Rating 7.04 (91th pct) · G+A 15 + 4 (40% of team goals) · 91% of minutes
Premier League · Matchweek 38
Momentum
– NFOBOU –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
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Stats
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Season context
| Nottingham Forest | at home | Stat | league | away | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.8 #13 | – | Ball possession | 50.0 | – | 50.2 #11 |
| 12.5 #12 | – | Shots total | 12.5 | – | 13.8 #5 |
| 4.1 #10 | – | Shots on target | 4.2 | – | 4.7 #4 |
| 5.2 #9 | – | Corners | 5.0 | – | 5.6 #6 |
| 10.7 #9 | – | Fouls | 10.8 | – | 12.0 #3 |
| 1.6 #7 | – | Offsides | 1.6 | – | 1.9 #2 |
| 16.9 #10 | – | Tackles | 16.7 | – | 16.9 #11 |
| 90.1 #11 | – | Attacks | 93.3 | – | 93.7 #8 |
| 49.4 #8 | – | Dangerous attacks | 49.1 | – | 49.8 #7 |
| 408.4 #12 | – | Passes | 437.0 | – | 413.9 #10 |
| 1.6 #17 | – | Yellowcards | 1.9 | – | 2.4 #3 |
| 0.0 #10 | – | Redcards | 0.0 | – | 0.1 #2 |
| 0.9 #9 | – | Assists | 0.9 | – | 1.0 #7 |
| – #17 | – | Btts | 56.1 | – | – #3 |
| – #10 | – | Cleansheet | 25.5 | – | – #4 |
| – #5 | – | Draw | 27.4 | – | – #1 |
| 1.3 #16 | – | Expected goals | 1.5 | – | 1.7 #6 |
| -0.0 #9 | – | Expected goals difference | -0.1 | – | -0.1 #12 |
| – #2 | – | Failed to score | 25.5 | – | – #14 |
| 1.3 #12 | 1.1 | Goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 #5 |
| 1.3 #11 | 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 #7 |
| 0.3 #16 | – | Injury time goals | 0.3 | – | 0.3 #14 |
| 8.1 #15 | – | Interceptions | 8.5 | – | 9.8 #2 |
| – #6 | – | Lost | 36.3 | – | – #17 |
| 0.1 #11 | – | Penalties scored | 0.1 | – | 0.1 #6 |
| 6.8 #7 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.8 #7 |
| 4.1 #8 | – | Shots blocked | 3.7 | – | 4.1 #7 |
| 7.8 #16 | – | Shots insidebox | 8.4 | – | 8.2 #11 |
| 4.6 #12 | – | Shots off target | 4.8 | – | 5.3 #5 |
| 4.8 #4 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.1 | – | 5.6 #1 |
| – #14 | – | Win | 36.3 | – | – #12 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 20.
League this season · 2025/2026
- Played
- 380 of 380
- Goals / match
- 2.75 (home 1.53 · away 1.22)
- Home / draw / away
- 43% · 27% · 30%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 56% · 55%
- Cards / match
- 4.09 (reds 0.09)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Nottingham Forest · 2025/2026 · Premier League
Rating 6.93 (65th pct) · G+A 2 + 3 (10% of team goals) · 94% of minutes
Rating 6.88 (79th pct) · G+A 3 + 4 (15% of team goals) · 54% of minutes
Team 1.05 ppg with (21) · 1.29 without (17)
AFC Bournemouth · 2025/2026 · Premier League
Rating 6.99 (76th pct) · G+A 7 + 4 (19% of team goals) · 80% of minutes
Team 1.45 ppg with (31) · 1.71 without (7)
Rating 6.99 (77th pct) · G+A 3 + 1 (7% of team goals) · 84% of minutes
Rating 6.87 (61th pct) · G+A 1 + 6 (12% of team goals) · 99% of minutes
Absences
Nottingham Forest
- injury Dilane Bakwa attacker · Unknown Injury · 76 missed
- injury Eric da Silva Moreira defender · Unknown Injury · 2 missed
- injury Willy Boly defender · Knee Injury · 26 missed
AFC Bournemouth
- injury Matai Akinmboni defender · Muscle Injury · 32 missed
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 38
Venue
- Stadium
- The City Ground, Nottingham
- Capacity
- 30,445
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 30,741
Teams
- Coaches
- Vítor de Oliveira Lopes Pereira · Andoni Iraola
- Position
- 16 · 6
- Formation
- 4-4-2 · 4-2-3-1
Referee
Craig Pawson
Weather
- Conditions
- clear sky
- Temperature
- 27.6° (feels 26.8°)
- Wind
- 3.1
- Humidity
- 30%
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2025/2026
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal |
38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 85 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Manchester City |
38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77 | 35 | 42 | 78 | DWWDL |
| 3 |  Manchester United |
38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69 | 50 | 19 | 71 | WWDWW |
| 4 |  Aston Villa |
38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56 | 49 | 7 | 65 | LLDWW |
| 5 |  Liverpool |
38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63 | 53 | 10 | 60 | WLDLD |
| 6 |  AFC Bournemouth |
38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58 | 54 | 4 | 57 | DWWDD |
| 7 |  Sunderland |
38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 54 | LDDWW |
| 8 |  Brighton & Hove Albion |
38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52 | 46 | 6 | 53 | WLWLL |
| 9 |  Brentford |
38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55 | 52 | 3 | 53 | LWLDD |
| 10 |  Chelsea |
38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 52 | LLDWL |
| 11 |  Fulham |
38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 52 | WLLDW |
