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Championship · Matchweek 9
WatfordWatford
2–1
FT
Oxford UnitedOXF

Momentum

– WatfordOXF –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
9

Venue

Stadium
Vicarage Road, Watford
Capacity
22,200
Surface
grass
Attendance
19,187

Teams

Coaches
Paulo Pezzolano Suárez · Gary Rowett
Position
17 · 22
Formation
3-4-1-2 · 4-4-2

Referee

Lewis Smith

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
12.0° (feels 11.0°)
Wind
9.7
Humidity
67%

Where to watch · 210

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Watford

DLLWD 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 7 · xG 7.56–6.99 · xPts 6.89

  • D A Portsmouth 2–2 xG 1.54–1.11 UK CHAMP
  • W H Hull City 2–1 xG 3.46–1.18 UK CHAMP
  • L A Millwall 0–1 xG 0.86–1.07 UK CHAMP
  • L H Blackburn Rovers 0–1 xG 1.13–1.51 UK CHAMP
  • D H Southampton 2–2 xG 0.58–2.13 UK CHAMP

Oxford United

DDWLD 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 7 GA 6 · xG 6.66–5.62 · xPts 7.47

  • D A Queens Park Rangers 0–0 xG 0.5–1.23 UK CHAMP
  • L H Sheffield United 0–1 xG 1.24–0.64 UK CHAMP
  • W A Bristol City 3–1 xG 1.86–1.22 UK CHAMP
  • D H Leicester City 2–2 xG 1.95–0.89 UK CHAMP
  • D H Coventry City 2–2 xG 1.11–1.64 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 4 matches since 2024

Watford 20 draws2 Oxford United

Goals 3–4 · 1.75 per match · BTTS 25% · over 2.5 25%

Last 10 · 4 matches

Watford 20 draws2 Oxford United

Goals 3–4 · 1.75 per match · BTTS 25% · over 2.5 25%

Last 5 · 4 matches

Watford 20 draws2 Oxford United

Goals 3–4 · 1.75 per match · BTTS 25% · over 2.5 25%

Recent meetings

  • L Oxford United 2–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 2–1 Oxford United UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Oxford United 1–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 1–0 Oxford United UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricWatford all · 46Watford at home · 23Oxford United all · 46Oxford United away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.241.611.020.78
W / D / L14 / 15 / 1710 / 7 / 611 / 14 / 214 / 6 / 13
Goals for / match1.151.300.980.91
Goals against / match1.411.171.281.39
Clean sheets15%22%17%13%
Failed to score30%30%41%44%
Both teams scored59%52%52%56%
Over 2.548%44%46%48%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.341.501.170.99
xG against / match1.251.151.431.68
xG difference0.100.34-0.25-0.70
Finishing vs xG-0.19-0.19-0.20-0.07
xPts / match1.431.571.210.95
Points vs xPts-0.200.04-0.19-0.17
Game state
Scored first26%30%39%35%
PPG when scoring first2.332.712.061.63
PPG when conceding first0.841.130.220.17
Came back from behind47%60%19%13%
Leads held67%91%58%44%
Minutes leading18%25%21%19%
Minutes level49%48%47%47%
Minutes trailing34%27%32%34%
First goal (min)48422829
First goal conceded (min)34363538
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%50%38%38%
Goals conceded in 2nd half48%52%41%41%
Late goals for (76'+)0.300.300.150.13
Late goals against0.280.220.150.26
Style
Possession51%52%40%38%
Shots13.815.711.99.8
On target4.45.43.42.6
Shot conversion8%8%8%9%
Shots inside box58%57%54%53%
Big chances created2.12.41.61.6
Corners4.95.44.03.4
xG from set plays27%23%40%33%
Goals from headers14%17%16%19%
Pressure index10.912.46.43.8
Dominant minutes47.052.233.723.1
Pass accuracy80%81%69%70%
Fouls11.011.110.811.0
Cards2.151.871.672.04

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Oxford United

0–15'1013
16–30'108
31–45'814
46–60'511
61–75'56
76–90'77

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Watford · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16

Oxford United

No pressure profile yet.

Watford

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Oxford United

Current: winless 1 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-127 59%1.070.931.191.31.37
4-4-26 13%0.831.331.51.331.73
3-4-2-14 9%1.00.751.50.781.22
5-4-14 9%1.01.01.50.841.78
4-1-4-13 6%1.331.01.00.881.11

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line -0.1h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.85Home 50% P 51%3.3Draw 28% P 27%4.33Away 21% P 22%

Double Chance

1.2Watford or Draw 39% P 39%1.33Watford or Oxford Utd 36% P 37%1.9Draw or Oxford Utd 25% P 25%

Draw No Bet

1.361 69%3.02 31%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 49% P 50%1.8No 51% P 50%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.2Over 43% P 46%1.66Under 57% P 54%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 23%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.9Over 49% P 52%1.8Under 51% P 48%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 50–52.5% · away 20–22.5% · 722 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home51%51%55%+3.6
Draw27%27%26%-1.4
Away22%21%19%-2.1

In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 51% · over 2.5 47%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes50%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.546%46%45%-1.2

Lewis Smith

Career
75 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match
3.67 (3.57 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
20.8 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.21
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 51 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.94.05-0.2841
Fouls / match20.821.8-1.01
Fouls per card5.65.4+0.11 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.160.17-0.3043
Time added8.27.2+1.1488
First card
34' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-01 40 180 17'8
2025-09-20 40 170 55'9
2025-08-30 30 180 18'10
2025-08-16 30 220 13'10
2025-05-25 20 350 16'9
2025-05-03 80 270 28'9
2025-04-18 10 280 45'8
2025-03-11 40 210 20'10
2025-03-08 30 192 31'12
2025-02-15 40 220 22'6