Rating 7.33 (95th pct) · G+A 2 + 3 (9% of team goals) · 82% of minutes
Team 1.97 ppg with (32) · 1.17 without (6)
Serie A · Matchweek 38
Momentum
– AC MilanCagliari –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
- No events yet.
Stats
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Season context
| AC Milan | at home | Stat | league | away | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.8 #8 | – | Ball possession | 50.0 | – | 45.6 #15 |
| 13.2 #5 | – | Shots total | 12.3 | – | 10.9 #15 |
| 4.4 #7 | – | Shots on target | 4.0 | – | 3.5 #15 |
| 4.3 #11 | – | Corners | 4.4 | – | 3.8 #15 |
| 10.1 #20 | – | Fouls | 12.7 | – | 13.8 #3 |
| 1.9 #3 | – | Offsides | 1.6 | – | 1.6 #12 |
| 14.5 #13 | – | Tackles | 15.2 | – | 16.1 #6 |
| 99.2 #7 | – | Attacks | 92.8 | – | 76.0 #20 |
| 47.0 #7 | – | Dangerous attacks | 42.4 | – | 30.9 #20 |
| 483.7 #8 | – | Passes | 431.5 | – | 394.2 #12 |
| 1.7 #16 | – | Yellowcards | 1.9 | – | 2.2 #4 |
| 0.0 #13 | – | Redcards | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1.0 #6 | – | Assists | 0.8 | – | 0.8 #9 |
| – #7 | – | Btts | 45.3 | – | – #5 |
| – #5 | – | Cleansheet | 32.1 | – | – #17 |
| – #10 | – | Draw | 26.1 | – | – #10 |
| 1.6 #5 | – | Expected goals | 1.3 | – | 1.0 #16 |
| -0.2 #15 | – | Expected goals difference | -0.1 | – | 0.0 #7 |
| – #18 | – | Failed to score | 32.1 | – | – #8 |
| 1.4 #6 | 1.3 | Goals | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 #15 |
| 0.9 #16 | 1.1 | Goals conceded | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 #5 |
| 0.2 #13 | – | Injury time goals | 0.2 | – | 0.3 #4 |
| 6.6 #19 | – | Interceptions | 7.9 | – | 8.8 #4 |
| – #16 | – | Lost | 37.0 | – | – #5 |
| 0.2 #1 | – | Penalties scored | 0.1 | – | 0.1 #16 |
| 6.9 #4 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.8 #13 |
| 3.3 #10 | – | Shots blocked | 3.4 | – | 2.9 #16 |
| 9.2 #6 | – | Shots insidebox | 7.9 | – | 6.7 #15 |
| 5.6 #7 | – | Shots off target | 5.0 | – | 4.8 #10 |
| 4.1 #16 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.4 | – | 4.2 #14 |
| – #4 | – | Win | 37.0 | – | – #13 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 20.
League this season · 2025/2026
- Played
- 380 of 380
- Goals / match
- 2.43 (home 1.28 · away 1.15)
- Home / draw / away
- 39% · 26% · 35%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 45% · 46%
- Cards / match
- 4.11 (reds 0.16)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
AC Milan · 2025/2026 · Serie A
Rating 7.25 (92th pct) · G+A 6 + 4 (19% of team goals) · 75% of minutes
Team 2.0 ppg with (28) · 1.4 without (10)
Rating 7.13 (91th pct) · G+A 3 + 3 (11% of team goals) · 82% of minutes
Team 1.73 ppg with (33) · 2.6 without (5)
Cagliari · 2025/2026 · Serie A
Rating 6.91 (73th pct) · G+A 2 + 1 (8% of team goals) · 63% of minutes
Team 1.35 ppg with (26) · 0.67 without (12)
Rating 6.83 (56th pct) · G+A 0 + 3 (8% of team goals) · 81% of minutes
Team 1.15 ppg with (33) · 1.0 without (5)
Rating 6.69 (19th pct) · G+A 1 + 2 (8% of team goals) · 89% of minutes
Team 1.09 ppg with (33) · 1.4 without (5)
Absences
Cagliari
- injury Riyad Idrissi #10 key player defender · Cruciate Ligament Tear · 13 missed · until 2026-09-01
- suspension Mateusz Wieteska defender · No Eligibility · 3 missed · until 2026-05-25
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 38
Venue
- Stadium
- Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
- Capacity
- 75,817
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 74,593
Teams
- Coaches
- Massimiliano Allegri · Fabio Pisacane
- Position
- 3 · 16
- Formation
- 3-5-2 · 3-5-2
Referee
Marco Guida
Weather
- Conditions
- clear sky
- Temperature
- 23.5° (feels 23.6°)
- Wind
- 0.5
- Humidity
- 65%
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2025/2026
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter |
38 | 27 | 6 | 5 | 89 | 35 | 54 | 87 | DWWDD |
| 2 |  Napoli |
38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 58 | 36 | 22 | 76 | WDLWW |
| 3 |  Roma |
38 | 23 | 4 | 11 | 59 | 31 | 28 | 73 | WWWWW |
| 4 |  Como |
38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 65 | 29 | 36 | 71 | WDWWW |
| 5 |  AC Milan |
38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 70 | DLLWL |
| 6 |  Juventus |
38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 61 | 34 | 27 | 69 | DDWLD |
| 7 |  Atalanta |
38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 51 | 36 | 15 | 59 | LDWLD |
| 8 |  Bologna |
38 | 16 | 8 | 14 | 49 | 46 | 3 | 56 | LDWWD |
| 9 |  Lazio |
38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 41 | 40 | 1 | 54 | DWLLW |
| 10 |  Udinese |
38 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 50 | DWWLL |
