Rating 7.04 (91th pct) · G+A 15 + 4 (40% of team goals) · 91% of minutes
Premier League · Matchweek 8
Momentum
– NFOChelsea –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
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Stats
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Season context
| Nottingham Forest | at home | Stat | league | away | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.8 #13 | – | Ball possession | 50.0 | – | 57.7 #3 |
| 12.5 #12 | – | Shots total | 12.5 | – | 13.4 #6 |
| 4.1 #10 | – | Shots on target | 4.2 | – | 4.4 #9 |
| 5.2 #9 | – | Corners | 5.0 | – | 6.0 #4 |
| 10.7 #9 | – | Fouls | 10.8 | – | 11.1 #6 |
| 1.6 #7 | – | Offsides | 1.6 | – | 1.5 #10 |
| 16.9 #10 | – | Tackles | 16.7 | – | 15.6 #14 |
| 90.1 #11 | – | Attacks | 93.3 | – | 100.9 #4 |
| 49.4 #8 | – | Dangerous attacks | 49.1 | – | 54.0 #5 |
| 408.4 #12 | – | Passes | 437.0 | – | 540.4 #2 |
| 1.6 #17 | – | Yellowcards | 1.9 | – | 2.5 #2 |
| 0.0 #10 | – | Redcards | 0.0 | – | 0.1 #1 |
| 0.9 #9 | – | Assists | 0.9 | – | 1.0 #6 |
| – #17 | – | Btts | 56.1 | – | – #5 |
| – #10 | – | Cleansheet | 25.5 | – | – #10 |
| – #5 | – | Draw | 27.4 | – | – #11 |
| 1.3 #16 | – | Expected goals | 1.5 | – | 1.8 #4 |
| -0.0 #9 | – | Expected goals difference | -0.1 | – | -0.3 #18 |
| – #2 | – | Failed to score | 25.5 | – | – #14 |
| 1.3 #12 | 1.1 | Goals | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 #5 |
| 1.3 #11 | 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 #9 |
| 0.3 #16 | – | Injury time goals | 0.3 | – | 0.3 #5 |
| 8.1 #15 | – | Interceptions | 8.5 | – | 10.0 #1 |
| – #6 | – | Lost | 36.3 | – | – #10 |
| 0.1 #11 | – | Penalties scored | 0.1 | – | 0.2 #3 |
| 6.8 #7 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.8 #5 |
| 4.1 #8 | – | Shots blocked | 3.7 | – | 4.4 #3 |
| 7.8 #16 | – | Shots insidebox | 8.4 | – | 8.9 #5 |
| 4.6 #12 | – | Shots off target | 4.8 | – | 4.7 #9 |
| 4.8 #4 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.1 | – | 4.5 #7 |
| – #14 | – | Win | 36.3 | – | – #7 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 20.
