Rating 7.14 (95th pct) · G+A 4 + 1 (8% of team goals) · 90% of minutes
Eredivisie · Matchweek 7
Momentum
– AjaxNAC Breda –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
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Stats
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Season context
| Ajax | at home | Stat | league | away | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56.4 #3 | – | Ball possession | 50.0 | – | 49.0 #10 |
| 14.9 #9 | – | Shots total | 14.1 | – | 14.1 #10 |
| 5.9 #5 | – | Shots on target | 5.2 | – | 4.2 #15 |
| 4.9 #11 | – | Corners | 5.2 | – | 5.8 #5 |
| 10.2 #13 | – | Fouls | 10.9 | – | 10.8 #10 |
| 1.4 #8 | – | Offsides | 1.4 | – | 1.4 #9 |
| 16.7 #8 | – | Tackles | 16.2 | – | 16.2 #12 |
| 102.1 #6 | – | Attacks | 97.3 | – | 97.7 #10 |
| 51.3 #5 | – | Dangerous attacks | 46.1 | – | 45.6 #8 |
| 529.1 #2 | – | Passes | 419.2 | – | 395.1 #13 |
| 1.7 #7 | – | Yellowcards | 1.6 | – | 1.6 #9 |
| 0.0 #11 | – | Redcards | 0.1 | – | 0.2 #1 |
| 1.4 #4 | – | Assists | 1.2 | – | 0.7 #18 |
| – #5 | – | Btts | 62.8 | – | – #17 |
| – #2 | – | Cleansheet | 20.2 | – | – #10 |
| – #1 | – | Draw | 26.2 | – | – #4 |
| 1.7 #7 | – | Expected goals | 1.6 | – | 1.3 #14 |
| 0.1 #5 | – | Expected goals difference | -0.0 | – | -0.3 #16 |
| – #16 | – | Failed to score | 20.3 | – | – #2 |
| 1.8 #4 | 1.8 | Goals | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 #16 |
| 1.2 #18 | 0.9 | Goals conceded | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.7 #5 |
| 0.2 #15 | – | Injury time goals | 0.3 | – | 0.3 #10 |
| 9.6 #3 | – | Interceptions | 8.8 | – | 8.1 #14 |
| – #17 | – | Lost | 37.0 | – | – #3 |
| 0.0 #16 | – | Penalties scored | 0.1 | – | 0.1 #3 |
| 6.9 #2 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.8 #14 |
| 3.9 #9 | – | Shots blocked | 3.8 | – | 3.7 #10 |
| 10.1 #7 | – | Shots insidebox | 9.2 | – | 8.6 #10 |
| 5.1 #11 | – | Shots off target | 5.1 | – | 6.2 #1 |
| 4.8 #9 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.9 | – | 5.5 #4 |
| – #6 | – | Win | 36.8 | – | – #17 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 18.
League this season · 2025/2026
- Played
- 309 of 309
- Goals / match
- 3.17 (home 1.8 · away 1.37)
- Home / draw / away
- 45% · 26% · 29%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 63% · 61%
- Cards / match
- 3.47 (reds 0.1)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Ajax · 2025/2026 · Eredivisie
Rating 6.96 (65th pct) · G+A 8 + 2 (15% of team goals) · 61% of minutes
Team 1.91 ppg with (23) · 1.23 without (13)
Rating 7.32 (97th pct) · G+A 4 + 2 (9% of team goals) · 39% of minutes
Team 1.69 ppg with (16) · 1.65 without (20)
NAC Breda
No ranked players yet.
