Excelsior v NAC Breda

Eredivisie · Matchweek 14

ExcelsiorExcelsior

1–0

NAC BredaNAC Breda

Momentum

– ExcelsiorNAC Breda –

now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

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Stats

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Season context

Excelsior	at home	Stat	league	away	NAC Breda
47.6 #11	–	Ball possession	50.0	–	49.0 #10
12.4 #14	–	Shots total	14.1	–	14.1 #10
4.2 #14	–	Shots on target	5.2	–	4.2 #15
4.1 #16	–	Corners	5.2	–	5.8 #5
12.3 #2	–	Fouls	10.9	–	10.8 #10
1.0 #17	–	Offsides	1.4	–	1.4 #9
14.1 #17	–	Tackles	16.2	–	16.2 #12
98.8 #8	–	Attacks	97.3	–	97.7 #10
41.1 #13	–	Dangerous attacks	46.1	–	45.6 #8
404.5 #10	–	Passes	419.2	–	395.1 #13
1.3 #18	–	Yellowcards	1.6	–	1.6 #9
0.1 #4	–	Redcards	0.1	–	0.2 #1
0.8 #16	–	Assists	1.2	–	0.7 #18
– #7	–	Btts	62.8	–	– #17
– #10	–	Cleansheet	20.2	–	– #10
– #11	–	Draw	26.2	–	– #4
1.4 #11	–	Expected goals	1.6	–	1.3 #14
-0.1 #12	–	Expected goals difference	-0.0	–	-0.3 #16
– #8	–	Failed to score	20.3	–	– #2
1.3 #14	1.2	Goals	1.6	0.9	1.0 #16
1.6 #6	1.3	Goals conceded	1.6	2.1	1.7 #5
0.3 #5	–	Injury time goals	0.3	–	0.3 #10
9.1 #6	–	Interceptions	8.8	–	8.1 #14
– #5	–	Lost	37.0	–	– #3
0.1 #9	–	Penalties scored	0.1	–	0.1 #3
6.8 #14	–	Rating	6.8	–	6.8 #14
3.4 #13	–	Shots blocked	3.8	–	3.7 #10
8.2 #13	–	Shots insidebox	9.2	–	8.6 #10
4.9 #12	–	Shots off target	5.1	–	6.2 #1
4.2 #15	–	Shots outsidebox	4.9	–	5.5 #4
– #12	–	Win	36.8	–	– #17

Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 18.

League this season · 2025/2026

Played: 309 of 309
Goals / match: 3.17 (home 1.8 · away 1.37)
Home / draw / away: 45% · 26% · 29%
BTTS · over 2.5: 63% · 61%
Cards / match: 3.47 (reds 0.1)

Competition

Stage: Regular Season
Round: 14

Venue

Stadium: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam
Capacity: 4,500
Surface: artificial turf
Attendance: 4,600

Teams

Coaches: Ruben den Uil · Carl Hoefkens
Position: 15 · 16
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · 5-3-2

Referee

Serdar Gözübüyük

Weather

Conditions: overcast clouds
Temperature: 10.2° (feels 9.7°)
Wind: 5.1
Humidity: 91%

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2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	PSV	34	27	3	4	101	45	56	84	WWDWW
2	Feyenoord	34	19	8	7	70	44	26	65	DWWDW
3	NEC Nijmegen	34	16	11	7	77	53	24	59	DDDLW
4	FC Twente	34	15	13	6	59	40	19	58	WDDWL
5	Ajax	34	14	14	6	62	41	21	56	WWDLD
6	FC Utrecht	34	15	8	11	55	42	13	53	WLWWW
7	AZ Alkmaar	34	14	10	10	58	51	7	52	WDDDD
8	SC Heerenveen	34	14	9	11	57	53	4	51	LWWLD
9	FC Groningen	34	14	6	14	49	45	4	48	DLLWW
10	Sparta Rotterdam	34	12	7	15	40	62	-22	43	LLDLL
11	Fortuna Sittard	34	11	6	17	49	63	-14	39	DLLWL
12	Go Ahead Eagles	34	8	14	12	54	53	1	38	DDDLL
13	Excelsior	34	10	8	16	43	56	-13	38	DWWDW
14	Telstar	34	9	10	15	49	55	-6	37	LWDWW
15	PEC Zwolle	34	9	10	15	44	71	-27	37	DLWLL
16	FC Volendam	34	8	8	18	35	55	-20	32	LWLDL
17	NAC Breda	34	6	11	17	35	58	-23	29	DLLWD
18	Heracles Almelo	34	5	4	25	35	85	-50	19	LLLLL

