Rating 7.04 (91th pct) · G+A 15 + 4 (40% of team goals) · 91% of minutes
Premier League · Matchweek 33
Momentum
– NFOBurnley –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
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Stats
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Season context
| Nottingham Forest | at home | Stat | league | away | Burnley |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.8 #13 | – | Ball possession | 50.0 | – | 42.3 #20 |
| 12.5 #12 | – | Shots total | 12.5 | – | 9.3 #20 |
| 4.1 #10 | – | Shots on target | 4.2 | – | 3.1 #20 |
| 5.2 #9 | – | Corners | 5.0 | – | 3.6 #18 |
| 10.7 #9 | – | Fouls | 10.8 | – | 10.4 #13 |
| 1.6 #7 | – | Offsides | 1.6 | – | 1.5 #13 |
| 16.9 #10 | – | Tackles | 16.7 | – | 16.8 #12 |
| 90.1 #11 | – | Attacks | 93.3 | – | 85.4 #16 |
| 49.4 #8 | – | Dangerous attacks | 49.1 | – | 39.3 #19 |
| 408.4 #12 | – | Passes | 437.0 | – | 384.9 #16 |
| 1.6 #17 | – | Yellowcards | 1.9 | – | 1.7 #13 |
| 0.0 #10 | – | Redcards | 0.0 | – | 0.1 #6 |
| 0.9 #9 | – | Assists | 0.9 | – | 0.7 #15 |
| – #17 | – | Btts | 56.1 | – | – #7 |
| – #10 | – | Cleansheet | 25.5 | – | – #19 |
| – #5 | – | Draw | 27.4 | – | – #11 |
| 1.3 #16 | – | Expected goals | 1.5 | – | 0.9 #20 |
| -0.0 #9 | – | Expected goals difference | -0.1 | – | 0.1 #1 |
| – #2 | – | Failed to score | 25.5 | – | – #2 |
| 1.3 #12 | 1.1 | Goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.0 #19 |
| 1.3 #11 | 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 #1 |
| 0.3 #16 | – | Injury time goals | 0.3 | – | 0.3 #16 |
| 8.1 #15 | – | Interceptions | 8.5 | – | 9.4 #3 |
| – #6 | – | Lost | 36.3 | – | – #1 |
| 0.1 #11 | – | Penalties scored | 0.1 | – | 0.1 #16 |
| 6.8 #7 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.7 #20 |
| 4.1 #8 | – | Shots blocked | 3.7 | – | 3.1 #16 |
| 7.8 #16 | – | Shots insidebox | 8.4 | – | 5.7 #20 |
| 4.6 #12 | – | Shots off target | 4.8 | – | 3.3 #20 |
| 4.8 #4 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.1 | – | 3.7 #13 |
| – #14 | – | Win | 36.3 | – | – #19 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 20.
League this season · 2025/2026
- Played
- 380 of 380
- Goals / match
- 2.75 (home 1.53 · away 1.22)
- Home / draw / away
- 43% · 27% · 30%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 56% · 55%
- Cards / match
- 4.09 (reds 0.09)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Nottingham Forest · 2025/2026 · Premier League
Rating 6.93 (65th pct) · G+A 2 + 3 (10% of team goals) · 94% of minutes
Rating 6.88 (79th pct) · G+A 3 + 4 (15% of team goals) · 54% of minutes
Team 1.05 ppg with (21) · 1.29 without (17)
Burnley · 2025/2026 · Premier League
Rating 6.7 (50th pct) · G+A 1 + 4 (13% of team goals) · 36% of minutes
Team 0.73 ppg with (15) · 0.48 without (23)
Rating 6.55 (8th pct) · G+A 0 + 2 (5% of team goals) · 91% of minutes
Rating 6.76 (83th pct) · G+A 0 + 0 (0% of team goals) · 46% of minutes
Team 0.59 ppg with (17) · 0.57 without (21)
Absences
Nottingham Forest
- injury Eric da Silva Moreira defender · Unknown Injury · 2 missed
- injury John Victor #18 key player goalkeeper · Knee Surgery · 27 missed · until 2026-05-16
- injury Nicolò Savona #13 key player defender · Knee Injury · 23 missed · until 2026-06-29
- injury Willy Boly defender · Knee Injury · 26 missed
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 33
Venue
- Stadium
- The City Ground, Nottingham
- Capacity
- 30,445
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 29,458
Teams
- Coaches
- Vítor de Oliveira Lopes Pereira · Scott Parker
- Position
- 16 · 19
- Formation
- 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Referee
Thomas Kirk
Weather
- Conditions
- few clouds
- Temperature
- 13.3° (feels 11.9°)
- Wind
- 3.1
- Humidity
- 48%
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2025/2026
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal |
38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 85 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Manchester City |
38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77 | 35 | 42 | 78 | DWWDL |
| 3 |  Manchester United |
38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69 | 50 | 19 | 71 | WWDWW |
| 4 |  Aston Villa |
38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56 | 49 | 7 | 65 | LLDWW |
| 5 |  Liverpool |
38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63 | 53 | 10 | 60 | WLDLD |
| 6 |  AFC Bournemouth |
38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58 | 54 | 4 | 57 | DWWDD |
| 7 |  Sunderland |
38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 54 | LDDWW |
| 8 |  Brighton & Hove Albion |
38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52 | 46 | 6 | 53 | WLWLL |
| 9 |  Brentford |
38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55 | 52 | 3 | 53 | LWLDD |
| 10 |  Chelsea |