| 11 |  Sassuolo |
38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 49 | DWLLL |
| 12 |  Torino |
38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 44 | 63 | -19 | 45 | DLWLD |
| 13 |  Parma |
38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 45 | WLLLW |
| 14 |  Cagliari |
38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 43 | WDLWW |
| 15 |  Fiorentina |
38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 42 | DLDWD |
| 16 |  Genoa |
38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 41 | LDDLL |
| 17 |  Lecce |
38 | 10 | 8 | 20 | 28 | 50 | -22 | 38 | DWLWW |
| 18 |  Cremonese |
38 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 32 | 57 | -25 | 34 | LLWWL |
| 19 |  Hellas Verona |
38 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 25 | 61 | -36 | 21 | DDLDL |
| 20 |  Pisa |
38 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 26 | 71 | -45 | 18 | LLLLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter |
19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 50 | 16 | 34 | 45 | DWWDD |
| 2 | Napoli |
19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 33 | 18 | 15 | 43 | WDLWW |
| 3 | Roma |
19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 10 | 23 | 42 | WWWWW |
| 4 | Juventus |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 37 | DDWLD |
| 5 | Como |
19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 35 | 15 | 20 | 36 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Atalanta |
19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 33 | LDWLD |
| 7 | AC Milan |
19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 32 | DLLWL |
| 8 | Lazio |
19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 30 | DWLLW |
| 9 | Sassuolo |
19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 29 | DWLLL |
| 10 | Torino |
19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 28 | DLWLD |
| 11 | Cagliari |
19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 25 | WDLWW |
| 12 | Udinese |
19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 23 | DWWLL |
| 13 | Genoa |
19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 22 | LDDLL |
| 14 | Bologna |
19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 22 | LDWWD |
| 15 | Fiorentina |
19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 21 | DLDWD |
| 16 | Parma |
19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 21 | WLLLW |
| 17 | Lecce |
19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 20 | DWLWW |
| 18 | Cremonese |
19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 16 | LLWWL |
| 19 | Pisa |
19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 10 | LLLLL |
| 20 | Hellas Verona |
19 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 28 | -16 | 8 | DDLDL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter |
19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 19 | 20 | 42 | DWWDD |
| 2 | AC Milan |
19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 38 | DLLWL |
| 3 | Como |
19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 14 | 16 | 35 | WDWWW |
| 4 | Bologna |
19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 34 | LDWWD |
| 5 | Napoli |
19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 33 | WDLWW |
| 6 | Juventus |
19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 32 | DDWLD |
| 7 | Roma |
19 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 31 | WWWWW |
| 8 | Udinese |
19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 27 | DWWLL |
| 9 | Atalanta |
19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 26 | LDWLD |
| 10 | Lazio |
19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 24 | DWLLW |
| 11 | Parma |
19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 24 | WLLLW |
| 12 | Fiorentina |
19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 21 | DLDWD |
| 13 | Sassuolo |
19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 20 | DWLLL |
| 14 | Genoa |
19 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 19 | LDDLL |
| 15 | Lecce |
19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 18 | DWLWW |
| 16 | Cagliari |
19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 30 | -12 | 18 | WDLWW |
| 17 | Cremonese |
19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 28 | -14 | 18 | LLWWL |
| 18 | Torino |
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 34 | -17 | 17 | DLWLD |
| 19 | Hellas Verona |
19 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 33 | -20 | 13 | DDLDL |
| 20 | Pisa |
19 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 45 | -28 | 8 | LLLLL |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Europa League
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