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	PSV	17	13	2	2	58	26	32	41	WWDWW
2	Feyenoord	17	11	3	3	39	23	16	36	DWWDW
3	FC Utrecht	17	10	3	4	31	13	18	33	WLWWW
4	NEC Nijmegen	17	9	5	3	41	25	16	32	DDDLW
5	FC Twente	17	9	5	3	29	16	13	32	WDDWL
6	Ajax	17	9	4	4	32	17	15	31	WWDLD
7	AZ Alkmaar	17	8	7	2	39	26	13	31	WDDDD
8	SC Heerenveen	17	8	6	3	33	24	9	30	LWWLD
9	PEC Zwolle	17	8	4	5	21	21	0	28	DLWLL
10	Go Ahead Eagles	17	6	7	4	34	24	10	25	DDDLL
11	FC Groningen	17	7	4	6	27	18	9	25	DLLWW
12	Fortuna Sittard	17	7	4	6	28	29	-1	25	DLLWL
13	FC Volendam	17	6	5	6	24	23	1	23	LWLDL
14	Sparta Rotterdam	17	6	5	6	21	27	-6	23	LLDLL
15	Telstar	17	5	5	7	31	28	3	20	LWDWW
16	NAC Breda	17	5	5	7	20	23	-3	20	DLLWD
17	Excelsior	17	5	3	9	20	22	-2	18	DWWDW
18	Heracles Almelo	17	4	3	10	23	36	-13	15	LLLLL

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	PSV	17	14	1	2	43	19	24	43	WWDWW
2	Feyenoord	17	8	5	4	31	21	10	29	DWWDW
3	NEC Nijmegen	17	7	6	4	36	28	8	27	DDDLW
4	FC Twente	17	6	8	3	30	24	6	26	WDDWL
5	Ajax	17	5	10	2	30	24	6	25	WWDLD
6	FC Groningen	17	7	2	8	22	27	-5	23	DLLWW
7	SC Heerenveen	17	6	3	8	24	29	-5	21	LWWLD
8	AZ Alkmaar	17	6	3	8	19	25	-6	21	WDDDD
9	FC Utrecht	17	5	5	7	24	29	-5	20	WLWWW
10	Excelsior	17	5	5	7	23	34	-11	20	DWWDW
11	Sparta Rotterdam	17	6	2	9	19	35	-16	20	LLDLL
12	Telstar	17	4	5	8	18	27	-9	17	LWDWW
13	Fortuna Sittard	17	4	2	11	21	34	-13	14	DLLWL
14	Go Ahead Eagles	17	2	7	8	20	29	-9	13	DDDLL
15	NAC Breda	17	1	6	10	15	35	-20	9	DLLWD
16	FC Volendam	17	2	3	12	11	32	-21	9	LWLDL
17	PEC Zwolle	17	1	6	10	23	50	-27	9	DLWLL
18	Heracles Almelo	17	1	1	15	12	49	-37	4	LLLLL

UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
UEFA Europa League Qualifiers
UEFA Conference League Qualifiers Play-off
Relegation Play-off
Relegation

Excelsior

WLDLW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 7 · xG 8.23–8.45 · xPts 6.49

W A Ajax 2–1 xG 0.56–2.13 NLD E
L H Heracles Almelo 1–2 xG 1.8–1.28 NLD E
D A Telstar 2–2 xG 3.81–2.49 NLD E
L A Go Ahead Eagles 0–2 xG 0.56–1.35 NLD E
W H Fortuna Sittard 1–0 xG 1.5–1.2 NLD E

NAC Breda

DDWLL 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 7 GA 8 · xG 6.74–4.97 · xPts 7.83

L H PSV 0–1 xG 1.28–0.72 NLD E
L A FC Volendam 1–2 xG 0.78–1.64 NLD E
W H Go Ahead Eagles 1–0 xG 0.54–0.41 NLD E
D A SC Heerenveen 3–3 xG 1.3–0.97 NLD E
D H PEC Zwolle 2–2 xG 2.85–1.23 NLD E