38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 52 | LLDWL |
| 11 |  Fulham |
38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 52 | WLLDW |
| 12 |  Newcastle United |
38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 49 | LWDWL |
| 13 |  Everton |
38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 49 | LDDLL |
| 14 |  Leeds United |
38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 47 | DWDWL |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace |
38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 45 | LDLDL |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest |
38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 44 | WWDLD |
| 17 |  Tottenham Hotspur |
38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 41 | WWDLW |
| 18 |  West Ham United |
38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 39 | WLLLW |
| 19 |  Burnley |
38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38 | 75 | -37 | 22 | LLDLD |
| 20 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers |
38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27 | 68 | -41 | 20 | LDLDD |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal |
19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 47 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Manchester City |
19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 45 | 14 | 31 | 45 | DWWDL |
| 3 | Manchester United |
19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 24 | 15 | 42 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Aston Villa |
19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 38 | LLDWW |
| 5 | Liverpool |
19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 36 | WLDLD |
| 6 | Fulham |
19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 35 | WLLDW |
| 7 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 33 | WLWLL |
| 8 | Sunderland |
19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 33 | LDDWW |
| 9 | Brentford |
19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 32 | LWLDD |
| 10 | Leeds United |
19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 21 | 8 | 32 | DWDWL |
| 11 | Newcastle United |
19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 30 | 6 | 32 | LWDWL |
| 12 | AFC Bournemouth |
19 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 31 | DWWDD |
| 13 | Chelsea |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 26 | LLDWL |
| 14 | Everton |
19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 23 | LDDLL |
| 15 | West Ham United |
19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 22 | WLLLW |
| 16 | Crystal Palace |
19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 21 | LDLDL |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest |
19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 20 | WWDLD |
| 18 | Tottenham Hotspur |
19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 15 | WWDLW |
| 19 | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 14 | LDLDD |
| 20 | Burnley |
19 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 13 | LLDLD |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal |
19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Manchester City |
19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 33 | DWWDL |
| 3 | Manchester United |
19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 29 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Aston Villa |
19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 27 | LLDWW |
| 5 | Chelsea |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 26 | LLDWL |
| 6 | Tottenham Hotspur |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 26 | WWDLW |
| 7 | Everton |
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 26 | LDDLL |
| 8 | AFC Bournemouth |
19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 26 | DWWDD |
| 9 | Nottingham Forest |
19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 24 | WWDLD |
| 10 | Liverpool |
19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 24 | WLDLD |
| 11 | Crystal Palace |
19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 24 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Brentford |
19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 21 | LWLDD |
| 13 | Sunderland |
19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 21 | LDDWW |
| 14 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 20 | WLWLL |
| 15 | Newcastle United |
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 17 | LWDWL |
| 16 | Fulham |
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 17 | WLLDW |
| 17 | West Ham United |
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 35 | -16 | 17 | WLLLW |
| 18 | Leeds United |
19 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 15 | DWDWL |
| 19 | Burnley |
