Rating 7.04 (91th pct) · G+A 15 + 4 (40% of team goals) · 91% of minutes
Premier League · Matchweek 13
Momentum
– NFOBHA –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
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Stats
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Season context
| Nottingham Forest | at home | Stat | league | away | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.8 #13 | – | Ball possession | 50.0 | – | 54.1 #5 |
| 12.5 #12 | – | Shots total | 12.5 | – | 13.0 #7 |
| 4.1 #10 | – | Shots on target | 4.2 | – | 4.6 #5 |
| 5.2 #9 | – | Corners | 5.0 | – | 4.9 #12 |
| 10.7 #9 | – | Fouls | 10.8 | – | 11.9 #4 |
| 1.6 #7 | – | Offsides | 1.6 | – | 1.7 #6 |
| 16.9 #10 | – | Tackles | 16.7 | – | 17.8 #6 |
| 90.1 #11 | – | Attacks | 93.3 | – | 96.6 #7 |
| 49.4 #8 | – | Dangerous attacks | 49.1 | – | 53.8 #6 |
| 408.4 #12 | – | Passes | 437.0 | – | 477.1 #4 |
| 1.6 #17 | – | Yellowcards | 1.9 | – | 2.3 #4 |
| 0.0 #10 | – | Redcards | 0.0 | – | – |
| 0.9 #9 | – | Assists | 0.9 | – | 0.9 #12 |
| – #17 | – | Btts | 56.1 | – | – #10 |
| – #10 | – | Cleansheet | 25.5 | – | – #7 |
| – #5 | – | Draw | 27.4 | – | – #5 |
| 1.3 #16 | – | Expected goals | 1.5 | – | 1.5 #11 |
| -0.0 #9 | – | Expected goals difference | -0.1 | – | -0.1 #13 |
| – #2 | – | Failed to score | 25.5 | – | – #12 |
| 1.3 #12 | 1.1 | Goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.4 #10 |
| 1.3 #11 | 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 #18 |
| 0.3 #16 | – | Injury time goals | 0.3 | – | 0.5 #2 |
| 8.1 #15 | – | Interceptions | 8.5 | – | 8.7 #10 |
| – #6 | – | Lost | 36.3 | – | – #11 |
| 0.1 #11 | – | Penalties scored | 0.1 | – | 0.1 #11 |
| 6.8 #7 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.8 #11 |
| 4.1 #8 | – | Shots blocked | 3.7 | – | 3.5 #12 |
| 7.8 #16 | – | Shots insidebox | 8.4 | – | 8.7 #6 |
| 4.6 #12 | – | Shots off target | 4.8 | – | 5.1 #8 |
| 4.8 #4 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.1 | – | 4.4 #8 |
| – #14 | – | Win | 36.3 | – | – #7 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 20.
League this season · 2025/2026
- Played
- 380 of 380
- Goals / match
- 2.75 (home 1.53 · away 1.22)
- Home / draw / away
- 43% · 27% · 30%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 56% · 55%
- Cards / match
- 4.09 (reds 0.09)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Nottingham Forest · 2025/2026 · Premier League
Rating 6.93 (65th pct) · G+A 2 + 3 (10% of team goals) · 94% of minutes
Rating 6.88 (79th pct) · G+A 3 + 4 (15% of team goals) · 54% of minutes
Team 1.05 ppg with (21) · 1.29 without (17)
Brighton & Hove Albion · 2025/2026 · Premier League
Rating 6.92 (80th pct) · G+A 3 + 4 (13% of team goals) · 70% of minutes
Team 1.58 ppg with (26) · 1.0 without (12)
Rating 6.93 (82th pct) · G+A 1 + 0 (2% of team goals) · 83% of minutes
Team 1.35 ppg with (31) · 1.57 without (7)
Rating 6.86 (56th pct) · G+A 3 + 3 (12% of team goals) · 56% of minutes
Team 1.5 ppg with (20) · 1.28 without (18)
Absences
Brighton & Hove Albion
- injury Adam Webster defender · Cruciate Ligament Injury · 45 missed · until 2026-06-01
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 13
Venue
- Stadium
- The City Ground, Nottingham
- Capacity
- 30,445
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 30,522
Teams
- Coaches
- Sean Dyche · Fabian Hürzeler
- Position
- 16 · 5
- Formation
- 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Referee
Michael Oliver
Weather
- Conditions
- scattered clouds
- Temperature
- 6.2° (feels 4.0°)
- Wind
- 3.1
- Humidity
- 77%
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2025/2026
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal |
38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 85 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Manchester City |
38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77 | 35 | 42 | 78 | DWWDL |
| 3 |  Manchester United |
38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69 | 50 | 19 | 71 | WWDWW |
| 4 |  Aston Villa |
38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56 | 49 | 7 | 65 | LLDWW |
| 5 |  Liverpool |
38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63 | 53 | 10 | 60 | WLDLD |
| 6 |  AFC Bournemouth |
38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58 | 54 | 4 | 57 | DWWDD |
| 7 |  Sunderland |
38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 54 | LDDWW |
| 8 |  Brighton & Hove Albion |
38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52 | 46 | 6 | 53 | WLWLL |
| 9 |  Brentford |
38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55 | 52 | 3 | 53 | LWLDD |
| 10 |  Chelsea |
38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 52 | LLDWL |
| 11 |  Fulham |
38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 52 | WLLDW |
| 12 |  Newcastle United |