| 12 |  Newcastle United |
38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 49 | LWDWL |
| 13 |  Everton |
38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 49 | LDDLL |
| 14 |  Leeds United |
38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 47 | DWDWL |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace |
38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 45 | LDLDL |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest |
38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 44 | WWDLD |
| 17 |  Tottenham Hotspur |
38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 41 | WWDLW |
| 18 |  West Ham United |
38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 39 | WLLLW |
| 19 |  Burnley |
38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38 | 75 | -37 | 22 | LLDLD |
| 20 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers |
38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27 | 68 | -41 | 20 | LDLDD |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal |
19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 47 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Manchester City |
19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 45 | 14 | 31 | 45 | DWWDL |
| 3 | Manchester United |
19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 24 | 15 | 42 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Aston Villa |
19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 38 | LLDWW |
| 5 | Liverpool |
19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 36 | WLDLD |
| 6 | Fulham |
19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 35 | WLLDW |
| 7 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 33 | WLWLL |
| 8 | Sunderland |
19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 33 | LDDWW |
| 9 | Brentford |
19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 32 | LWLDD |
| 10 | Leeds United |
19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 21 | 8 | 32 | DWDWL |
| 11 | Newcastle United |
19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 30 | 6 | 32 | LWDWL |
| 12 | AFC Bournemouth |
19 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 31 | DWWDD |
| 13 | Chelsea |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 26 | LLDWL |
| 14 | Everton |
19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 23 | LDDLL |
| 15 | West Ham United |
19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 22 | WLLLW |
| 16 | Crystal Palace |
19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 21 | LDLDL |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest |
19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 20 | WWDLD |
| 18 | Tottenham Hotspur |
19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 15 | WWDLW |
| 19 | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 14 | LDLDD |
| 20 | Burnley |
19 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 13 | LLDLD |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal |
19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Manchester City |
19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 33 | DWWDL |
| 3 | Manchester United |
19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 29 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Aston Villa |
19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 27 | LLDWW |
| 5 | Chelsea |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 26 | LLDWL |
| 6 | Tottenham Hotspur |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 26 | WWDLW |
| 7 | Everton |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 26 | LDDLL |
| 8 | AFC Bournemouth |
19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 26 | DWWDD |
| 9 | Nottingham Forest |
19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 24 | WWDLD |
| 10 | Liverpool |
19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 24 | WLDLD |
| 11 | Crystal Palace |
19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 24 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Brentford |
19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 21 | LWLDD |
| 13 | Sunderland |
19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 21 | LDDWW |
| 14 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 20 | WLWLL |
| 15 | Newcastle United |
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 17 | LWDWL |
| 16 | Fulham |
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 17 | WLLDW |
| 17 | West Ham United |
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 35 | -16 | 17 | WLLLW |
| 18 | Leeds United |
19 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 15 | DWDWL |
| 19 | Burnley |
19 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 20 | 46 | -26 | 9 | LLDLD |
| 20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
