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Eredivisie · Matchweek 28

Momentum

PEC ZwolleNAC Breda
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
28

Venue

Stadium
MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle
Capacity
14,000
Surface
artificial turf

Teams

Coaches
Henry van der Vegt · Carl Hoefkens
Position
13 · 17
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Erwin Blank

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
4.5° (feels 1.5°)
Wind
3.6
Humidity
91%

Where to watch · 251

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 PSV 342734 1014556 84 WWDWW
2 Feyenoord 341987 704426 65 DWWDW
3 NEC Nijmegen 3416117 775324 59 DDDLW
4 FC Twente 3415136 594019 58 WDDWL
5 Ajax 3414146 624121 56 WWDLD
6 FC Utrecht 3415811 554213 53 WLWWW
7 AZ Alkmaar 34141010 58517 52 WDDDD
8 SC Heerenveen 3414911 57534 51 LWWLD
9 FC Groningen 3414614 49454 48 DLLWW
10 Sparta Rotterdam 3412715 4062-22 43 LLDLL
11 Fortuna Sittard 3411617 4963-14 39 DLLWL
12 Go Ahead Eagles 3481412 54531 38 DDDLL
13 Excelsior 3410816 4356-13 38 DWWDW
14 Telstar 3491015 4955-6 37 LWDWW
15 PEC Zwolle 3491015 4471-27 37 DLWLL
16 FC Volendam 348818 3555-20 32 LWLDL
17 NAC Breda 3461117 3558-23 29 DLLWD
18 Heracles Almelo 345425 3585-50 19 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers Play-off
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

PEC Zwolle

LDDDD 0W 4D 1L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 5 GA 7 · xG 7.56–10.21 · xPts 5.73

  • D H FC Groningen 1–1 xG 2.14–3.01 NLD E
  • D A Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 xG 1.54–2.28 NLD E
  • D H Ajax 0–0 xG 1.38–0.65 NLD E
  • D A FC Utrecht 1–1 xG 0.97–2.75 NLD E
  • L A SC Heerenveen 2–4 xG 1.53–1.52 NLD E

NAC Breda

WWLDL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 12 · xG 5.36–7.28 · xPts 5.62

  • L A Go Ahead Eagles 0–6 xG 1.23–1.95 NLD E
  • D H Feyenoord 3–3 xG 1.1–1.78 NLD E
  • L A Telstar 0–3 xG 0.44–1.45 NLD E
  • W H FC Volendam 1–0 xG 1.27–0.55 NLD E
  • W A Heracles Almelo 1–0 xG 1.32–1.55 NLD E

All meetings · 14 matches since 2012

PEC Zwolle 74 draws3 NAC Breda

Goals 20–14 · 2.43 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 57%

Last 10 · 10 matches

PEC Zwolle 53 draws2 NAC Breda

Goals 16–10 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

PEC Zwolle 22 draws1 NAC Breda

Goals 8–6 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W PEC Zwolle 2–1 NAC Breda NLD E · Regular Season
  • D NAC Breda 2–2 PEC Zwolle NLD E · Regular Season
  • W NAC Breda 1–3 PEC Zwolle NLD E · Regular Season
  • L PEC Zwolle 1–2 NAC Breda NLD E · Regular Season
  • D NAC Breda 0–0 PEC Zwolle NLD E · Regular Season
  • D PEC Zwolle 0–0 NAC Breda NLD E · Regular Season
  • W PEC Zwolle 1–0 NAC Breda NLD E · Regular Season
  • W NAC Breda 0–2 PEC Zwolle NLD E · Regular Season
  • W PEC Zwolle 4–1 NAC Breda NLD E · Regular Season
  • L NAC Breda 3–1 PEC Zwolle neutral NLD E · Regular Season
MetricPEC Zwolle all · 34PEC Zwolle at home · 17NAC Breda all · 34NAC Breda away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.091.650.850.53
W / D / L9 / 10 / 158 / 4 / 56 / 11 / 171 / 6 / 10
Goals for / match1.291.241.030.88
Goals against / match2.091.241.712.06
Clean sheets18%29%18%12%
Failed to score18%29%41%47%
Both teams scored68%47%47%47%
Over 2.562%47%50%59%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.081.141.311.14
xG against / match1.941.641.481.78
xG difference-0.86-0.50-0.17-0.64
Finishing vs xG0.220.10-0.28-0.26
xPts / match0.911.071.311.05
Points vs xPts0.180.58-0.45-0.52
Game state
Scored first50%65%26%18%
PPG when scoring first1.822.362.001.33
PPG when conceding first0.310.200.390.31
Came back from behind25%17%32%33%
Leads held53%73%43%17%
Minutes leading27%39%12%10%
Minutes level44%49%51%44%
Minutes trailing28%12%37%46%
First goal (min)38264850
First goal conceded (min)39503532
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half48%33%60%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half54%62%50%57%
Late goals for (76'+)0.210.180.290.29
Late goals against0.560.470.470.71
Style
Possession45%43%49%47%
Shots9.69.914.113.4
On target3.53.54.24.0
Shot conversion13%12%7%7%
Shots inside box64%63%61%59%
Big chances created2.22.41.91.8
Corners3.64.15.85.5
xG from set plays24%30%39%34%
Goals from headers20%24%23%27%
Pressure index7.38.011.99.2
Dominant minutes31.132.644.337.8
Pass accuracy78%76%77%76%
Fouls11.412.410.811.5
Cards1.821.651.882.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