- Relegation
AC Milan
WDLLW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 6 · xG 5.32–6.31 · xPts 6.13
- W
A
Genoa
2–1
xG 1.79–1.55
ITA SA
- L
H
Atalanta
2–3
xG 2.02–1.24
ITA SA
- L
A
Sassuolo
0–2
xG 0.37–2.2
ITA SA
- D
H
Juventus
0–0
xG 0.58–0.51
ITA SA
- W
A
Hellas Verona
1–0
xG 0.57–0.8
ITA SA
WLWLLWDLLW 4W 1D 5L · 13 pts (1.3 ppg) · GF 9 GA 13 · xG 12.93–12.99 · xPts 13.53
- W
A
Genoa
2–1
xG 1.79–1.55
ITA SA
- L
H
Atalanta
2–3
xG 2.02–1.24
ITA SA
- L
A
Sassuolo
0–2
xG 0.37–2.2
ITA SA
- D
H
Juventus
0–0
xG 0.58–0.51
ITA SA
- W
A
Hellas Verona
1–0
xG 0.57–0.8
ITA SA
- L
H
Udinese
0–3
xG 2.38–1.5
ITA SA
- L
A
Napoli
0–1
xG 0.58–1.05
ITA SA
- W
H
Torino
3–2
xG 1.73–2.45
ITA SA
- L
A
Lazio
0–1
xG 1.99–0.5
ITA SA
- W
H
Inter
1–0
xG 0.92–1.18
ITA SA
Cagliari
LWDLW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 8 · xG 5.44–7.32 · xPts 5.75
- W
H
Torino
2–1
xG 1.28–1.11
ITA SA
- L
H
Udinese
0–2
xG 1.49–1.9
ITA SA
- D
A
Bologna
0–0
xG 0.8–0.85
ITA SA
- W
H
Atalanta
3–2
xG 1.27–1.13
ITA SA
- L
A
Inter
0–3
xG 0.59–2.33
ITA SA
LLLLWLWDLW 3W 1D 6L · 10 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 9 GA 16 · xG 10.62–13.26 · xPts 12.3
- W
H
Torino
2–1
xG 1.28–1.11
ITA SA
- L
H
Udinese
0–2
xG 1.49–1.9
ITA SA
- D
A
Bologna
0–0
xG 0.8–0.85
ITA SA
- W
H
Atalanta
3–2
xG 1.27–1.13
ITA SA
- L
A
Inter
0–3
xG 0.59–2.33
ITA SA
- W
H
Cremonese
1–0
xG 1.15–0.35
ITA SA
- L
A
Sassuolo
1–2
xG 1.57–0.64
ITA SA
- L
H
Napoli
0–1
xG 0.54–1.75
ITA SA
- L
A
Pisa
1–3
xG 1.25–2.4
ITA SA
- L
H
Como
1–2
xG 0.67–0.81
ITA SA
All meetings · 38 matches since 2005
Goals 79–30 · 2.87 per match · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 55%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 21–9 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 50%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 11–7 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%
Recent meetings
- L AC Milan 1–2 Cagliari ITA SA · Regular Season
- W Cagliari 0–1 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
- D AC Milan 1–1 Cagliari ITA SA · Regular Season
- D Cagliari 3–3 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
- W AC Milan 5–1 Cagliari neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
- W Cagliari 1–3 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
- W Cagliari 0–1 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
- W AC Milan 4–1 Cagliari neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
- D AC Milan 0–0 Cagliari neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
- W Cagliari 0–2 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
| Metric | AC Milan all · 38 | AC Milan at home · 19 | Cagliari all · 38 | Cagliari away · 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 38 | 19 | 38 | 19 |
| Points per game | 1.84 | 1.68 | 1.13 | 0.95 |
| W / D / L | 20 / 10 / 8 | 9 / 5 / 5 | 11 / 10 / 17 | 4 / 6 / 9 |
| Goals for / match | 1.39 | 1.32 | 1.05 | 0.95 |
| Goals against / match | 0.92 | 1.11 | 1.39 | 1.58 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 37% | 21% | 10% |
| Failed to score | 18% | 16% | 37% | 37% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 53% | 50% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 53% | 50% | 63% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.59 | 1.84 | 1.02 | 1.08 |
| xG against / match | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.40 | 1.56 |
| xG difference | 0.35 | 0.59 | -0.38 | -0.49 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.20 | -0.52 | 0.03 | -0.13 |
| xPts / match | 1.59 | 1.73 | 1.13 | 1.08 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.25 | -0.05 | 0.00 | -0.13 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 58% | 53% | 29% | 26% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.09 | 1.00 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.92 |
| Came back from behind | 50% | 50% | 35% | 36% |
| Leads held | 77% | 75% | 65% | 50% |
| Minutes leading | 28% | 27% | 16% | 12% |
| Minutes level | 53% | 51% | 51% | 50% |
| Minutes trailing | 19% | 21% | 32% | 37% |
| First goal (min) | 46 | 46 | 49 | 45 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 42 | 38 | 37 | 36 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 62% | 60% | 60% | 61% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 51% | 52% | 58% | 60% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.37 | 0.32 | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| Late goals against | 0.16 | 0.21 | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 52% | 54% | 46% | 46% |
| Shots | 13.2 | 16.1 | 10.9 | 11.1 |
| On target | 4.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 8% | 10% | 8% |