19 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 34 | -26 | 6 | LDLDD |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Europa League
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
- Relegation
Nottingham Forest
WWLDL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 9 · xG 7.34–11.65 · xPts 5.24
- L
A
Manchester United
2–3
xG 1.67–3.87
UK PL
- D
H
Newcastle United
1–1
xG 1.51–1.3
UK PL
- L
A
Aston Villa
0–4
xG 0.46–3.07
UEFA EL
- W
A
Chelsea
3–1
xG 2.02–2.6
UK PL
- W
H
Aston Villa
1–0
xG 1.69–0.82
UEFA EL
DDWWWWWLDL 5W 3D 2L · 18 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 19 GA 12 · xG 13.4–17.1 · xPts 12.58
- L
A
Manchester United
2–3
xG 1.67–3.87
UK PL
- D
H
Newcastle United
1–1
xG 1.51–1.3
UK PL
- L
A
Aston Villa
0–4
xG 0.46–3.07
UEFA EL
- W
A
Chelsea
3–1
xG 2.02–2.6
UK PL
- W
H
Aston Villa
1–0
xG 1.69–0.82
UEFA EL
- W
A
Sunderland
5–0
xG 0.89–0.94
UK PL
- W
H
Burnley
4–1
xG 1.41–0.5
UK PL
- W
H
Porto
1–0
xG 2.11–0.71
UEFA EL - D
H
Aston Villa
1–1
xG 1.13–1.27
UK PL
- D
A
Porto
1–1
xG 0.51–2.04
UEFA EL
AFC Bournemouth
WDWWD 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 9 GA 4 · xG 10.3–7.5 · xPts 8.47
- D
H
Manchester City
1–1
xG 2.03–1.69
UK PL
- W
A
Fulham
1–0
xG 0.89–1.52
UK PL
- W
H
Crystal Palace
3–0
xG 2.16–1.08
UK PL
- D
H
Leeds United
2–2
xG 1.96–1.3
UK PL
- W
A
Newcastle United
2–1
xG 3.25–1.91
UK PL
DDDDWWDWWD 4W 6D 0L · 18 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 14 GA 8 · xG 19.36–15.78 · xPts 16.14
- D
H
Manchester City
1–1
xG 2.03–1.69
UK PL
- W
A
Fulham
1–0
xG 0.89–1.52
UK PL
- W
H
Crystal Palace
3–0
xG 2.16–1.08
UK PL
- D
H
Leeds United
2–2
xG 1.96–1.3
UK PL
- W
A
Newcastle United
2–1
xG 3.25–1.91
UK PL
- W
A
Arsenal
2–1
xG 1.34–2.72
UK PL
- D
H
Manchester United
2–2
xG 1.96–2.14
UK PL
- D
A
Burnley
0–0
xG 2.1–1.73
UK PL
- D
H
Brentford
0–0
xG 1.45–0.55
UK PL
- D
H
Sunderland
1–1
xG 2.22–1.14
UK PL
All meetings · 16 matches since 2013
Goals 15–29 · 2.75 per match · BTTS 69% · over 2.5 44%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 9–20 · 2.9 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 40%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 3–10 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 20%
Recent meetings
- D Nottingham Forest 1–1 AFC Bournemouth UK PL · Regular Season
- L AFC Bournemouth 2–0 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- L AFC Bournemouth 5–0 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- D Nottingham Forest 1–1 AFC Bournemouth UK PL · Regular Season
- D AFC Bournemouth 1–1 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- L Nottingham Forest 2–3 AFC Bournemouth UK PL · Regular Season
- D AFC Bournemouth 1–1 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- L Nottingham Forest 2–3 AFC Bournemouth UK PL · Regular Season
- L AFC Bournemouth 1–0 Nottingham Forest UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- L Nottingham Forest 1–2 AFC Bournemouth UK CHAMP · Regular Season
| Metric | Nottingham Forest all · 38 | Nottingham Forest at home · 19 | AFC Bournemouth all · 38 | AFC Bournemouth away · 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 38 | 19 | 38 | 19 |
| Points per game | 1.16 | 1.05 | 1.50 | 1.37 |
| W / D / L | 11 / 11 / 16 | 4 / 8 / 7 | 13 / 18 / 7 | 6 / 8 / 5 |
| Goals for / match | 1.26 | 1.05 | 1.53 | 1.53 |
| Goals against / match | 1.34 | 1.21 | 1.42 | 1.79 |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 21% | 29% | 26% |
| Failed to score | 37% | 47% | 18% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 47% | 66% | 68% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 42% | 55% | 63% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.30 | 1.55 | 1.67 | 1.66 |
| xG against / match | 1.59 | 1.37 | 1.58 | 2.17 |
| xG difference | -0.30 | 0.18 | 0.10 | -0.51 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.03 | -0.50 | -0.14 | -0.13 |
| xPts / match | 1.22 | 1.49 | 1.50 | 1.16 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.06 | -0.43 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 29% | 21% | 50% | 53% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.45 | 2.00 | 1.95 | 1.90 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.58 | 0.75 | 1.07 | 0.71 |
| Came back from behind | 33% | 42% | 61% | 50% |
| Leads held | 73% | 57% | 56% | 50% |
| Minutes leading | 19% | 16% | 28% | 28% |
| Minutes level | 53% | 67% | 54% | 49% |
| Minutes trailing | 28% | 17% | 18% | 22% |
| First goal (min) | 39 | 38 | 37 | 34 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 40 | 49 | 42 | 37 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 60% | 60% | 55% | 52% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 53% | 65% | 57% | 53% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| Late goals against | 0.39 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 47% | 49% | 50% | 48% |
