Rating 6.99 (74th pct) · G+A 5 + 2 (16% of team goals) · 87% of minutes
Eredivisie · Matchweek 21
Momentum
– ExcelsiorAjax –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
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Events
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Stats
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Season context
| Excelsior | at home | Stat | league | away | Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47.6 #11 | – | Ball possession | 50.0 | – | 56.4 #3 |
| 12.4 #14 | – | Shots total | 14.1 | – | 14.9 #9 |
| 4.2 #14 | – | Shots on target | 5.2 | – | 5.9 #5 |
| 4.1 #16 | – | Corners | 5.2 | – | 4.9 #11 |
| 12.3 #2 | – | Fouls | 10.9 | – | 10.2 #13 |
| 1.0 #17 | – | Offsides | 1.4 | – | 1.4 #8 |
| 14.1 #17 | – | Tackles | 16.2 | – | 16.7 #8 |
| 98.8 #8 | – | Attacks | 97.3 | – | 102.1 #6 |
| 41.1 #13 | – | Dangerous attacks | 46.1 | – | 51.3 #5 |
| 404.5 #10 | – | Passes | 419.2 | – | 529.1 #2 |
| 1.3 #18 | – | Yellowcards | 1.6 | – | 1.7 #7 |
| 0.1 #4 | – | Redcards | 0.1 | – | 0.0 #11 |
| 0.8 #16 | – | Assists | 1.2 | – | 1.4 #4 |
| – #7 | – | Btts | 62.8 | – | – #5 |
| – #10 | – | Cleansheet | 20.2 | – | – #2 |
| – #11 | – | Draw | 26.2 | – | – #1 |
| 1.4 #11 | – | Expected goals | 1.6 | – | 1.7 #7 |
| -0.1 #12 | – | Expected goals difference | -0.0 | – | 0.1 #5 |
| – #8 | – | Failed to score | 20.3 | – | – #16 |
| 1.3 #14 | 1.2 | Goals | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 #4 |
| 1.6 #6 | 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 #18 |
| 0.3 #5 | – | Injury time goals | 0.3 | – | 0.2 #15 |
| 9.1 #6 | – | Interceptions | 8.8 | – | 9.6 #3 |
| – #5 | – | Lost | 37.0 | – | – #17 |
| 0.1 #9 | – | Penalties scored | 0.1 | – | 0.0 #16 |
| 6.8 #14 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.9 #2 |
| 3.4 #13 | – | Shots blocked | 3.8 | – | 3.9 #9 |
| 8.2 #13 | – | Shots insidebox | 9.2 | – | 10.1 #7 |
| 4.9 #12 | – | Shots off target | 5.1 | – | 5.1 #11 |
| 4.2 #15 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.9 | – | 4.8 #9 |
| – #12 | – | Win | 36.8 | – | – #6 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 18.