Absences
Ajax
- injury Branco van den Boomen midfielder · Back Injury · 22 missed · until 2025-11-29
- injury Kasper Dolberg #9 key player attacker · Injury To Abdominal Muscles · 8 missed · until 2025-11-08
NAC Breda
- injury Moussa Soumano attacker · Bruised Knee · 13 missed · until 2025-11-07
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 7
Venue
- Stadium
- Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
- Capacity
- 55,885
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 55,865
Teams
- Coaches
- John Heitinga · Carl Hoefkens
- Position
- 3 · 13
- Formation
- 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Referee
Marc Nagtegaal
Weather
- Conditions
- broken clouds
- Temperature
- 16.6° (feels 15.8°)
- Wind
- 3.0
- Humidity
- 58%
Where to watch · 281
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2025/2026
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV |
34 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 101 | 45 | 56 | 84 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Feyenoord |
34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 44 | 26 | 65 | DWWDW |
| 3 |  NEC Nijmegen |
34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 77 | 53 | 24 | 59 | DDDLW |
| 4 |  FC Twente |
34 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 59 | 40 | 19 | 58 | WDDWL |
| 5 |  Ajax |
34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 62 | 41 | 21 | 56 | WWDLD |
| 6 |  FC Utrecht |
34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 55 | 42 | 13 | 53 | WLWWW |
| 7 |  AZ Alkmaar |
34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 58 | 51 | 7 | 52 | WDDDD |
| 8 |  SC Heerenveen |
34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 51 | LWWLD |
| 9 |  FC Groningen |
34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 48 | DLLWW |
| 10 |  Sparta Rotterdam |
34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 43 | LLDLL |
| 11 |  Fortuna Sittard |
34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 49 | 63 | -14 | 39 | DLLWL |
| 12 |  Go Ahead Eagles |
34 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 54 | 53 | 1 | 38 | DDDLL |
| 13 |  Excelsior |
34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 43 | 56 | -13 | 38 | DWWDW |
| 14 |  Telstar |
34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 37 | LWDWW |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle |
34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 37 | DLWLL |
| 16 |  FC Volendam |
34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 35 | 55 | -20 | 32 | LWLDL |
| 17 |  NAC Breda |
34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 35 | 58 | -23 | 29 | DLLWD |
| 18 |  Heracles Almelo |
34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 35 | 85 | -50 | 19 | LLLLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV |
17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 58 | 26 | 32 | 41 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Feyenoord |
17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 23 | 16 | 36 | DWWDW |
| 3 | FC Utrecht |
17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 33 | WLWWW |
| 4 | NEC Nijmegen |
17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 41 | 25 | 16 | 32 | DDDLW |
| 5 | FC Twente |
17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 32 | WDDWL |
| 6 | Ajax |
17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 31 | WWDLD |
| 7 | AZ Alkmaar |
17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 39 | 26 | 13 | 31 | WDDDD |
| 8 | SC Heerenveen |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 30 | LWWLD |
| 9 | PEC Zwolle |
17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 28 | DLWLL |
| 10 | Go Ahead Eagles |
17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 34 | 24 | 10 | 25 | DDDLL |
| 11 | FC Groningen |
17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 25 | DLLWW |
| 12 | Fortuna Sittard |
17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 25 | DLLWL |
| 13 | FC Volendam |
17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 23 | 1 | 23 | LWLDL |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam |
17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 23 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Telstar |
17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 20 | LWDWW |
| 16 | NAC Breda |
17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 20 | DLLWD |
| 17 | Excelsior |
17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 18 | DWWDW |
| 18 | Heracles Almelo |
17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 36 | -13 | 15 | LLLLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV |
17 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 43 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Feyenoord |
17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 21 | 10 | 29 | DWWDW |
| 3 | NEC Nijmegen |
17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 36 | 28 | 8 | 27 | DDDLW |