All meetings · 16 matches since 2006

Excelsior 53 draws8 NAC Breda

Goals 15–21 · 2.25 per match · BTTS 38% · over 2.5 44%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Excelsior 43 draws3 NAC Breda

Goals 11–8 · 1.9 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 30%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Excelsior 31 draws1 NAC Breda

Goals 6–2 · 1.6 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 20%

Recent meetings

W NAC Breda 0–2 Excelsior NLD E · Regular Season
W Excelsior 1–0 NAC Breda NLD E · Regular Season
L Excelsior 1–2 NAC Breda NLD E · Regular Season
W NAC Breda 0–2 Excelsior NLD E · Regular Season
D Excelsior 0–0 NAC Breda NLD E · Regular Season
L NAC Breda 3–1 Excelsior NLD E · Regular Season
D Excelsior 0–0 NAC Breda NLD E · Regular Season
D NAC Breda 1–1 Excelsior NLD E · Regular Season
W Excelsior 3–0 NAC Breda NLD E · Regular Season
L NAC Breda 2–0 Excelsior NLD E · Regular Season

Metric	Excelsior all · 34	Excelsior at home · 17	NAC Breda all · 34	NAC Breda away · 17
Results
Matches	34	17	34	17
Points per game	1.12	1.06	0.85	0.53
W / D / L	10 / 8 / 16	5 / 3 / 9	6 / 11 / 17	1 / 6 / 10
Goals for / match	1.26	1.18	1.03	0.88
Goals against / match	1.65	1.29	1.71	2.06
Clean sheets	18%	24%	18%	12%
Failed to score	21%	24%	41%	47%
Both teams scored	65%	53%	47%	47%
Over 2.5	62%	53%	50%	59%
Expected goals
xG for / match	1.43	1.40	1.31	1.14
xG against / match	1.72	1.58	1.48	1.78
xG difference	-0.29	-0.18	-0.17	-0.64
Finishing vs xG	-0.17	-0.22	-0.28	-0.26
xPts / match	1.20	1.28	1.31	1.05
Points vs xPts	-0.09	-0.22	-0.45	-0.52
Game state
Scored first	44%	53%	26%	18%
PPG when scoring first	1.80	1.67	2.00	1.33
PPG when conceding first	0.56	0.38	0.39	0.31
Came back from behind	33%	25%	32%	33%
Leads held	62%	56%	43%	17%
Minutes leading	24%	26%	12%	10%
Minutes level	46%	49%	51%	44%
Minutes trailing	30%	25%	37%	46%
First goal (min)	39	37	48	50
First goal conceded (min)	41	45	35	32
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	51%	50%	60%	67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half	61%	64%	50%	57%
Late goals for (76'+)	0.35	0.29	0.29	0.29
Late goals against	0.26	0.29	0.47	0.71
Style
Possession	48%	49%	49%	47%
Shots	12.4	12.8	14.1	13.4
On target	4.2	4.3	4.2	4.0
Shot conversion	10%	9%	7%	7%
Shots inside box	66%	66%	61%	59%
Big chances created	2.6	3.1	1.9	1.8
Corners	4.1	4.2	5.8	5.5
xG from set plays	29%	30%	39%	34%
Goals from headers	22%	22%	23%	27%
Pressure index	7.9	9.3	11.9	9.2
Dominant minutes	38.7	42.2	44.3	37.8
Pass accuracy	77%	78%	77%	76%
Fouls	12.3	11.4	10.8	11.5
Cards	1.35	1.53	1.88	2.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Excelsior

0–15'86

16–30'58

31–45'88

46–60'416

61–75'69

76–90'129

NAC Breda

0–15'18

16–30'410

31–45'911

46–60'68

61–75'55

76–90'1016

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Excelsior · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.046

Early press (0-15, level)+0.056

Late push (76+, level)+0.203

Late chase (76+, behind)-0.692

Game state

When ahead+0.114

When level+0.026

When behind-0.243

10 min after conceding-0.134

10 min after scoring+0.366

Situations

At home-0.153

Away+0.103

4+ days rest-0.025

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.072

v bottom-tier opponents+0.143

Evenly matched+0.094

As underdog-0.262

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.066

Conceded when ahead+0.194

Conceded late (76+)+0.285

Congested vs rested -0.11 · Ahead vs level +0.09 · Behind vs level -0.26

NAC Breda

No pressure profile yet.