PEC Zwolle

0–15'107
16–30'610
31–45'716
46–60'710
61–75'79
76–90'719

NAC Breda

0–15'18
16–30'410
31–45'911
46–60'68
61–75'55
76–90'1016

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

PEC Zwolle · 6 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.21) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.216
Early press (0-15, level)-0.226
Late push (76+, level)+0.462
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.494

Game state

When ahead+0.003
When level-0.246
When behind-0.225
10 min after conceding-0.485
10 min after scoring+0.074

Situations

At home-0.213
Away-0.213
4+ days rest-0.216

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.453
v bottom-tier opponents-0.062
As underdog-0.216

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.476
Conceded when ahead+0.393
Conceded late (76+)+0.085

Ahead vs level +0.24 · Behind vs level +0.02

NAC Breda

No pressure profile yet.

PEC Zwolle

Current: winless 3 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-116 47%1.061.251.811.091.76
4-3-314 41%1.431.51.641.122.01
4-1-4-12 6%0.00.53.51.251.83
4-5-11 3%0.00.04.00.191.96
4-4-21 3%0.02.08.00.814.01

NAC Breda

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-118 53%0.781.01.611.291.47
5-3-25 15%0.40.81.41.511.46
4-4-24 12%1.251.752.01.281.51
3-4-1-22 6%0.50.01.01.281.35
4-1-3-22 6%1.51.03.01.71.6

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.25Home 42% P 41%3.4Draw 28% P 27%3.2Away 30% P 31%

Double Chance

1.36PEC Zwolle or Draw 34% P 34%1.3PEC Zwolle or NAC 36% P 36%1.57Draw or NAC 30% P 29%

Draw No Bet

1.661 56%2.12 44%

Both Teams To Score

1.61Yes 58% P 58%2.2No 42% P 42%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.75Over 54% P 54%2.05Under 46% P 46%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.26 - 8 28%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 30–32.5% · 701 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home41%41%41%-0.1
Draw27%28%26%-1.9
Away31%31%33%+2.1

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 52%

Both teams to score · yes 57.5–60% · 1,955 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes58%59%60%+1.5

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,940 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.554%54%54%+0.8

Erwin Blank

Career
61 matches · 9 seasons
Cards / match
3.48 (3.41 yellow · 0.03 red)
Fouls / match
23.7 · 6.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.2
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Eredivisie (5-year window · 45 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.493.32+0.2759
Fouls / match22.520.3+1.03
Fouls per card6.86.2+0.54 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.180.24-0.6914
Time added6.16.4-0.6427
First card
40' on average
Card timing
10% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
43% (league 44%)
VAR events / match
1.13

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-02-28 30 291 62'6
2026-02-14 30 130 20'7
2026-01-25 40 250 28'14
2026-01-17 · NAC Breda 40 280 8'8
2025-12-07 30 160 42'5
2025-11-22 20 200 39'5
2025-10-25 · PEC Zwolle 10 230 69'10
2025-09-20 40 190 47'7
2025-08-31 50 241 39'14
2025-08-10 30 260 46'3