| 4 | FC Twente |
17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 30 | 24 | 6 | 26 | WDDWL |
| 5 | Ajax |
17 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 30 | 24 | 6 | 25 | WWDLD |
| 6 | FC Groningen |
17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 23 | DLLWW |
| 7 | SC Heerenveen |
17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 21 | LWWLD |
| 8 | AZ Alkmaar |
17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 21 | WDDDD |
| 9 | FC Utrecht |
17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 20 | WLWWW |
| 10 | Excelsior |
17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 20 | DWWDW |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam |
17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 35 | -16 | 20 | LLDLL |
| 12 | Telstar |
17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 17 | LWDWW |
| 13 | Fortuna Sittard |
17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 14 | DLLWL |
| 14 | Go Ahead Eagles |
17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 13 | DDDLL |
| 15 | NAC Breda |
17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 35 | -20 | 9 | DLLWD |
| 16 | FC Volendam |
17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 32 | -21 | 9 | LWLDL |
| 17 | PEC Zwolle |
17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 23 | 50 | -27 | 9 | DLWLL |
| 18 | Heracles Almelo |
17 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 12 | 49 | -37 | 4 | LLLLL |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
- UEFA Europa League Qualifiers
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers Play-off
- Relegation Play-off
- Relegation
Ajax
WDWLD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 8 GA 6 · xG 9.21–5.55 · xPts 9.02
- D
A
PSV
2–2
xG 2.08–2.49
NLD E
- L
H
Inter
0–2
xG 0.92–1.63
UEFA CL - W
H
PEC Zwolle
3–1
xG 2.01–0.56
NLD E
- D
A
FC Volendam
1–1
xG 1.17–0.58
NLD E
- W
H
Heracles Almelo
2–0
xG 3.03–0.3
NLD E
WDWDWLD 3W 3D 1L · 12 pts (1.71 ppg) · GF 12 GA 8 · xG 13.08–7.49 · xPts 13.04
- D
A
PSV
2–2
xG 2.08–2.49
NLD E
- L
H
Inter
0–2
xG 0.92–1.63
UEFA CL
- W
H
PEC Zwolle
3–1
xG 2.01–0.56
NLD E
- D
A
FC Volendam
1–1
xG 1.17–0.58
NLD E
- W
H
Heracles Almelo
2–0
xG 3.03–0.3
NLD E
- D
A
Go Ahead Eagles
2–2
xG 2.1–0.75
NLD E
- W
H
Telstar
2–0
xG 1.77–1.19
NLD E
NAC Breda
WLLDW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 8 · xG 7.72–10.29 · xPts 6.34
- W
H
Heracles Almelo
2–1
xG 2.13–1.09
NLD E
- D
A
FC Twente
2–2
xG 0.95–2.1
NLD E
- L
H
AZ Alkmaar
0–1
xG 2.41–2.32
NLD E
- L
A
NEC Nijmegen
0–3
xG 0.48–4.04
NLD E
- W
H
Fortuna Sittard
2–1
xG 1.76–0.74
NLD E
LWLLDW 2W 1D 3L · 7 pts (1.17 ppg) · GF 6 GA 10 · xG 8.1–12.38 · xPts 6.67
- W
H
Heracles Almelo
2–1
xG 2.13–1.09
NLD E
- D
A
FC Twente
2–2
xG 0.95–2.1
NLD E
- L
H
AZ Alkmaar
0–1
xG 2.41–2.32
NLD E
- L
A
NEC Nijmegen
0–3
xG 0.48–4.04
NLD E
- W
H
Fortuna Sittard
2–1
xG 1.76–0.74
NLD E
- L
A
Feyenoord
0–2
xG 0.38–2.09
NLD E
All meetings · 28 matches since 2005
Goals 77–17 · 3.36 per match · BTTS 39% · over 2.5 68%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 32–7 · 3.9 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 80%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 13–4 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%
Recent meetings
- W NAC Breda 0–2 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
- W Ajax 2–1 NAC Breda NLD E · Regular Season
- W Ajax 3–1 NAC Breda NLD E · Regular Season
- L NAC Breda 2–1 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
- W Ajax 5–0 NAC Breda NLD E · Regular Season
- W NAC Breda 0–3 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
- W Ajax 3–1 NAC Breda NLD E · Regular Season
- W NAC Breda 0–8 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
- D Ajax 0–0 NAC Breda NLD E · Regular Season
- W NAC Breda 2–5 Ajax neutral NLD E · Regular Season
| Metric | Ajax all · 36 | Ajax at home · 19 | NAC Breda all · 34 | NAC Breda away · 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 36 | 19 | 34 | 17 |
| Points per game | 1.67 | 1.84 | 0.85 | 0.53 |
| W / D / L | 15 / 15 / 6 | 10 / 5 / 4 | 6 / 11 / 17 | 1 / 6 / 10 |
| Goals for / match | 1.81 | 1.84 | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 0.95 | 1.71 | 2.06 |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 37% | 18% | 12% |
| Failed to score | 8% | 5% | 41% | 47% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 58% | 47% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 47% | 50% | 59% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.72 | 2.02 | 1.31 | 1.14 |
| xG against / match | 1.48 | 1.37 | 1.48 | 1.78 |
| xG difference | 0.24 | 0.65 | -0.17 | -0.64 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.08 | -0.17 | -0.28 | -0.26 |