League this season · 2025/2026
- Played
- 309 of 309
- Goals / match
- 3.17 (home 1.8 · away 1.37)
- Home / draw / away
- 45% · 26% · 29%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 63% · 61%
- Cards / match
- 3.47 (reds 0.1)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Excelsior · 2025/2026 · Eredivisie
Rating 6.9 (72th pct) · G+A 1 + 1 (5% of team goals) · 100% of minutes
Rating 7.12 (93th pct) · G+A 0 + 1 (2% of team goals) · 92% of minutes
Ajax · 2025/2026 · Eredivisie
Rating 7.14 (95th pct) · G+A 4 + 1 (8% of team goals) · 90% of minutes
Rating 6.96 (65th pct) · G+A 8 + 2 (15% of team goals) · 61% of minutes
Team 1.91 ppg with (23) · 1.23 without (13)
Rating 7.32 (97th pct) · G+A 4 + 2 (9% of team goals) · 39% of minutes
Team 1.69 ppg with (16) · 1.65 without (20)
Absences
Ajax
- injury Kian Fitz-Jim midfielder · Unknown Injury · 1 missed · until 2026-02-07
- injury Oscar Gloukh #4 key player midfielder · Unknown Injury · 1 missed · until 2026-02-07
- injury Owen Wijndal #11 key player defender · Unknown Injury · 1 missed · until 2026-02-07
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 21
Venue
- Stadium
- Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam
- Capacity
- 4,500
- Surface
- artificial turf
- Attendance
- 4,500
Teams
- Coaches
- Ruben den Uil · Fred Grim
- Position
- 13 · 4
- Formation
- 4-1-4-1 · 4-3-3
Referee
Marc Nagtegaal
Weather
- Conditions
- broken clouds
- Temperature
- 7.8° (feels 5.3°)
- Wind
- 4.1
- Humidity
- 93%
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2025/2026
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV |
34 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 101 | 45 | 56 | 84 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Feyenoord |
34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 44 | 26 | 65 | DWWDW |
| 3 |  NEC Nijmegen |
34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 77 | 53 | 24 | 59 | DDDLW |
| 4 |  FC Twente |
34 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 59 | 40 | 19 | 58 | WDDWL |
| 5 |  Ajax |
34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 62 | 41 | 21 | 56 | WWDLD |
| 6 |  FC Utrecht |
34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 55 | 42 | 13 | 53 | WLWWW |
| 7 |  AZ Alkmaar |
34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 58 | 51 | 7 | 52 | WDDDD |
| 8 |  SC Heerenveen |
34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 51 | LWWLD |
| 9 |  FC Groningen |
34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 48 | DLLWW |
| 10 |  Sparta Rotterdam |
34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 43 | LLDLL |
| 11 |  Fortuna Sittard |
34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 49 | 63 | -14 | 39 | DLLWL |
| 12 |  Go Ahead Eagles |
34 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 54 | 53 | 1 | 38 | DDDLL |
| 13 |  Excelsior |
34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 43 | 56 | -13 | 38 | DWWDW |
| 14 |  Telstar |
34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 37 | LWDWW |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle |
34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 37 | DLWLL |
| 16 |  FC Volendam |
34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 35 | 55 | -20 | 32 | LWLDL |
| 17 |  NAC Breda |
34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 35 | 58 | -23 | 29 | DLLWD |
| 18 |  Heracles Almelo |
34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 35 | 85 | -50 | 19 | LLLLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV |
17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 58 | 26 | 32 | 41 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Feyenoord |
17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 23 | 16 | 36 | DWWDW |
| 3 | FC Utrecht |
17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 33 | WLWWW |
| 4 | NEC Nijmegen |
17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 41 | 25 | 16 | 32 | DDDLW |
| 5 | FC Twente |
17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 32 | WDDWL |
| 6 | Ajax |
17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 31 | WWDLD |
| 7 | AZ Alkmaar |
17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 39 | 26 | 13 | 31 | WDDDD |