League this season · 2025/2026
- Played
- 380 of 380
- Goals / match
- 2.75 (home 1.53 · away 1.22)
- Home / draw / away
- 43% · 27% · 30%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 56% · 55%
- Cards / match
- 4.09 (reds 0.09)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Nottingham Forest · 2025/2026 · Premier League
Rating 6.93 (65th pct) · G+A 2 + 3 (10% of team goals) · 94% of minutes
Rating 6.88 (79th pct) · G+A 3 + 4 (15% of team goals) · 54% of minutes
Team 1.05 ppg with (21) · 1.29 without (17)
Chelsea · 2025/2026 · Premier League
Rating 7.14 (95th pct) · G+A 15 + 5 (34% of team goals) · 78% of minutes
Team 1.42 ppg with (31) · 1.14 without (7)
Rating 7.05 (88th pct) · G+A 3 + 1 (7% of team goals) · 82% of minutes
Team 1.28 ppg with (32) · 1.83 without (6)
Rating 6.96 (71th pct) · G+A 5 + 6 (19% of team goals) · 77% of minutes
Team 1.43 ppg with (30) · 1.12 without (8)
Absences
Nottingham Forest
- injury Dilane Bakwa attacker · Unknown Injury · 76 missed
- injury Ola Aina #9 key player defender · Hamstring Injury · 23 missed · until 2026-01-03
- suspension Angus Gunn goalkeeper · No Eligibility · 22 missed · until 2025-12-31
Chelsea
- injury Dário Essugo midfielder · Surgery · 16 missed · until 2026-01-08
- injury Levi Colwill #12 key player defender · Cruciate Ligament Tear · until 2026-04-24
- injury Liam Delap attacker · Hamstring Injury · 10 missed · until 2025-10-28
- suspension Axel Disasi defender · No Eligibility · 41 missed · until 2026-02-01
- suspension Mykhaylo Mudryk attacker · Suspension Through Sports Court · 101 missed · until 2026-07-31
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 8
Venue
- Stadium
- The City Ground, Nottingham
- Capacity
- 30,445
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 30,495
Teams
- Coaches
- Ange Postecoglou · Willy Caballero
- Position
- 17 · 7
- Formation
- 5-3-2 · 4-2-3-1
Referee
Chris Kavanagh
Weather
- Conditions
- overcast clouds
- Temperature
- 13.6° (feels 12.5°)
- Wind
- 4.4
- Humidity
- 57%
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2025/2026
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal |
38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 85 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Manchester City |
38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77 | 35 | 42 | 78 | DWWDL |
| 3 |  Manchester United |
38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69 | 50 | 19 | 71 | WWDWW |
| 4 |  Aston Villa |
38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56 | 49 | 7 | 65 | LLDWW |
| 5 |  Liverpool |
38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63 | 53 | 10 | 60 | WLDLD |
| 6 |  AFC Bournemouth |
38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58 | 54 | 4 | 57 | DWWDD |
| 7 |  Sunderland |
38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 54 | LDDWW |
| 8 |  Brighton & Hove Albion |
38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52 | 46 | 6 | 53 | WLWLL |
| 9 |  Brentford |
38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55 | 52 | 3 | 53 | LWLDD |
| 10 |  Chelsea |
38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 52 | LLDWL |
| 11 |  Fulham |
38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 52 | WLLDW |
| 12 |  Newcastle United |
38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 49 | LWDWL |
| 13 |  Everton |
38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 49 | LDDLL |
| 14 |  Leeds United |
38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 47 | DWDWL |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace |
38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 45 | LDLDL |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest |
38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 44 | WWDLD |
| 17 |  Tottenham Hotspur |
38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 41 | WWDLW |
| 18 |  West Ham United |
38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 39 | WLLLW |
| 19 |  Burnley |
38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38 | 75 | -37 | 22 | LLDLD |
| 20 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers |
38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27 | 68 | -41 | 20 | LDLDD |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal |
19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 47 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Manchester City |
19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 45 | 14 | 31 | 45 | DWWDL |
| 3 | Manchester United |
19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 24 | 15 | 42 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Aston Villa |