| xPts / match | 1.52 | 1.75 | 1.31 | 1.05 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.15 | 0.10 | -0.45 | -0.52 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 58% | 74% | 26% | 18% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.24 | 2.43 | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.85 | 0.20 | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| Came back from behind | 60% | 20% | 32% | 33% |
| Leads held | 62% | 71% | 43% | 17% |
| Minutes leading | 37% | 46% | 12% | 10% |
| Minutes level | 46% | 44% | 51% | 44% |
| Minutes trailing | 16% | 10% | 37% | 46% |
| First goal (min) | 34 | 31 | 48 | 50 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 41 | 48 | 35 | 32 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 42% | 38% | 60% | 67% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 58% | 59% | 50% | 57% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.33 | 0.47 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Late goals against | 0.28 | 0.26 | 0.47 | 0.71 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 56% | 57% | 49% | 47% |
| Shots | 14.9 | 16.3 | 14.1 | 13.4 |
| On target | 5.9 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| Shot conversion | 12% | 11% | 7% | 7% |
| Shots inside box | 68% | 69% | 61% | 59% |
| Big chances created | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Corners | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.5 |
| xG from set plays | 20% | 22% | 39% | 34% |
| Goals from headers | 16% | 11% | 23% | 27% |
| Pressure index | 16.0 | 18.1 | 11.9 | 9.2 |
| Dominant minutes | 56.7 | 63.9 | 44.3 | 37.8 |
| Pass accuracy | 85% | 86% | 77% | 76% |
| Fouls | 10.3 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 11.5 |
| Cards | 1.81 | 1.42 | 1.88 | 2.00 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Ajax
0–15'106
16–30'125
31–45'156
46–60'128
61–75'47
76–90'119
NAC Breda
0–15'18
16–30'410
31–45'911
46–60'68
61–75'55
76–90'1016
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Ajax · 12 matches
Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.65) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) +0.90
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.6512
Early press (0-15, level)+0.9012
Late push (76+, level)+0.053
Game state
When ahead+0.6811
When level+0.8012
When behind-0.184
10 min after conceding-0.219
10 min after scoring+0.8112
Situations
At home+0.686
Away+0.626
3 days rest or fewer+0.544
4+ days rest+0.708
Opposition
v bottom-tier opponents+0.735
As favourite+0.7311
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.1912
Conceded when ahead-0.2911
Conceded late (76+)-0.399
Congested vs rested -0.17 · Ahead vs level -0.12 · Behind vs level -0.98
NAC Breda
No pressure profile yet.
Ajax
Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 14 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 25 69% | 1.6 | 1.88 | 1.16 | 1.81 | 1.52 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 8 22% | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.54 | 1.38 |
| 5-4-1 | 2 6% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.26 | 1.64 |
| 4-3-2-1 | 1 3% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.84 | 1.02 |
NAC Breda
Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 18 53% | 0.78 | 1.0 | 1.61 | 1.29 | 1.47 |
| 5-3-2 | 5 15% | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.51 | 1.46 |
| 4-4-2 | 4 12% | 1.25 | 1.75 | 2.0 | 1.28 | 1.51 |
| 3-4-1-2 | 2 6% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.28 | 1.35 |
| 4-1-3-2 | 2 6% | 1.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Metric | Ajax all · 10 | Ajax at home · 10 | NAC Breda all · 10 | NAC Breda away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 2.30 | 1.80 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| W / D / L | 7 / 2 / 1 | 5 / 3 / 2 | 1 / 4 / 5 | 1 / 4 / 5 |
| Goals for / match | 3.30 | 2.60 | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 80% | 50% | 50% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 2.99 | 3.14 | 1.24 | 1.21 |
| xG against / match | 1.18 | 1.59 | 1.51 | 1.66 |
| xG difference | 1.81 | 1.55 | -0.27 | -0.45 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.31 | -0.54 | -0.24 | -0.41 |
| xPts / match | 2.17 | 1.97 | 1.23 | 1.12 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.13 | -0.18 | -0.53 | -0.42 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 80% | 60% | 10% | 10% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.50 | 2.33 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| PPG when conceding first | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| Came back from behind | 67% | 60% | 38% | 38% |
| Leads held | 78% | 71% | 33% | 33% |
| Minutes leading | 51% | 41% | 7% | 6% |
| Minutes level | 40% | 48% | 51% | 51% |
| Minutes trailing | 9% | 10% | 42% | 42% |
| First goal (min) | 30 | 34 | 55 | 69 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 42 | 51 | 33 | 34 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 58% | 48% | 60% | 75% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 53% | 53% | 46% | 50% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| Late goals against | 0.60 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 63% | 61% | 49% | 46% |
