Inter 1–0 xG 0.92–1.18 ITA SA

All meetings · 22 matches since 2013

Hellas Verona 34 draws15 AC Milan

Goals 21–40 · 2.77 per match · BTTS 59% · over 2.5 59%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Hellas Verona 00 draws10 AC Milan

Goals 6–21 · 2.7 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Hellas Verona 00 draws5 AC Milan

Goals 1–9 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L Hellas Verona 0–1 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L AC Milan 3–0 Hellas Verona ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L AC Milan 1–0 Hellas Verona ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Hellas Verona 0–1 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Hellas Verona 1–3 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L AC Milan 1–0 Hellas Verona neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L AC Milan 3–1 Hellas Verona neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Hellas Verona 1–2 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Hellas Verona 1–3 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L AC Milan 3–2 Hellas Verona neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricHellas Verona all · 38Hellas Verona at home · 19AC Milan all · 38AC Milan away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game0.550.421.842.00
W / D / L3 / 12 / 231 / 5 / 1320 / 10 / 811 / 5 / 3
Goals for / match0.660.631.391.47
Goals against / match1.611.470.920.74
Clean sheets16%16%40%42%
Failed to score53%58%18%21%
Both teams scored47%42%47%42%
Over 2.550%42%45%37%
Expected goals
xG for / match0.980.871.591.34
xG against / match1.291.061.241.24
xG difference-0.32-0.190.350.10
Finishing vs xG-0.32-0.24-0.200.13
xPts / match1.171.221.591.46
Points vs xPts-0.62-0.800.250.54
Game state
Scored first18%16%58%63%
PPG when scoring first1.291.332.502.50
PPG when conceding first0.240.080.931.17
Came back from behind15%7%50%50%
Leads held38%33%77%79%
Minutes leading9%8%28%29%
Minutes level58%62%53%55%
Minutes trailing33%30%19%16%
First goal (min)41384646
First goal conceded (min)40464246
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half40%42%62%64%
Goals conceded in 2nd half61%64%51%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.050.000.370.42
Late goals against0.500.630.160.11
Style
Possession40%43%52%50%
Shots11.110.913.210.4
On target3.73.94.43.8
Shot conversion6%6%10%14%
Shots inside box56%54%69%71%
Big chances created1.41.22.62.6
Corners3.94.84.33.6
xG from set plays26%20%29%32%
Goals from headers4%8%13%11%
Pressure index7.49.815.211.9
Dominant minutes32.140.051.146.0
Pass accuracy74%76%87%86%
Fouls15.814.910.110.0
Cards2.552.261.821.68

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Hellas Verona

0–15'18
16–30'76
31–45'710
46–60'39
61–75'59
76–90'219

AC Milan

0–15'55
16–30'37
31–45'125
46–60'136
61–75'66
76–90'146

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Hellas Verona

No pressure profile yet.

AC Milan · 5 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.45) · stands out: as favourite +0.69

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.455
Early press (0-15, level)+0.485
Late push (76+, level)+0.022

Game state

When ahead-0.083
When level+0.495
When behind+0.712
10 min after conceding+0.404
10 min after scoring+0.564

Situations

At home+0.472
Away+0.443
4+ days rest+0.455

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.102
As favourite+0.693

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.175
Conceded when ahead+0.003
Conceded late (76+)-0.055

Ahead vs level -0.56 · Behind vs level +0.22

Hellas Verona

Current: winless 10 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-226 68%0.50.771.771.031.21
3-5-1-14 10%0.50.251.250.61.85
3-4-2-14 10%0.250.251.750.631.06
5-3-22 5%2.01.51.01.361.83
3-1-4-22 5%0.50.00.51.371.23

AC Milan

Current: winless 3 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-234 90%1.851.410.881.591.28
3-4-2-12 5%3.01.50.01.150.51
4-3-31 3%0.00.03.02.381.5
3-1-4-21 3%1.02.02.01.661.14

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.0h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

6.5Home 15% P 14%4.1Draw 23% P 24%1.53Away 62% P 62%

Double Chance

2.37Verona or Draw 20%1.22Verona or AC Milan 38%1.11Draw or AC Milan 42%

Draw No Bet

5.01 19%1.162 81%

Both Teams To Score

2.0Yes 47%1.75No 53%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 48%1.8Under 53% P 52%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

2.51.57Over 59%2.25Under 41%
3.52.1Over 44% P 39%1.66Under 56% P 61%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 10–15% · away 60–65% · 334 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home14%14%14%+0.1
Draw24%23%22%-0.9
Away62%63%64%+0.8

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 51%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.548%49%50%+1.3

Daniele Chiffi

Career
140 matches · 14 seasons
Cards / match
4.09 (3.85 yellow · 0.19 red)
Fouls / match
24.4 · 5.9 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.26
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 70 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.934.49-0.8022
Fouls / match22.925.2-1.45
Fouls per card5.95.6+0.08 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.210.31-0.8815
Time added6.76.4+0.5871
First card
38' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 39% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.13

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-04 20 251 29'9
2026-02-22 20 190 37'7
2026-02-08 21 160 55'4
2026-01-24 30 220 51'6
2026-01-18 30 220 9'7
2026-01-03 40 260 37'8
2025-12-08 · AC Milan 30 231 19'9
2025-11-09 40 290 63'9
2025-11-06 40 281 52'9
2025-11-01 10 240 74'9