Rating 7.04 (91th pct) · G+A 15 + 4 (40% of team goals) · 91% of minutes
Premier League · Matchweek 32
Momentum
– NFOAston Villa –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
- No events yet.
Stats
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Season context
| Nottingham Forest | at home | Stat | league | away | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.8 #13 | – | Ball possession | 50.0 | – | 53.5 #6 |
| 12.5 #12 | – | Shots total | 12.5 | – | 12.7 #10 |
| 4.1 #10 | – | Shots on target | 4.2 | – | 4.5 #8 |
| 5.2 #9 | – | Corners | 5.0 | – | 5.2 #8 |
| 10.7 #9 | – | Fouls | 10.8 | – | 10.0 #19 |
| 1.6 #7 | – | Offsides | 1.6 | – | 1.1 #20 |
| 16.9 #10 | – | Tackles | 16.7 | – | 15.4 #15 |
| 90.1 #11 | – | Attacks | 93.3 | – | 84.5 #19 |
| 49.4 #8 | – | Dangerous attacks | 49.1 | – | 49.1 #9 |
| 408.4 #12 | – | Passes | 437.0 | – | 450.8 #8 |
| 1.6 #17 | – | Yellowcards | 1.9 | – | 1.6 #19 |
| 0.0 #10 | – | Redcards | 0.0 | – | 0.0 #10 |
| 0.9 #9 | – | Assists | 0.9 | – | 1.1 #5 |
| – #17 | – | Btts | 56.1 | – | – #7 |
| – #10 | – | Cleansheet | 25.5 | – | – #10 |
| – #5 | – | Draw | 27.4 | – | – #17 |
| 1.3 #16 | – | Expected goals | 1.5 | – | 1.4 #13 |
| -0.0 #9 | – | Expected goals difference | -0.1 | – | 0.1 #3 |
| – #2 | – | Failed to score | 25.5 | – | – #10 |
| 1.3 #12 | 1.1 | Goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 #7 |
| 1.3 #11 | 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 #16 |
| 0.3 #16 | – | Injury time goals | 0.3 | – | 0.3 #5 |
| 8.1 #15 | – | Interceptions | 8.5 | – | 6.4 #20 |
| – #6 | – | Lost | 36.3 | – | – #16 |
| 0.1 #11 | – | Penalties scored | 0.1 | – | – |
| 6.8 #7 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.8 #12 |
| 4.1 #8 | – | Shots blocked | 3.7 | – | 3.7 #10 |
| 7.8 #16 | – | Shots insidebox | 8.4 | – | 8.0 #13 |
| 4.6 #12 | – | Shots off target | 4.8 | – | 4.6 #10 |
| 4.8 #4 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.1 | – | 4.7 #5 |
| – #14 | – | Win | 36.3 | – | – #4 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 20.
League this season · 2025/2026
- Played
- 380 of 380
- Goals / match
- 2.75 (home 1.53 · away 1.22)
- Home / draw / away
- 43% · 27% · 30%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 56% · 55%
- Cards / match
- 4.09 (reds 0.09)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Nottingham Forest · 2025/2026 · Premier League
Rating 6.93 (65th pct) · G+A 2 + 3 (10% of team goals) · 94% of minutes
Rating 6.88 (79th pct) · G+A 3 + 4 (15% of team goals) · 54% of minutes
Team 1.05 ppg with (21) · 1.29 without (17)
Aston Villa · 2025/2026 · Premier League
Rating 6.9 (61th pct) · G+A 5 + 4 (16% of team goals) · 63% of minutes
Team 1.93 ppg with (28) · 1.1 without (10)
Rating 6.87 (62th pct) · G+A 3 + 3 (11% of team goals) · 88% of minutes
Rating 6.95 (70th pct) · G+A 2 + 0 (4% of team goals) · 52% of minutes
Team 1.76 ppg with (21) · 1.65 without (17)
Absences
Nottingham Forest
- injury Eric da Silva Moreira defender · Unknown Injury · 2 missed
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 32
Venue
- Stadium
- The City Ground, Nottingham
- Capacity
- 30,445
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 30,591
Teams
- Coaches
- Vítor de Oliveira Lopes Pereira · Unai Emery
- Position
- 16 · 4
- Formation
- 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Referee
Michael Salisbury
Weather
- Conditions
- broken clouds
- Temperature
- 11.0° (feels 10.2°)
- Wind
- 5.1
- Humidity
- 78%
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2025/2026
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal |
38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 85 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Manchester City |
38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77 | 35 | 42 | 78 | DWWDL |
| 3 |  Manchester United |
38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69 | 50 | 19 | 71 | WWDWW |
| 4 |  Aston Villa |
38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56 | 49 | 7 | 65 | LLDWW |
| 5 |  Liverpool |
38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63 | 53 | 10 | 60 | WLDLD |
| 6 |  AFC Bournemouth |
38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58 | 54 | 4 | 57 | DWWDD |
| 7 |  Sunderland |
38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 54 | LDDWW |
| 8 |  Brighton & Hove Albion |
38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52 | 46 | 6 | 53 | WLWLL |
| 9 |  Brentford |
38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55 | 52 | 3 | 53 | LWLDD |
| 10 |  Chelsea |
38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 52 | LLDWL |
| 11 |  Fulham |
38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 52 | WLLDW |