| Shots inside box | 69% | 68% | 61% | 60% |
| Big chances created | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 3.4 |
| xG from set plays | 29% | 27% | 37% | 31% |
| Goals from headers | 13% | 16% | 30% | 11% |
| Pressure index | 15.2 | 18.4 | 8.5 | 7.7 |
| Dominant minutes | 51.1 | 56.3 | 36.8 | 33.5 |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | 88% | 80% | 81% |
| Fouls | 10.1 | 10.3 | 13.8 | 13.7 |
| Cards | 1.82 | 1.95 | 2.24 | 2.58 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
AC Milan
0–15'55
16–30'37
31–45'125
46–60'136
61–75'66
76–90'146
Cagliari
0–15'29
16–30'46
31–45'107
46–60'710
61–75'97
76–90'814
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
AC Milan · 5 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.45) · stands out: as favourite +0.68
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.455
Early press (0-15, level)+0.485
Late push (76+, level)+0.022
Game state
When ahead-0.083
When level+0.485
When behind+0.712
10 min after conceding+0.404
10 min after scoring+0.574
Situations
At home+0.472
Away+0.433
4+ days rest+0.455
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.102
As favourite+0.683
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.175
Conceded when ahead-0.003
Conceded late (76+)-0.055
Ahead vs level -0.56 · Behind vs level +0.23
Cagliari · 4 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.61
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.024
Early press (0-15, level)-0.334
Game state
When ahead+0.263
When level-0.024
10 min after conceding-0.552
10 min after scoring+0.613
Situations
At home-0.012
Away-0.032
4+ days rest-0.024
Opposition
As underdog-0.452
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.304
Conceded when ahead-0.083
Conceded late (76+)+0.064
Ahead vs level +0.28 · Behind vs level -0.47
AC Milan
Current: winless 3 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-5-2 | 34 90% | 1.85 | 1.41 | 0.88 | 1.59 | 1.28 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 2 5% | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.15 | 0.51 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.38 | 1.5 |
| 3-1-4-2 | 1 3% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.66 | 1.14 |
Cagliari
Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 2 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-5-2 | 18 47% | 1.06 | 1.17 | 1.44 | 0.94 | 1.45 |
| 4-3-2-1 | 3 8% | 2.33 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.27 | 1.87 |
| 3-5-1-1 | 3 8% | 2.0 | 1.33 | 1.0 | 0.77 | 1.91 |
| 4-5-1 | 3 8% | 0.67 | 0.0 | 0.67 | 0.6 | 0.86 |
| 4-4-2 | 2 5% | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.98 | 1.63 |
| Metric | AC Milan all · 10 | AC Milan at home · 10 | Cagliari all · 10 | Cagliari away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | 1.90 | 1.40 |
| W / D / L | 3 / 3 / 4 | 3 / 2 / 5 | 6 / 1 / 3 | 4 / 2 / 4 |
| Goals for / match | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 50% | 60% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.42 | 1.59 | 1.20 | 1.11 |
| xG against / match | 1.41 | 1.32 | 1.59 | 1.55 |
| xG difference | 0.01 | 0.27 | -0.39 | -0.44 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.22 | -0.59 | -0.10 | -0.11 |
| xPts / match | 1.36 | 1.54 | 1.21 | 1.10 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.16 | -0.44 | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 50% | 40% | 40% | 50% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.00 | 2.25 | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.25 | 0.20 | 1.20 | 0.75 |
| Came back from behind | 20% | 17% | 40% | 20% |
| Leads held | 60% | 75% | 100% | 67% |
| Minutes leading | 14% | 15% | 32% | 22% |
| Minutes level | 49% | 52% | 49% | 55% |
| Minutes trailing | 37% | 33% | 19% | 24% |
| First goal (min) | 58 | 49 | 31 | 44 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 40 | 32 | 34 | 42 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 92% | 70% | 36% | 60% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 50% | 43% | 46% | 71% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.40 | 0.30 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Late goals against | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 53% | 56% | 44% | 47% |
| Shots | 13.0 | 15.2 | 13.6 | 11.1 |
| On target | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| Shot conversion | 9% | 7% | 8% | 9% |
| Shots inside box | 65% | 64% | 62% | 63% |
| Big chances created | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Corners | 3.7 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.4 |
| xG from set plays | 30% | 21% | 42% | 39% |
