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Eredivisie · Matchweek 11

Momentum

TelstarExcelsior
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
11

Venue

Stadium
BUKO Stadion, Velsen
Capacity
3,200
Surface
artificial turf
Attendance
5,270

Teams

Coaches
Anthony Correia · Ruben den Uil
Position
17 · 16
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-3-3

Referee

Martin van den Kerkhof

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
14.4° (feels 14.0°)
Wind
13.1
Humidity
82%

Where to watch · 253

  • Algeria STARZPLAY
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  • São Tomé and Príncipe ESPN Africa
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  • Turkmenistan Setanta Sports 1
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  • Ukraine Setanta Sports Ukraine
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  • Uruguay Disney+ · ESPN · ESPN 2 · ESPN 3
  • Uzbekistan Setanta Sports 1
  • Venezuela Disney+ · ESPN · ESPN 2 · ESPN 3
  • Yemen STARZPLAY
  • Zambia ESPN Africa
  • Zimbabwe DStv Now · ESPN Africa

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 PSV 342734 1014556 84 WWDWW
2 Feyenoord 341987 704426 65 DWWDW
3 NEC Nijmegen 3416117 775324 59 DDDLW
4 FC Twente 3415136 594019 58 WDDWL
5 Ajax 3414146 624121 56 WWDLD
6 FC Utrecht 3415811 554213 53 WLWWW
7 AZ Alkmaar 34141010 58517 52 WDDDD
8 SC Heerenveen 3414911 57534 51 LWWLD
9 FC Groningen 3414614 49454 48 DLLWW
10 Sparta Rotterdam 3412715 4062-22 43 LLDLL
11 Fortuna Sittard 3411617 4963-14 39 DLLWL
12 Go Ahead Eagles 3481412 54531 38 DDDLL
13 Excelsior 3410816 4356-13 38 DWWDW
14 Telstar 3491015 4955-6 37 LWDWW
15 PEC Zwolle 3491015 4471-27 37 DLWLL
16 FC Volendam 348818 3555-20 32 LWLDL
17 NAC Breda 3461117 3558-23 29 DLLWD
18 Heracles Almelo 345425 3585-50 19 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers Play-off
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Telstar

LWLLL 1W 0D 4L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 7 GA 10 · xG 7.79–11.51 · xPts 5.27

  • L A Sparta Rotterdam 0–1 xG 0.78–1.3 NLD E
  • L H SC Heerenveen 2–3 xG 2.33–2.22 NLD E
  • L A AZ Alkmaar 1–2 xG 1.11–4.53 NLD E
  • W H Go Ahead Eagles 4–2 xG 2.94–1.74 NLD E
  • L A FC Groningen 0–2 xG 0.63–1.72 NLD E

Excelsior

WLLWL 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 5 GA 7 · xG 7.19–8.36 · xPts 6.17

  • L A Go Ahead Eagles 0–2 xG 0.56–1.35 NLD E
  • W H Fortuna Sittard 1–0 xG 1.5–1.2 NLD E
  • L A SC Heerenveen 1–2 xG 1.4–2.4 NLD E
  • L H PSV 1–2 xG 1.73–2.18 NLD E
  • W A FC Volendam 2–1 xG 2.0–1.24 NLD E

All meetings · 2 matches since 2025

Telstar 02 draws0 Excelsior

Goals 4–4 · 4.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Telstar 02 draws0 Excelsior

Goals 4–4 · 4.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Telstar 02 draws0 Excelsior