Excelsior

Current: winless 2 · scoring 11 · conceding 2

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	17 50%	1.35	1.06	1.65	1.25	1.95
4-3-3	9 26%	1.22	1.89	1.67	1.97	1.47
4-1-4-1	3 9%	0.67	1.33	1.67	1.1	1.53
3-4-2-1	2 6%	0.0	0.0	1.5	1.26	0.87
5-4-1	2 6%	0.5	1.5	2.0	1.48	2.13

NAC Breda

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	18 53%	0.78	1.0	1.61	1.29	1.47
5-3-2	5 15%	0.4	0.8	1.4	1.51	1.46
4-4-2	4 12%	1.25	1.75	2.0	1.28	1.51
4-1-3-2	2 6%	1.5	1.0	3.0	1.7	1.6
3-4-1-2	2 6%	0.5	0.0	1.0	1.28	1.35

Metric	Excelsior all · 10	Excelsior at home · 10	NAC Breda all · 10	NAC Breda away · 10
Results
Matches	10	10	10	10
Points per game	2.00	0.80	0.70	0.70
W / D / L	6 / 2 / 2	2 / 2 / 6	1 / 4 / 5	1 / 4 / 5
Goals for / match	2.50	1.40	1.00	0.80
Goals against / match	1.20	1.50	2.20	2.00
Clean sheets	30%	10%	20%	20%
Failed to score	0%	20%	50%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	40%	40%
Over 2.5	90%	70%	50%	50%
Expected goals
xG for / match	1.69	1.32	1.24	1.21
xG against / match	1.12	1.19	1.51	1.66
xG difference	0.57	0.13	-0.27	-0.45
Finishing vs xG	0.81	0.08	-0.24	-0.41
xPts / match	1.71	1.41	1.23	1.12
Points vs xPts	0.29	-0.61	-0.53	-0.42
Game state
Scored first	50%	30%	10%	10%
PPG when scoring first	3.00	2.00	3.00	3.00
PPG when conceding first	1.00	0.29	0.38	0.38
Came back from behind	60%	25%	38%	38%
Leads held	86%	67%	33%	33%
Minutes leading	39%	16%	7%	6%
Minutes level	33%	43%	51%	51%
Minutes trailing	28%	41%	42%	42%
First goal (min)	33	50	55	69
First goal conceded (min)	22	36	33	34
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	52%	64%	60%	75%
Goals conceded in 2nd half	58%	53%	46%	50%
Late goals for (76'+)	0.50	0.40	0.20	0.30
Late goals against	0.30	0.30	0.70	0.80
Style
Possession	48%	52%	49%	46%
Shots	13.5	12.6	15.4	14.1
On target	5.5	4.5	4.3	4.6
Shot conversion	18%	11%	6%	6%
Shots inside box	67%	70%	55%	59%
Big chances created	3.3	2.7	1.8	2.3
Corners	4.8	4.5	6.9	6.1
xG from set plays	22%	24%	37%	30%
Goals from headers	33%	31%	40%	38%
Pressure index	11.5	12.6	13.7	11.1
Dominant minutes	50.8	52.9	47.6	40.4
Pass accuracy	79%	81%	77%	76%
Fouls	11.7	9.5	10.1	10.2
Cards	1.00	1.00	1.40	1.70

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Excelsior

0–15'34

16–30'20

31–45'71

46–60'34

61–75'50

76–90'53

NAC Breda

0–15'03

16–30'14

31–45'35

46–60'02

61–75'41

76–90'27

Excelsior

Current: winless 2 · scoring 11 · conceding 2

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-3-3	6 60%	2.17	2.5	1.33	1.65	1.1
3-4-3	1 10%	1.0	2.0	2.0	1.84	1.21
4-2-3-1	1 10%	3.0	4.0	0.0	2.56	0.84
5-4-1	1 10%	3.0	3.0	0.0	1.69	1.06
4-1-4-1	1 10%	0.0	1.0	2.0	0.89	1.46