| 12 |  Newcastle United |
38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 49 | LWDWL |
| 13 |  Everton |
38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 49 | LDDLL |
| 14 |  Leeds United |
38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 47 | DWDWL |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace |
38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 45 | LDLDL |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest |
38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 44 | WWDLD |
| 17 |  Tottenham Hotspur |
38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 41 | WWDLW |
| 18 |  West Ham United |
38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 39 | WLLLW |
| 19 |  Burnley |
38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38 | 75 | -37 | 22 | LLDLD |
| 20 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers |
38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27 | 68 | -41 | 20 | LDLDD |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal |
19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 47 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Manchester City |
19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 45 | 14 | 31 | 45 | DWWDL |
| 3 | Manchester United |
19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 24 | 15 | 42 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Aston Villa |
19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 38 | LLDWW |
| 5 | Liverpool |
19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 36 | WLDLD |
| 6 | Fulham |
19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 35 | WLLDW |
| 7 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 33 | WLWLL |
| 8 | Sunderland |
19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 33 | LDDWW |
| 9 | Brentford |
19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 32 | LWLDD |
| 10 | Leeds United |
19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 21 | 8 | 32 | DWDWL |
| 11 | Newcastle United |
19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 30 | 6 | 32 | LWDWL |
| 12 | AFC Bournemouth |
19 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 31 | DWWDD |
| 13 | Chelsea |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 26 | LLDWL |
| 14 | Everton |
19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 23 | LDDLL |
| 15 | West Ham United |
19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 22 | WLLLW |
| 16 | Crystal Palace |
19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 21 | LDLDL |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest |
19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 20 | WWDLD |
| 18 | Tottenham Hotspur |
19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 15 | WWDLW |
| 19 | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 14 | LDLDD |
| 20 | Burnley |
19 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 13 | LLDLD |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal |
19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Manchester City |
19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 33 | DWWDL |
| 3 | Manchester United |
19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 29 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Aston Villa |
19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 27 | LLDWW |
| 5 | Chelsea |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 26 | LLDWL |
| 6 | Tottenham Hotspur |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 26 | WWDLW |
| 7 | Everton |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 26 | LDDLL |
| 8 | AFC Bournemouth |
19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 26 | DWWDD |
| 9 | Nottingham Forest |
19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 24 | WWDLD |
| 10 | Liverpool |
19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 24 | WLDLD |
| 11 | Crystal Palace |
19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 24 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Brentford |
19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 21 | LWLDD |
| 13 | Sunderland |
19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 21 | LDDWW |
| 14 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 20 | WLWLL |
| 15 | Newcastle United |
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 17 | LWDWL |
| 16 | Fulham |
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 17 | WLLDW |
| 17 | West Ham United |
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 35 | -16 | 17 | WLLLW |
| 18 | Leeds United |
19 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 15 | DWDWL |
| 19 | Burnley |
