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Serie A · Matchweek 38

Momentum

FiorentinaAtalanta
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
38

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze
Capacity
43,147
Surface
grass
Attendance
19,000

Teams

Coaches
Paolo Vanoli · Raffaele Palladino
Position
15 · 7
Formation
4-3-3 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Mario Perri

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
20.5° (feels 19.5°)
Wind
2.0
Humidity
36%

Where to watch · 286

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Fiorentina

DDLDW 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 3 GA 5 · xG 4.86–8.36 · xPts 4.94

  • W A Juventus 2–0 xG 0.65–2.15 ITA SA
  • D H Genoa 0–0 xG 1.06–0.73 ITA SA
  • L A Roma 0–4 xG 0.14–2.35 ITA SA
  • D H Sassuolo 0–0 xG 2.0–1.16 ITA SA
  • D A Lecce 1–1 xG 1.0–1.97 ITA SA

Atalanta

DLDWL 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 7 · xG 6.11–5.71 · xPts 7.0

  • L H Bologna 0–1 xG 0.89–0.84 ITA SA
  • W A AC Milan 3–2 xG 1.24–2.02 ITA SA
  • D H Genoa 0–0 xG 2.18–0.44 ITA SA
  • L A Cagliari 2–3 xG 1.13–1.27 ITA SA
  • D A Roma 1–1 xG 0.67–1.14 ITA SA

All meetings · 38 matches since 2006

Fiorentina 1811 draws9 Atalanta

Goals 62–48 · 2.89 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 55%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Fiorentina 52 draws3 Atalanta

Goals 14–13 · 2.7 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Fiorentina 21 draws2 Atalanta

Goals 7–8 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • D Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Atalanta 2–0 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Fiorentina 1–0 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Atalanta 3–2 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Atalanta 2–3 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Fiorentina 3–2 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Atalanta 1–0 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Fiorentina 1–0 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Atalanta 1–2 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricFiorentina all · 38Fiorentina at home · 19Atalanta all · 38Atalanta away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.111.111.551.37
W / D / L9 / 15 / 144 / 9 / 615 / 14 / 96 / 8 / 5
Goals for / match1.081.111.341.37
Goals against / match1.321.110.951.11
Clean sheets26%32%34%32%
Failed to score29%21%21%10%
Both teams scored58%63%53%63%
Over 2.550%42%37%37%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.361.591.711.46
xG against / match1.431.151.181.42
xG difference-0.080.450.530.04
Finishing vs xG-0.28-0.49-0.36-0.10
xPts / match1.331.631.711.44
Points vs xPts-0.23-0.53-0.16-0.07
Game state
Scored first45%42%50%53%
PPG when scoring first1.821.752.472.20
PPG when conceding first0.380.500.560.38
Came back from behind30%40%44%38%
Leads held45%44%75%60%
Minutes leading21%22%28%22%
Minutes level53%51%51%52%
Minutes trailing26%27%21%26%
First goal (min)46504657
First goal conceded (min)44404849
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%62%53%54%
Goals conceded in 2nd half60%48%50%43%
Late goals for (76'+)0.180.210.340.42
Late goals against0.320.260.240.32
Style
Possession51%52%55%54%
Shots12.915.714.812.5
On target3.44.14.64.2
Shot conversion8%7%9%11%
Shots inside box63%62%66%66%
Big chances created2.22.62.52.2
Corners4.45.55.74.5
xG from set plays32%27%25%21%
Goals from headers10%14%14%4%
Pressure index13.117.315.912.7
Dominant minutes47.754.755.449.1
Pass accuracy84%85%84%83%
Fouls12.411.911.812.3
Cards2.292.161.682.11

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Fiorentina

0–15'48
16–30'76
31–45'66
46–60'1010
61–75'78
76–90'712

Atalanta

0–15'83
16–30'58
31–45'117
46–60'84
61–75'65
76–90'139

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Fiorentina · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: 10 min after conceding +0.33

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.174
Early press (0-15, level)+0.094

Game state

When ahead+0.082
When level+0.224
When behind+0.194
10 min after conceding+0.334
10 min after scoring+0.492

Situations

At home+0.192
Away+0.152
4+ days rest+0.174

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.422
As favourite+0.192

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.244
Conceded when ahead+0.202
Conceded late (76+)+0.192

Ahead vs level -0.14 · Behind vs level -0.03

Atalanta · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.06) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.46

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.066
Early press (0-15, level)-0.016
Late push (76+, level)-0.393
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.582

Game state

When ahead-0.174
When level-0.086
When behind+0.312
10 min after conceding-0.463
10 min after scoring+0.205

Situations

At home+0.024
Away-0.212
4+ days rest-0.055

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.023
As favourite+0.025

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.466
Conceded when ahead+0.404
Conceded late (76+)+0.076

Congested vs rested -0.08 · Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level +0.39

Fiorentina

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-315 40%1.81.270.931.151.44
3-5-28 21%0.381.01.881.711.41
3-5-1-13 8%0.00.332.670.972.24
3-4-2-13 8%0.670.671.01.061.22
4-1-4-13 8%0.670.671.01.421.41

Atalanta

Current: winless 2 · scoring 5 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-134 90%1.651.410.911.711.2
3-4-1-23 8%0.670.671.331.640.91
4-3-31 3%1.01.01.01.921.05

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.1Home 31% P 31%3.6Draw 26% P 27%2.2Away 43% P 43%

Double Chance

1.53Fiorentina or Draw 30%1.28Fiorentina or Atalanta 36%1.4Draw or Atalanta 33%

Draw No Bet

2.11 44%1.662 56%

Both Teams To Score

1.53Yes 61%2.37No 39%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.66Over 57% P 59%2.2Under 43% P 41%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

2.51.57Over 59% P 63%2.25Under 41% P 37%
3.52.0Over 46% P 40%1.72Under 54% P 60%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 30–32.5% · away 42.5–45% · 201 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home31%31%31%-0.1
Draw27%26%26%+0.2
Away43%43%43%-0.1

In those fixtures: 3.1 goals a game · BTTS 65% · over 2.5 64%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.559%59%60%+0.8

Mario Perri

No career statistics.

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 2 matches)

Fewer than 10 matches with card data in this league — averages only: 4.0 cards, 27.0 fouls per match.