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Championship · Matchweek 6
Derby CountyDerby County
0–1
FT
Preston North EndPNE

Momentum

– Derby CountyPNE –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
6

Venue

Stadium
Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Capacity
33,597
Surface
grass
Attendance
29,143

Teams

Coaches
John Eustace · Paul Heckingbottom
Position
19 · 9
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-5-2

Referee

Lewis Smith

Weather

Conditions
moderate rain
Temperature
16.7° (feels 16.8°)
Wind
14.6
Humidity
89%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Derby County

LLDDW 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 8 GA 11 · xG 4.0–10.67 · xPts 2.91

  • W A West Bromwich Albion 1–0 xG 0.32–1.59 UK CHAMP
  • D A Ipswich Town 2–2 xG 1.45–3.32 UK CHAMP
  • D H Bristol City 1–1 xG 0.35–0.8 UK CHAMP
  • L H Coventry City 3–5 xG 1.44–3.61 UK CHAMP
  • L A Stoke City 1–3 xG 0.45–1.35 UK CHAMP

Preston North End

DWWLD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 6 GA 5 · xG 5.84–6.76 · xPts 6.09

  • D H Middlesbrough 2–2 xG 1.13–1.76 UK CHAMP
  • L A Portsmouth 0–1 xG 1.21–1.62 UK CHAMP
  • W H Ipswich Town 1–0 xG 0.9–1.34 UK CHAMP
  • W H Leicester City 2–1 xG 1.99–1.23 UK CHAMP
  • D A Queens Park Rangers 1–1 xG 0.61–0.8 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 29 matches since 2005

Derby County 1410 draws5 Preston North End

Goals 33–24 · 1.97 per match · BTTS 38% · over 2.5 28%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Derby County 52 draws3 Preston North End

Goals 7–6 · 1.3 per match · BTTS 10% · over 2.5 10%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Derby County 31 draws1 Preston North End

Goals 5–2 · 1.4 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 0%

Recent meetings

  • W Preston North End 0–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 0–1 Preston North End UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 2–0 Preston North End UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Preston North End 1–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 1–0 Preston North End neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Preston North End 0–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Preston North End 3–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 0–1 Preston North End UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Preston North End 0–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 1–0 Preston North End UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricDerby County all · 46Derby County at home · 23Preston North End all · 46Preston North End away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.501.571.301.26
W / D / L20 / 9 / 1710 / 6 / 715 / 15 / 167 / 8 / 8
Goals for / match1.461.351.201.17
Goals against / match1.281.171.351.39
Clean sheets26%30%20%17%
Failed to score9%4%26%26%
Both teams scored65%65%59%61%
Over 2.552%39%48%48%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.231.271.181.14
xG against / match1.321.111.631.83
xG difference-0.090.16-0.45-0.70
Finishing vs xG0.230.070.020.04
xPts / match1.331.471.131.01
Points vs xPts0.170.090.170.25
Game state
Scored first54%52%41%44%
PPG when scoring first2.242.332.162.00
PPG when conceding first0.620.730.680.67
Came back from behind35%46%38%33%
Leads held69%71%62%54%
Minutes leading30%29%28%30%
Minutes level46%46%45%43%
Minutes trailing24%25%27%27%
First goal (min)40453632
First goal conceded (min)40364240
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half52%55%51%41%
Goals conceded in 2nd half58%48%50%41%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.260.260.22
Late goals against0.300.260.300.26
Style
Possession44%48%46%44%
Shots11.011.910.910.6
On target3.63.73.63.8
Shot conversion13%11%11%11%
Shots inside box70%65%68%66%
Big chances created2.22.31.61.6
Corners4.55.54.53.7
xG from set plays39%44%34%33%
Goals from headers28%32%22%22%
Pressure index10.111.68.88.1
Dominant minutes39.945.740.538.6
Pass accuracy73%77%72%72%
Fouls12.311.910.410.7
Cards2.632.302.092.04

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Preston North End

0–15'1111
16–30'107
31–45'613
46–60'109
61–75'68
76–90'1214

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.297
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Preston North End · 7 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.18) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.54

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.187
Early press (0-15, level)-0.177
Late push (76+, level)+0.013
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.546

Game state

When ahead-0.162
When level+0.017
When behind-0.336
10 min after conceding-0.327
10 min after scoring+0.295

Situations

At home-0.194
Away-0.163
3 days rest or fewer-0.052
4+ days rest-0.235

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.222
v bottom-tier opponents-0.175
Evenly matched-0.154
As underdog-0.223

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.107
Conceded when ahead+0.172
Conceded late (76+)-0.027

Congested vs rested +0.18 · Ahead vs level -0.17 · Behind vs level -0.34

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-4-31 2%3.03.00.01.470.12

Preston North End

Current: winless 2 · conceding 22

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-214 30%1.51.361.361.191.42
3-1-4-29 20%1.221.111.111.221.23
5-3-27 15%0.710.861.710.971.94
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.01.21.231.86
4-4-25 11%1.81.41.61.441.99

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.1h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.3Home 41% P 41%3.1Draw 30% P 30%3.2Away 29% P 29%

Double Chance

1.36Derby or Draw 35% P 36%1.36Derby or Preston 35% P 35%1.57Draw or Preston 30% P 29%

Draw No Bet

1.611 58%2.22 42%

Both Teams To Score

2.1Yes 44% P 45%1.66No 56% P 55%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.62Over 36% P 37%1.5Under 64% P 63%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 33%4.7512 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.9Over 49%1.8Under 51%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 27.5–30% · 815 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home41%41%42%+0.5
Draw30%30%27%-2.4
Away29%29%31%+1.9

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 43%

Both teams to score · yes 42.5–45% · 1,287 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes45%44%48%+4.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 35–37.5% · 819 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.537%36%41%+4.2

Lewis Smith

Career
75 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match
3.67 (3.57 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
20.8 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.21
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 51 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.94.05-0.2841
Fouls / match20.821.8-1.01
Fouls per card5.65.4+0.11 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.160.17-0.3043
Time added8.27.2+1.1488
First card
34' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-08-30 30 180 18'10
2025-08-16 30 220 13'10
2025-05-25 20 350 16'9
2025-05-03 80 270 28'9
2025-04-18 10 280 45'8
2025-03-11 · Preston North End 40 210 20'10
2025-03-08 30 192 31'12
2025-02-15 40 220 22'6
2025-02-09 30 210 16'6
2025-02-01 31 220 35'8