19 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 20 | 46 | -26 | 9 | LLDLD |
| 20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
19 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 34 | -26 | 6 | LDLDD |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Europa League
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
- Relegation
Nottingham Forest
WWDDW 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 8 GA 3 · xG 6.89–6.38 · xPts 7.23
- W
H
Porto
1–0
xG 2.11–0.71
UEFA EL - D
H
Aston Villa
1–1
xG 1.13–1.27
UK PL
- D
A
Porto
1–1
xG 0.51–2.04
UEFA EL
- W
A
Tottenham Hotspur
3–0
xG 1.24–1.41
UK PL
- W
A
FC Midtjylland
2–1 won on pens None–None
xG 1.89–0.96
UEFA EL
LLDLDWWDDW 3W 4D 3L · 13 pts (1.3 ppg) · GF 12 GA 10 · xG 12.26–13.75 · xPts 12.96
- W
H
Porto
1–0
xG 2.11–0.71
UEFA EL
- D
H
Aston Villa
1–1
xG 1.13–1.27
UK PL
- D
A
Porto
1–1
xG 0.51–2.04
UEFA EL
- W
A
Tottenham Hotspur
3–0
xG 1.24–1.41
UK PL
- W
A
FC Midtjylland
2–1 won on pens None–None
xG 1.89–0.96
UEFA EL
- D
H
Fulham
0–0
xG 0.88–1.15
UK PL
- L
H
FC Midtjylland
0–1
xG 1.83–0.49
UEFA EL
- D
A
Manchester City
2–2
xG 1.04–2.64
UK PL
- L
A
Brighton & Hove Albion
1–2
xG 0.85–1.16
UK PL
- L
H
Fenerbahçe
1–2
xG 0.78–1.92
UEFA EL
Burnley
LLDLL 0W 1D 4L · 1 pts (0.2 ppg) · GF 4 GA 11 · xG 5.59–11.45 · xPts 3.63
- L
H
Brighton & Hove Albion
0–2
xG 0.65–2.51
UK PL
- L
A
Fulham
1–3
xG 1.56–3.08
UK PL
- D
H
AFC Bournemouth
0–0
xG 1.73–2.1
UK PL
- L
A
Everton
0–2
xG 0.51–1.14
UK PL
- L
H
Brentford
3–4
xG 1.13–2.61
UK PL
LLWLDLLDLL 1W 2D 7L · 5 pts (0.5 ppg) · GF 9 GA 21 · xG 11.97–19.09 · xPts 9.76
- L
H
Brighton & Hove Albion
0–2
xG 0.65–2.51
UK PL
- L
A
Fulham
1–3
xG 1.56–3.08
UK PL
- D
H
AFC Bournemouth
0–0
xG 1.73–2.1
UK PL
- L
A
Everton
0–2
xG 0.51–1.14
UK PL
- L
H
Brentford
3–4
xG 1.13–2.61
UK PL
- D
A
Chelsea
1–1
xG 1.07–2.19
UK PL
- L
H
Mansfield Town
1–2
xG 2.75–0.71
UK FA Cup - W
A
Crystal Palace
3–2
xG 0.54–2.18
UK PL
- L
H
West Ham United
0–2
xG 1.92–0.58
UK PL
- L
A
Sunderland
0–3
xG 0.1–1.99
UK PL
All meetings · 16 matches since 2008
Goals 18–26 · 2.75 per match · BTTS 62% · over 2.5 38%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 14–11 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 30%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 8–5 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 40%
Recent meetings
- W Nottingham Forest 4–1 Burnley UK PL · Regular Season
- D Burnley 1–1 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- W Burnley 1–2 Nottingham Forest UK PL · Regular Season
- D Nottingham Forest 1–1 Burnley UK PL · Regular Season
- L Burnley 1–0 Nottingham Forest UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- D Nottingham Forest 1–1 Burnley UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- L Burnley 3–1 Nottingham Forest UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- D Nottingham Forest 1–1 Burnley neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- D Burnley 1–1 Nottingham Forest UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- W Nottingham Forest 2–0 Burnley UK CHAMP · Regular Season
| Metric | Nottingham Forest all · 38 | Nottingham Forest at home · 19 | Burnley all · 38 | Burnley away · 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 38 | 19 | 38 | 19 |
| Points per game | 1.16 | 1.05 | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| W / D / L | 11 / 11 / 16 | 4 / 8 / 7 | 4 / 10 / 24 | 2 / 3 / 14 |
| Goals for / match | 1.26 | 1.05 | 1.00 | 1.05 |
| Goals against / match | 1.34 | 1.21 | 1.97 | 2.42 |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 21% | 10% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 37% | 47% | 37% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 47% | 58% | 74% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 42% | 50% | 68% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.30 | 1.55 | 0.89 | 0.81 |
| xG against / match | 1.59 | 1.37 | 2.14 | 2.29 |
| xG difference | -0.30 | 0.18 | -1.25 | -1.49 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.03 | -0.50 | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| xPts / match | 1.22 | 1.49 | 0.70 | 0.54 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.06 | -0.43 | -0.12 | -0.06 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 29% | 21% | 21% | 21% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.45 | 2.00 | 1.38 | 0.75 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.58 | 0.75 | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| Came back from behind | 33% | 42% | 27% | 22% |
| Leads held | 73% | 57% | 40% | 40% |
| Minutes leading | 19% | 16% | 9% | 6% |
| Minutes level | 53% | 67% | 47% | 44% |
| Minutes trailing | 28% | 17% | 44% | 50% |