NAC Breda

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	4 40%	0.5	0.5	1.25	1.21	1.03
4-4-2	2 20%	0.5	1.5	2.5	1.28	2.26
4-1-3-2	2 20%	1.5	1.0	3.0	1.7	1.6
4-3-1-2	1 10%	1.0	3.0	3.0	1.1	1.78
3-5-2	1 10%	0.0	0.0	3.0	0.44	1.45

Metric	Excelsior all · 35	Excelsior at home · 17	NAC Breda all · 29	NAC Breda away · 14
Results
Matches	35	17	29	14
Points per game	1.29	1.06	0.86	0.57
W / D / L	12 / 9 / 14	5 / 3 / 9	5 / 10 / 14	1 / 5 / 8
Goals for / match	1.51	1.29	1.07	0.93
Goals against / match	1.46	1.41	1.69	2.00
Clean sheets	20%	18%	21%	14%
Failed to score	14%	18%	38%	43%
Both teams scored	69%	65%	48%	50%
Over 2.5	69%	65%	48%	57%
Expected goals
xG for / match	1.51	1.43	1.33	1.26
xG against / match	1.56	1.41	1.35	1.57
xG difference	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	-0.32
Finishing vs xG	0.01	-0.14	-0.26	-0.33
xPts / match	1.33	1.38	1.37	1.20
Points vs xPts	-0.05	-0.32	-0.51	-0.62
Game state
Scored first	46%	47%	24%	14%
PPG when scoring first	2.06	1.88	2.00	1.50
PPG when conceding first	0.61	0.33	0.45	0.36
Came back from behind	39%	25%	33%	33%
Leads held	67%	62%	42%	20%
Minutes leading	29%	26%	9%	7%
Minutes level	43%	45%	54%	50%
Minutes trailing	28%	30%	37%	42%
First goal (min)	36	39	52	56
First goal conceded (min)	39	40	32	34
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	49%	54%	61%	69%
Goals conceded in 2nd half	61%	67%	45%	54%
Late goals for (76'+)	0.37	0.35	0.31	0.29
Late goals against	0.26	0.29	0.41	0.71
Style
Possession	48%	50%	50%	47%
Shots	12.7	12.6	14.9	14.5
On target	4.5	4.4	4.3	4.4
Shot conversion	12%	10%	7%	6%
Shots inside box	67%	69%	61%	60%
Big chances created	2.8	3.0	2.0	2.1
Corners	4.3	4.1	6.3	6.1
xG from set plays	28%	29%	36%	33%
Goals from headers	28%	30%	26%	31%
Pressure index	8.9	10.4	13.5	10.7
Dominant minutes	41.6	45.9	48.3	42.1
Pass accuracy	78%	79%	78%	77%
Fouls	11.9	10.8	10.4	10.5
Cards	1.29	1.29	1.90	2.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Excelsior

0–15'87

16–30'76

31–45'127

46–60'515

61–75'87

76–90'139

NAC Breda

0–15'06

16–30'310

31–45'911

46–60'56

61–75'54

76–90'912

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Excelsior · 35 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: v top-tier opponents -0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.1535