| Shots | 24.0 | 22.4 | 15.4 | 14.1 |
| On target | 8.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 4.6 |
| Shot conversion | 14% | 12% | 6% | 6% |
| Shots inside box | 67% | 69% | 55% | 59% |
| Big chances created | 4.5 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Corners | 8.4 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.1 |
| xG from set plays | 18% | 28% | 37% | 30% |
| Goals from headers | 19% | 12% | 40% | 38% |
| Pressure index | 23.7 | 22.1 | 13.7 | 11.1 |
| Dominant minutes | 66.4 | 69.2 | 47.6 | 40.4 |
| Pass accuracy | 90% | 88% | 77% | 76% |
| Fouls | 9.3 | 9.0 | 10.1 | 10.2 |
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.30 | 1.40 | 1.70 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Ajax
0–15'31
16–30'32
31–45'84
46–60'71
61–75'51
76–90'76
NAC Breda
0–15'03
16–30'14
31–45'35
46–60'02
61–75'41
76–90'27
Ajax
Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 14 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 6 60% | 2.17 | 3.67 | 2.0 | 2.85 | 1.47 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 2 20% | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.04 | 0.97 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 6.61 | 0.2 |
| 4-4-1-1 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.14 | 0.88 |
NAC Breda
Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 4 40% | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.25 | 1.21 | 1.03 |
| 4-4-2 | 2 20% | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.28 | 2.26 |
| 4-1-3-2 | 2 20% | 1.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| 3-5-2 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.44 | 1.45 |
| 4-3-1-2 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.78 |
| Metric | Ajax all · 50 | Ajax at home · 25 | NAC Breda all · 29 | NAC Breda away · 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 50 | 25 | 29 | 14 |
| Points per game | 1.68 | 1.56 | 0.86 | 0.57 |
| W / D / L | 23 / 15 / 12 | 11 / 6 / 8 | 5 / 10 / 14 | 1 / 5 / 8 |
| Goals for / match | 2.08 | 1.96 | 1.07 | 0.93 |
| Goals against / match | 1.48 | 1.40 | 1.69 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 20% | 21% | 14% |
| Failed to score | 12% | 12% | 38% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 68% | 48% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 64% | 48% | 57% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.92 | 2.29 | 1.33 | 1.26 |
| xG against / match | 1.51 | 1.43 | 1.35 | 1.57 |
| xG difference | 0.42 | 0.86 | -0.02 | -0.32 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.16 | -0.33 | -0.26 | -0.33 |
| xPts / match | 1.57 | 1.75 | 1.37 | 1.20 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.11 | -0.19 | -0.51 | -0.62 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 52% | 60% | 24% | 14% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.31 | 2.33 | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| PPG when conceding first | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| Came back from behind | 50% | 27% | 33% | 33% |
| Leads held | 70% | 69% | 42% | 20% |
| Minutes leading | 35% | 40% | 9% | 7% |
| Minutes level | 44% | 43% | 54% | 50% |
| Minutes trailing | 21% | 17% | 37% | 42% |
| First goal (min) | 35 | 31 | 52 | 56 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 39 | 45 | 32 | 34 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 52% | 42% | 61% | 69% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 56% | 59% | 45% | 54% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.42 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| Late goals against | 0.38 | 0.52 | 0.41 | 0.71 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 57% | 58% | 50% | 47% |
| Shots | 16.2 | 17.6 | 14.9 | 14.5 |
| On target | 6.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| Shot conversion | 13% | 11% | 7% | 6% |
| Shots inside box | 66% | 69% | 61% | 60% |
| Big chances created | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Corners | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.1 |
| xG from set plays | 20% | 21% | 36% | 33% |
| Goals from headers | 14% | 10% | 26% | 31% |
| Pressure index | 16.4 | 18.7 | 13.5 | 10.7 |
| Dominant minutes | 54.7 | 60.4 | 48.3 | 42.1 |
| Pass accuracy | 86% | 87% | 78% | 77% |
| Fouls | 9.9 | 10.0 | 10.4 | 10.5 |
| Cards | 1.82 | 1.48 | 1.90 | 2.00 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Ajax
0–15'1311
16–30'139
31–45'2412
46–60'2215
61–75'118
76–90'2018
NAC Breda
0–15'06
16–30'310
31–45'911
46–60'56
61–75'54
76–90'912
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Ajax · 50 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.24) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.62
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.2450