19 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 20 | 46 | -26 | 9 | LLDLD |
| 20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
19 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 34 | -26 | 6 | LDLDD |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Europa League
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
- Relegation
Nottingham Forest
LDWWD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 6 GA 3 · xG 6.35–6.05 · xPts 7.12
- D
A
Porto
1–1
xG 0.51–2.04
UEFA EL - W
A
Tottenham Hotspur
3–0
xG 1.24–1.41
UK PL
- W
A
FC Midtjylland
2–1 won on pens None–None
xG 1.89–0.96
UEFA EL - D
H
Fulham
0–0
xG 0.88–1.15
UK PL
- L
H
FC Midtjylland
0–1
xG 1.83–0.49
UEFA EL
WLLLDLDWWD 3W 3D 4L · 12 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 13 GA 10 · xG 12.48–14.27 · xPts 12.77
- D
A
Porto
1–1
xG 0.51–2.04
UEFA EL
- W
A
Tottenham Hotspur
3–0
xG 1.24–1.41
UK PL
- W
A
FC Midtjylland
2–1 won on pens None–None
xG 1.89–0.96
UEFA EL
- D
H
Fulham
0–0
xG 0.88–1.15
UK PL
- L
H
FC Midtjylland
0–1
xG 1.83–0.49
UEFA EL
- D
A
Manchester City
2–2
xG 1.04–2.64
UK PL
- L
A
Brighton & Hove Albion
1–2
xG 0.85–1.16
UK PL
- L
H
Fenerbahçe
1–2
xG 0.78–1.92
UEFA EL - L
H
Liverpool
0–1
xG 1.21–1.89
UK PL
- W
A
Fenerbahçe
3–0
xG 2.25–0.6
UEFA EL
Aston Villa
WLWWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 9 GA 4 · xG 5.7–4.26 · xPts 7.73
- W
A
Bologna
3–1
xG 0.99–1.15
UEFA EL - W
H
West Ham United
2–0
xG 2.22–1.03
UK PL
- W
H
LOSC Lille
2–0
xG 1.06–0.46
UEFA EL - L
A
Manchester United
1–3
xG 0.76–1.24
UK PL
- W
A
LOSC Lille
1–0
xG 0.67–0.39
UEFA EL
WLDLLWLWWW 5W 1D 4L · 16 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 13 GA 14 · xG 11.82–10.77 · xPts 14.75
- W
A
Bologna
3–1
xG 0.99–1.15
UEFA EL
- W
H
West Ham United
2–0
xG 2.22–1.03
UK PL
- W
H
LOSC Lille
2–0
xG 1.06–0.46
UEFA EL
- L
A
Manchester United
1–3
xG 0.76–1.24
UK PL
- W
A
LOSC Lille
1–0
xG 0.67–0.39
UEFA EL
- L
H
Chelsea
1–4
xG 1.05–3.03
UK PL
- L
A
Wolverhampton Wanderers
0–2
xG 1.27–0.88
UK PL
- D
H
Leeds United
1–1
xG 1.79–0.9
UK PL
- L
H
Newcastle United
1–3
xG 1.08–1.13
UK FA Cup
- W
H
Brighton & Hove Albion
1–0
xG 0.93–0.57
UK PL
All meetings · 17 matches since 2016
Goals 24–33 · 3.35 per match · BTTS 71% · over 2.5 65%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 12–18 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 5–9 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%
Recent meetings
- W Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- L Aston Villa 4–0 Nottingham Forest UEFA EL · Semi-finals · leg 2/2
- W Nottingham Forest 1–0 Aston Villa UEFA EL · Semi-finals · leg 1/2
- D Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa UK PL · Regular Season
- L Aston Villa 3–1 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- L Aston Villa 2–1 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- W Nottingham Forest 2–1 Aston Villa UK PL · Regular Season
- L Aston Villa 4–2 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- W Nottingham Forest 2–0 Aston Villa UK PL · Regular Season
- L Aston Villa 2–0 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
| Metric | Nottingham Forest all · 38 | Nottingham Forest at home · 19 | Aston Villa all · 38 | Aston Villa away · 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 38 | 19 | 38 | 19 |
| Points per game | 1.16 | 1.05 | 1.71 | 1.42 |
| W / D / L | 11 / 11 / 16 | 4 / 8 / 7 | 19 / 8 / 11 | 7 / 6 / 6 |
| Goals for / match | 1.26 | 1.05 | 1.47 | 1.26 |
| Goals against / match | 1.34 | 1.21 | 1.29 | 1.42 |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 21% | 24% | 16% |
| Failed to score | 37% | 47% | 26% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 47% | 58% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 42% | 53% | 47% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.30 | 1.55 | 1.37 | 1.27 |
| xG against / match | 1.59 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.59 |
| xG difference | -0.30 | 0.18 | 0.01 | -0.31 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.03 | -0.50 | 0.10 | -0.01 |
| xPts / match | 1.22 | 1.49 | 1.38 | 1.17 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.06 | -0.43 | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 29% | 21% | 42% | 21% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.45 | 2.00 | 2.44 | 1.50 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.58 | 0.75 | 1.21 | 1.46 |
| Came back from behind | 33% | 42% | 45% | 54% |
| Leads held | 73% | 57% | 79% | 64% |
| Minutes leading | 19% | 16% | 24% | 14% |
| Minutes level | 53% | 67% | 52% | 57% |
| Minutes trailing | 28% | 17% | 25% | 29% |