| Shots | 12.5 | 15.0 | 13.8 | 13.1 |
| On target | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 7% | 11% | 12% |
| Shots inside box | 62% | 60% | 59% | 60% |
| Big chances created | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Corners | 5.2 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.2 |
| xG from set plays | 24% | 24% | 32% | 29% |
| Goals from headers | 23% | 21% | 10% | 11% |
| Pressure index | 12.8 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 9.2 |
| Dominant minutes | 48.7 | 56.1 | 48.0 | 39.4 |
| Pass accuracy | 81% | 82% | 79% | 78% |
| Fouls | 10.7 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 12.5 |
| Cards | 1.61 | 1.32 | 2.37 | 2.58 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nottingham Forest
0–15'86
16–30'26
31–45'912
46–60'109
61–75'63
76–90'1315
AFC Bournemouth
0–15'85
16–30'87
31–45'1011
46–60'67
61–75'109
76–90'1615
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Nottingham Forest · 4 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.06) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.52
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.064
Early press (0-15, level)-0.434
Late push (76+, level)-0.394
Game state
When ahead+0.652
When level-0.094
10 min after conceding-0.523
10 min after scoring+0.742
Situations
At home-0.262
Away+0.372
4+ days rest+0.064
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.372
Evenly matched+0.093
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.004
Conceded when ahead-0.202
Conceded late (76+)-0.354
Ahead vs level +0.75 · Behind vs level -0.62
AFC Bournemouth · 5 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.00) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.23
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.005
Early press (0-15, level)+0.215
Late push (76+, level)-0.044
Game state
When ahead+0.025
When level+0.015
When behind-0.682
10 min after conceding-0.235
10 min after scoring+0.225
Situations
At home+0.042
Away-0.033
4+ days rest-0.005
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.143
As favourite+0.112
As underdog-0.172
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.175
Conceded when ahead-0.145
Conceded late (76+)-0.205
Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level -0.69
Nottingham Forest
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 29 76% | 1.21 | 1.14 | 1.21 | 1.29 | 1.44 |
| 4-4-2 | 4 10% | 1.75 | 2.75 | 1.25 | 1.63 | 2.14 |
| 5-3-2 | 2 5% | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.41 | 2.07 |
| 3-4-3 | 1 3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.27 | 3.27 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 1 3% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.51 | 1.3 |
AFC Bournemouth
Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 13 · conceding 7
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 36 95% | 1.5 | 1.53 | 1.39 | 1.67 | 1.58 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 2 5% | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.42 |
| Metric | Nottingham Forest all · 10 | Nottingham Forest at home · 10 | AFC Bournemouth all · 10 | AFC Bournemouth away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | 1.50 | 1.90 |
| W / D / L | 3 / 4 / 3 | 3 / 5 / 2 | 3 / 6 / 1 | 5 / 4 / 1 |
| Goals for / match | 1.20 | 0.90 | 1.60 | 1.30 |
| Goals against / match | 1.40 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | 20% | 30% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | 0% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 80% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 10% | 60% | 60% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.57 | 1.41 | 1.58 | 1.35 |
| xG against / match | 1.78 | 0.94 | 1.31 | 2.07 |
| xG difference | -0.21 | 0.47 | 0.26 | -0.72 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.37 | -0.51 | 0.02 | -0.05 |
| xPts / match | 1.34 | 1.68 | 1.54 | 1.03 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.04 | -0.28 | -0.04 | 0.87 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 50% | 30% | 80% | 60% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.20 | 2.33 | 1.63 | 2.17 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.25 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Came back from behind | 25% | 60% | 67% | 67% |
| Leads held | 60% | 75% | 33% | 71% |
| Minutes leading | 23% | 15% | 50% | 39% |
| Minutes level | 60% | 78% | 47% | 56% |
| Minutes trailing | 17% | 6% | 3% | 4% |
| First goal (min) | 45 | 51 | 34 | 33 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 60 | 61 | 62 | 51 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 67% | 67% | 38% | 46% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 86% | 67% | 75% | 56% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| Late goals against | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 45% | 49% | 48% | 47% |