38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 49 | LWDWL |
| 13 |  Everton |
38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 49 | LDDLL |
| 14 |  Leeds United |
38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 47 | DWDWL |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace |
38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 45 | LDLDL |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest |
38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 44 | WWDLD |
| 17 |  Tottenham Hotspur |
38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 41 | WWDLW |
| 18 |  West Ham United |
38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 39 | WLLLW |
| 19 |  Burnley |
38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38 | 75 | -37 | 22 | LLDLD |
| 20 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers |
38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27 | 68 | -41 | 20 | LDLDD |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal |
19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 47 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Manchester City |
19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 45 | 14 | 31 | 45 | DWWDL |
| 3 | Manchester United |
19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 24 | 15 | 42 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Aston Villa |
19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 38 | LLDWW |
| 5 | Liverpool |
19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 36 | WLDLD |
| 6 | Fulham |
19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 35 | WLLDW |
| 7 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 33 | WLWLL |
| 8 | Sunderland |
19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 33 | LDDWW |
| 9 | Brentford |
19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 32 | LWLDD |
| 10 | Leeds United |
19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 21 | 8 | 32 | DWDWL |
| 11 | Newcastle United |
19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 30 | 6 | 32 | LWDWL |
| 12 | AFC Bournemouth |
19 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 31 | DWWDD |
| 13 | Chelsea |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 26 | LLDWL |
| 14 | Everton |
19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 23 | LDDLL |
| 15 | West Ham United |
19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 22 | WLLLW |
| 16 | Crystal Palace |
19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 21 | LDLDL |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest |
19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 20 | WWDLD |
| 18 | Tottenham Hotspur |
19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 15 | WWDLW |
| 19 | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 14 | LDLDD |
| 20 | Burnley |
19 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 13 | LLDLD |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal |
19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Manchester City |
19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 33 | DWWDL |
| 3 | Manchester United |
19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 29 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Aston Villa |
19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 27 | LLDWW |
| 5 | Chelsea |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 26 | LLDWL |
| 6 | Tottenham Hotspur |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 26 | WWDLW |
| 7 | Everton |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 26 | LDDLL |
| 8 | AFC Bournemouth |
19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 26 | DWWDD |
| 9 | Nottingham Forest |
19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 24 | WWDLD |
| 10 | Liverpool |
19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 24 | WLDLD |
| 11 | Crystal Palace |
19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 24 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Brentford |
19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 21 | LWLDD |
| 13 | Sunderland |
19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 21 | LDDWW |
| 14 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 20 | WLWLL |
| 15 | Newcastle United |
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 17 | LWDWL |
| 16 | Fulham |
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 17 | WLLDW |
| 17 | West Ham United |
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 35 | -16 | 17 | WLLLW |
| 18 | Leeds United |
19 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 15 | DWDWL |
| 19 | Burnley |
19 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 20 | 46 | -26 | 9 | LLDLD |
| 20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
19 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 34 | -26 | 6 | LDLDD |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Europa League