| First goal (min) | 39 | 38 | 43 | 44 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 40 | 49 | 35 | 33 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 60% | 60% | 62% | 67% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 53% | 65% | 53% | 52% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| Late goals against | 0.39 | 0.53 | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 47% | 49% | 54% | 54% |
| Shots | 12.5 | 15.0 | 12.7 | 11.7 |
| On target | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 7% | 12% | 11% |
| Shots inside box | 62% | 60% | 63% | 62% |
| Big chances created | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Corners | 5.2 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| xG from set plays | 24% | 24% | 27% | 27% |
| Goals from headers | 23% | 21% | 18% | 21% |
| Pressure index | 12.8 | 14.2 | 14.1 | 13.7 |
| Dominant minutes | 48.7 | 56.1 | 51.3 | 46.7 |
| Pass accuracy | 81% | 82% | 85% | 85% |
| Fouls | 10.7 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 9.9 |
| Cards | 1.61 | 1.32 | 1.58 | 1.74 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nottingham Forest
0–15'86
16–30'26
31–45'912
46–60'109
61–75'63
76–90'1315
Aston Villa
0–15'49
16–30'65
31–45'119
46–60'1110
61–75'107
76–90'149
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Nottingham Forest · 4 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.06) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.52
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.064
Early press (0-15, level)-0.434
Late push (76+, level)-0.394
Game state
When ahead+0.652
When level-0.094
10 min after conceding-0.523
10 min after scoring+0.742
Situations
At home-0.262
Away+0.372
4+ days rest+0.064
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.372
Evenly matched+0.093
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.004
Conceded when ahead-0.202
Conceded late (76+)-0.354
Ahead vs level +0.75 · Behind vs level -0.62
Aston Villa · 5 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.10) · stands out: when behind -0.62
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.105
Early press (0-15, level)+0.455
Late push (76+, level)+0.352
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.762
Game state
When level+0.125
When behind-0.623
10 min after conceding-0.484
10 min after scoring+0.382
Situations
At home-0.392
Away+0.163
4+ days rest-0.134
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.353
Evenly matched-0.133
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.175
Conceded late (76+)-0.064
Congested vs rested +0.11 · Ahead vs level -0.22 · Behind vs level -0.74
Nottingham Forest
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 29 76% | 1.21 | 1.14 | 1.21 | 1.29 | 1.44 |
| 4-4-2 | 4 10% | 1.75 | 2.75 | 1.25 | 1.63 | 2.14 |
| 5-3-2 | 2 5% | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.41 | 2.07 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 1 3% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.51 | 1.3 |
| 3-4-3 | 1 3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.27 | 3.27 |
Aston Villa
Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 34 90% | 1.56 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.32 |
| 4-4-2 | 3 8% | 3.0 | 2.67 | 0.67 | 1.66 | 2.08 |
| 4-2-2-2 | 1 3% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.37 | 0.4 |
| Metric | Nottingham Forest all · 10 | Nottingham Forest at home · 10 | Aston Villa all · 10 | Aston Villa away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| W / D / L | 3 / 4 / 3 | 3 / 5 / 2 | 4 / 2 / 4 | 3 / 3 / 4 |
| Goals for / match | 1.20 | 0.90 | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals against / match | 1.40 | 0.60 | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 10% | 80% | 60% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.57 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.36 |
| xG against / match | 1.78 | 0.94 | 1.49 | 1.43 |
| xG difference | -0.21 | 0.47 | -0.07 | -0.06 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.37 | -0.51 | 0.25 | -0.14 |
| xPts / match | 1.34 | 1.68 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.04 | -0.28 | 0.15 | -0.07 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 50% | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.20 | 2.33 | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Came back from behind | 25% | 60% | 33% | 33% |
| Leads held | 60% | 75% | 80% | 60% |
| Minutes leading | 23% | 15% | 22% | 19% |
| Minutes level | 60% | 78% | 50% | 52% |
| Minutes trailing | 17% | 6% | 28% | 29% |
| First goal (min) | 45 | 51 | 43 | 35 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 60 | 61 | 29 | 29 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 67% | 67% | 50% | 33% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 86% | 67% | 50% | 29% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| Late goals against | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 45% | 49% | 47% | 51% |