| 8 | SC Heerenveen |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 30 | LWWLD |
| 9 | PEC Zwolle |
17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 28 | DLWLL |
| 10 | Go Ahead Eagles |
17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 34 | 24 | 10 | 25 | DDDLL |
| 11 | FC Groningen |
17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 25 | DLLWW |
| 12 | Fortuna Sittard |
17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 25 | DLLWL |
| 13 | FC Volendam |
17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 23 | 1 | 23 | LWLDL |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam |
17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 23 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Telstar |
17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 20 | LWDWW |
| 16 | NAC Breda |
17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 20 | DLLWD |
| 17 | Excelsior |
17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 18 | DWWDW |
| 18 | Heracles Almelo |
17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 36 | -13 | 15 | LLLLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV |
17 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 43 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Feyenoord |
17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 21 | 10 | 29 | DWWDW |
| 3 | NEC Nijmegen |
17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 36 | 28 | 8 | 27 | DDDLW |
| 4 | FC Twente |
17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 30 | 24 | 6 | 26 | WDDWL |
| 5 | Ajax |
17 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 30 | 24 | 6 | 25 | WWDLD |
| 6 | FC Groningen |
17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 23 | DLLWW |
| 7 | SC Heerenveen |
17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 21 | LWWLD |
| 8 | AZ Alkmaar |
17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 21 | WDDDD |
| 9 | FC Utrecht |
17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 20 | WLWWW |
| 10 | Excelsior |
17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 20 | DWWDW |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam |
17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 35 | -16 | 20 | LLDLL |
| 12 | Telstar |
17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 17 | LWDWW |
| 13 | Fortuna Sittard |
17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 14 | DLLWL |
| 14 | Go Ahead Eagles |
17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 13 | DDDLL |
| 15 | NAC Breda |
17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 35 | -20 | 9 | DLLWD |
| 16 | FC Volendam |
17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 32 | -21 | 9 | LWLDL |
| 17 | PEC Zwolle |
17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 23 | 50 | -27 | 9 | DLWLL |
| 18 | Heracles Almelo |
17 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 12 | 49 | -37 | 4 | LLLLL |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
- UEFA Europa League Qualifiers
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers Play-off
- Relegation Play-off
- Relegation
Excelsior
WLDDD 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 6 GA 9 · xG 5.82–8.06 · xPts 5.48
- D
A
FC Twente
0–0
xG 0.84–1.62
NLD E
- D
A
AZ Alkmaar
1–1
xG 1.06–1.52
NLD E
- D
H
Telstar
2–2
xG 1.71–1.59
NLD E
- L
A
PSV
1–5
xG 0.6–2.22
NLD E
- W
H
PEC Zwolle
2–1
xG 1.62–1.11
NLD E
DLWWLWLDDD 3W 4D 3L · 13 pts (1.3 ppg) · GF 12 GA 16 · xG 14.76–18.64 · xPts 11.37
- D
A
FC Twente
0–0
xG 0.84–1.62
NLD E
- D
A
AZ Alkmaar
1–1
xG 1.06–1.52
NLD E
- D
H
Telstar
2–2
xG 1.71–1.59
NLD E
- L
A
PSV
1–5
xG 0.6–2.22
NLD E
- W
H
PEC Zwolle
2–1
xG 1.62–1.11
NLD E
- L
H
FC Groningen
0–2
xG 1.74–3.04
NLD E
- W
H
NAC Breda
1–0
xG 1.03–1.64
NLD E
- W
A
Ajax
2–1
xG 0.56–2.13
NLD E
- L
H
Heracles Almelo
1–2
xG 1.8–1.28
NLD E
- D
A
Telstar
2–2
xG 3.81–2.49
NLD E
Ajax
WDWWL 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 10 GA 7 · xG 11.34–4.62 · xPts 10.53
- L
H
Olympiacos F.C.
1–2
xG 2.02–0.75
UEFA CL - W
H
FC Volendam
2–0
xG 2.91–0.34
NLD E
- W
A
Villarreal
2–1
xG 1.11–1.87
UEFA CL - D
H
Go Ahead Eagles
2–2
xG 3.45–0.64
NLD E
- W
A
Telstar
3–2
xG 1.84–1.02
NLD E
WWWWDWDWWL 7W 2D 1L · 23 pts (2.3 ppg) · GF 23 GA 12 · xG 18.88–12.96 · xPts 17.03
- L
H
Olympiacos F.C.