Early press (0-15, level)-0.0635

Late push (76+, level)-0.2517

Late chase (76+, behind)-0.1617

Game state

When ahead-0.3018

When level-0.1535

When behind+0.0022

10 min after conceding-0.2528

10 min after scoring+0.0629

Situations

Against ten men-0.492

At home-0.1617

Away-0.1418

3 days rest or fewer-0.272

4+ days rest-0.1433

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.369

v mid-tier opponents-0.038

v bottom-tier opponents-0.0112

As favourite-0.144

Evenly matched-0.0315

As underdog-0.2616

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.2035

Conceded when ahead+0.3618

Conceded late (76+)+0.2132

Congested vs rested -0.13 · Ahead vs level -0.15 · Behind vs level +0.15

NAC Breda · 29 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.59

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.1729

Early press (0-15, level)+0.1229

Late push (76+, level)+0.0617

Late chase (76+, behind)+0.2816

Game state

When ahead-0.0811

When level+0.1529

When behind+0.2821

10 min after conceding-0.2223

10 min after scoring+0.5917

Situations

With ten men+0.265

At home+0.2115

Away+0.1314

4+ days rest+0.1729

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.117

v mid-tier opponents+0.179

v bottom-tier opponents+0.159

As favourite+0.425

Evenly matched+0.1613

As underdog+0.0711

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.0229

Conceded when ahead+0.2311

Conceded late (76+)-0.1128

Ahead vs level -0.23 · Behind vs level +0.14

Excelsior

Current: winless 2 · scoring 11 · conceding 2

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	13 37%	1.77	1.46	1.23	1.42	1.75
4-3-3	11 31%	1.27	1.82	1.64	1.83	1.45
4-1-4-1	4 11%	0.5	1.25	1.75	1.05	1.52
5-4-1	3 9%	1.33	2.0	1.33	1.55	1.77
3-4-2-1	2 6%	0.0	0.0	1.5	1.26	0.87

NAC Breda

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	13 45%	0.77	1.08	1.54	1.32	1.17
5-3-2	5 17%	0.4	0.8	1.4	1.51	1.46
4-4-2	4 14%	1.25	1.75	2.0	1.28	1.51
4-1-3-2	2 7%	1.5	1.0	3.0	1.7	1.6
3-4-1-2	2 7%	0.5	0.0	1.0	1.28	1.35

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.45Home 38% P 39%3.5Draw 27% P 27%2.7Away 35% P 34%

Double Chance

1.4Excelsior or Draw 33% P 33%1.3Excelsior or NAC 36% P 37%1.53Draw or NAC 31% P 31%

Draw No Bet

1.721 54%2.02 46%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 59% P 63%2.25No 41% P 37%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.7Over 55% P 58%2.1Under 45% P 42%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.16 - 8 28%2.629 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 32.5–35% · 572 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Home	39%	39%	39%	+0.4
Draw	27%	28%	28%	+0.1
Away	34%	34%	33%	-0.5

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 46%

Both teams to score · yes 62.5–65% · 687 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Yes	63%	64%	64%	+0.4

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Over 2.5	58%	59%	60%	+0.8

Serdar Gözübüyük

Career: 414 matches · 17 seasons
Cards / match: 3.71 (3.53 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match: 20.9 · 5.0 fouls per card
Penalties / match: 0.25
Cards to home side: 43%

Style in Eredivisie (5-year window · 108 matches)

Metric	Referee	League	vs peers	pct
Cards / match	3.94	3.32	+1.20	95
Fouls / match	22.3	20.3	+0.85
Fouls per card	5.8	6.2	-0.92 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match	0.23	0.24	-0.07	48
Time added	6.0	6.4	-0.85	10

First card: 35' on average
Card timing: 17% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
Cards to home side: 43% (league 44%)
VAR events / match: 1.13

Recent matches

Date	Y	R	Fouls	Pens	1st card	+min
2025-11-09	3	0	19	0	1'	4
2025-11-02	3	0	26	1	42'	7
2025-10-26	2	0	27	1	89'	6
2025-10-21	6	0	32	0	11'	5
2025-10-05	5	0	20	1	14'	7
2025-10-01	4	0	30	0	50'	6
2025-09-27	6	0	23	0	16'	6
2025-09-21	7	0	30	1	18'	9
2025-09-13	2	0	21	0	20'	11
2025-08-31	3	1	14	0	24'	6

Momentum

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Events

Stats

Season context

League this season · 2025/2026

Trends

Lineups

Bench

Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad

Excelsior · 2025/2026 · Eredivisie

NAC Breda

Absences

NAC Breda

Commentary

In-Play Odds

Competition

Venue

Teams

Referee

Weather

Where to watch · 71

Excelsior

NAC Breda

All meetings · 16 matches since 2006

Last 10 · 10 matches

Last 5 · 5 matches

Recent meetings

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Excelsior

NAC Breda

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Excelsior · 6 matches

NAC Breda

Excelsior

NAC Breda

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Excelsior

NAC Breda

Excelsior

NAC Breda

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Excelsior

NAC Breda

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Excelsior · 35 matches

NAC Breda · 29 matches

Excelsior

NAC Breda

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Latest prices

Fulltime Result

Double Chance

Draw No Bet

Both Teams To Score

Goals Over/Under

Total Corners

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 32.5–35% · 572 fixtures

Both teams to score · yes 62.5–65% · 687 fixtures

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

Serdar Gözübüyük

Style in Eredivisie (5-year window · 108 matches)

Recent matches