| Shots | 12.5 | 14.5 | 13.0 | 13.4 |
| On target | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 6% | 12% | 9% |
| Shots inside box | 68% | 61% | 68% | 69% |
| Big chances created | 2.9 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Corners | 3.4 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| xG from set plays | 36% | 28% | 31% | 29% |
| Goals from headers | 18% | 12% | 12% | 8% |
| Pressure index | 10.7 | 12.6 | 11.8 | 13.2 |
| Dominant minutes | 46.0 | 54.1 | 45.9 | 50.5 |
| Pass accuracy | 80% | 81% | 84% | 85% |
| Fouls | 11.7 | 12.0 | 10.7 | 10.0 |
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | 2.20 | 1.90 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nottingham Forest
0–15'21
16–30'10
31–45'11
46–60'34
61–75'22
76–90'36
Aston Villa
0–15'12
16–30'15
31–45'61
46–60'44
61–75'32
76–90'12
Nottingham Forest
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 5 50% | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.58 | 1.25 |
| 4-4-2 | 4 40% | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.25 | 1.83 | 2.11 |
| 4-4-1-1 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.46 | 3.07 |
Aston Villa
Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 10 100% | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.41 | 1.49 |
| Metric | Nottingham Forest all · 55 | Nottingham Forest at home · 27 | Aston Villa all · 57 | Aston Villa away · 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 55 | 27 | 57 | 30 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 1.22 | 1.91 | 1.70 |
| W / D / L | 19 / 16 / 20 | 8 / 9 / 10 | 34 / 7 / 16 | 15 / 6 / 9 |
| Goals for / match | 1.36 | 1.15 | 1.67 | 1.43 |
| Goals against / match | 1.20 | 0.96 | 1.19 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 37% | 30% | 23% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 41% | 18% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 37% | 56% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 37% | 58% | 57% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.52 | 1.64 | 1.46 | 1.29 |
| xG against / match | 1.40 | 1.19 | 1.25 | 1.39 |
| xG difference | 0.12 | 0.46 | 0.21 | -0.10 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.15 | -0.50 | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| xPts / match | 1.47 | 1.66 | 1.51 | 1.31 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.14 | -0.44 | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 36% | 30% | 56% | 43% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.53 | 2.31 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.53 | 0.60 | 1.13 | 1.27 |
| Came back from behind | 33% | 33% | 38% | 44% |
| Leads held | 76% | 73% | 83% | 75% |
| Minutes leading | 24% | 21% | 32% | 26% |
| Minutes level | 53% | 62% | 48% | 52% |
| Minutes trailing | 23% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
| First goal (min) | 38 | 38 | 40 | 39 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 42 | 46 | 40 | 37 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 60% | 61% | 56% | 54% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 54% | 58% | 56% | 50% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.36 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| Late goals against | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 48% | 51% | 52% | 52% |
| Shots | 14.2 | 15.7 | 12.7 | 11.9 |
| On target | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 7% | 13% | 12% |
| Shots inside box | 62% | 60% | 65% | 65% |
| Big chances created | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Corners | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 4.7 |
| xG from set plays | 31% | 32% | 29% | 27% |
| Goals from headers | 19% | 10% | 17% | 19% |
| Pressure index | 15.3 | 17.0 | 15.0 | 14.3 |
| Dominant minutes | 52.6 | 57.6 | 52.0 | 48.8 |
| Pass accuracy | 82% | 83% | 85% | 85% |
| Fouls | 11.7 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 10.5 |
| Cards | 1.76 | 1.52 | 1.67 | 1.97 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nottingham Forest
0–15'98
16–30'119
31–45'1013
46–60'1512
61–75'107
76–90'2017
Aston Villa
0–15'99
16–30'128
31–45'2113
46–60'1714
61–75'1411
76–90'2213
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Nottingham Forest · 55 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: v mid-tier opponents +0.61
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.1755
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0355
Late push (76+, level)-0.0923