| Shots | 12.5 | 14.5 | 14.0 | 12.3 |
| On target | 4.0 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.9 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 6% | 11% | 11% |
| Shots inside box | 68% | 61% | 60% | 54% |
| Big chances created | 2.9 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Corners | 3.4 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 3.3 |
| xG from set plays | 36% | 28% | 33% | 14% |
| Goals from headers | 18% | 12% | 12% | 23% |
| Pressure index | 10.7 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 9.1 |
| Dominant minutes | 46.0 | 54.1 | 51.7 | 41.4 |
| Pass accuracy | 80% | 81% | 81% | 79% |
| Fouls | 11.7 | 12.0 | 12.1 | 12.9 |
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | 2.70 | 2.30 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nottingham Forest
0–15'21
16–30'10
31–45'11
46–60'34
61–75'22
76–90'36
AFC Bournemouth
0–15'30
16–30'20
31–45'53
46–60'42
61–75'01
76–90'26
Nottingham Forest
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 5 50% | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.58 | 1.25 |
| 4-4-2 | 4 40% | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.25 | 1.83 | 2.11 |
| 4-4-1-1 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.46 | 3.07 |
AFC Bournemouth
Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 13 · conceding 7
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 9 90% | 1.33 | 1.56 | 1.22 | 1.66 | 1.34 |
| 4-4-2 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.88 | 1.07 |
| Metric | Nottingham Forest all · 55 | Nottingham Forest at home · 27 | AFC Bournemouth all · 40 | AFC Bournemouth away · 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 55 | 27 | 40 | 21 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 1.22 | 1.37 | 1.33 |
| W / D / L | 19 / 16 / 20 | 8 / 9 / 10 | 11 / 22 / 7 | 6 / 10 / 5 |
| Goals for / match | 1.36 | 1.15 | 1.58 | 1.62 |
| Goals against / match | 1.20 | 0.96 | 1.50 | 1.81 |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 37% | 22% | 19% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 41% | 18% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 37% | 72% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 37% | 60% | 71% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.52 | 1.64 | 1.68 | 1.60 |
| xG against / match | 1.40 | 1.19 | 1.64 | 2.20 |
| xG difference | 0.12 | 0.46 | 0.03 | -0.60 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.15 | -0.50 | -0.10 | 0.02 |
| xPts / match | 1.47 | 1.66 | 1.45 | 1.10 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.14 | -0.44 | -0.08 | 0.24 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 36% | 30% | 50% | 57% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.60 | 2.50 | 1.65 | 1.67 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.53 | 0.60 | 1.13 | 0.86 |
| Came back from behind | 33% | 33% | 65% | 54% |
| Leads held | 76% | 73% | 42% | 40% |
| Minutes leading | 24% | 21% | 28% | 33% |
| Minutes level | 53% | 62% | 55% | 48% |
| Minutes trailing | 23% | 18% | 16% | 19% |
| First goal (min) | 38 | 38 | 38 | 32 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 42 | 46 | 45 | 42 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 60% | 61% | 52% | 46% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 54% | 58% | 59% | 57% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.36 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| Late goals against | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 48% | 51% | 50% | 47% |
| Shots | 14.2 | 15.7 | 14.0 | 13.0 |
| On target | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 7% | 11% | 12% |
| Shots inside box | 62% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Big chances created | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| Corners | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.6 |
| xG from set plays | 31% | 32% | 31% | 28% |
| Goals from headers | 19% | 10% | 11% | 12% |
| Pressure index | 15.3 | 17.0 | 12.8 | 9.8 |
| Dominant minutes | 52.6 | 57.6 | 48.1 | 40.4 |
| Pass accuracy | 82% | 83% | 79% | 78% |
| Fouls | 11.7 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 13.1 |
| Cards | 1.76 | 1.52 | 2.48 | 2.67 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nottingham Forest
0–15'98
16–30'119
31–45'1013
46–60'1512
61–75'107
76–90'2017
AFC Bournemouth
0–15'85
16–30'97
31–45'1312
46–60'78
61–75'109
76–90'1518
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Nottingham Forest · 55 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: v mid-tier opponents +0.61
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.1755
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0355
Late push (76+, level)-0.0923