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
- Relegation
Nottingham Forest
DDWWW 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 11 GA 3 · xG 9.58–4.36 · xPts 10.37
- W
H
Malmö FF
3–0
xG 2.05–0.06
UEFA EL - W
A
Liverpool
3–0
xG 1.21–2.14
UK PL
- W
H
Leeds United
3–1
xG 2.49–0.56
UK PL
- D
A
Sturm Graz
0–0
xG 1.78–0.1
UEFA EL - D
H
Manchester United
2–2
xG 2.05–1.51
UK PL
LLLWLDDWWW 4W 2D 4L · 14 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 15 GA 13 · xG 16.46–14.18 · xPts 16.0
- W
H
Malmö FF
3–0
xG 2.05–0.06
UEFA EL
- W
A
Liverpool
3–0
xG 1.21–2.14
UK PL
- W
H
Leeds United
3–1
xG 2.49–0.56
UK PL
- D
A
Sturm Graz
0–0
xG 1.78–0.1
UEFA EL
- D
H
Manchester United
2–2
xG 2.05–1.51
UK PL
- L
A
AFC Bournemouth
0–2
xG 0.52–1.78
UK PL
- W
H
Porto
2–0
xG 2.25–0.92
UEFA EL - L
H
Chelsea
0–3
xG 1.78–1.5
UK PL
- L
A
Newcastle United
0–2
xG 0.27–3.27
UK PL
- L
H
FC Midtjylland
2–3
xG 2.06–2.35
UEFA EL
Brighton & Hove Albion
WLWDW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 9 GA 6 · xG 5.99–7.17 · xPts 5.91
- W
H
Brentford
2–1
xG 1.18–2.1
UK PL
- D
A
Crystal Palace
0–0
xG 0.32–1.37
UK PL
- W
H
Leeds United
3–0
xG 2.49–0.53
UK PL
- L
A
Manchester United
2–4
xG 1.23–1.24
UK PL
- W
H
Newcastle United
2–1
xG 0.77–1.92
UK PL
WLDWDWLWDW 5W 3D 2L · 18 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 18 GA 13 · xG 12.61–14.41 · xPts 12.39
- W
H
Brentford
2–1
xG 1.18–2.1
UK PL
- D
A
Crystal Palace
0–0
xG 0.32–1.37
UK PL
- W
H
Leeds United
3–0
xG 2.49–0.53
UK PL
- L
A
Manchester United
2–4
xG 1.23–1.24
UK PL
- W
H
Newcastle United
2–1
xG 0.77–1.92
UK PL
- D
A
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1–1
xG 1.43–0.54
UK PL
- W
A
Chelsea
3–1
xG 1.66–1.58
UK PL
- D
H
Tottenham Hotspur
2–2
xG 1.08–1.39
UK PL
- L
A
AFC Bournemouth
1–2
xG 0.38–1.6
UK PL
- W
H
Manchester City
2–1
xG 2.08–2.14
UK PL
All meetings · 21 matches since 2011
Goals 29–26 · 2.62 per match · BTTS 48% · over 2.5 57%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 18–11 · 2.9 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 10–6 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%
Recent meetings
- L Brighton & Hove Albion 2–1 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- L Nottingham Forest 0–2 Brighton & Hove Albion UK PL · Regular Season
- D Brighton & Hove Albion 0–0 Nottingham Forest pens None–None UK FA Cup · Quarter-finals
- W Nottingham Forest 7–0 Brighton & Hove Albion UK PL · Regular Season
- D Brighton & Hove Albion 2–2 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- L Brighton & Hove Albion 1–0 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- L Nottingham Forest 2–3 Brighton & Hove Albion UK PL · Regular Season
- W Nottingham Forest 3–1 Brighton & Hove Albion UK PL · Regular Season
- D Brighton & Hove Albion 0–0 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- W Nottingham Forest 3–0 Brighton & Hove Albion UK CHAMP · Regular Season
| Metric | Nottingham Forest all · 38 | Nottingham Forest at home · 19 | Brighton & Hove Albion all · 38 | Brighton & Hove Albion away · 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 38 | 19 | 38 | 19 |
| Points per game | 1.16 | 1.05 | 1.39 | 1.05 |
| W / D / L | 11 / 11 / 16 | 4 / 8 / 7 | 14 / 11 / 13 | 5 / 5 / 9 |
| Goals for / match | 1.26 | 1.05 | 1.37 | 1.16 |
| Goals against / match | 1.34 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.37 |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 21% | 26% | 26% |
| Failed to score | 37% | 47% | 24% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 47% | 55% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 42% | 50% | 42% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.30 | 1.55 | 1.52 | 1.49 |
| xG against / match | 1.59 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.52 |
| xG difference | -0.30 | 0.18 | 0.15 | -0.03 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.03 | -0.50 | -0.15 | -0.33 |
| xPts / match | 1.22 | 1.49 | 1.48 | 1.36 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.06 | -0.43 | -0.09 | -0.31 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 29% | 21% | 42% | 26% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.45 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.40 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.58 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.54 |
| Came back from behind | 33% | 42% | 41% | 36% |
| Leads held | 73% | 57% | 74% | 83% |
| Minutes leading | 19% | 16% | 26% | 13% |
| Minutes level | 53% | 67% | 45% | 50% |
| Minutes trailing | 28% | 17% | 29% | 37% |
| First goal (min) | 39 | 38 | 46 | 54 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 40 | 49 | 40 | 34 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 60% | 60% | 62% | 68% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 53% | 65% | 46% | 46% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| Late goals against | 0.39 | 0.53 | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 47% | 49% | 54% | 53% |