19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 38 | LLDWW |
| 5 | Liverpool |
19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 36 | WLDLD |
| 6 | Fulham |
19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 35 | WLLDW |
| 7 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 33 | WLWLL |
| 8 | Sunderland |
19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 33 | LDDWW |
| 9 | Brentford |
19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 32 | LWLDD |
| 10 | Leeds United |
19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 21 | 8 | 32 | DWDWL |
| 11 | Newcastle United |
19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 30 | 6 | 32 | LWDWL |
| 12 | AFC Bournemouth |
19 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 31 | DWWDD |
| 13 | Chelsea |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 26 | LLDWL |
| 14 | Everton |
19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 23 | LDDLL |
| 15 | West Ham United |
19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 22 | WLLLW |
| 16 | Crystal Palace |
19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 21 | LDLDL |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest |
19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 20 | WWDLD |
| 18 | Tottenham Hotspur |
19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 15 | WWDLW |
| 19 | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 14 | LDLDD |
| 20 | Burnley |
19 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 13 | LLDLD |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal |
19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Manchester City |
19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 33 | DWWDL |
| 3 | Manchester United |
19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 29 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Aston Villa |
19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 27 | LLDWW |
| 5 | Chelsea |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 26 | LLDWL |
| 6 | Tottenham Hotspur |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 26 | WWDLW |
| 7 | Everton |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 26 | LDDLL |
| 8 | AFC Bournemouth |
19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 26 | DWWDD |
| 9 | Nottingham Forest |
19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 24 | WWDLD |
| 10 | Liverpool |
19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 24 | WLDLD |
| 11 | Crystal Palace |
19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 24 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Brentford |
19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 21 | LWLDD |
| 13 | Sunderland |
19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 21 | LDDWW |
| 14 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 20 | WLWLL |
| 15 | Newcastle United |
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 17 | LWDWL |
| 16 | Fulham |
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 17 | WLLDW |
| 17 | West Ham United |
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 35 | -16 | 17 | WLLLW |
| 18 | Leeds United |
19 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 15 | DWDWL |
| 19 | Burnley |
19 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 20 | 46 | -26 | 9 | LLDLD |
| 20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
19 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 34 | -26 | 6 | LDLDD |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Europa League
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
- Relegation
Nottingham Forest
DDLLL 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 9 · xG 8.79–8.68 · xPts 7.37
- L
A
Newcastle United
0–2
xG 0.27–3.27
UK PL
- L
H
FC Midtjylland
2–3
xG 2.06–2.35
UEFA EL - L
H
Sunderland
0–1
xG 2.23–1.46
UK PL
- D
A
Real Betis
2–2
xG 3.0–0.55
UEFA EL - D
A
Burnley
1–1
xG 1.22–1.05
UK PL
WDLLDDLLL 1W 3D 5L · 6 pts (0.67 ppg) · GF 9 GA 17 · xG 12.58–16.11 · xPts 10.93
- L
A
Newcastle United
0–2
xG 0.27–3.27
UK PL
- L
H
FC Midtjylland
2–3
xG 2.06–2.35
UEFA EL
- L
H
Sunderland
0–1
xG 2.23–1.46
UK PL
- D
A
Real Betis
2–2
xG 3.0–0.55
UEFA EL
- D
A
Burnley
1–1
xG 1.22–1.05
UK PL
- L
A
Arsenal
0–3
xG 0.49–2.56
UK PL
- L
H
West Ham United
0–3
xG 0.88–2.4
UK PL
- D
A
Crystal Palace
1–1
xG 1.3–0.82
UK PL
- W
H
Brentford
3–1
xG 1.12–1.65
UK PL
Chelsea
LLLWW 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 6 GA 9 · xG 4.54–8.39 · xPts 4.26
- W
H
Liverpool
2–1
xG 0.89–1.9
UK PL
- W
H
Benfica
1–0
xG 0.77–1.2
UEFA CL - L
H
Brighton & Hove Albion
1–3