| First goal (min) | 39 | 38 | 48 | 61 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 40 | 49 | 31 | 34 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 60% | 60% | 58% | 60% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 53% | 65% | 49% | 59% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| Late goals against | 0.39 | 0.53 | 0.45 | 0.58 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 47% | 49% | 42% | 41% |
| Shots | 12.5 | 15.0 | 9.3 | 7.8 |
| On target | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 7% | 11% | 13% |
| Shots inside box | 62% | 60% | 61% | 58% |
| Big chances created | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Corners | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| xG from set plays | 24% | 24% | 35% | 36% |
| Goals from headers | 23% | 21% | 16% | 21% |
| Pressure index | 12.8 | 14.2 | 6.0 | 4.5 |
| Dominant minutes | 48.7 | 56.1 | 29.9 | 27.6 |
| Pass accuracy | 81% | 82% | 78% | 78% |
| Fouls | 10.7 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.8 |
| Cards | 1.61 | 1.32 | 1.84 | 2.21 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nottingham Forest
0–15'86
16–30'26
31–45'912
46–60'109
61–75'63
76–90'1315
Burnley
0–15'314
16–30'56
31–45'818
46–60'710
61–75'510
76–90'1017
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Nottingham Forest · 4 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.06) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.52
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.064
Early press (0-15, level)-0.434
Late push (76+, level)-0.394
Game state
When ahead+0.652
When level-0.094
10 min after conceding-0.523
10 min after scoring+0.742
Situations
At home-0.262
Away+0.372
4+ days rest+0.064
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.372
Evenly matched+0.093
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.004
Conceded when ahead-0.202
Conceded late (76+)-0.354
Ahead vs level +0.75 · Behind vs level -0.62
Burnley · 7 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.06) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.40
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.067
Early press (0-15, level)-0.227
Late push (76+, level)-0.404
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.224
Game state
When ahead+0.123
When level-0.117
When behind-0.066
10 min after conceding-0.167
10 min after scoring+0.197
Situations
At home-0.213
Away+0.064
3 days rest or fewer-0.052
4+ days rest-0.075
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents-0.045
Evenly matched-0.173
As underdog+0.103
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.167
Conceded when ahead+0.533
Conceded late (76+)+0.326
Congested vs rested +0.02 · Ahead vs level +0.23 · Behind vs level +0.05
Nottingham Forest
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 29 76% | 1.21 | 1.14 | 1.21 | 1.29 | 1.44 |
| 4-4-2 | 4 10% | 1.75 | 2.75 | 1.25 | 1.63 | 2.14 |
| 5-3-2 | 2 5% | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.41 | 2.07 |
| 4-5-1 | 1 3% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.62 | 1.37 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 1 3% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.51 | 1.3 |
Burnley
Current: winless 20 · scoring 8 · conceding 15
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 13 34% | 0.92 | 1.31 | 1.85 | 1.07 | 2.31 |
| 5-4-1 | 9 24% | 0.11 | 0.44 | 2.22 | 0.61 | 2.16 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 8 21% | 0.88 | 1.5 | 2.13 | 0.67 | 2.29 |
| 4-3-3 | 3 8% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.33 | 1.22 | 2.02 |
| 4-4-2 | 2 5% | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.63 | 1.19 |
| Metric | Nottingham Forest all · 10 | Nottingham Forest at home · 10 | Burnley all · 10 | Burnley away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| W / D / L | 3 / 4 / 3 | 3 / 5 / 2 | 0 / 5 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 8 |
| Goals for / match | 1.20 | 0.90 | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| Goals against / match | 1.40 | 0.60 | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | 10% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 90% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 10% | 60% | 60% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.57 | 1.41 | 1.25 | 0.96 |
| xG against / match | 1.78 | 0.94 | 1.62 | 1.87 |
| xG difference | -0.21 | 0.47 | -0.37 | -0.91 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.37 | -0.51 | -0.15 | -0.16 |
| xPts / match | 1.34 | 1.68 | 1.10 | 0.79 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.04 | -0.28 | -0.60 | -0.59 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 50% | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.20 | 2.33 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.17 |
| Came back from behind | 25% | 60% | 44% | 11% |
| Leads held | 60% | 75% | 0% | 0% |
| Minutes leading | 23% | 15% | 11% | 7% |
| Minutes level | 60% | 78% | 43% | 35% |