| Shots | 12.5 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 12.3 |
| On target | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.3 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 7% | 10% | 9% |
| Shots inside box | 62% | 60% | 66% | 69% |
| Big chances created | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| Corners | 5.2 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| xG from set plays | 24% | 24% | 28% | 28% |
| Goals from headers | 23% | 21% | 15% | 23% |
| Pressure index | 12.8 | 14.2 | 13.6 | 12.6 |
| Dominant minutes | 48.7 | 56.1 | 51.8 | 49.1 |
| Pass accuracy | 81% | 82% | 84% | 83% |
| Fouls | 10.7 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 12.5 |
| Cards | 1.61 | 1.32 | 2.26 | 2.74 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nottingham Forest
0–15'86
16–30'26
31–45'912
46–60'109
61–75'63
76–90'1315
Brighton & Hove Albion
0–15'96
16–30'48
31–45'711
46–60'75
61–75'95
76–90'1611
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Nottingham Forest · 4 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.06) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.52
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.064
Early press (0-15, level)-0.434
Late push (76+, level)-0.394
Game state
When ahead+0.652
When level-0.094
10 min after conceding-0.523
10 min after scoring+0.742
Situations
At home-0.262
Away+0.372
4+ days rest+0.064
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.372
Evenly matched+0.093
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.004
Conceded when ahead-0.202
Conceded late (76+)-0.354
Ahead vs level +0.75 · Behind vs level -0.62
Brighton & Hove Albion · 6 matches
Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.59) · stands out: when level +0.95
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.596
Early press (0-15, level)+0.676
Late push (76+, level)+0.942
Game state
When ahead-0.093
When level+0.956
When behind+0.432
10 min after conceding-0.042
10 min after scoring+0.515
Situations
At home+0.463
Away+0.673
3 days rest or fewer+0.232
4+ days rest+0.744
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.232
As favourite+0.744
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.226
Conceded when ahead-0.073
Conceded late (76+)-0.403
Congested vs rested -0.51 · Ahead vs level -1.04 · Behind vs level -0.52
Nottingham Forest
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 29 76% | 1.21 | 1.14 | 1.21 | 1.29 | 1.44 |
| 4-4-2 | 4 10% | 1.75 | 2.75 | 1.25 | 1.63 | 2.14 |
| 5-3-2 | 2 5% | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.41 | 2.07 |
| 4-5-1 | 1 3% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.62 | 1.37 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 1 3% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.51 | 1.3 |
Brighton & Hove Albion
Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 1 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 33 87% | 1.48 | 1.42 | 1.21 | 1.57 | 1.32 |
| 4-3-3 | 4 10% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 1 3% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.99 | 3.32 |
| Metric | Nottingham Forest all · 10 | Nottingham Forest at home · 10 | Brighton & Hove Albion all · 10 | Brighton & Hove Albion away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| W / D / L | 3 / 4 / 3 | 3 / 5 / 2 | 4 / 2 / 4 | 4 / 2 / 4 |
| Goals for / match | 1.20 | 0.90 | 2.10 | 1.60 |
| Goals against / match | 1.40 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 10% | 70% | 50% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.57 | 1.41 | 2.14 | 1.78 |
| xG against / match | 1.78 | 0.94 | 1.28 | 1.52 |
| xG difference | -0.21 | 0.47 | 0.85 | 0.26 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.37 | -0.51 | -0.04 | -0.18 |
| xPts / match | 1.34 | 1.68 | 1.89 | 1.56 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.04 | -0.28 | -0.49 | -0.16 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 50% | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.20 | 2.33 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Came back from behind | 25% | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| Leads held | 60% | 75% | 100% | 100% |
| Minutes leading | 23% | 15% | 33% | 22% |
| Minutes level | 60% | 78% | 37% | 53% |
| Minutes trailing | 17% | 6% | 31% | 26% |
| First goal (min) | 45 | 51 | 33 | 44 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 60 | 61 | 31 | 37 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 67% | 67% | 48% | 62% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 86% | 67% | 33% | 46% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Late goals against | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 45% | 49% | 69% | 61% |