| Goals from headers | 8% | 10% | 40% | 22% |
| Pressure index | 14.4 | 15.9 | 12.2 | 9.4 |
| Dominant minutes | 53.8 | 55.7 | 44.8 | 39.9 |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | 89% | 82% | 83% |
| Fouls | 11.7 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 12.1 |
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | 1.20 | 2.40 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
AC Milan
0–15'13
16–30'03
31–45'01
46–60'14
61–75'60
76–90'43
Cagliari
0–15'22
16–30'30
31–45'24
46–60'23
61–75'10
76–90'12
AC Milan
Current: winless 3 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 5 50% | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.53 | 1.21 |
| 3-5-2 | 5 50% | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.61 |
Cagliari
Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 2 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-2-1 | 2 20% | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.21 | 0.94 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 2 20% | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 2.23 |
| 3-5-2 | 2 20% | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.56 | 2.05 |
| 5-3-2 | 2 20% | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.38 | 1.51 |
| 4-4-1-1 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.12 | 1.58 |
| Metric | AC Milan all · 40 | AC Milan at home · 19 | Cagliari all · 39 | Cagliari away · 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 40 | 19 | 39 | 20 |
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.68 | 1.23 | 1.20 |
| W / D / L | 20 / 12 / 8 | 9 / 5 / 5 | 13 / 9 / 17 | 6 / 6 / 8 |
| Goals for / match | 1.40 | 1.32 | 1.05 | 1.05 |
| Goals against / match | 0.97 | 1.11 | 1.36 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 37% | 23% | 15% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 21% | 36% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 47% | 49% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 47% | 51% | 65% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.58 | 1.85 | 1.02 | 1.12 |
| xG against / match | 1.30 | 1.31 | 1.42 | 1.51 |
| xG difference | 0.28 | 0.54 | -0.40 | -0.39 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.18 | -0.53 | 0.03 | -0.07 |
| xPts / match | 1.54 | 1.70 | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.26 | -0.01 | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 58% | 53% | 33% | 35% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.43 | 2.50 | 2.23 | 1.57 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| Came back from behind | 53% | 50% | 32% | 38% |
| Leads held | 74% | 75% | 68% | 60% |
| Minutes leading | 27% | 27% | 18% | 15% |
| Minutes level | 53% | 50% | 49% | 50% |
| Minutes trailing | 20% | 23% | 33% | 35% |
| First goal (min) | 47 | 47 | 47 | 46 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 44 | 37 | 33 | 33 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 66% | 64% | 58% | 62% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 51% | 52% | 55% | 57% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.35 | 0.37 | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| Late goals against | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 53% | 55% | 45% | 46% |
| Shots | 13.0 | 15.8 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| On target | 4.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 3.8 |
| Shot conversion | 11% | 8% | 10% | 10% |
| Shots inside box | 69% | 67% | 61% | 62% |
| Big chances created | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Corners | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.4 |
| xG from set plays | 29% | 28% | 36% | 33% |
| Goals from headers | 9% | 12% | 28% | 10% |
| Pressure index | 15.8 | 19.5 | 9.2 | 8.2 |
| Dominant minutes | 51.8 | 58.2 | 38.0 | 35.2 |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | 88% | 80% | 82% |
| Fouls | 10.1 | 10.0 | 13.4 | 13.8 |
| Cards | 1.85 | 1.84 | 2.10 | 2.50 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
AC Milan
0–15'56
16–30'37
31–45'116
46–60'137
61–75'105
76–90'148
Cagliari
0–15'210
16–30'66
31–45'98
46–60'710
61–75'106
76–90'713
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
AC Milan · 40 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.23) · stands out: v bottom-tier opponents +0.92
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.2340
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0540
Late push (76+, level)+0.0719
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.6410
Game state
When ahead+0.0927
When level+0.1740
When behind+0.6117
10 min after conceding+0.0726
10 min after scoring+0.6432
Situations
With ten men-0.035
Against ten men-0.782
