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Championship · Matchweek 11
WatfordWatford
2–1
FT
West Bromwich AlbionWBA

Momentum

– WatfordWBA –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
11

Venue

Stadium
Vicarage Road, Watford
Capacity
22,200
Surface
grass
Attendance
17,308

Teams

Coaches
Javier Gracia Carlos · Ryan Mason
Position
16 · 9
Formation
4-4-2 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Leigh Doughty

Weather

Conditions
moderate rain
Temperature
12.6° (feels 11.7°)
Wind
8.6
Humidity
69%

Where to watch · 179

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Watford

LWDWL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 6 · xG 10.95–6.8 · xPts 8.7

  • L A Sheffield United 0–1 xG 1.08–2.12 UK CHAMP
  • W H Oxford United 2–1 xG 4.01–1.32 UK CHAMP
  • D A Portsmouth 2–2 xG 1.54–1.11 UK CHAMP
  • W H Hull City 2–1 xG 3.46–1.18 UK CHAMP
  • L A Millwall 0–1 xG 0.86–1.07 UK CHAMP

West Bromwich Albion

LDWLW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 7 · xG 6.41–6.16 · xPts 6.96

  • W H Preston North End 2–1 xG 2.03–1.05 UK CHAMP
  • L A Millwall 0–3 xG 0.66–1.29 UK CHAMP
  • W A Norwich City 1–0 xG 1.0–1.91 UK CHAMP
  • D H Leicester City 1–1 xG 1.72–0.99 UK CHAMP
  • L A Middlesbrough 1–2 xG 1.0–0.93 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 19 matches since 2007

Watford 67 draws6 West Bromwich Albion

Goals 22–30 · 2.74 per match · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 58%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Watford 43 draws3 West Bromwich Albion

Goals 14–15 · 2.9 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Watford 20 draws3 West Bromwich Albion

Goals 5–8 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • L West Bromwich Albion 1–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L West Bromwich Albion 3–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 2–1 West Bromwich Albion UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L West Bromwich Albion 2–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 2–1 West Bromwich Albion UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D West Bromwich Albion 2–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Watford 2–2 West Bromwich Albion UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 3–2 West Bromwich Albion UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D West Bromwich Albion 1–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 1–0 West Bromwich Albion neutral UK PL · Regular Season
MetricWatford all · 46Watford at home · 23West Bromwich Albion all · 46West Bromwich Albion away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.241.611.150.83
W / D / L14 / 15 / 1710 / 7 / 613 / 14 / 195 / 4 / 14
Goals for / match1.151.301.040.87
Goals against / match1.411.171.261.43
Clean sheets15%22%30%26%
Failed to score30%30%33%35%
Both teams scored59%52%50%48%
Over 2.548%44%46%48%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.341.501.441.21
xG against / match1.251.151.051.32
xG difference0.100.340.39-0.11
Finishing vs xG-0.19-0.19-0.40-0.34
xPts / match1.431.571.621.29
Points vs xPts-0.200.04-0.47-0.47
Game state
Scored first26%30%41%30%
PPG when scoring first2.332.712.052.14
PPG when conceding first0.841.130.380.14
Came back from behind47%60%17%12%
Leads held67%91%62%71%
Minutes leading18%25%25%18%
Minutes level49%48%50%49%
Minutes trailing34%27%25%33%
First goal (min)48424246
First goal conceded (min)34364541
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%50%52%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half48%52%53%46%
Late goals for (76'+)0.300.300.260.35
Late goals against0.280.220.260.22
Style
Possession51%52%52%50%
Shots13.815.713.411.7
On target4.45.44.13.5
Shot conversion8%8%8%7%
Shots inside box58%57%65%67%
Big chances created2.12.42.11.9
Corners4.95.45.24.2
xG from set plays27%23%36%30%
Goals from headers14%17%26%30%
Pressure index10.912.413.410.4
Dominant minutes47.052.252.948.6
Pass accuracy80%81%80%79%
Fouls11.011.110.210.4
Cards2.151.871.832.04

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

West Bromwich Albion

0–15'66
16–30'89
31–45'912
46–60'511
61–75'88
76–90'1212

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Watford · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16

West Bromwich Albion · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.14) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.38

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.147
Early press (0-15, level)+0.027
Late push (76+, level)-0.292

Game state

When ahead+0.085
When level+0.197
When behind-0.033
10 min after conceding-0.105
10 min after scoring+0.387

Situations

At home+0.274
Away-0.043
3 days rest or fewer+0.052
4+ days rest+0.175

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.003
v bottom-tier opponents+0.234
As favourite+0.224
As underdog-0.072

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.047
Conceded when ahead-0.165
Conceded late (76+)-0.257

Congested vs rested -0.11 · Ahead vs level -0.11 · Behind vs level -0.22

Watford

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

West Bromwich Albion

Current: unbeaten 4 · winless 1 · scoring 8 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.251.171.291.480.98
4-4-217 37%1.291.00.821.521.08
3-4-2-13 6%0.00.03.00.861.62
5-4-12 4%0.51.52.01.180.75

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.7Home 35% P 34%3.2Draw 29% P 31%2.6Away 36% P 35%

Double Chance

1.5Watford or Draw 32% P 32%1.36Watford or West Brom 35% P 35%1.44Draw or West Brom 33% P 33%

Draw No Bet

1.831 50%1.832 50%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 49% P 49%1.8No 51% P 51%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.3Over 41% P 41%1.61Under 59% P 59%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50%1.83Under 50%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 35–37.5% · 691 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home34%34%34%+0.5
Draw31%30%27%-2.5
Away35%36%38%+2.0

In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 45%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes49%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 40–42.5% · 2,093 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.541%41%41%-0.4

Leigh Doughty

Career
119 matches · 9 seasons
Cards / match
4.44 (4.29 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
22.4 · 4.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.22
Cards to home side
50%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 94 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.514.05+0.8378
Fouls / match22.121.8+0.18
Fouls per card5.05.4-0.89 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.220.17+0.6280
Time added6.97.2-0.3735
First card
35' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 30% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-09-30 50 280 36'7
2025-08-30 90 282 35'16
2025-08-23 31 250 48'11
2025-04-26 30 210 37'9
2025-04-12 30 220 7'2
2025-03-01 31 260 22'9
2025-01-01 30 200 14'7
2024-12-21 101 290 39'8
2024-12-11 · Watford 50 220 36'5
2024-11-26 20 150 33'5