1–2
xG 2.02–0.75
UEFA CL
- W
H
FC Volendam
2–0
xG 2.91–0.34
NLD E
- W
A
Villarreal
2–1
xG 1.11–1.87
UEFA CL
- D
H
Go Ahead Eagles
2–2
xG 3.45–0.64
NLD E
- W
A
Telstar
3–2
xG 1.84–1.02
NLD E
- D
A
NEC Nijmegen
2–2
xG 1.81–1.63
NLD E
- W
H
Feyenoord
2–0
xG 1.26–1.95
NLD E
- W
A
Qarabağ
4–2
xG 1.89–1.09
UEFA CL - W
A
Fortuna Sittard
3–1
xG 1.31–2.35
NLD E
- W
H
FC Groningen
2–0
xG 1.27–1.33
NLD E
All meetings · 24 matches since 2006
Goals 26–70 · 4.0 per match · BTTS 75% · over 2.5 79%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 15–36 · 5.1 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 9–11 · 4.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%
Recent meetings
- D Excelsior 2–2 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
- W Ajax 1–2 Excelsior NLD E · Regular Season
- D Ajax 2–2 Excelsior NLD E · Regular Season
- D Excelsior 2–2 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
- L Excelsior 1–4 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
- L Ajax 7–1 Excelsior NLD E · Regular Season
- L Ajax 6–2 Excelsior NLD E · Regular Season
- L Excelsior 1–7 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
- L Excelsior 1–2 Ajax NLD E · Regular Season
- L Ajax 3–1 Excelsior NLD E · Regular Season
| Metric | Excelsior all · 34 | Excelsior at home · 17 | Ajax all · 36 | Ajax away · 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 34 | 17 | 36 | 17 |
| Points per game | 1.12 | 1.06 | 1.67 | 1.47 |
| W / D / L | 10 / 8 / 16 | 5 / 3 / 9 | 15 / 15 / 6 | 5 / 10 / 2 |
| Goals for / match | 1.26 | 1.18 | 1.81 | 1.76 |
| Goals against / match | 1.65 | 1.29 | 1.17 | 1.41 |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 24% | 31% | 24% |
| Failed to score | 21% | 24% | 8% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 53% | 67% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 53% | 56% | 65% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.43 | 1.40 | 1.72 | 1.39 |
| xG against / match | 1.72 | 1.58 | 1.48 | 1.61 |
| xG difference | -0.29 | -0.18 | 0.24 | -0.21 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.17 | -0.22 | 0.08 | 0.37 |
| xPts / match | 1.20 | 1.28 | 1.52 | 1.27 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.09 | -0.22 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 44% | 53% | 58% | 41% |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.80 | 1.67 | 2.24 | 1.86 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.56 | 0.38 | 0.85 | 1.25 |
| Came back from behind | 33% | 25% | 60% | 80% |
| Leads held | 62% | 56% | 62% | 50% |
| Minutes leading | 24% | 26% | 37% | 27% |
| Minutes level | 46% | 49% | 46% | 49% |
| Minutes trailing | 30% | 25% | 16% | 24% |
| First goal (min) | 39 | 37 | 34 | 38 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 41 | 45 | 41 | 34 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 51% | 50% | 42% | 47% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 61% | 64% | 58% | 58% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.35 | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| Late goals against | 0.26 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 48% | 49% | 56% | 56% |
| Shots | 12.4 | 12.8 | 14.9 | 13.4 |
| On target | 4.2 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 5.2 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 9% | 12% | 13% |
| Shots inside box | 66% | 66% | 68% | 66% |
| Big chances created | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| Corners | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.4 |
| xG from set plays | 29% | 30% | 20% | 16% |
| Goals from headers | 22% | 22% | 16% | 21% |
| Pressure index | 7.9 | 9.3 | 16.0 | 13.5 |
| Dominant minutes | 38.7 | 42.2 | 56.7 | 48.6 |
| Pass accuracy | 77% | 78% | 85% | 84% |
| Fouls | 12.3 | 11.4 | 10.3 | 9.8 |
| Cards | 1.35 | 1.53 | 1.81 | 2.24 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Excelsior
0–15'86
16–30'58
31–45'88
46–60'416
61–75'69
76–90'129
Ajax
0–15'106
16–30'125
31–45'156
46–60'128
61–75'47
76–90'119
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Excelsior · 6 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.36
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.046
Early press (0-15, level)+0.056
Late push (76+, level)+0.203
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.692
Game state
When ahead+0.114
When level+0.026
When behind-0.243
10 min after conceding-0.134
10 min after scoring+0.366
Situations
At home-0.153
Away+0.103
4+ days rest-0.025
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents-0.072
