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Championship · Matchweek 6
MillwallMillwall
1–0
FT
WatfordWatford

Momentum

– MillwallWatford –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
6

Venue

Stadium
The Den, London
Capacity
20,146
Surface
grass
Attendance
14,586

Teams

Coaches
Alex Neil · Paulo Pezzolano Suárez
Position
14 · 20
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-5-2

Referee

Joshua Smith

Weather

Conditions
sky is clear
Temperature
15.4° (feels 14.5°)
Wind
6.0
Humidity
56%

Where to watch · 209

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Millwall

WLWLD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 4 GA 7 · xG 6.38–5.23 · xPts 7.44

  • D A Charlton Athletic 1–1 xG 1.0–0.89 UK CHAMP
  • L H Wrexham 0–2 xG 2.26–0.41 UK CHAMP
  • W A Sheffield United 1–0 xG 1.03–1.34 UK CHAMP
  • L H Middlesbrough 0–3 xG 0.8–1.21 UK CHAMP
  • W A Norwich City 2–1 xG 1.28–1.38 UK CHAMP

Watford

LWDDL 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 5 GA 6 · xG 4.48–7.06 · xPts 5.14

  • L H Blackburn Rovers 0–1 xG 1.13–1.51 UK CHAMP
  • D H Southampton 2–2 xG 0.58–2.13 UK CHAMP
  • D A Swansea City 1–1 xG 0.59–1.2 UK CHAMP
  • W H Queens Park Rangers 2–1 xG 1.53–0.58 UK CHAMP
  • L A Charlton Athletic 0–1 xG 0.66–1.65 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 23 matches since 2005

Millwall 95 draws9 Watford

Goals 24–29 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 39%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Millwall 62 draws2 Watford

Goals 15–7 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Millwall 40 draws1 Watford

Goals 8–4 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Watford 0–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 1–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 1–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 2–3 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 1–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Watford 2–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 0–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 3–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 1–0 Millwall neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Millwall 0–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricMillwall all · 48Millwall at home · 24Watford all · 46Watford away · 23
Results
Matches48244623
Points per game1.751.751.240.87
W / D / L24 / 12 / 1213 / 3 / 814 / 15 / 174 / 8 / 11
Goals for / match1.331.381.151.00
Goals against / match1.061.131.411.65
Clean sheets40%46%15%9%
Failed to score21%21%30%30%
Both teams scored48%38%59%65%
Over 2.546%50%48%52%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.501.631.341.19
xG against / match1.331.151.251.34
xG difference0.180.490.10-0.15
Finishing vs xG-0.17-0.26-0.19-0.19
xPts / match1.471.631.431.30
Points vs xPts0.280.12-0.20-0.43
Game state
Scored first52%58%26%22%
PPG when scoring first2.602.572.331.80
PPG when conceding first0.790.560.840.59
Came back from behind43%27%47%35%
Leads held86%87%67%40%
Minutes leading27%34%18%10%
Minutes level56%50%49%50%
Minutes trailing17%16%34%40%
First goal (min)44374853
First goal conceded (min)43443432
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%52%58%70%
Goals conceded in 2nd half67%82%48%45%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.330.300.30
Late goals against0.350.460.280.35
Style
Possession48%50%51%51%
Shots12.913.513.812.0
On target4.24.64.43.5
Shot conversion10%10%8%8%
Shots inside box68%71%58%58%
Big chances created2.32.42.12.0
Corners5.76.24.94.4
xG from set plays33%36%27%31%
Goals from headers16%19%14%9%
Pressure index11.914.810.99.5
Dominant minutes44.449.747.041.8
Pass accuracy70%72%80%79%
Fouls12.610.911.010.8
Cards1.901.382.152.43

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Millwall

0–15'66
16–30'96
31–45'105
46–60'1112
61–75'115
76–90'1717

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Millwall · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.01) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.54

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.017
Early press (0-15, level)+0.217

Game state

When ahead+0.045
When level+0.017
When behind-0.133
10 min after conceding-0.344
10 min after scoring+0.546

Situations

Against ten men-0.122
At home+0.043
Away-0.044
3 days rest or fewer-0.322
4+ days rest+0.135

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.054
v bottom-tier opponents-0.073
Evenly matched+0.104
As underdog-0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.275
Conceded late (76+)-0.035

Congested vs rested -0.45 · Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level -0.14

Watford · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16

Millwall

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 83%1.81.41.081.541.27
4-4-24 8%1.750.750.751.480.88
4-4-1-12 4%0.51.01.51.252.23
4-1-4-11 2%1.01.01.01.11.34
4-3-1-21 2%3.02.01.01.073.62

Watford

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.9Home 49% P 48%3.4Draw 28% P 28%4.1Away 23% P 23%

Double Chance

1.22Millwall or Draw 38% P 38%1.3Millwall or Watford 36% P 36%1.83Draw or Watford 26% P 26%

Draw No Bet

1.41 66%2.752 34%

Both Teams To Score

2.0Yes 46% P 48%1.72No 54% P 52%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.2Over 43% P 42%1.66Under 57% P 58%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58%2.2Under 42%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 22.5–25% · 808 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home48%49%47%-1.9
Draw28%28%29%+1.7
Away23%24%24%+0.3

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 48%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes48%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 40–42.5% · 2,093 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.542%41%41%-0.4

Joshua Smith

Career
156 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.09 (3.95 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
22.1 · 5.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.2
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 122 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.34.05+0.4563
Fouls / match22.121.8+0.21
Fouls per card5.35.4-0.42 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.20.17+0.2667
Time added6.97.2-0.3735
First card
35' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-08-29 60 270 45'14
2025-08-23 61 180 25'12
2025-08-09 –– 20– –7
2025-03-12 61 200 45'7
2025-02-15 10 200 82'6
2025-01-31 20 191 63'9
2025-01-27 30 200 31'4
2025-01-22 70 211 13'5
2025-01-18 30 211 50'8
2025-01-11 20 182 21'3