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.0423
Game state
When ahead+0.1925
When level+0.1855
When behind+0.1530
10 min after conceding-0.0638
10 min after scoring+0.4737
Situations
With ten men+0.102
At home+0.1027
Away+0.2628
3 days rest or fewer+0.1622
4+ days rest+0.1933
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.0131
v mid-tier opponents+0.6110
v bottom-tier opponents+0.242
As favourite+0.6015
Evenly matched+0.1520
As underdog-0.1220
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.0055
Conceded when ahead+0.0225
Conceded late (76+)-0.2051
Congested vs rested -0.03 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level -0.03
Aston Villa · 57 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.19) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.48
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.1957
Early press (0-15, level)+0.2157
Late push (76+, level)+0.3316
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.0615
Game state
When ahead+0.2541
When level+0.2357
When behind+0.0126
10 min after conceding-0.0940
10 min after scoring+0.4846
Situations
Against ten men+0.102
At home+0.1627
Away+0.2230
3 days rest or fewer+0.1020
4+ days rest+0.2537
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.0733
v mid-tier opponents+0.2213
v bottom-tier opponents+0.262
As favourite+0.4025
Evenly matched+0.0822
As underdog-0.0510
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.0457
Conceded when ahead-0.1741
Conceded late (76+)-0.2652
Congested vs rested -0.15 · Ahead vs level +0.02 · Behind vs level -0.22
Nottingham Forest
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 32 58% | 1.41 | 1.38 | 1.0 | 1.51 | 1.27 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 8 14% | 1.25 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.52 | 1.22 |
| 4-4-2 | 6 11% | 1.67 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.66 | 1.71 |
| 5-3-2 | 2 4% | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.41 | 2.07 |
| 4-3-3 | 2 4% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.91 | 0.84 |
Aston Villa
Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 53 93% | 1.83 | 1.6 | 1.23 | 1.45 | 1.22 |
| 4-4-2 | 3 5% | 3.0 | 2.67 | 0.67 | 1.66 | 2.08 |
| 4-2-2-2 | 1 2% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.37 | 0.4 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.
Latest prices
bet365 · pre-match line -0.2h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
2.3Home 41% P 39%3.4Draw 28% P 29%3.0Away 31% P 33%
Double Chance
1.44Nottm Forest or Draw 32%1.33Nottm Forest or Aston Villa 35%1.44Draw or Aston Villa 32%
Draw No Bet
1.831 50%1.832 50%
Both Teams To Score
1.7Yes 55%2.05No 45%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.9Over 50% P 48%1.9Under 50% P 52%
Total Corners
11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%
Number of Cards
3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 32.5–35% · 571 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 39% | 39% | 39% | +0.5 |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 28% | -0.0 |
| Away | 33% | 34% | 33% | -0.4 |
In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 46%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 49% | 50% | +1.3 |
Michael Salisbury
- Career
- 139 matches · 12 seasons
- Cards / match
- 3.52 (3.35 yellow · 0.14 red)
- Fouls / match
- 21.6 · 5.9 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.26
- Cards to home side
- 48%
Style in Premier League (5-year window · 62 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 4.16 | 4.26 | -0.11 | 46 |
| Fouls / match | 22.7 | 21.6 | +0.83 | |
| Fouls per card | 5.5 | 5.1 | +0.27 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.37 | 0.25 | +1.31 | 92 |
| Time added | 8.9 | 8.4 | +0.60 | 81 |
- First card
- 37' on average
- Card timing
- 14% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 48% (league 46%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.26
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 18' | 10 |
| 2026-03-21 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 16' | 5 |
| 2026-02-01 · Nottingham Forest | 4 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 31' | 7 |
| 2026-01-24 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 45' | 7 |
| 2026-01-07 | 5 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 7' | 13 |
| 2025-12-30 | 8 | 0 | 29 | 3 | 13' | 10 |
| 2025-12-08 | 5 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 38' | 11 |
| 2025-12-02 | 6 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 22' | 7 |
| 2025-11-22 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 45' | 13 |
| 2025-11-08 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 25' | 10 |