At home+0.3119
Away+0.1721
3 days rest or fewer+0.722
4+ days rest+0.2138
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.1412
v mid-tier opponents+0.2510
v bottom-tier opponents+0.924
As favourite+0.4725
Evenly matched-0.1313
As underdog-0.322
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.0540
Conceded when ahead+0.0927
Conceded late (76+)-0.0636
Congested vs rested +0.52 · Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level +0.43
Cagliari · 39 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.12) · stands out: v mid-tier opponents -0.28
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.1239
Early press (0-15, level)-0.1039
Late push (76+, level)-0.2414
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.2219
Game state
When ahead-0.1619
When level-0.0739
When behind-0.1525
10 min after conceding-0.2730
10 min after scoring+0.2125
Situations
Against ten men+0.274
At home-0.1719
Away-0.0720
4+ days rest-0.1239
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.2712
v mid-tier opponents-0.287
v bottom-tier opponents+0.085
As favourite+0.015
Evenly matched+0.219
As underdog-0.2625
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.2939
Conceded when ahead+0.3919
Conceded late (76+)+0.2539
Ahead vs level -0.08 · Behind vs level -0.08
AC Milan
Current: winless 3 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-5-2 | 33 82% | 1.91 | 1.42 | 0.85 | 1.56 | 1.31 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 5 12% | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.53 | 1.21 |
| 3-1-4-2 | 1 2% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.66 | 1.14 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.38 | 1.5 |
Cagliari
Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 2 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-5-2 | 18 46% | 1.06 | 1.17 | 1.44 | 0.94 | 1.45 |
| 4-3-2-1 | 3 8% | 2.33 | 1.67 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.53 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 3 8% | 2.0 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.98 | 1.61 |
| 4-5-1 | 3 8% | 0.67 | 0.0 | 0.67 | 0.6 | 0.86 |
| 5-3-2 | 2 5% | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.38 | 1.51 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.
Latest prices
bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
1.38Home 68% P 70%4.75Draw 20% P 20%7.5Away 12% P 10%
Double Chance
1.06AC Milan or Draw 45%1.16AC Milan or Cagliari 41%3.4Draw or Cagliari 14%
Draw No Bet
1.071 89%9.02 11%
Both Teams To Score
2.1Yes 44%1.66No 56%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.72Over 55% P 49%2.1Under 45% P 51%
Total Corners
8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%
Number of Cards
2.51.72Over 54% P 52%2.0Under 46% P 48%
3.52.25Over 41% P 34%1.57Under 59% P 66%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 70–72.5% · away 7.5–10% · 200 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 70% | 72% | 80% | +8.5 |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 15% | -4.1 |
| Away | 10% | 9% | 5% | -4.3 |
In those fixtures: 3.1 goals a game · BTTS 43% · over 2.5 62%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 49% | 50% | +1.3 |
Marco Guida
- Career
- 277 matches · 18 seasons
- Cards / match
- 4.94 (4.73 yellow · 0.14 red)
- Fouls / match
- 23.6 · 4.1 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.37
- Cards to home side
- 47%
Style in Serie A (5-year window · 60 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 4.38 | 4.48 | -0.15 | 42 |
| Fouls / match | 24.5 | 25.1 | -0.37 | |
| Fouls per card | 5.6 | 5.6 | -0.24 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.4 | 0.31 | +0.61 | 71 |
| Time added | 6.0 | 6.4 | -0.86 | 17 |
- First card
- 33' on average
- Card timing
- 20% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 50% (league 46%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.13
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 15' | 8 |
| 2026-04-04 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 17' | 7 |
| 2026-03-15 · AC Milan | 5 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 55' | 15 |
| 2026-03-10 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 34' | 9 |
| 2026-02-26 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 40' | 7 |
| 2026-02-22 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 45' | 5 |
| 2026-02-08 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 33' | 8 |
| 2026-01-28 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 22' | 6 |
| 2026-01-24 · Cagliari | 5 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 56' | 8 |
| 2026-01-15 · AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 90' | 7 |