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Championship · Matchweek 12
Derby CountyDerby County
1–0
FT
Queens Park RangersQPR

Momentum

– Derby CountyQPR –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
12

Venue

Stadium
Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Capacity
33,597
Surface
grass
Attendance
28,931

Teams

Coaches
John Eustace · Julien Stéphan
Position
19 · 9
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Elliot Bell

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
10.2° (feels 9.2°)
Wind
8.0
Humidity
71%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Derby County

DDDLW 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 4 GA 4 · xG 5.65–5.8 · xPts 6.79

  • W H Norwich City 1–0 xG 1.25–1.37 UK CHAMP
  • L A Oxford United 0–1 xG 0.32–1.94 UK CHAMP
  • D H Southampton 1–1 xG 1.31–1.02 UK CHAMP
  • D H Charlton Athletic 1–1 xG 1.9–0.72 UK CHAMP
  • D A Wrexham 1–1 xG 0.86–0.75 UK CHAMP

Queens Park Rangers

DDWLW 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 5 GA 4 · xG 8.5–5.1 · xPts 9.11

  • W A Swansea City 1–0 xG 1.74–0.5 UK CHAMP
  • L H Millwall 1–2 xG 2.1–1.52 UK CHAMP
  • W A Bristol City 2–1 xG 0.91–1.65 UK CHAMP
  • D H Oxford United 0–0 xG 1.23–0.5 UK CHAMP
  • D A Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 xG 2.53–0.92 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 31 matches since 2005

Derby County 128 draws11 Queens Park Rangers

Goals 33–34 · 2.16 per match · BTTS 45% · over 2.5 29%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Derby County 41 draws5 Queens Park Rangers

Goals 10–13 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Derby County 30 draws2 Queens Park Rangers

Goals 6–7 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Queens Park Rangers 2–3 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 1–0 Queens Park Rangers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Queens Park Rangers 4–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 2–0 Queens Park Rangers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Queens Park Rangers 1–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 1–2 Queens Park Rangers neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Queens Park Rangers 0–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 0–1 Queens Park Rangers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Queens Park Rangers 2–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 1–1 Queens Park Rangers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricDerby County all · 46Derby County at home · 23Queens Park Rangers all · 46Queens Park Rangers away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.501.571.261.09
W / D / L20 / 9 / 1710 / 6 / 716 / 10 / 206 / 7 / 10
Goals for / match1.461.351.330.91
Goals against / match1.281.171.591.57
Clean sheets26%30%22%26%
Failed to score9%4%28%39%
Both teams scored65%65%63%52%
Over 2.552%39%63%48%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.231.271.300.98
xG against / match1.321.111.331.45
xG difference-0.090.16-0.03-0.47
Finishing vs xG0.230.070.02-0.07
xPts / match1.331.471.371.07
Points vs xPts0.170.09-0.110.02
Game state
Scored first54%52%33%17%
PPG when scoring first2.242.332.473.00
PPG when conceding first0.620.730.600.60
Came back from behind35%46%26%33%
Leads held69%71%84%100%
Minutes leading30%29%20%10%
Minutes level46%46%46%48%
Minutes trailing24%25%34%42%
First goal (min)40454550
First goal conceded (min)40363423
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half52%55%57%62%
Goals conceded in 2nd half58%48%48%28%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.260.390.26
Late goals against0.300.260.260.04
Style
Possession44%48%46%45%
Shots11.011.912.711.1
On target3.63.74.13.2
Shot conversion13%11%10%8%
Shots inside box70%65%63%63%
Big chances created2.22.31.81.2
Corners4.55.54.84.3
xG from set plays39%44%31%34%
Goals from headers28%32%17%20%
Pressure index10.111.611.77.9
Dominant minutes39.945.746.738.9
Pass accuracy73%77%76%76%
Fouls12.311.911.010.8
Cards2.632.301.911.70

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Queens Park Rangers

0–15'712
16–30'711
31–45'1215
46–60'716
61–75'107
76–90'1812

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.297
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Queens Park Rangers · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.29) · stands out: as favourite +0.67

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.297
Early press (0-15, level)+0.047
Late push (76+, level)-0.093

Game state

When ahead+0.414
When level+0.367
When behind-0.233
10 min after conceding-0.325
10 min after scoring+0.394

Situations

At home+0.203
Away+0.354
3 days rest or fewer-0.172
4+ days rest+0.475

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.172
v bottom-tier opponents+0.475
As favourite+0.673
Evenly matched+0.083

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.077
Conceded when ahead-0.324
Conceded late (76+)-0.397

Congested vs rested -0.65 · Ahead vs level +0.04 · Behind vs level -0.59

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-5-21 2%0.01.02.00.841.63

Queens Park Rangers

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-223 50%1.131.391.71.281.42
4-2-3-123 50%1.391.261.481.321.24

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.8Home 33% P 34%3.2Draw 29% P 29%2.5Away 37% P 37%

Double Chance

1.5Derby or Draw 32% P 31%1.36Derby or QPR 35% P 36%1.4Draw or QPR 34% P 33%

Draw No Bet

2.01 46%1.722 54%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50% P 52%1.83No 50% P 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.2Over 43% P 45%1.66Under 57% P 55%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.66 - 8 24%2.629 - 11 33%3.7512 - 14 23%7.0Over 14 12%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54% P 58%2.0Under 46% P 42%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 35–37.5% · 691 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home34%34%34%+0.5
Draw29%30%27%-2.5
Away37%36%38%+2.0

In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 45%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.545%44%43%-1.2

Elliot Bell

Career
25 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
4.6 (4.48 yellow · 0.04 red)
Fouls / match
24.2 · 5.0 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.04
Cards to home side
55%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 20 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.64.05+0.9986
Fouls / match22.421.8+0.44
Fouls per card4.95.4-1.02 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.050.17-1.792
Time added8.37.2+1.2692
First card
39' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 38% in last 15'
Cards to home side
56% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-22 41 240 37'8
2025-09-30 40 160 25'6
2025-09-27 30 200 74'6
2025-08-23 70 260 7'7
2025-08-09 · Derby County 30 260 38'10
2025-04-26 100 260 16'12
2025-04-21 40 190 61'8
2025-04-09 · Queens Park Rangers 50 250 64'2
2025-02-22 · Derby County 20 181 44'12
2025-02-12 20 220 89'5