xG 1.58–1.66
UK PL
- L
A
Manchester United
1–2
xG 0.48–1.53
UK PL
- L
A
FC Bayern München
1–3
xG 0.82–2.1
UEFA CL
DWWDLLLWW 4W 2D 3L · 14 pts (1.56 ppg) · GF 15 GA 12 · xG 12.66–12.81 · xPts 12.08
- W
H
Liverpool
2–1
xG 0.89–1.9
UK PL
- W
H
Benfica
1–0
xG 0.77–1.2
UEFA CL
- L
H
Brighton & Hove Albion
1–3
xG 1.58–1.66
UK PL
- L
A
Manchester United
1–2
xG 0.48–1.53
UK PL
- L
A
FC Bayern München
1–3
xG 0.82–2.1
UEFA CL
- D
A
Brentford
2–2
xG 1.55–1.47
UK PL
- W
H
Fulham
2–0
xG 1.96–1.48
UK PL
- W
A
West Ham United
5–1
xG 2.81–0.95
UK PL
- D
H
Crystal Palace
0–0
xG 1.81–0.51
UK PL
All meetings · 11 matches since 2007
Goals 10–19 · 2.64 per match · BTTS 46% · over 2.5 46%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 10–16 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 40%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 6–9 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%
Recent meetings
- W Chelsea 1–3 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- L Nottingham Forest 0–3 Chelsea UK PL · Regular Season
- L Nottingham Forest 0–1 Chelsea UK PL · Regular Season
- D Chelsea 1–1 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- L Nottingham Forest 2–3 Chelsea UK PL · Regular Season
- W Chelsea 0–1 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- D Chelsea 2–2 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- D Nottingham Forest 1–1 Chelsea UK PL · Regular Season
- L Chelsea 2–0 Nottingham Forest UK FA Cup · 3rd Round
- L Chelsea 2–0 Nottingham Forest UK FA Cup · 3rd Round
| Metric | Nottingham Forest all · 38 | Nottingham Forest at home · 19 | Chelsea all · 38 | Chelsea away · 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 38 | 19 | 38 | 19 |
| Points per game | 1.16 | 1.05 | 1.37 | 1.37 |
| W / D / L | 11 / 11 / 16 | 4 / 8 / 7 | 14 / 10 / 14 | 7 / 5 / 7 |
| Goals for / match | 1.26 | 1.05 | 1.53 | 1.68 |
| Goals against / match | 1.34 | 1.21 | 1.37 | 1.42 |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 21% | 24% | 21% |
| Failed to score | 37% | 47% | 18% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 47% | 63% | 68% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 42% | 66% | 74% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.30 | 1.55 | 1.80 | 1.63 |
| xG against / match | 1.59 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.39 |
| xG difference | -0.30 | 0.18 | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.03 | -0.50 | -0.28 | 0.05 |
| xPts / match | 1.22 | 1.49 | 1.60 | 1.48 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.06 | -0.43 | -0.24 | -0.11 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 29% | 21% | 45% | 26% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.45 | 2.00 | 2.12 | 3.00 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.58 | 0.75 | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| Came back from behind | 33% | 42% | 36% | 46% |
| Leads held | 73% | 57% | 64% | 88% |
| Minutes leading | 19% | 16% | 29% | 23% |
| Minutes level | 53% | 67% | 43% | 39% |
| Minutes trailing | 28% | 17% | 28% | 38% |
| First goal (min) | 39 | 38 | 40 | 47 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 40 | 49 | 36 | 26 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 60% | 60% | 55% | 59% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 53% | 65% | 54% | 44% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| Late goals against | 0.39 | 0.53 | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 47% | 49% | 58% | 56% |
| Shots | 12.5 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 11.6 |
| On target | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 7% | 11% | 14% |
| Shots inside box | 62% | 60% | 66% | 73% |
| Big chances created | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| Corners | 5.2 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.1 |
| xG from set plays | 24% | 24% | 29% | 26% |
| Goals from headers | 23% | 21% | 20% | 17% |
| Pressure index | 12.8 | 14.2 | 17.2 | 15.4 |
| Dominant minutes | 48.7 | 56.1 | 57.3 | 52.1 |
| Pass accuracy | 81% | 82% | 87% | 86% |
| Fouls | 10.7 | 10.3 | 11.1 | 11.3 |
| Cards | 1.61 | 1.32 | 2.89 | 3.26 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nottingham Forest
0–15'86
16–30'26
31–45'912
46–60'109
61–75'63
76–90'1315
Chelsea
0–15'611
16–30'76
31–45'137
46–60'148
61–75'99
76–90'911
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Nottingham Forest · 4 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.06) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.52
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.064
