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Eredivisie · Matchweek 16

Momentum

PSVHEA
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
16

Venue

Stadium
Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
Capacity
36,500
Surface
grass
Attendance
33,800

Teams

Coaches
Peter Bosz · Ernest Faber
Position
1 · 16
Formation
4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Alex Bos

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
3.4° (feels 2.3°)
Wind
1.3
Humidity
96%

Where to watch · 285

  • Algeria STARZPLAY
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  • Finland Elisa Viihde Viaplay
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  • Moldova Setanta Sports 1
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  • Mozambique DStv Now · ESPN Africa
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  • Netherlands Canal+ Netherlands · ESPN · ESPN 2 Netherlands · ESPN Extra · Watch ESPN
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  • Oman STARZPLAY
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  • Senegal DStv Now · ESPN Africa
  • Serbia SportKlub 1 Serbia · Sportklub 9 Serbia
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  • Somalia STARZPLAY
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  • São Tomé and Príncipe ESPN Africa
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  • Turkmenistan Setanta Sports 1
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  • Ukraine Setanta Sports Ukraine
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  • United States fuboTV
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  • Uzbekistan Setanta Sports 1
  • Venezuela Disney+ · Disney+ Premium Sur · ESPN · ESPN 2 · ESPN 3
  • Yemen STARZPLAY
  • Zambia ESPN Africa
  • Zimbabwe DStv Now · ESPN Africa

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 PSV 342734 1014556 84 WWDWW
2 Feyenoord 341987 704426 65 DWWDW
3 NEC Nijmegen 3416117 775324 59 DDDLW
4 FC Twente 3415136 594019 58 WDDWL
5 Ajax 3414146 624121 56 WWDLD
6 FC Utrecht 3415811 554213 53 WLWWW
7 AZ Alkmaar 34141010 58517 52 WDDDD
8 SC Heerenveen 3414911 57534 51 LWWLD
9 FC Groningen 3414614 49454 48 DLLWW
10 Sparta Rotterdam 3412715 4062-22 43 LLDLL
11 Fortuna Sittard 3411617 4963-14 39 DLLWL
12 Go Ahead Eagles 3481412 54531 38 DDDLL
13 Excelsior 3410816 4356-13 38 DWWDW
14 Telstar 3491015 4955-6 37 LWDWW
15 PEC Zwolle 3491015 4471-27 37 DLWLL
16 FC Volendam 348818 3555-20 32 LWLDL
17 NAC Breda 3461117 3558-23 29 DLLWD
18 Heracles Almelo 345425 3585-50 19 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers Play-off
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

PSV

WWWWL 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 12 GA 4 · xG 7.78–7.06 · xPts 7.3

  • L H Atlético de Madrid 2–3 xG 2.39–1.63 UEFA CL
  • W A SC Heerenveen 2–0 xG 0.78–0.81 NLD E
  • W H FC Volendam 3–0 xG 2.1–0.73 NLD E
  • W A Liverpool 4–1 xG 1.79–2.62 UEFA CL
  • W A NAC Breda 1–0 xG 0.72–1.28 NLD E

Heracles Almelo

WWWDD 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 16 GA 7 · xG 11.64–5.6 · xPts 9.63

  • D H Telstar 1–1 xG 2.06–0.83 NLD E
  • D A Fortuna Sittard 1–1 xG 0.9–1.66 NLD E
  • W H Go Ahead Eagles 4–2 xG 3.39–0.5 NLD E
  • W A Excelsior 2–1 xG 1.28–1.8 NLD E
  • W H PEC Zwolle 8–2 xG 4.01–0.81 NLD E