| Shots | 12.5 | 14.5 | 18.3 | 15.8 |
| On target | 4.0 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 5.4 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 6% | 12% | 10% |
| Shots inside box | 68% | 61% | 70% | 70% |
| Big chances created | 2.9 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 2.8 |
| Corners | 3.4 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 5.9 |
| xG from set plays | 36% | 28% | 25% | 25% |
| Goals from headers | 18% | 12% | 26% | 7% |
| Pressure index | 10.7 | 12.6 | 21.5 | 15.6 |
| Dominant minutes | 46.0 | 54.1 | 69.4 | 54.7 |
| Pass accuracy | 80% | 81% | 87% | 84% |
| Fouls | 11.7 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 13.5 |
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | 1.40 | 1.80 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nottingham Forest
0–15'21
16–30'10
31–45'11
46–60'34
61–75'22
76–90'36
Brighton & Hove Albion
0–15'34
16–30'31
31–45'53
46–60'11
61–75'41
76–90'52
Nottingham Forest
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 5 50% | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.58 | 1.25 |
| 4-4-2 | 4 40% | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.25 | 1.83 | 2.11 |
| 4-4-1-1 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.46 | 3.07 |
Brighton & Hove Albion
Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 1 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 9 90% | 1.22 | 1.89 | 1.33 | 2.09 | 1.38 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.58 | 0.38 |
| Metric | Nottingham Forest all · 55 | Nottingham Forest at home · 27 | Brighton & Hove Albion all · 42 | Brighton & Hove Albion away · 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 55 | 27 | 42 | 22 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 1.22 | 1.50 | 1.23 |
| W / D / L | 19 / 16 / 20 | 8 / 9 / 10 | 17 / 12 / 13 | 7 / 6 / 9 |
| Goals for / match | 1.36 | 1.15 | 1.60 | 1.41 |
| Goals against / match | 1.20 | 0.96 | 1.17 | 1.36 |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 37% | 33% | 32% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 41% | 24% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 37% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 37% | 55% | 50% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.52 | 1.64 | 1.62 | 1.56 |
| xG against / match | 1.40 | 1.19 | 1.39 | 1.61 |
| xG difference | 0.12 | 0.46 | 0.23 | -0.05 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.15 | -0.50 | -0.03 | -0.15 |
| xPts / match | 1.47 | 1.66 | 1.53 | 1.37 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.14 | -0.44 | -0.03 | -0.14 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 36% | 30% | 45% | 32% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.47 | 2.57 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| Came back from behind | 33% | 33% | 41% | 36% |
| Leads held | 76% | 73% | 81% | 88% |
| Minutes leading | 24% | 21% | 30% | 18% |
| Minutes level | 53% | 62% | 43% | 49% |
| Minutes trailing | 23% | 18% | 27% | 32% |
| First goal (min) | 38 | 38 | 42 | 49 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 42 | 46 | 40 | 38 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 60% | 61% | 55% | 68% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 54% | 58% | 45% | 47% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.36 | 0.30 | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| Late goals against | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 48% | 51% | 57% | 55% |
| Shots | 14.2 | 15.7 | 14.5 | 14.0 |
| On target | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 7% | 11% | 10% |
| Shots inside box | 62% | 60% | 66% | 69% |
| Big chances created | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| Corners | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.1 |
| xG from set plays | 31% | 32% | 25% | 28% |
| Goals from headers | 19% | 10% | 15% | 17% |
| Pressure index | 15.3 | 17.0 | 15.5 | 13.8 |
| Dominant minutes | 52.6 | 57.6 | 54.8 | 49.8 |
| Pass accuracy | 82% | 83% | 84% | 84% |
| Fouls | 11.7 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 13.3 |
| Cards | 1.76 | 1.52 | 2.12 | 2.50 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nottingham Forest
0–15'98
16–30'119
31–45'1013
46–60'1512
61–75'107
76–90'2017
Brighton & Hove Albion
0–15'119
16–30'76
31–45'1212
46–60'65
61–75'126
76–90'1911
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Nottingham Forest · 55 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: v mid-tier opponents +0.61
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.1755
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0355
Late push (76+, level)-0.0923
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.0423
Game state
When ahead+0.1925
When level+0.1855
When behind+0.1530
10 min after conceding-0.0638
10 min after scoring+0.4737