v bottom-tier opponents+0.143
Evenly matched+0.094
As underdog-0.262
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.066
Conceded when ahead+0.194
Conceded late (76+)+0.285
Congested vs rested -0.11 · Ahead vs level +0.09 · Behind vs level -0.26
Ajax · 12 matches
Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.65) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) +0.90
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.6512
Early press (0-15, level)+0.9012
Late push (76+, level)+0.053
Game state
When ahead+0.6811
When level+0.8012
When behind-0.184
10 min after conceding-0.219
10 min after scoring+0.8112
Situations
At home+0.686
Away+0.626
3 days rest or fewer+0.544
4+ days rest+0.708
Opposition
v bottom-tier opponents+0.735
As favourite+0.7311
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.1912
Conceded when ahead-0.2911
Conceded late (76+)-0.399
Congested vs rested -0.17 · Ahead vs level -0.12 · Behind vs level -0.98
Excelsior
Current: winless 2 · scoring 11 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 17 50% | 1.35 | 1.06 | 1.65 | 1.25 | 1.95 |
| 4-3-3 | 9 26% | 1.22 | 1.89 | 1.67 | 1.97 | 1.47 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 3 9% | 0.67 | 1.33 | 1.67 | 1.1 | 1.53 |
| 5-4-1 | 2 6% | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.48 | 2.13 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 2 6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.26 | 0.87 |
Ajax
Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 14 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 25 69% | 1.6 | 1.88 | 1.16 | 1.81 | 1.52 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 8 22% | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.54 | 1.38 |
| 5-4-1 | 2 6% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.26 | 1.64 |
| 4-3-2-1 | 1 3% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.84 | 1.02 |
| Metric | Excelsior all · 10 | Excelsior at home · 10 | Ajax all · 10 | Ajax away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 0.80 | 2.30 | 2.40 |
| W / D / L | 6 / 2 / 2 | 2 / 2 / 6 | 7 / 2 / 1 | 7 / 3 / 0 |
| Goals for / match | 2.50 | 1.40 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Goals against / match | 1.20 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | 20% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | 0% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 80% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 70% | 90% | 60% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.69 | 1.32 | 2.99 | 1.88 |
| xG against / match | 1.12 | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.26 |
| xG difference | 0.57 | 0.13 | 1.81 | 0.62 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.81 | 0.08 | 0.31 | 0.82 |
| xPts / match | 1.71 | 1.41 | 2.17 | 1.74 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.29 | -0.61 | 0.13 | 0.67 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 50% | 30% | 80% | 80% |
| PPG when scoring first | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| PPG when conceding first | 1.00 | 0.29 | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Came back from behind | 60% | 25% | 67% | 100% |
| Leads held | 86% | 67% | 78% | 78% |
| Minutes leading | 39% | 16% | 51% | 49% |
| Minutes level | 33% | 43% | 40% | 49% |
| Minutes trailing | 28% | 41% | 9% | 2% |
| First goal (min) | 33 | 50 | 30 | 35 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 22 | 36 | 42 | 45 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 52% | 64% | 58% | 63% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 58% | 53% | 53% | 57% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| Late goals against | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 48% | 52% | 63% | 59% |
| Shots | 13.5 | 12.6 | 24.0 | 17.9 |
| On target | 5.5 | 4.5 | 8.9 | 7.1 |
| Shot conversion | 18% | 11% | 14% | 15% |
| Shots inside box | 67% | 70% | 67% | 63% |
| Big chances created | 3.3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
| Corners | 4.8 | 4.5 | 8.4 | 6.7 |
| xG from set plays | 22% | 24% | 18% | 16% |
| Goals from headers | 33% | 31% | 19% | 18% |
| Pressure index | 11.5 | 12.6 | 23.7 | 16.3 |
| Dominant minutes | 50.8 | 52.9 | 66.4 | 54.5 |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 81% | 90% | 87% |
| Fouls | 11.7 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 10.3 |
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.30 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Excelsior
0–15'34
16–30'20
31–45'71
46–60'34
61–75'50