Early press (0-15, level)-0.434
Late push (76+, level)-0.394
Game state
When ahead+0.652
When level-0.094
10 min after conceding-0.523
10 min after scoring+0.742
Situations
At home-0.262
Away+0.372
4+ days rest+0.064
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.372
Evenly matched+0.093
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.004
Conceded when ahead-0.202
Conceded late (76+)-0.354
Ahead vs level +0.75 · Behind vs level -0.62
Chelsea · 4 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.06) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.40
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.064
Early press (0-15, level)-0.214
Game state
When ahead+0.074
When level-0.074
When behind+0.172
10 min after conceding-0.404
10 min after scoring+0.324
Situations
At home-0.002
Away+0.122
4+ days rest+0.064
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.003
As favourite+0.153
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.234
Conceded when ahead+0.354
Conceded late (76+)-0.274
Ahead vs level +0.14 · Behind vs level +0.24
Nottingham Forest
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 29 76% | 1.21 | 1.14 | 1.21 | 1.29 | 1.44 |
| 4-4-2 | 4 10% | 1.75 | 2.75 | 1.25 | 1.63 | 2.14 |
| 5-3-2 | 2 5% | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.41 | 2.07 |
| 3-4-3 | 1 3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.27 | 3.27 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 1 3% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.51 | 1.3 |
Chelsea
Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 6 · conceding 9
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 32 84% | 1.44 | 1.5 | 1.22 | 1.82 | 1.33 |
| 4-3-3 | 3 8% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.92 | 1.47 |
| 5-4-1 | 1 3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.62 | 2.02 |
| 3-4-1-2 | 1 3% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.81 | 1.81 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 1 3% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.18 | 1.3 |
| Metric | Nottingham Forest all · 10 | Nottingham Forest at home · 10 | Chelsea all · 10 | Chelsea away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| W / D / L | 3 / 4 / 3 | 3 / 5 / 2 | 4 / 2 / 4 | 3 / 1 / 6 |
| Goals for / match | 1.20 | 0.90 | 1.60 | 1.70 |
| Goals against / match | 1.40 | 0.60 | 1.70 | 2.30 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | 10% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | 10% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 80% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 10% | 70% | 90% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.57 | 1.41 | 1.30 | 1.23 |
| xG against / match | 1.78 | 0.94 | 1.42 | 1.49 |
| xG difference | -0.21 | 0.47 | -0.11 | -0.26 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.37 | -0.51 | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| xPts / match | 1.34 | 1.68 | 1.24 | 1.17 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.04 | -0.28 | 0.16 | -0.17 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 50% | 30% | 60% | 20% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.20 | 2.33 | 2.17 | 1.50 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 0.88 |
| Came back from behind | 25% | 60% | 33% | 33% |
| Leads held | 60% | 75% | 67% | 75% |
| Minutes leading | 23% | 15% | 38% | 18% |
| Minutes level | 60% | 78% | 32% | 36% |
| Minutes trailing | 17% | 6% | 30% | 47% |
| First goal (min) | 45 | 51 | 26 | 30 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 60 | 61 | 32 | 17 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 67% | 67% | 38% | 40% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 86% | 67% | 47% | 52% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| Late goals against | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 45% | 49% | 50% | 53% |
| Shots | 12.5 | 14.5 | 11.9 | 11.7 |
| On target | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 6% | 13% | 14% |
| Shots inside box | 68% | 61% | 61% | 68% |
| Big chances created | 2.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Corners | 3.4 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| xG from set plays | 36% | 28% | 31% | 22% |
| Goals from headers | 18% | 12% | 7% | 7% |
| Pressure index | 10.7 | 12.6 | 11.8 | 10.1 |
| Dominant minutes | 46.0 | 54.1 | 47.5 | 46.5 |
| Pass accuracy | 80% | 81% | 83% | 86% |
| Fouls | 11.7 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 10.1 |
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nottingham Forest
0–15'21
16–30'10
31–45'11
46–60'34
61–75'22
76–90'36