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.0423
Game state
When ahead+0.1925
When level+0.1855
When behind+0.1530
10 min after conceding-0.0638
10 min after scoring+0.4737
Situations
With ten men+0.102
At home+0.1027
Away+0.2628
3 days rest or fewer+0.1622
4+ days rest+0.1933
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.0131
v mid-tier opponents+0.6110
v bottom-tier opponents+0.242
As favourite+0.6015
Evenly matched+0.1520
As underdog-0.1220
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.0055
Conceded when ahead+0.0225
Conceded late (76+)-0.2051
Congested vs rested -0.03 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level -0.03
AFC Bournemouth · 40 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.08) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) +0.44
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.0840
Early press (0-15, level)+0.1140
Late push (76+, level)-0.1625
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.4412
Game state
When ahead-0.0526
When level+0.0940
When behind+0.3020
10 min after conceding-0.1231
10 min after scoring+0.4133
Situations
With ten men-0.382
Against ten men-0.432
At home+0.1919
Away-0.0221
3 days rest or fewer+0.035
4+ days rest+0.0935
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.0325
v mid-tier opponents+0.047
v bottom-tier opponents+0.562
As favourite+0.4112
Evenly matched-0.0215
As underdog-0.1113
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.0540
Conceded when ahead+0.2026
Conceded late (76+)+0.0539
Congested vs rested -0.06 · Ahead vs level -0.14 · Behind vs level +0.21
Nottingham Forest
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 32 58% | 1.41 | 1.38 | 1.0 | 1.51 | 1.27 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 8 14% | 1.25 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.52 | 1.22 |
| 4-4-2 | 6 11% | 1.67 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.66 | 1.71 |
| 4-3-3 | 2 4% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.91 | 0.84 |
| 3-4-3 | 2 4% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.17 | 2.81 |
AFC Bournemouth
Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 13 · conceding 7
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 39 98% | 1.33 | 1.56 | 1.51 | 1.7 | 1.66 |
| 4-4-2 | 1 2% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.88 | 1.07 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.
Latest prices
bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
3.7Home 26% P 25%3.8Draw 25% P 26%1.9Away 50% P 49%
Double Chance
1.8Nottm Forest or Draw 26%1.25Nottm Forest or Bournemouth 37%1.28Draw or Bournemouth 37%
Draw No Bet
2.621 35%1.442 65%
Both Teams To Score
1.53Yes 61%2.37No 39%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.61Over 59% P 59%2.3Under 41% P 41%
Total Corners
15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 33%3.512 - 14 25%6.0Over 14 14%
Number of Cards
3.52.2Over 42% P 44%1.61Under 58% P 56%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 25–27.5% · away 47.5–50% · 285 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 25% | 26% | 24% | -2.2 |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 27% | +1.9 |
| Away | 49% | 49% | 49% | +0.2 |
In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 56%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 59% | 60% | +0.8 |
Craig Pawson
- Career
- 441 matches · 18 seasons
- Cards / match
- 3.82 (3.68 yellow · 0.08 red)
- Fouls / match
- 20.5 · 4.8 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.23
- Cards to home side
- 46%
Style in Premier League (5-year window · 105 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 4.14 | 4.26 | -0.15 | 42 |
| Fouls / match | 22.4 | 21.6 | +0.68 | |
| Fouls per card | 5.6 | 5.1 | +0.47 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.28 | 0.25 | +0.17 | 62 |
| Time added | 8.8 | 8.4 | +0.52 | 77 |
- First card
- 42' on average
- Card timing
- 9% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 46% (league 46%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.37
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 6 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 67' | 9 |
| 2026-05-02 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 59' | 11 |
| 2026-04-25 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 90' | 9 |
| 2026-04-21 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 45' | 5 |
| 2026-04-05 | 5 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 40' | 15 |
| 2026-03-03 · AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 60' | 9 |
| 2026-02-27 | 6 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 45' | 11 |
| 2026-02-22 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 41' | 16 |
| 2026-02-08 | 6 | 1 | 29 | 1 | 42' | 9 |
| 2026-01-25 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 64' | 9 |