| Minutes trailing | 17% | 6% | 46% | 58% |
| First goal (min) | 45 | 51 | 41 | 48 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 60 | 61 | 29 | 30 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 67% | 67% | 64% | 50% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 86% | 67% | 45% | 60% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| Late goals against | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 45% | 49% | 49% | 47% |
| Shots | 12.5 | 14.5 | 13.7 | 10.8 |
| On target | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.4 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 6% | 8% | 7% |
| Shots inside box | 68% | 61% | 54% | 60% |
| Big chances created | 2.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Corners | 3.4 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.1 |
| xG from set plays | 36% | 28% | 20% | 19% |
| Goals from headers | 18% | 12% | 0% | 12% |
| Pressure index | 10.7 | 12.6 | 9.1 | 7.8 |
| Dominant minutes | 46.0 | 54.1 | 42.2 | 41.6 |
| Pass accuracy | 80% | 81% | 82% | 83% |
| Fouls | 11.7 | 12.0 | 11.8 | 11.0 |
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | 2.20 | 2.40 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nottingham Forest
0–15'21
16–30'10
31–45'11
46–60'34
61–75'22
76–90'36
Burnley
0–15'25
16–30'23
31–45'03
46–60'53
61–75'04
76–90'22
Nottingham Forest
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 5 50% | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.58 | 1.25 |
| 4-4-2 | 4 40% | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.25 | 1.83 | 2.11 |
| 4-4-1-1 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.46 | 3.07 |
Burnley
Current: winless 20 · scoring 8 · conceding 15
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 9 90% | 0.44 | 1.11 | 2.11 | 1.29 | 1.69 |
| 4-3-2-1 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.01 |
| Metric | Nottingham Forest all · 55 | Nottingham Forest at home · 27 | Burnley all · 43 | Burnley away · 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 55 | 27 | 43 | 21 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 1.22 | 0.58 | 0.48 |
| W / D / L | 19 / 16 / 20 | 8 / 9 / 10 | 4 / 13 / 26 | 2 / 4 / 15 |
| Goals for / match | 1.36 | 1.15 | 1.12 | 1.05 |
| Goals against / match | 1.20 | 0.96 | 2.02 | 2.43 |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 37% | 7% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 41% | 28% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 37% | 70% | 81% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 37% | 56% | 67% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.52 | 1.64 | 1.06 | 0.85 |
| xG against / match | 1.40 | 1.19 | 1.92 | 2.09 |
| xG difference | 0.12 | 0.46 | -0.86 | -1.24 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.15 | -0.50 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| xPts / match | 1.47 | 1.66 | 0.88 | 0.64 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.14 | -0.44 | -0.30 | -0.16 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 36% | 30% | 28% | 29% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.60 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| Came back from behind | 33% | 33% | 30% | 21% |
| Leads held | 76% | 73% | 29% | 29% |
| Minutes leading | 24% | 21% | 11% | 8% |
| Minutes level | 53% | 62% | 44% | 42% |
| Minutes trailing | 23% | 18% | 45% | 50% |
| First goal (min) | 38 | 38 | 45 | 54 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 42 | 46 | 32 | 33 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 60% | 61% | 52% | 50% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 54% | 58% | 49% | 55% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.36 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| Late goals against | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 48% | 51% | 45% | 44% |
| Shots | 14.2 | 15.7 | 10.8 | 9.2 |
| On target | 4.8 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 7% | 10% | 11% |
| Shots inside box | 62% | 60% | 62% | 58% |
| Big chances created | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Corners | 5.2 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| xG from set plays | 31% | 32% | 29% | 28% |
| Goals from headers | 19% | 10% | 13% | 19% |
| Pressure index | 15.3 | 17.0 | 7.9 | 5.9 |
| Dominant minutes | 52.6 | 57.6 | 35.2 | 32.0 |
| Pass accuracy | 82% | 83% | 80% | 80% |
| Fouls | 11.7 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 10.8 |
| Cards | 1.76 | 1.52 | 1.95 | 2.24 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nottingham Forest
0–15'98
16–30'119
31–45'1013
46–60'1512
61–75'107
76–90'2017
Burnley
0–15'517
16–30'88
31–45'1019
46–60'811
61–75'513
76–90'1219
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Nottingham Forest · 55 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: v mid-tier opponents +0.61