Goals 4–4 · 4.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • D Excelsior 2–2 Telstar NLD E · Regular Season
  • D Telstar 2–2 Excelsior NLD E · Regular Season
MetricTelstar all · 34Telstar at home · 17Excelsior all · 34Excelsior away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.091.181.121.18
W / D / L9 / 10 / 155 / 5 / 710 / 8 / 165 / 5 / 7
Goals for / match1.441.821.261.35
Goals against / match1.621.651.652.00
Clean sheets15%12%18%12%
Failed to score24%18%21%18%
Both teams scored65%71%65%76%
Over 2.559%71%62%71%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.431.611.431.47
xG against / match1.901.631.721.86
xG difference-0.47-0.01-0.29-0.39
Finishing vs xG0.010.21-0.17-0.12
xPts / match1.151.391.201.13
Points vs xPts-0.06-0.22-0.090.05
Game state
Scored first47%53%44%35%
PPG when scoring first1.811.891.802.00
PPG when conceding first0.410.380.560.70
Came back from behind17%12%33%42%
Leads held50%50%62%71%
Minutes leading24%30%24%22%
Minutes level44%43%46%42%
Minutes trailing32%27%30%35%
First goal (min)45423940
First goal conceded (min)40414137
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%58%51%52%
Goals conceded in 2nd half56%57%61%59%
Late goals for (76'+)0.380.590.350.41
Late goals against0.500.530.260.24
Style
Possession45%47%48%46%
Shots12.813.512.412.1
On target4.95.44.24.2
Shot conversion11%14%10%11%
Shots inside box66%67%66%66%
Big chances created3.13.52.62.0
Corners4.75.44.14.0
xG from set plays31%31%29%28%
Goals from headers20%23%22%22%
Pressure index8.09.07.96.5
Dominant minutes37.041.838.735.1
Pass accuracy76%77%77%77%
Fouls11.310.412.313.2
Cards1.351.291.351.18

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Telstar

0–15'57
16–30'48
31–45'109
46–60'64
61–75'1110
76–90'1317

Excelsior

0–15'86
16–30'58
31–45'88
46–60'416
61–75'69
76–90'129

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Telstar · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.07) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.47

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.076
Early press (0-15, level)-0.476
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.052

Game state

When level-0.026
When behind+0.084
10 min after conceding+0.015
10 min after scoring+0.532

Situations

At home+0.263
Away-0.303
4+ days rest+0.055

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.402
v bottom-tier opponents+0.293
As underdog-0.284

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.296
Conceded late (76+)+0.354

Congested vs rested -0.60 · Ahead vs level -0.39 · Behind vs level +0.11

Excelsior · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.046
Early press (0-15, level)+0.056
Late push (76+, level)+0.203
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.692

Game state

When ahead+0.114
When level+0.026
When behind-0.243
10 min after conceding-0.134
10 min after scoring+0.366

Situations

At home-0.153
Away+0.103
4+ days rest-0.025

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.072
v bottom-tier opponents+0.143
Evenly matched+0.094
As underdog-0.262

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.066
Conceded when ahead+0.194
Conceded late (76+)+0.285

Congested vs rested -0.11 · Ahead vs level +0.09 · Behind vs level -0.26

Telstar

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 5 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-128 82%0.961.431.711.421.94
3-4-35 15%1.41.21.21.411.68
3-5-21 3%3.03.01.01.661.7

Excelsior

Current: winless 2 · scoring 11 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-117 50%1.351.061.651.251.95
4-3-39 26%1.221.891.671.971.47
4-1-4-13 9%0.671.331.671.11.53
5-4-12 6%0.51.52.01.482.13
3-4-2-12 6%0.00.01.51.260.87

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.15Home 44% P 44%3.6Draw 26% P 27%3.1Away 30% P 29%

Double Chance

1.36Telstar or Draw 35% P 36%1.28Telstar or Excelsior 37% P 37%1.7Draw or Excelsior 28% P 28%

Draw No Bet

1.531 61%2.372 39%

Both Teams To Score

1.61Yes 58% P 61%2.2No 42% P 39%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.7Over 55% P 57%2.1Under 45% P 43%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 23%8.0Over 14 11%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 42.5–45% · away 27.5–30% · 766 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home44%44%43%-0.3
Draw27%28%30%+2.4
Away29%29%26%-2.1

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 52%

Both teams to score · yes 60–62.5% · 1,319 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes61%61%62%+0.7

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,507 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.557%56%56%-0.2

Martin van den Kerkhof

Career
156 matches · 14 seasons
Cards / match
3.06 (2.87 yellow · 0.16 red)
Fouls / match
18.3 · 5.9 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.26
Cards to home side
43%

Style in Eredivisie (5-year window · 74 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match2.783.32-1.2314
Fouls / match18.720.3-1.03
Fouls per card7.06.2+0.88 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.260.24+0.3264
Time added6.16.4-0.6427
First card
46' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
40% (league 44%)
VAR events / match
1.14

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-24 10 200 79'8
2025-10-18 20 250 57'4
2025-09-19 10 130 25'3
2025-08-17 50 230 30'5
2025-05-18 10 190 78'5
2025-04-24 30 210 68'7
2025-04-04 10 190 88'5
2025-03-15 30 201 74'8
2025-02-28 50 230 43'9
2025-02-08 11 120 53'11