Situations
With ten men+0.102
At home+0.1027
Away+0.2628
3 days rest or fewer+0.1622
4+ days rest+0.1933
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.0131
v mid-tier opponents+0.6110
v bottom-tier opponents+0.242
As favourite+0.6015
Evenly matched+0.1520
As underdog-0.1220
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.0055
Conceded when ahead+0.0225
Conceded late (76+)-0.2051
Congested vs rested -0.03 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level -0.03
Brighton & Hove Albion · 42 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: late push (76+, level) +0.44
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.1742
Early press (0-15, level)+0.4042
Late push (76+, level)+0.4418
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.0616
Game state
When ahead+0.0621
When level+0.3242
When behind+0.0422
10 min after conceding-0.0928
10 min after scoring+0.4332
Situations
Against ten men-0.334
At home+0.1820
Away+0.1722
3 days rest or fewer+0.258
4+ days rest+0.1634
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.1224
v mid-tier opponents+0.029
v bottom-tier opponents+0.742
As favourite+0.2921
Evenly matched+0.1811
As underdog-0.0810
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.0042
Conceded when ahead-0.1021
Conceded late (76+)-0.1336
Congested vs rested +0.10 · Ahead vs level -0.26 · Behind vs level -0.28
Nottingham Forest
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 32 58% | 1.41 | 1.38 | 1.0 | 1.51 | 1.27 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 8 14% | 1.25 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.52 | 1.22 |
| 4-4-2 | 6 11% | 1.67 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.66 | 1.71 |
| 5-3-2 | 2 4% | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.41 | 2.07 |
| 3-4-3 | 2 4% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.17 | 2.81 |
Brighton & Hove Albion
Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 1 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 35 83% | 1.6 | 1.66 | 1.14 | 1.66 | 1.35 |
| 4-3-3 | 6 14% | 1.17 | 1.33 | 1.17 | 1.52 | 1.28 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 1 2% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.99 | 3.32 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.
Latest prices
bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
3.0Home 32% P 33%3.3Draw 29% P 29%2.45Away 39% P 38%
Double Chance
1.5Nottm Forest or Draw 31% P 31%1.33Nottm Forest or Brighton 35% P 35%1.4Draw or Brighton 33% P 34%
Draw No Bet
2.01 46%1.722 54%
Both Teams To Score
1.7Yes 55% P 57%2.05No 45% P 43%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.9Over 50% P 49%1.9Under 50% P 51%
Total Corners
11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%
Number of Cards
4.51.9Over 49% P 45%1.8Under 51% P 55%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 37.5–40% · 491 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 33% | 34% | 31% | -2.8 |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 28% | -0.1 |
| Away | 38% | 39% | 42% | +3.0 |
In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 59% · over 2.5 53%
Both teams to score · yes 55–57.5% · 2,581 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 57% | 56% | 57% | +1.1 |
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 49% | 50% | +1.3 |
Michael Oliver
- Career
- 622 matches · 18 seasons
- Cards / match
- 3.53 (3.38 yellow · 0.08 red)
- Fouls / match
- 20.9 · 4.9 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.29
- Cards to home side
- 46%
Style in Premier League (5-year window · 134 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 3.81 | 4.26 | -0.77 | 15 |
| Fouls / match | 22.0 | 21.6 | +0.45 | |
| Fouls per card | 5.9 | 5.1 | +1.02 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.22 | 0.25 | -0.46 | 38 |
| Time added | 8.1 | 8.4 | -0.08 | 23 |
- First card
- 41' on average
- Card timing
- 12% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 46% (league 46%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.11
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-26 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 23' | 7 |
| 2025-11-23 | 4 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 32' | 7 |
| 2025-11-01 · Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 73' | 5 |
| 2025-10-26 | 5 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 40' | 9 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 51' | 11 |
| 2025-10-19 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 52' | 12 |
| 2025-10-01 | 6 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 32' | 6 |
| 2025-09-27 | 4 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 12' | 7 |
| 2025-09-20 | 5 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 43' | 12 |
| 2025-09-17 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 17' | 6 |