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Championship · Matchweek 9

Momentum

WrexhamBRC
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
9

Venue

Stadium
Racecourse Ground, Racecourse Ground
Capacity
10,771
Surface
grass
Attendance
10,669

Teams

Coaches
Phil Parkinson · Chris Davies
Position
15 · 11
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Robert Madley

Weather

Conditions
moderate rain
Temperature
11.6° (feels 11.0°)
Wind
11.8
Humidity
86%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Wrexham

WLWDD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 8 GA 7 · xG 5.8–7.04 · xPts 6.05

  • D A Leicester City 1–1 xG 0.94–0.96 UK CHAMP
  • D H Derby County 1–1 xG 0.75–0.86 UK CHAMP
  • W A Norwich City 3–2 xG 1.3–1.55 UK CHAMP
  • L H Queens Park Rangers 1–3 xG 2.4–1.41 UK CHAMP
  • W A Millwall 2–0 xG 0.41–2.26 UK CHAMP

Birmingham City

LLWLD 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 3 GA 8 · xG 6.3–5.6 · xPts 7.63

  • D H Sheffield Wednesday 2–2 xG 1.48–0.45 UK CHAMP
  • L A Coventry City 0–3 xG 0.36–2.34 UK CHAMP
  • W H Swansea City 1–0 xG 2.22–1.5 UK CHAMP
  • L A Stoke City 0–1 xG 0.78–0.86 UK CHAMP
  • L A Leicester City 0–2 xG 1.45–0.44 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 3 matches since 2025

Wrexham 01 draws2 Birmingham City

Goals 2–5 · 2.33 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 33%

Last 10 · 3 matches

Wrexham 01 draws2 Birmingham City

Goals 2–5 · 2.33 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 33%

Last 5 · 3 matches

Wrexham 01 draws2 Birmingham City

Goals 2–5 · 2.33 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 33%

Recent meetings

  • L Wrexham 1–2 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Birmingham City 2–0 Wrexham UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Wrexham 1–1 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricWrexham all · 46Wrexham at home · 23Birmingham City all · 46Birmingham City away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.541.611.390.87
W / D / L19 / 14 / 1310 / 7 / 617 / 13 / 165 / 5 / 13
Goals for / match1.501.781.240.78
Goals against / match1.411.611.221.48
Clean sheets26%22%22%13%
Failed to score13%4%24%39%
Both teams scored65%74%56%48%
Over 2.550%56%46%44%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.221.541.491.07
xG against / match1.481.281.141.27
xG difference-0.260.260.35-0.21
Finishing vs xG0.280.24-0.25-0.28
xPts / match1.221.541.571.23
Points vs xPts0.320.07-0.18-0.36
Game state
Scored first52%56%50%22%
PPG when scoring first2.082.232.352.40
PPG when conceding first0.950.800.410.44
Came back from behind46%50%33%32%
Leads held63%62%71%83%
Minutes leading31%30%28%11%
Minutes level46%43%42%38%
Minutes trailing23%26%31%51%
First goal (min)37383952
First goal conceded (min)40373527
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%49%49%61%
Goals conceded in 2nd half55%51%39%32%
Late goals for (76'+)0.370.480.240.30
Late goals against0.410.350.150.13
Style
Possession48%51%54%52%
Shots11.314.113.69.9
On target3.84.84.12.6
Shot conversion13%13%9%8%
Shots inside box66%68%64%67%
Big chances created2.32.82.41.8
Corners4.55.25.85.0
xG from set plays32%36%30%33%
Goals from headers29%38%21%17%
Pressure index10.113.114.410.4
Dominant minutes41.951.354.344.6
Pass accuracy78%80%77%77%
Fouls9.78.811.712.3
Cards1.591.262.112.22

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Wrexham

0–15'98
16–30'119
31–45'1212
46–60'138
61–75'79
76–90'1719

Birmingham City

0–15'1010
16–30'1112
31–45'812
46–60'98
61–75'87
76–90'117

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Wrexham · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.02) · stands out: v bottom-tier opponents +0.16

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.027
Early press (0-15, level)-0.137
Late push (76+, level)-0.044

Game state

When ahead+0.122
When level+0.017
When behind-0.034
10 min after conceding-0.135
10 min after scoring+0.135

Situations

At home+0.053
Away+0.004
3 days rest or fewer+0.073
4+ days rest-0.014

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.103
v bottom-tier opponents+0.163
As favourite+0.053
Evenly matched+0.033

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.087
Conceded when ahead+0.062
Conceded late (76+)-0.165

Congested vs rested +0.07 · Ahead vs level +0.12 · Behind vs level -0.04

Birmingham City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.12) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.127
Early press (0-15, level)+0.137
Late push (76+, level)-0.194
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.552

Game state

When ahead+0.152
When level+0.247
When behind-0.295
10 min after conceding-0.366
10 min after scoring+0.296

Situations

At home-0.063
Away+0.274
3 days rest or fewer+0.362
4+ days rest+0.035

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.155
v bottom-tier opponents+0.072
Evenly matched+0.093
As underdog+0.263

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.122
Conceded late (76+)-0.207

Congested vs rested +0.33 · Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level -0.53

Wrexham

Current: winless 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-123 50%1.611.571.391.171.25
3-5-28 17%0.50.881.880.962.43
3-5-1-16 13%1.51.171.51.641.12
3-4-1-23 6%1.671.331.01.341.59
3-1-4-23 6%2.332.00.670.91.43

Birmingham City

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 6 · conceding 6

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 87%1.381.331.281.541.16
4-4-1-12 4%1.51.01.51.730.5
4-4-22 4%1.50.50.51.160.61
4-1-4-11 2%3.01.00.00.831.5
3-4-31 2%0.00.01.00.251.91

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.8Home 34% P 34%3.3Draw 29% P 30%2.55Away 37% P 37%

Double Chance

1.5Wrexham or Draw 31% P 32%1.33Wrexham or Birmingham 35% P 35%1.4Draw or Birmingham 33% P 33%

Draw No Bet

1.91 49%1.82 51%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50% P 51%1.83No 50% P 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.2Over 43% P 43%1.66Under 57% P 57%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.16 - 8 28%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58% P 56%2.2Under 42% P 44%
4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 35–37.5% · 691 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home34%34%34%+0.5
Draw30%30%27%-2.5
Away37%36%38%+2.0

In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 45%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes51%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.543%44%43%-1.2

Robert Madley

Career
227 matches · 17 seasons
Cards / match
3.67 (3.49 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
17.7 · 4.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.24
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 63 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.684.05+1.1494
Fouls / match21.421.8-0.39
Fouls per card4.75.4-1.33 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.170.17-0.0551
Time added8.37.2+1.2692
First card
37' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 27% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-09-27 50 190 30'7
2025-09-13 41 300 54'8
2025-08-17 40 270 41'12
2025-08-09 60 180 57'9
2025-04-21 70 241 13'11
2025-04-08 20 220 33'9
2025-03-29 70 271 13'8
2025-03-15 51 190 51'9
2025-01-13 10 140 15'4
2025-01-01 50 260 42'7