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Serie A · Matchweek 38

Momentum

LecceGenoa
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
38

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce
Capacity
40,800
Surface
grass
Attendance
27,825

Teams

Coaches
Eusebio Di Francesco · Daniele De Rossi
Position
17 · 15
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-5-1-1

Referee

Daniele Doveri

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
19.0° (feels 18.8°)
Wind
2.1
Humidity
72%

Where to watch · 286

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Lecce

DDWLW 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 6 GA 5 · xG 6.23–7.73 · xPts 6.21

  • W A Sassuolo 3–2 xG 0.88–1.99 ITA SA
  • L H Juventus 0–1 xG 1.12–2.09 ITA SA
  • W A Pisa 2–1 xG 1.06–2.29 ITA SA
  • D A Hellas Verona 0–0 xG 1.2–0.37 ITA SA
  • D H Fiorentina 1–1 xG 1.97–1.0 ITA SA

Genoa

WLDDL 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 3 GA 5 · xG 5.12–6.69 · xPts 5.8

  • L H AC Milan 1–2 xG 1.55–1.79 ITA SA
  • D A Fiorentina 0–0 xG 0.73–1.06 ITA SA
  • D A Atalanta 0–0 xG 0.44–2.18 ITA SA
  • L H Como 0–2 xG 0.6–0.79 ITA SA
  • W A Pisa 2–1 xG 1.79–0.87 ITA SA

All meetings · 14 matches since 2009

Lecce 25 draws7 Genoa

Goals 13–23 · 2.57 per match · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 57%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Lecce 25 draws3 Genoa

Goals 9–10 · 1.9 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Lecce 12 draws2 Genoa

Goals 3–4 · 1.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Lecce 1–0 Genoa ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Genoa 0–0 Lecce ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Genoa 2–1 Lecce ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Lecce 0–0 Genoa ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Genoa 2–1 Lecce ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Lecce 1–0 Genoa ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Genoa 2–1 Lecce ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Lecce 2–2 Genoa ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Lecce 2–2 Genoa ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Genoa 0–0 Lecce neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricLecce all · 38Lecce at home · 19Genoa all · 38Genoa away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.001.051.081.00
W / D / L10 / 8 / 205 / 5 / 910 / 11 / 174 / 7 / 8
Goals for / match0.740.681.081.00
Goals against / match1.321.261.341.32
Clean sheets26%26%24%26%
Failed to score50%53%40%37%
Both teams scored37%37%53%58%
Over 2.537%42%53%47%
Expected goals
xG for / match0.891.071.221.18
xG against / match1.531.381.481.64
xG difference-0.64-0.31-0.26-0.46
Finishing vs xG-0.15-0.39-0.14-0.18
xPts / match1.011.211.221.10
Points vs xPts-0.01-0.16-0.14-0.10
Game state
Scored first42%42%40%42%
PPG when scoring first2.002.001.671.38
PPG when conceding first0.060.130.590.57
Came back from behind9%18%26%27%
Leads held62%62%56%44%
Minutes leading20%22%17%18%
Minutes level53%51%54%56%
Minutes trailing28%26%29%27%
First goal (min)32244146
First goal conceded (min)42413941
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half43%31%61%58%
Goals conceded in 2nd half64%67%55%56%
Late goals for (76'+)0.160.110.340.32
Late goals against0.240.110.210.21
Style
Possession42%44%49%46%
Shots9.810.611.410.8
On target2.62.83.83.6
Shot conversion8%6%9%9%
Shots inside box58%61%62%65%
Big chances created1.31.52.02.2
Corners4.34.23.73.7
xG from set plays33%39%43%40%
Goals from headers29%31%10%10%
Pressure index7.28.710.68.2
Dominant minutes34.340.542.232.9
Pass accuracy74%76%80%80%
Fouls12.612.012.412.2
Cards1.871.891.761.68

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Lecce

0–15'82
16–30'510
31–45'36
46–60'29
61–75'414
76–90'69

Genoa

0–15'58
16–30'58
31–45'67
46–60'410
61–75'810
76–90'138

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Lecce · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.31) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.43

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.314
Early press (0-15, level)-0.434

Game state

When ahead-0.342
When level-0.294
When behind-0.272
10 min after conceding-0.233
10 min after scoring-0.202

Situations

At home-0.372
Away-0.272
4+ days rest-0.314

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents-0.382
As underdog-0.233

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.804
Conceded when ahead+0.912
Conceded late (76+)+0.563

Ahead vs level -0.05 · Behind vs level +0.02

Genoa · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.14) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.32

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.144
Early press (0-15, level)+0.094
Late push (76+, level)-0.672
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.323

Game state

When level-0.174
When behind-0.084
10 min after conceding-0.234
10 min after scoring-0.662

Situations

At home-0.083
4+ days rest-0.144

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.202
Evenly matched-0.082
As underdog-0.202

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.204
Conceded late (76+)+0.444

Ahead vs level -0.48 · Behind vs level +0.09

Lecce

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-122 58%1.140.821.230.971.44
4-3-313 34%0.770.621.310.731.65
4-1-4-12 5%1.50.51.51.421.31
3-5-1-11 3%0.01.03.00.212.43

Genoa

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 9 · scoring 2 · conceding 6

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-218 47%1.441.671.441.131.43
3-4-2-19 24%1.110.560.891.391.33
4-2-3-17 18%0.290.431.571.111.74
3-4-1-21 3%3.02.01.01.790.87
3-5-1-11 3%0.00.01.00.891.36

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.9Home 50% P 50%3.25Draw 29% P 30%4.5Away 21% P 21%

Double Chance

1.18Lecce or Draw 40%1.3Lecce or Genoa 36%1.9Draw or Genoa 25%

Draw No Bet

1.331 71%3.252 29%

Both Teams To Score

2.1Yes 44%1.66No 56%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.37Over 40% P 36%1.57Under 60% P 64%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 34%4.7512 - 14 19%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.52.2Over 42% P 42%1.61Under 58% P 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 20–22.5% · 338 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home50%49%47%-2.2
Draw30%29%33%+3.5
Away21%22%20%-1.3

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 46%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 35–37.5% · 819 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.536%36%41%+4.2

Daniele Doveri

Career
267 matches · 18 seasons
Cards / match
4.48 (4.25 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
24.9 · 4.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.32
Cards to home side
49%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 83 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.74.48-1.1210
Fouls / match24.925.1-0.15
Fouls per card7.05.6+1.13 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.230.31-0.7627
Time added6.76.4+0.5871
First card
41' on average
Card timing
10% in first 30' · 40% in last 15'
Cards to home side
51% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.15

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-05-01 · Lecce 60 280 43'6
2026-04-24 18 5
2026-04-11 20 260 4'7
2026-04-06 20 130 12'6
2026-03-08 40 200 65'12
2026-02-21 10 250 73'9
2026-02-06 30 290 32'7
2026-01-18 30 270 38'7
2026-01-11 20 231 71'7
2025-12-27 30 270 31'7