76–90'53
Ajax
0–15'31
16–30'32
31–45'84
46–60'71
61–75'51
76–90'76
Excelsior
Current: winless 2 · scoring 11 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 6 60% | 2.17 | 2.5 | 1.33 | 1.65 | 1.1 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.56 | 0.84 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.89 | 1.46 |
| 3-4-3 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.84 | 1.21 |
| 5-4-1 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.69 | 1.06 |
Ajax
Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 14 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 6 60% | 2.17 | 3.67 | 2.0 | 2.85 | 1.47 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 2 20% | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.04 | 0.97 |
| 4-4-1-1 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.14 | 0.88 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 6.61 | 0.2 |
| Metric | Excelsior all · 35 | Excelsior at home · 17 | Ajax all · 50 | Ajax away · 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 35 | 17 | 50 | 25 |
| Points per game | 1.29 | 1.06 | 1.68 | 1.80 |
| W / D / L | 12 / 9 / 14 | 5 / 3 / 9 | 23 / 15 / 12 | 12 / 9 / 4 |
| Goals for / match | 1.51 | 1.29 | 2.08 | 2.20 |
| Goals against / match | 1.46 | 1.41 | 1.48 | 1.56 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 18% | 22% | 24% |
| Failed to score | 14% | 18% | 12% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 65% | 70% | 72% |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 65% | 70% | 76% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.51 | 1.43 | 1.92 | 1.56 |
| xG against / match | 1.56 | 1.41 | 1.51 | 1.58 |
| xG difference | -0.05 | 0.02 | 0.42 | -0.03 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.01 | -0.14 | 0.16 | 0.64 |
| xPts / match | 1.33 | 1.38 | 1.57 | 1.38 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.05 | -0.32 | 0.11 | 0.42 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 46% | 47% | 52% | 44% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.06 | 1.88 | 2.31 | 2.27 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.61 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Came back from behind | 39% | 25% | 50% | 69% |
| Leads held | 67% | 62% | 70% | 71% |
| Minutes leading | 29% | 26% | 35% | 30% |
| Minutes level | 43% | 45% | 44% | 45% |
| Minutes trailing | 28% | 30% | 21% | 25% |
| First goal (min) | 36 | 39 | 35 | 39 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 39 | 40 | 39 | 33 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 49% | 54% | 52% | 60% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 61% | 67% | 56% | 54% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.37 | 0.35 | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| Late goals against | 0.26 | 0.29 | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 48% | 50% | 57% | 57% |
| Shots | 12.7 | 12.6 | 16.2 | 14.7 |
| On target | 4.5 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 5.6 |
| Shot conversion | 12% | 10% | 13% | 15% |
| Shots inside box | 67% | 69% | 66% | 62% |
| Big chances created | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 5.2 |
| xG from set plays | 28% | 29% | 20% | 19% |
| Goals from headers | 28% | 30% | 14% | 17% |
| Pressure index | 8.9 | 10.4 | 16.4 | 14.1 |
| Dominant minutes | 41.6 | 45.9 | 54.7 | 49.0 |
| Pass accuracy | 78% | 79% | 86% | 86% |
| Fouls | 11.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 9.8 |
| Cards | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.82 | 2.16 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Excelsior
0–15'87
16–30'76
31–45'127
46–60'515
61–75'87
76–90'139
Ajax
0–15'1311
16–30'139
31–45'2412
46–60'2215
61–75'118
76–90'2018
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Excelsior · 35 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: v top-tier opponents -0.36
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.1535
Early press (0-15, level)-0.0635
Late push (76+, level)-0.2517
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.1617
Game state
When ahead-0.3018
When level-0.1535
When behind+0.0022
10 min after conceding-0.2528
10 min after scoring+0.0629
Situations
Against ten men-0.492
At home-0.1617
Away-0.1418
3 days rest or fewer-0.272
4+ days rest-0.1433
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.369
v mid-tier opponents-0.038
v bottom-tier opponents-0.0112
As favourite-0.144
Evenly matched-0.0315
As underdog-0.2616
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.2035
Conceded when ahead+0.3618
