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Championship · Matchweek 13
WatfordWatford
3–0
FT
MiddlesbroughMID

Momentum

– WatfordMID –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
13

Venue

Stadium
Vicarage Road, Watford
Capacity
22,200
Surface
grass
Attendance
19,278

Teams

Coaches
Javier Gracia Carlos · Rob Edwards
Position
15 · 2
Formation
4-4-2 · 3-4-1-2

Referee

John Busby

Weather

Conditions
heavy intensity rain
Temperature
13.9° (feels 13.2°)
Wind
9.0
Humidity
69%

Where to watch · 178

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Watford

DWLWL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 8 · xG 9.95–7.03 · xPts 8.27

  • L A Coventry City 1–3 xG 2.29–1.56 UK CHAMP
  • W H West Bromwich Albion 2–1 xG 1.02–0.92 UK CHAMP
  • L A Sheffield United 0–1 xG 1.08–2.12 UK CHAMP
  • W H Oxford United 2–1 xG 4.01–1.32 UK CHAMP
  • D A Portsmouth 2–2 xG 1.54–1.11 UK CHAMP

Middlesbrough

DLWWD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 4 GA 3 · xG 6.47–5.92 · xPts 7.4

  • D H Wrexham 1–1 xG 0.93–0.52 UK CHAMP
  • W A Sheffield Wednesday 1–0 xG 1.79–1.13 UK CHAMP
  • W H Ipswich Town 2–1 xG 1.69–2.35 UK CHAMP
  • L A Portsmouth 0–1 xG 1.02–0.51 UK CHAMP
  • D H Stoke City 0–0 xG 1.04–1.42 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 26 matches since 2006

Watford 135 draws8 Middlesbrough

Goals 35–32 · 2.58 per match · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Watford 51 draws4 Middlesbrough

Goals 14–16 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Watford 30 draws2 Middlesbrough

Goals 8–9 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • L Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 3–0 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Middlesbrough 0–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 2–1 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Middlesbrough 3–1 Watford neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 2–3 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Middlesbrough 2–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 2–1 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Middlesbrough 1–1 Watford neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 1–0 Middlesbrough neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricWatford all · 46Watford at home · 23Middlesbrough all · 49Middlesbrough away · 25
Results
Matches46234925
Points per game1.241.611.651.52
W / D / L14 / 15 / 1710 / 7 / 622 / 15 / 1210 / 8 / 7
Goals for / match1.151.301.491.56
Goals against / match1.411.171.021.28
Clean sheets15%22%29%16%
Failed to score30%30%26%24%
Both teams scored59%52%55%64%
Over 2.548%44%53%64%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.341.501.591.55
xG against / match1.251.151.051.15
xG difference0.100.340.530.40
Finishing vs xG-0.19-0.19-0.100.01
xPts / match1.431.571.701.60
Points vs xPts-0.200.04-0.04-0.08
Game state
Scored first26%30%53%52%
PPG when scoring first2.332.712.462.31
PPG when conceding first0.841.130.670.64
Came back from behind47%60%46%50%
Leads held67%91%79%71%
Minutes leading18%25%32%31%
Minutes level49%48%49%47%
Minutes trailing34%27%19%22%
First goal (min)48423736
First goal conceded (min)34364645
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%50%51%49%
Goals conceded in 2nd half48%52%55%52%
Late goals for (76'+)0.300.300.220.28
Late goals against0.280.220.290.28
Style
Possession51%52%59%58%
Shots13.815.716.215.3
On target4.45.44.84.5
Shot conversion8%8%9%10%
Shots inside box58%57%64%65%
Big chances created2.12.42.42.5
Corners4.95.46.85.8
xG from set plays27%23%24%18%
Goals from headers14%17%12%10%
Pressure index10.912.419.718.4
Dominant minutes47.052.263.163.2
Pass accuracy80%81%84%84%
Fouls11.011.19.39.5
Cards2.151.871.612.12

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Middlesbrough

0–15'97
16–30'1010
31–45'175
46–60'136
61–75'138
76–90'1113

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Watford · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16

Middlesbrough · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.38) · stands out: when behind +1.00

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.387
Early press (0-15, level)+0.477
Late push (76+, level)+0.294

Game state

When ahead+0.196
When level+0.237
When behind+1.004
10 min after conceding+0.276
10 min after scoring+0.697

Situations

At home+0.464
Away+0.263
3 days rest or fewer+0.822
4+ days rest+0.205

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.415
v bottom-tier opponents+0.282
As favourite+0.435
Evenly matched+0.262

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.137
Conceded when ahead-0.116
Conceded late (76+)-0.417

Congested vs rested +0.62 · Ahead vs level -0.04 · Behind vs level +0.77

Watford

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Middlesbrough

Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-114 29%1.431.140.931.521.11
4-2-3-111 22%2.452.00.731.541.13
4-2-2-28 16%0.750.630.881.921.08
4-4-25 10%2.42.41.61.131.07
4-3-33 6%2.331.670.01.250.75

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.55Home 37% P 35%3.4Draw 28% P 29%2.62Away 36% P 36%

Double Chance

1.5Watford or Draw 32% P 32%1.3Watford or Middlesbrough 37% P 35%1.5Draw or Middlesbrough 32% P 32%

Draw No Bet

1.831 50%1.832 50%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 51% P 53%1.9No 49% P 47%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 46%1.8Under 53% P 54%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54% P 57%2.0Under 46% P 43%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 35–37.5% · 584 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home35%36%35%-0.6
Draw29%28%28%+0.2
Away36%36%36%+0.4

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 53%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes53%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.546%46%45%-1.2

John Busby

Career
130 matches · 13 seasons
Cards / match
3.9 (3.82 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
20.7 · 5.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.15
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 113 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.874.05-0.3335
Fouls / match20.921.8-0.89
Fouls per card5.55.4-0.15 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.150.17-0.4029
Time added7.87.2+0.6871
First card
37' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 33% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-22 51 170 29'7
2025-09-30 60 251 45'11
2025-09-20 90 240 12'14
2025-08-23 70 270 41'6
2025-08-16 20 120 27'7
2025-05-09 40 220 21'7
2025-05-03 20 250 13'12
2025-04-21 30 230 22'6
2025-04-12 30 110 45'3
2025-04-04 · Middlesbrough 20 250 23'8