Chelsea
0–15'53
16–30'24
31–45'32
46–60'24
61–75'33
76–90'11
Nottingham Forest
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 5 50% | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.58 | 1.25 |
| 4-4-2 | 4 40% | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.25 | 1.83 | 2.11 |
| 4-4-1-1 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.46 | 3.07 |
Chelsea
Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 6 · conceding 9
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 5 50% | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.13 | 1.21 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 40% | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.64 | 1.58 |
| 3-4-1-2 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.81 | 1.81 |
| Metric | Nottingham Forest all · 55 | Nottingham Forest at home · 27 | Chelsea all · 53 | Chelsea away · 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 55 | 27 | 53 | 26 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 1.22 | 1.55 | 1.46 |
| W / D / L | 19 / 16 / 20 | 8 / 9 / 10 | 24 / 10 / 19 | 11 / 5 / 10 |
| Goals for / match | 1.36 | 1.15 | 1.85 | 1.92 |
| Goals against / match | 1.20 | 0.96 | 1.45 | 1.62 |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 37% | 24% | 19% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 41% | 15% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 37% | 62% | 73% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 37% | 72% | 81% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.52 | 1.64 | 1.85 | 1.66 |
| xG against / match | 1.40 | 1.19 | 1.32 | 1.45 |
| xG difference | 0.12 | 0.46 | 0.52 | 0.22 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.15 | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| xPts / match | 1.47 | 1.66 | 1.63 | 1.47 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.14 | -0.44 | -0.08 | 0.00 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 36% | 30% | 58% | 46% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.19 | 2.33 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| Came back from behind | 33% | 33% | 34% | 41% |
| Leads held | 76% | 73% | 69% | 79% |
| Minutes leading | 24% | 21% | 34% | 26% |
| Minutes level | 53% | 62% | 40% | 42% |
| Minutes trailing | 23% | 18% | 26% | 32% |
| First goal (min) | 38 | 38 | 33 | 39 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 42 | 46 | 36 | 29 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 60% | 61% | 52% | 58% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 54% | 58% | 52% | 48% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.36 | 0.30 | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| Late goals against | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 48% | 51% | 57% | 56% |
| Shots | 14.2 | 15.7 | 13.9 | 12.8 |
| On target | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 7% | 13% | 15% |
| Shots inside box | 62% | 60% | 66% | 69% |
| Big chances created | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Corners | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 4.7 |
| xG from set plays | 31% | 32% | 29% | 27% |
| Goals from headers | 19% | 10% | 15% | 11% |
| Pressure index | 15.3 | 17.0 | 18.3 | 15.7 |
| Dominant minutes | 52.6 | 57.6 | 57.6 | 52.6 |
| Pass accuracy | 82% | 83% | 86% | 86% |
| Fouls | 11.7 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 11.4 |
| Cards | 1.76 | 1.52 | 2.64 | 2.96 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nottingham Forest
0–15'98
16–30'119
31–45'1013
46–60'1512
61–75'107
76–90'2017
Chelsea
0–15'1113
16–30'1611
31–45'1913
46–60'2012
61–75'1513
76–90'1515
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Nottingham Forest · 55 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: v mid-tier opponents +0.61
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.1755
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0355
Late push (76+, level)-0.0923
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.0423
Game state
When ahead+0.1925
When level+0.1855
When behind+0.1530
10 min after conceding-0.0638
10 min after scoring+0.4737
Situations
With ten men+0.102
At home+0.1027
Away+0.2628
3 days rest or fewer+0.1622
4+ days rest+0.1933
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.0131
v mid-tier opponents+0.6110
v bottom-tier opponents+0.242
As favourite+0.6015
Evenly matched+0.1520
As underdog-0.1220
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.0055
Conceded when ahead+0.0225
Conceded late (76+)-0.2051
Congested vs rested -0.03 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level -0.03
