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Championship · Matchweek 8
PortsmouthPortsmouth
2–2
FT
WatfordWatford

Momentum

– PortsmouthWatford –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
8

Venue

Stadium
Fratton Park, Portsmouth
Capacity
20,688
Surface
grass
Attendance
19,646

Teams

Coaches
John Mousinho · Paulo Pezzolano Suárez
Position
19 · 18
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-1-2

Referee

Ben Toner

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
16.8° (feels 16.1°)
Wind
2.8
Humidity
61%

Where to watch · 178

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Portsmouth

DWDLL 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 3 GA 5 · xG 5.87–5.36 · xPts 7.06

  • L A Ipswich Town 1–2 xG 0.81–1.55 UK CHAMP
  • L H Sheffield Wednesday 0–2 xG 1.93–1.01 UK CHAMP
  • D A Southampton 0–0 xG 0.81–0.89 UK CHAMP
  • W H Preston North End 1–0 xG 1.62–1.21 UK CHAMP
  • D A West Bromwich Albion 1–1 xG 0.69–0.69 UK CHAMP

Watford

DDLLW 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 5 GA 6 · xG 6.61–7.08 · xPts 6.07

  • W H Hull City 2–1 xG 3.46–1.18 UK CHAMP
  • L A Millwall 0–1 xG 0.86–1.07 UK CHAMP
  • L H Blackburn Rovers 0–1 xG 1.13–1.51 UK CHAMP
  • D H Southampton 2–2 xG 0.58–2.13 UK CHAMP
  • D A Swansea City 1–1 xG 0.59–1.2 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 10 matches since 2006

Portsmouth 42 draws4 Watford

Goals 14–17 · 3.1 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Portsmouth 42 draws4 Watford

Goals 14–17 · 3.1 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Portsmouth 22 draws1 Watford

Goals 7–5 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • D Watford 1–1 Portsmouth UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Portsmouth 2–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Portsmouth 1–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 2–1 Portsmouth UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Portsmouth 2–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 2–0 Portsmouth neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 3–0 Portsmouth neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Portsmouth 3–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 4–2 Portsmouth UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Portsmouth 2–1 Watford UK PL · Regular Season
MetricPortsmouth all · 46Portsmouth at home · 23Watford all · 46Watford away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.201.301.240.87
W / D / L14 / 13 / 198 / 6 / 914 / 15 / 174 / 8 / 11
Goals for / match1.071.091.151.00
Goals against / match1.391.001.411.65
Clean sheets22%26%15%9%
Failed to score28%30%30%30%
Both teams scored54%48%59%65%
Over 2.544%39%48%52%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.181.461.341.19
xG against / match1.241.121.251.34
xG difference-0.060.340.10-0.15
Finishing vs xG-0.11-0.37-0.19-0.19
xPts / match1.361.601.431.30
Points vs xPts-0.16-0.30-0.20-0.43
Game state
Scored first46%48%26%22%
PPG when scoring first2.192.272.331.80
PPG when conceding first0.300.360.840.59
Came back from behind27%31%47%35%
Leads held64%67%67%40%
Minutes leading18%23%18%10%
Minutes level51%51%49%50%
Minutes trailing31%27%34%40%
First goal (min)50454853
First goal conceded (min)41453432
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%56%58%70%
Goals conceded in 2nd half55%56%48%45%
Late goals for (76'+)0.280.350.300.30
Late goals against0.280.130.280.35
Style
Possession50%54%51%51%
Shots12.215.413.812.0
On target3.74.44.43.5
Shot conversion9%7%8%8%
Shots inside box65%67%58%58%
Big chances created1.61.82.12.0
Corners5.66.34.94.4
xG from set plays40%41%27%31%
Goals from headers16%20%14%9%
Pressure index11.714.810.99.5
Dominant minutes49.757.047.041.8
Pass accuracy74%74%80%79%
Fouls10.29.811.010.8
Cards1.931.742.152.43

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Portsmouth

0–15'59
16–30'512
31–45'98
46–60'814
61–75'98
76–90'1313

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Portsmouth · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.01) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.40

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.016
Early press (0-15, level)-0.056
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.403

Game state

When ahead+0.163
When level+0.056
When behind-0.153
10 min after conceding-0.104
10 min after scoring+0.024

Situations

At home-0.013
Away+0.033
4+ days rest-0.015

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.052
v bottom-tier opponents+0.044
Evenly matched-0.004

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.036
Conceded when ahead+0.013
Conceded late (76+)-0.286

Congested vs rested +0.16 · Ahead vs level +0.11 · Behind vs level -0.20

Watford · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16

Portsmouth

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-143 94%1.261.091.31.181.23
3-4-2-12 4%0.51.01.51.461.28
3-4-31 2%0.00.05.00.341.67

Watford

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.3Home 41% P 41%3.25Draw 29% P 30%3.1Away 30% P 30%

Double Chance

1.36Portsmouth or Draw 35% P 35%1.33Portsmouth or Watford 35% P 35%1.57Draw or Watford 30% P 30%

Draw No Bet

1.661 56%2.12 44%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50% P 50%1.83No 50% P 50%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 43%1.72Under 55% P 57%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 23%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.51.66Over 56% P 56%2.1Under 44% P 44%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 27.5–30% · 815 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home41%41%42%+0.5
Draw30%30%27%-2.4
Away30%29%31%+1.9

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 43%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes50%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.543%44%43%-1.2

Ben Toner

Career
64 matches · 12 seasons
Cards / match
3.77 (3.66 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
22.1 · 5.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.25
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 42 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.384.05+0.5971
Fouls / match24.721.8+2.54
Fouls per card5.65.4+0.11 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.260.17+1.1792
Time added7.97.2+0.7974
First card
34' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
41% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-09-20 40 320 39'5
2025-09-13 31 210 3'8
2025-04-18 61 301 3'5
2025-04-05 · Portsmouth 40 330 29'11
2025-03-29 70 291 34'11
2025-02-15 30 270 56'5
2025-02-08 –– 13– –8
2025-02-01 20 231 67'4
2025-01-11 –– 22– –7
2025-01-04 60 250 20'9