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Serie A · Matchweek 38

Momentum

BolognaInter
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
38

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna
Capacity
36,532
Surface
grass
Attendance
30,109

Teams

Coaches
Vincenzo Italiano · Cristian Chivu
Position
8 · 1
Formation
4-3-3 · 3-5-2

Referee

Kevin Bonacina

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
26.8° (feels 26.7°)
Wind
1.5
Humidity
39%

Where to watch · 286

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Bologna

LLDWW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 4 GA 6 · xG 4.57–5.38 · xPts 6.12

  • W A Atalanta 1–0 xG 0.84–0.89 ITA SA
  • W A Napoli 3–2 xG 1.32–1.03 ITA SA
  • D H Cagliari 0–0 xG 0.85–0.8 ITA SA
  • L H Roma 0–2 xG 0.71–1.4 ITA SA
  • L A Juventus 0–2 xG 0.86–1.26 ITA SA

Inter

WDWWD 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 11 GA 3 · xG 9.47–4.92 · xPts 9.93

  • D H Hellas Verona 1–1 xG 2.28–0.91 ITA SA
  • W A Lazio 3–0 xG 1.31–0.64 ITA SA
  • W H Parma 2–0 xG 1.98–0.41 ITA SA
  • D A Torino 2–2 xG 1.58–2.36 ITA SA
  • W H Cagliari 3–0 xG 2.33–0.59 ITA SA

All meetings · 34 matches since 2008

Bologna 78 draws19 Inter

Goals 36–65 · 2.97 per match · BTTS 65% · over 2.5 65%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Bologna 33 draws4 Inter

Goals 14–24 · 3.8 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Bologna 12 draws2 Inter

Goals 7–9 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • D Bologna 3–3 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Inter 3–1 Bologna ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Bologna 1–0 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Inter 2–2 Bologna ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Bologna 0–1 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Inter 2–2 Bologna ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Bologna 1–0 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Inter 6–1 Bologna neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Bologna 2–1 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Inter 6–1 Bologna neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricBologna all · 38Bologna at home · 19Inter all · 38Inter away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.471.162.292.21
W / D / L16 / 8 / 146 / 4 / 927 / 6 / 513 / 3 / 3
Goals for / match1.291.002.342.05
Goals against / match1.211.210.921.00
Clean sheets32%37%47%53%
Failed to score29%42%5%5%
Both teams scored45%32%47%42%
Over 2.545%37%55%47%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.321.431.941.64
xG against / match1.121.010.901.03
xG difference0.200.421.040.61
Finishing vs xG-0.03-0.430.400.41
xPts / match1.491.622.001.77
Points vs xPts-0.01-0.460.290.44
Game state
Scored first47%37%84%79%
PPG when scoring first2.332.292.532.60
PPG when conceding first0.670.401.000.75
Came back from behind30%18%38%40%
Leads held70%67%77%76%
Minutes leading26%16%52%50%
Minutes level54%59%39%37%
Minutes trailing20%25%10%12%
First goal (min)44512929
First goal conceded (min)46455044
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half57%63%58%54%
Goals conceded in 2nd half63%56%54%53%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.160.550.47
Late goals against0.240.160.320.26
Style
Possession55%56%60%60%
Shots12.914.717.116.0
On target3.83.86.05.2
Shot conversion10%7%14%13%
Shots inside box63%62%72%68%
Big chances created1.81.83.93.0
Corners4.55.26.35.3
xG from set plays30%34%28%26%
Goals from headers6%16%23%29%
Pressure index13.814.423.021.1
Dominant minutes54.055.966.161.9
Pass accuracy82%83%87%87%
Fouls13.112.713.113.1
Cards1.971.421.682.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Bologna

0–15'35
16–30'83
31–45'109
46–60'129
61–75'611
76–90'109

Inter

0–15'122
16–30'115
31–45'149
46–60'153
61–75'164
76–90'2112

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Bologna · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.21) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) +0.62

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.214
Early press (0-15, level)+0.624
Late push (76+, level)+0.202
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.234

Game state

When level+0.394
When behind-0.104
10 min after conceding+0.384

Situations

At home+0.092
Away+0.342
4+ days rest+0.214

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.342
v mid-tier opponents+0.092
As underdog+0.342

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.104
Conceded late (76+)-0.144

Behind vs level -0.49

Inter · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.71) · stands out: when behind +1.11

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.715
Early press (0-15, level)+0.205
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.202

Game state

When ahead+0.584
When level+0.455
When behind+1.113
10 min after conceding+0.514
10 min after scoring+0.425

Situations

At home+0.523
Away+0.962
4+ days rest+0.674

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.752
As favourite+0.674

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.365
Conceded when ahead-0.414
Conceded late (76+)-0.414

Congested vs rested +0.20 · Ahead vs level +0.13 · Behind vs level +0.66

Bologna

Current: winless 5 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-127 71%1.481.371.191.431.15
4-3-38 21%1.631.131.131.020.89
4-1-4-12 5%1.51.51.51.311.64
3-4-2-11 3%0.00.02.00.711.4

Inter

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 15 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-238 100%2.292.340.921.940.9

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.4Home 28% P 29%3.6Draw 27% P 27%2.1Away 45% P 44%

Double Chance

1.8Bologna or Draw 26%1.25Bologna or Inter Milan 37%1.28Draw or Inter Milan 37%

Draw No Bet

2.371 39%1.532 61%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 59%2.25No 41%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.66Over 57% P 55%2.2Under 43% P 45%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 12%2.756 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 33%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

2.52.0Over 46% P 48%1.72Under 54% P 52%
3.52.25Over 41% P 31%1.57Under 59% P 69%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 27.5–30% · away 42.5–45% · 505 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home29%29%23%-5.8
Draw27%28%27%-0.3
Away44%44%50%+6.1

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 57%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,940 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.555%54%54%+0.8

Kevin Bonacina

Career
17 matches · 3 seasons
Cards / match
3.41 (3.18 yellow · 0.12 red)
Fouls / match
25.8 · 7.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.18
Cards to home side
43%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 17 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.534.49-1.377
Fouls / match25.825.2+0.43
Fouls per card7.35.6+1.48 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.180.31-1.197
Time added6.56.4+0.1749
First card
27' on average
Card timing
25% in first 30' · 34% in last 15'
Cards to home side
42% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.1

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-05-03 · Inter 10 160 64'4
2026-04-27 40 310 41'5
2026-04-11 50 300 25'7
2026-03-15 · Bologna 30 270 24'11
2026-01-31 21 230 6'6
2026-01-08 40 280 2'5
2025-11-24 10 151 21'6
2025-11-02 · Bologna 51 310 35'9
2025-10-26 40 230 5'6
2025-09-21 70 350 7'10