Chelsea · 53 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.32) · stands out: v bottom-tier opponents +1.43
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.3253
Early press (0-15, level)+0.1653
Late push (76+, level)+0.3220
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.0219
Game state
When ahead+0.3734
When level+0.4153
When behind+0.1229
10 min after conceding-0.1340
10 min after scoring+0.5445
Situations
With ten men-0.077
Against ten men+0.503
At home+0.3027
Away+0.3426
3 days rest or fewer+0.3921
4+ days rest+0.2732
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.1732
v mid-tier opponents+0.3010
v bottom-tier opponents+1.433
As favourite+0.4835
Evenly matched+0.1411
As underdog-0.187
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.0653
Conceded when ahead-0.1434
Conceded late (76+)-0.3045
Congested vs rested +0.12 · Ahead vs level -0.04 · Behind vs level -0.29
Nottingham Forest
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 32 58% | 1.41 | 1.38 | 1.0 | 1.51 | 1.27 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 8 14% | 1.25 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.52 | 1.22 |
| 4-4-2 | 6 11% | 1.67 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.66 | 1.71 |
| 3-4-3 | 2 4% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.17 | 2.81 |
| 5-3-2 | 2 4% | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.41 | 2.07 |
Chelsea
Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 6 · conceding 9
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 41 77% | 1.56 | 1.73 | 1.29 | 1.83 | 1.25 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 5 9% | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.73 | 1.63 |
| 4-3-3 | 4 8% | 1.5 | 2.75 | 1.75 | 2.42 | 1.37 |
| 5-4-1 | 1 2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.62 | 2.02 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 1 2% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.18 | 1.3 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.
Latest prices
bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
3.1Home 31% P 31%3.5Draw 27% P 28%2.25Away 42% P 41%
Double Chance
1.61Nottm Forest or Draw 29% P 29%1.28Nottm Forest or Chelsea 37% P 36%1.36Draw or Chelsea 34% P 34%
Draw No Bet
2.11 44%1.662 56%
Both Teams To Score
1.7Yes 55% P 57%2.05No 45% P 43%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.9Over 50% P 51%1.9Under 50% P 49%
Total Corners
13.0Under 6 7%3.66 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 24%8.0Over 14 11%
Number of Cards
4.51.66Over 56% P 51%2.1Under 44% P 49%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 30–32.5% · away 40–42.5% · 560 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 31% | 31% | 31% | -0.2 |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 24% | -4.2 |
| Away | 41% | 41% | 46% | +4.4 |
In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 54%
Both teams to score · yes 55–57.5% · 2,581 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 57% | 56% | 57% | +1.1 |
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 51% | 51% | -0.1 |
Chris Kavanagh
- Career
- 340 matches · 16 seasons
- Cards / match
- 3.95 (3.82 yellow · 0.09 red)
- Fouls / match
- 20.9 · 5.0 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.21
- Cards to home side
- 45%
Style in Premier League (5-year window · 103 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 4.48 | 4.26 | +0.49 | 77 |
| Fouls / match | 21.5 | 21.6 | +0.16 | |
| Fouls per card | 5.0 | 5.1 | -0.51 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.28 | 0.25 | +0.24 | 65 |
| Time added | 8.3 | 8.4 | +0.09 | 38 |
- First card
- 34' on average
- Card timing
- 15% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 44% (league 46%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.33
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 3 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 48' | 4 |
| 2025-09-27 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 10' | 16 |
| 2025-09-20 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 46' | 8 |
| 2025-09-13 | 5 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 7' | 11 |
| 2025-08-31 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 29' | 8 |
| 2025-08-24 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 39' | 7 |
| 2025-08-21 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 39' | 5 |
| 2025-08-18 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 56' | 8 |
| 2025-08-14 | 8 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 29' | 5 |
| 2025-07-31 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 40' | 8 |