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.1755
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0355
Late push (76+, level)-0.0923
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.0423
Game state
When ahead+0.1925
When level+0.1855
When behind+0.1530
10 min after conceding-0.0638
10 min after scoring+0.4737
Situations
With ten men+0.102
At home+0.1027
Away+0.2628
3 days rest or fewer+0.1622
4+ days rest+0.1933
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.0131
v mid-tier opponents+0.6110
v bottom-tier opponents+0.242
As favourite+0.6015
Evenly matched+0.1520
As underdog-0.1220
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.0055
Conceded when ahead+0.0225
Conceded late (76+)-0.2051
Congested vs rested -0.03 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level -0.03
Burnley · 43 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.25) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.47
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.2543
Early press (0-15, level)-0.2943
Late push (76+, level)-0.4719
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.3227
Game state
When ahead-0.2414
When level-0.2943
When behind-0.2037
10 min after conceding-0.2839
10 min after scoring+0.0731
Situations
With ten men-0.362
At home-0.2322
Away-0.2721
3 days rest or fewer-0.218
4+ days rest-0.2635
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.3425
v mid-tier opponents-0.0712
As favourite-0.023
Evenly matched-0.075
As underdog-0.2935
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.4443
Conceded when ahead+0.8114
Conceded late (76+)+0.3940
Congested vs rested +0.05 · Ahead vs level +0.05 · Behind vs level +0.09
Nottingham Forest
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 32 58% | 1.41 | 1.38 | 1.0 | 1.51 | 1.27 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 8 14% | 1.25 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.52 | 1.22 |
| 4-4-2 | 6 11% | 1.67 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.66 | 1.71 |
| 5-3-2 | 2 4% | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.41 | 2.07 |
| 4-3-3 | 2 4% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.91 | 0.84 |
Burnley
Current: winless 20 · scoring 8 · conceding 15
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 19 44% | 0.74 | 1.37 | 2.05 | 1.38 | 1.93 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 8 19% | 0.88 | 1.5 | 2.13 | 0.67 | 2.29 |
| 5-4-1 | 7 16% | 0.14 | 0.57 | 2.29 | 0.61 | 1.89 |
| 4-3-3 | 3 7% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.33 | 1.22 | 2.02 |
| 3-4-3 | 2 5% | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.17 | 2.26 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.
Latest prices
bet365 · pre-match line -0.0h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
1.45Home 65% P 66%4.5Draw 21% P 21%7.0Away 14% P 13%
Double Chance
1.11Nottm Forest or Draw 42%1.2Nottm Forest or Burnley 39%2.5Draw or Burnley 19%
Draw No Bet
1.161 81%5.02 19%
Both Teams To Score
1.8Yes 52%1.95No 48%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.72Over 55% P 56%2.1Under 45% P 44%
Total Corners
11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%
Number of Cards
3.52.0Over 46% P 44%1.72Under 54% P 56%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 65–67.5% · away 12.5–15% · 566 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 66% | 66% | 69% | +3.3 |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 20% | -0.7 |
| Away | 13% | 14% | 11% | -2.7 |
In those fixtures: 3.1 goals a game · BTTS 51% · over 2.5 58%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,507 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% | 56% | -0.2 |
Thomas Kirk
- Career
- 51 matches · 5 seasons
- Cards / match
- 4.55 (4.39 yellow · 0.04 red)
- Fouls / match
- 22.1 · 4.8 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.26
- Cards to home side
- 45%
Style in Premier League (5-year window · 5 matches)
Fewer than 10 matches with card data in this league — averages only: 5.0 cards, 24.0 fouls per match.
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | 7 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 26' | 8 |
| 2026-04-06 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 13' | 9 |
| 2026-03-21 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 38' | 2 |
| 2026-03-14 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 51' | 10 |
| 2026-03-10 | 4 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 42' | 8 |
| 2026-03-02 | 6 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 58' | 9 |
| 2026-02-22 | 8 | 1 | 32 | 1 | 15' | 11 |
| 2026-02-15 | 7 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 33' | 7 |
| 2026-02-08 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 12' | 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 18' | 11 |