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Eredivisie · Matchweek 10
FC TwenteFC Twente
2–3
FT
AjaxAjax

Momentum

– FC TwenteAjax –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
10

Venue

Stadium
De Grolsch Veste, Enschede
Capacity
30,205
Surface
grass
Attendance
30,000

Teams

Coaches
John van den Brom · John Heitinga
Position
8 · 5
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Serdar Gözübüyük

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
8.9° (feels 4.6°)
Wind
11.1
Humidity
79%

Where to watch · 105

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 PSV 342734 1014556 84 WWDWW
2 Feyenoord 341987 704426 65 DWWDW
3 NEC Nijmegen 3416117 775324 59 DDDLW
4 FC Twente 3415136 594019 58 WDDWL
5 Ajax 3414146 624121 56 WWDLD
6 FC Utrecht 3415811 554213 53 WLWWW
7 AZ Alkmaar 34141010 58517 52 WDDDD
8 SC Heerenveen 3414911 57534 51 LWWLD
9 FC Groningen 3414614 49454 48 DLLWW
10 Sparta Rotterdam 3412715 4062-22 43 LLDLL
11 Fortuna Sittard 3411617 4963-14 39 DLLWL
12 Go Ahead Eagles 3481412 54531 38 DDDLL
13 Excelsior 3410816 4356-13 38 DWWDW
14 Telstar 3491015 4955-6 37 LWDWW
15 PEC Zwolle 3491015 4471-27 37 DLWLL
16 FC Volendam 348818 3555-20 32 LWLDL
17 NAC Breda 3461117 3558-23 29 DLLWD
18 Heracles Almelo 345425 3585-50 19 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers Play-off
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

FC Twente

DWWWD 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 15 GA 9 · xG 11.68–3.77 · xPts 11.54

  • D A NEC Nijmegen 3–3 xG 2.05–0.93 NLD E
  • W H Heracles Almelo 2–1 xG 1.66–0.69 NLD E
  • W H Fortuna Sittard 3–2 xG 3.12–0.46 NLD E
  • W A Sparta Rotterdam 5–1 xG 2.74–0.76 NLD E
  • D H NAC Breda 2–2 xG 2.1–0.95 NLD E

Ajax

WLDLL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 15 · xG 6.32–11.63 · xPts 4.35

  • L A Chelsea 1–5 xG 1.05–3.94 UEFA CL
  • L H AZ Alkmaar 0–2 xG 1.23–2.55 NLD E
  • D A Sparta Rotterdam 3–3 xG 1.39–2.31 NLD E
  • L A Olympique Marseille 0–4 xG 0.87–1.08 UEFA CL
  • W H NAC Breda 2–1 xG 1.78–1.76 NLD E

All meetings · 41 matches since 2005

FC Twente 812 draws21 Ajax

Goals 46–81 · 3.1 per match · BTTS 63% · over 2.5 63%

Last 10 · 10 matches

FC Twente 33 draws4 Ajax

Goals 14–18 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

FC Twente 11 draws3 Ajax

Goals 7–10 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W Ajax 1–2 FC Twente NLD E · Regular Season
  • L FC Twente 2–3 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
  • L Ajax 2–0 FC Twente NLD E · Regular Season
  • D FC Twente 2–2 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
  • L Ajax 2–1 FC Twente NLD E · Regular Season
  • W FC Twente 3–1 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
  • W FC Twente 3–1 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
  • D Ajax 0–0 FC Twente NLD E · Regular Season
  • L Ajax 5–0 FC Twente neutral NLD E · Regular Season
  • D FC Twente 1–1 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
MetricFC Twente all · 34FC Twente at home · 17Ajax all · 36Ajax away · 17
Results
Matches34173617
Points per game1.711.881.671.47
W / D / L15 / 13 / 69 / 5 / 315 / 15 / 65 / 10 / 2
Goals for / match1.741.711.811.76
Goals against / match1.180.941.171.41
Clean sheets24%41%31%24%
Failed to score18%24%8%12%
Both teams scored65%47%67%76%
Over 2.550%47%56%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.082.151.721.39
xG against / match1.180.961.481.61
xG difference0.901.190.24-0.21
Finishing vs xG-0.34-0.450.080.37
xPts / match1.861.981.521.27
Points vs xPts-0.16-0.100.150.20
Game state
Scored first56%53%58%41%
PPG when scoring first2.212.442.241.86
PPG when conceding first1.081.330.851.25
Came back from behind60%57%60%80%
Leads held62%75%62%50%
Minutes leading33%32%37%27%
Minutes level48%50%46%49%
Minutes trailing19%18%16%24%
First goal (min)37393438
First goal conceded (min)43424134
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half63%62%42%47%
Goals conceded in 2nd half62%62%58%58%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.350.330.18
Late goals against0.260.120.280.29
Style
Possession54%57%56%56%
Shots17.819.014.913.4
On target6.57.15.95.2
Shot conversion10%9%12%13%
Shots inside box66%66%68%66%
Big chances created3.13.12.82.4
Corners5.45.74.94.4
xG from set plays25%22%20%16%
Goals from headers14%14%16%21%
Pressure index18.222.516.013.5
Dominant minutes58.068.656.748.6
Pass accuracy80%81%85%84%
Fouls10.79.610.39.8
Cards1.471.181.812.24