All meetings · 39 matches since 2005

PSV 335 draws1 Heracles Almelo

Goals 101–23 · 3.18 per match · BTTS 49% · over 2.5 56%

Last 10 · 10 matches

PSV 91 draws0 Heracles Almelo

Goals 31–8 · 3.9 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

PSV 50 draws0 Heracles Almelo

Goals 16–6 · 4.4 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W Heracles Almelo 1–3 PSV NLD E · Regular Season
  • W PSV 4–3 Heracles Almelo NLD E · Regular Season
  • W PSV 4–1 Heracles Almelo NLD E · Regular Season
  • W Heracles Almelo 1–3 PSV NLD E · Regular Season
  • W PSV 2–0 Heracles Almelo NLD E · Regular Season
  • W Heracles Almelo 0–6 PSV NLD E · Regular Season
  • W PSV 3–1 Heracles Almelo NLD E · Regular Season
  • W Heracles Almelo 0–2 PSV NLD E · Regular Season
  • W PSV 3–0 Heracles Almelo NLD E · Regular Season
  • D Heracles Almelo 1–1 PSV neutral NLD E · Regular Season
MetricPSV all · 34PSV at home · 17Heracles Almelo all · 34Heracles Almelo away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game2.472.410.560.24
W / D / L27 / 3 / 413 / 2 / 25 / 4 / 251 / 1 / 15
Goals for / match2.973.411.030.71
Goals against / match1.321.532.502.88
Clean sheets21%12%6%0%
Failed to score3%6%47%53%
Both teams scored76%82%50%47%
Over 2.585%94%71%76%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.242.471.271.05
xG against / match1.161.181.982.20
xG difference1.081.29-0.71-1.15
Finishing vs xG0.730.95-0.24-0.34
xPts / match2.002.120.990.76
Points vs xPts0.470.29-0.43-0.53
Game state
Scored first71%71%24%18%
PPG when scoring first2.752.671.250.00
PPG when conceding first1.801.800.320.29
Came back from behind64%67%17%12%
Leads held90%87%50%25%
Minutes leading52%54%12%5%
Minutes level35%28%42%38%
Minutes trailing13%19%46%57%
First goal (min)24203536
First goal conceded (min)36363128
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half50%52%49%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half49%46%55%57%
Late goals for (76'+)0.650.760.180.12
Late goals against0.210.240.560.71
Style
Possession61%63%45%44%
Shots17.619.111.18.6
On target7.27.43.62.6
Shot conversion17%18%9%8%
Shots inside box69%67%66%67%
Big chances created4.34.22.01.6
Corners7.17.64.54.2
xG from set plays23%25%35%27%
Goals from headers25%21%14%17%
Pressure index22.826.68.25.4
Dominant minutes66.873.535.626.9
Pass accuracy86%87%77%77%
Fouls10.39.813.514.4
Cards1.561.122.243.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

PSV

0–15'166
16–30'176
31–45'1711
46–60'174
61–75'1211
76–90'227

Heracles Almelo

0–15'310
16–30'911
31–45'617
46–60'715
61–75'413
76–90'619

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

PSV · 7 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.66) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.23

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.667
Early press (0-15, level)+0.067
Late push (76+, level)-0.192

Game state

When ahead+0.576
When level+0.787
When behind+0.335
10 min after conceding+0.457
10 min after scoring+1.237

Situations

At home+0.604
Away+0.723
4+ days rest+0.606

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.112
v mid-tier opponents+0.933
v bottom-tier opponents+0.882
As favourite+0.726

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.327
Conceded when ahead-0.386
Conceded late (76+)-0.466

Congested vs rested +0.35 · Ahead vs level -0.21 · Behind vs level -0.44

Heracles Almelo

No pressure profile yet.

PSV

Current: unbeaten 13 · wins 1 · scoring 23 · conceding 11

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-120 59%2.53.051.22.241.06
4-3-311 32%2.272.731.552.191.34
4-4-22 6%3.02.50.52.670.77
3-2-4-11 3%3.05.03.01.811.95

Heracles Almelo

Current: winless 13 · scoring 1 · conceding 8

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-117 50%0.120.532.941.032.29
4-4-29 26%1.442.221.891.681.58
3-4-2-13 9%1.01.02.01.631.41
4-3-32 6%0.01.02.01.152.51
5-3-22 6%0.00.03.50.961.91

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.1Home 86% P 86%12.0Draw 8% P 8%15.0Away 6% P 6%

Double Chance

1.03PSV or Draw 47% P 47%1.05PSV or Heracles 46% P 46%7.0Draw or Heracles 7% P 7%

Draw No Bet

1.051 91%11.02 9%

Both Teams To Score

1.7Yes 55% P 55%2.05No 45% P 45%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.18Over 79% P 82%4.5Under 21% P 18%

Total Corners

15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 33%3.612 - 14 24%6.0Over 14 15%

Number of Cards

2.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 80–90% · away 0–10% · 1,427 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home86%84%86%+2.1
Draw8%11%9%-1.8
Away6%5%5%-0.3

In those fixtures: 3.6 goals a game · BTTS 44% · over 2.5 69%

Both teams to score · yes 55–57.5% · 2,581 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes55%56%57%+1.1

Alex Bos

Career
61 matches · 6 seasons
Cards / match
3.0 (2.8 yellow · 0.11 red)
Fouls / match
21.8 · 7.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.29
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Eredivisie (5-year window · 57 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.353.32-0.0243
Fouls / match21.720.3+0.57
Fouls per card7.06.2+0.94 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.350.24+1.61100
Time added6.26.4-0.4143
First card
42' on average
Card timing
13% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 44%)
VAR events / match
1.19

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-23 41 200 43'5
2025-10-19 30 280 38'6
2025-10-04 · PSV 31 150 24'4
2025-09-28 40 260 42'6
2025-09-13 30 321 21'11
2025-08-30 50 270 23'7
2025-08-16 · Heracles Almelo 41 200 13'5
2025-05-18 20 141 55'5
2025-04-12 31 251 29'2
2025-03-29 71 272 45'11