Conceded late (76+)+0.2132
Congested vs rested -0.13 · Ahead vs level -0.15 · Behind vs level +0.15
Ajax · 50 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.24) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.62
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.2450
Early press (0-15, level)+0.2750
Late push (76+, level)-0.1719
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.3115
Game state
When ahead+0.4232
When level+0.1650
When behind+0.1324
10 min after conceding-0.1336
10 min after scoring+0.6243
Situations
Against ten men+0.195
At home+0.2425
Away+0.2425
3 days rest or fewer+0.288
4+ days rest+0.2342
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.1212
v mid-tier opponents+0.1712
v bottom-tier opponents+0.4213
As favourite+0.4032
Evenly matched+0.0510
As underdog-0.228
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.0650
Conceded when ahead-0.1632
Conceded late (76+)-0.0542
Congested vs rested +0.04 · Ahead vs level +0.26 · Behind vs level -0.03
Excelsior
Current: winless 2 · scoring 11 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 13 37% | 1.77 | 1.46 | 1.23 | 1.42 | 1.75 |
| 4-3-3 | 11 31% | 1.27 | 1.82 | 1.64 | 1.83 | 1.45 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 4 11% | 0.5 | 1.25 | 1.75 | 1.05 | 1.52 |
| 5-4-1 | 3 9% | 1.33 | 2.0 | 1.33 | 1.55 | 1.77 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 2 6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.26 | 0.87 |
Ajax
Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 14 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 33 66% | 1.76 | 2.3 | 1.42 | 2.01 | 1.49 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 11 22% | 1.0 | 1.27 | 2.0 | 1.46 | 1.79 |
| 5-4-1 | 2 4% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.26 | 1.64 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 2 4% | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3.68 | 0.56 |
| 4-3-2-1 | 1 2% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.84 | 1.02 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.
Latest prices
bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
4.0Home 24% P 24%3.8Draw 25% P 25%1.83Away 52% P 51%
Double Chance
2.0Excelsior or Draw 23% P 24%1.25Excelsior or Ajax 38% P 38%1.2Draw or Ajax 39% P 38%
Draw No Bet
3.41 28%1.32 72%
Both Teams To Score
1.57Yes 59% P 60%2.25No 41% P 40%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.57Over 60% P 59%2.35Under 40% P 41%
Total Corners
9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%
Number of Cards
2.51.57Over 59%2.25Under 41%
3.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 22.5–25% · away 50–52.5% · 348 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 24% | 24% | 27% | +3.4 |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 29% | +3.7 |
| Away | 51% | 51% | 44% | -7.1 |
In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 54%
Both teams to score · yes 57.5–60% · 1,955 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | 59% | 60% | +1.5 |
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 59% | 60% | +0.8 |
Marc Nagtegaal
- Career
- 90 matches · 8 seasons
- Cards / match
- 2.73 (2.63 yellow · 0.04 red)
- Fouls / match
- 19.5 · 7.2 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.24
- Cards to home side
- 44%
Style in Eredivisie (5-year window · 69 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 2.71 | 3.32 | -1.33 | 10 |
| Fouls / match | 19.1 | 20.3 | -0.80 | |
| Fouls per card | 7.5 | 6.2 | +1.54 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.29 | 0.24 | +0.75 | 76 |
| Time added | 6.2 | 6.4 | -0.41 | 43 |
- First card
- 42' on average
- Card timing
- 18% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 43% (league 44%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.38
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | 6 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 23' | 6 |
| 2025-12-21 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 37' | 8 |
| 2025-12-06 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 75' | 5 |
| 2025-11-22 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 66' | 5 |
| 2025-11-06 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 45' | 4 |
| 2025-11-01 | – | – | 12 | – | – | 7 |
| 2025-10-18 | 5 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 22' | 6 |
| 2025-09-27 · Ajax | 6 | 1 | 25 | 1 | 39' | 11 |
| 2025-09-24 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 29' | 6 |
| 2025-09-20 · Excelsior | 5 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 28' | 5 |