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

FC Twente

0–15'56
16–30'103
31–45'76
46–60'179
61–75'87
76–90'129

Ajax

0–15'106
16–30'125
31–45'156
46–60'128
61–75'47
76–90'119

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FC Twente · 12 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.46) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.79

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.4612
Early press (0-15, level)+0.3612
Late push (76+, level)+0.545
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.586

Game state

When ahead+0.687
When level+0.3812
When behind+0.458
10 min after conceding+0.018
10 min after scoring+0.7910

Situations

At home+0.616
Away+0.326
3 days rest or fewer+0.735
4+ days rest+0.287

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.735
As favourite+0.5010
Evenly matched+0.312

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.3212
Conceded when ahead-0.217
Conceded late (76+)-0.5310

Congested vs rested +0.45 · Ahead vs level +0.31 · Behind vs level +0.08

Ajax · 12 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.65) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) +0.90

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.6512
Early press (0-15, level)+0.9012
Late push (76+, level)+0.053

Game state

When ahead+0.6811
When level+0.8012
When behind-0.184
10 min after conceding-0.219
10 min after scoring+0.8112

Situations

At home+0.686
Away+0.626
3 days rest or fewer+0.544
4+ days rest+0.708

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.735
As favourite+0.7311

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.1912
Conceded when ahead-0.2911
Conceded late (76+)-0.399

Congested vs rested -0.17 · Ahead vs level -0.12 · Behind vs level -0.98

FC Twente

Current: unbeaten 5 · wins 2 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-126 76%1.51.621.272.161.17
4-3-38 24%2.382.130.881.831.2

Ajax

Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 14 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-325 69%1.61.881.161.811.52
4-2-3-18 22%1.381.381.381.541.38
5-4-12 6%3.02.00.01.261.64
4-3-2-11 3%3.03.02.01.841.02

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.35Home 40% P 39%3.5Draw 27% P 27%2.9Away 33% P 34%

Double Chance

1.36FC Twente or Draw 34% P 33%1.28FC Twente or Ajax 36% P 36%1.57Draw or Ajax 30% P 30%

Draw No Bet

1.611 58%2.22 42%

Both Teams To Score

1.53Yes 61% P 62%2.37No 39% P 38%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.65Over 57% P 57%2.2Under 43% P 43%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 34%4.7512 - 14 19%11.0Over 14 8%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 32.5–35% · 571 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home39%39%39%+0.5
Draw27%28%28%-0.0
Away34%34%33%-0.4

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 46%

Both teams to score · yes 60–62.5% · 1,319 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes62%61%62%+0.7

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,507 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.557%56%56%-0.2

Serdar Gözübüyük

Career
414 matches · 17 seasons
Cards / match
3.71 (3.53 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
20.9 · 5.0 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.25
Cards to home side
43%

Style in Eredivisie (5-year window · 108 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.943.32+1.2296
Fouls / match22.320.3+0.88
Fouls per card5.86.2-0.87 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.230.24-0.0150
Time added6.06.4-0.829
First card
35' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
Cards to home side
43% (league 44%)
VAR events / match
1.13

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-21 60 320 11'5
2025-10-05 50 201 14'7
2025-10-01 40 300 50'6
2025-09-27 60 230 16'6
2025-09-21 · Ajax 70 301 18'9
2025-09-13 20 210 20'11
2025-08-31 31 140 24'6
2025-08-21 61 230 12'10
2025-08-15 60 230 11'5
2025-08-10 40 231 35'4