Early press (0-15, level)+0.2750
Late push (76+, level)-0.1719
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.3115
Game state
When ahead+0.4232
When level+0.1650
When behind+0.1324
10 min after conceding-0.1336
10 min after scoring+0.6243
Situations
Against ten men+0.195
At home+0.2425
Away+0.2425
3 days rest or fewer+0.288
4+ days rest+0.2342
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.1212
v mid-tier opponents+0.1712
v bottom-tier opponents+0.4213
As favourite+0.4032
Evenly matched+0.0510
As underdog-0.228
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.0650
Conceded when ahead-0.1632
Conceded late (76+)-0.0542
Congested vs rested +0.04 · Ahead vs level +0.26 · Behind vs level -0.03
NAC Breda · 29 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.59
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.1729
Early press (0-15, level)+0.1229
Late push (76+, level)+0.0617
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.2816
Game state
When ahead-0.0811
When level+0.1529
When behind+0.2821
10 min after conceding-0.2223
10 min after scoring+0.5917
Situations
With ten men+0.275
At home+0.2115
Away+0.1314
4+ days rest+0.1729
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.117
v mid-tier opponents+0.179
v bottom-tier opponents+0.169
As favourite+0.425
Evenly matched+0.1613
As underdog+0.0811
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.0229
Conceded when ahead+0.2311
Conceded late (76+)-0.1128
Ahead vs level -0.23 · Behind vs level +0.14
Ajax
Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 14 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 33 66% | 1.76 | 2.3 | 1.42 | 2.01 | 1.49 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 11 22% | 1.0 | 1.27 | 2.0 | 1.46 | 1.79 |
| 5-4-1 | 2 4% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.26 | 1.64 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 2 4% | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3.68 | 0.56 |
| 4-3-2-1 | 1 2% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.84 | 1.02 |
NAC Breda
Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 13 45% | 0.77 | 1.08 | 1.54 | 1.32 | 1.17 |
| 5-3-2 | 5 17% | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.51 | 1.46 |
| 4-4-2 | 4 14% | 1.25 | 1.75 | 2.0 | 1.28 | 1.51 |
| 3-4-1-2 | 2 7% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.28 | 1.35 |
| 4-1-3-2 | 2 7% | 1.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.
Latest prices
bet365 · pre-match line -0.2h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
1.25Home 75% P 75%6.25Draw 15% P 16%9.5Away 10% P 9%
Double Chance
1.07Ajax or Draw 45% P 45%1.12Ajax or NAC 43% P 43%3.75Draw or NAC 13% P 12%
Draw No Bet
1.081 88%8.02 12%
Both Teams To Score
1.9Yes 50% P 49%1.9No 50% P 51%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.4Over 67% P 65%2.87Under 33% P 35%
Total Corners
10.0Under 6 9%3.16 - 8 28%2.629 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 75–77.5% · away 7.5–10% · 515 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 75% | 76% | 77% | +0.9 |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 15% | -0.5 |
| Away | 9% | 9% | 8% | -0.4 |
In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 49% · over 2.5 66%
Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 49% | 49% | 49% | +0.0 |
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 62.5–65% · 1,570 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 64% | 63% | -0.4 |
Marc Nagtegaal
- Career
- 90 matches · 8 seasons
- Cards / match
- 2.73 (2.63 yellow · 0.04 red)
- Fouls / match
- 19.5 · 7.2 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.24
- Cards to home side
- 44%
Style in Eredivisie (5-year window · 69 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 2.71 | 3.32 | -1.38 | 9 |
| Fouls / match | 19.1 | 20.3 | -0.80 | |
| Fouls per card | 7.5 | 6.2 | +1.59 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.29 | 0.24 | +0.74 | 77 |
| Time added | 6.2 | 6.4 | -0.46 | 41 |
- First card
- 42' on average
- Card timing
- 18% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 43% (league 44%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.38
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-24 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 29' | 6 |
| 2025-09-20 | 5 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 28' | 5 |
| 2025-09-14 | 4 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 42' | 8 |
| 2025-08-24 · Ajax | 2 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 22' | 8 |
| 2025-08-09 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 69' | 7 |
| 2025-07-24 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 14' | 7 |
| 2025-07-10 | – | – | 14 | – | – | 5 |
| 2025-05-22 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 18' | 3 |
| 2025-05-14 | – | – | 13 | – | – | 9 |
| 2025-05-11 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 29' | 9 |