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Championship · Matchweek 14
Derby CountyDerby County
2–1
FT
Hull CityHull City

Momentum

– Derby CountyHull City –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
14

Venue

Stadium
Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Capacity
33,597
Surface
grass
Attendance
26,391

Teams

Coaches
John Eustace · Sergej Jakirović
Position
17 · 7
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Stephen Martin

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
14.5° (feels 14.0°)
Wind
9.5
Humidity
77%

Where to watch · 178

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Derby County

DLWWW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 3 · xG 6.36–6.68 · xPts 6.83

  • W A Sheffield United 3–1 xG 1.87–2.06 UK CHAMP
  • W H Queens Park Rangers 1–0 xG 1.6–0.29 UK CHAMP
  • W H Norwich City 1–0 xG 1.25–1.37 UK CHAMP
  • L A Oxford United 0–1 xG 0.32–1.94 UK CHAMP
  • D H Southampton 1–1 xG 1.31–1.02 UK CHAMP

Hull City

WWWDW 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 9 GA 4 · xG 6.44–11.64 · xPts 4.17

  • W A Norwich City 2–0 xG 1.83–2.28 UK CHAMP
  • D H Charlton Athletic 1–1 xG 1.18–1.63 UK CHAMP
  • W H Leicester City 2–1 xG 1.34–2.07 UK CHAMP
  • W A Birmingham City 3–2 xG 1.45–2.75 UK CHAMP
  • W H Sheffield United 1–0 xG 0.64–2.91 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 26 matches since 2005

Derby County 134 draws9 Hull City

Goals 37–28 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 42% · over 2.5 46%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Derby County 71 draws2 Hull City

Goals 15–10 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Derby County 31 draws1 Hull City

Goals 9–7 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Hull City 4–2 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 2–1 Hull City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Hull City 0–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 1–1 Hull City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 3–1 Hull City neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Hull City 0–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 1–0 Hull City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Hull City 2–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 2–0 Hull City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Hull City 1–2 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricDerby County all · 46Derby County at home · 23Hull City all · 49Hull City away · 24
Results
Matches46234924
Points per game1.501.571.631.58
W / D / L20 / 9 / 1710 / 6 / 723 / 11 / 1511 / 5 / 8
Goals for / match1.461.351.491.54
Goals against / match1.281.171.351.33
Clean sheets26%30%29%29%
Failed to score9%4%18%12%
Both teams scored65%65%61%62%
Over 2.552%39%61%67%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.231.271.371.27
xG against / match1.321.111.661.91
xG difference-0.090.16-0.29-0.63
Finishing vs xG0.230.070.120.27
xPts / match1.331.471.251.09
Points vs xPts0.170.090.380.49
Game state
Scored first54%52%57%67%
PPG when scoring first2.242.332.182.00
PPG when conceding first0.620.730.880.71
Came back from behind35%46%35%33%
Leads held69%71%72%65%
Minutes leading30%29%30%32%
Minutes level46%46%53%52%
Minutes trailing24%25%17%16%
First goal (min)40453233
First goal conceded (min)40364044
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half52%55%45%49%
Goals conceded in 2nd half58%48%52%62%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.260.270.33
Late goals against0.300.260.310.38
Style
Possession44%48%45%43%
Shots11.011.911.111.0
On target3.63.74.14.3
Shot conversion13%11%13%14%
Shots inside box70%65%68%68%
Big chances created2.22.32.22.3
Corners4.55.54.44.6
xG from set plays39%44%21%13%
Goals from headers28%32%14%19%
Pressure index10.111.69.37.6
Dominant minutes39.945.739.832.6
Pass accuracy73%77%72%71%
Fouls12.311.911.211.5
Cards2.632.302.553.04

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Hull City

0–15'117
16–30'1413
31–45'1512
46–60'910
61–75'119
76–90'1315

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.297
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Hull City · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.42) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.57

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.424
Early press (0-15, level)-0.574
Late push (76+, level)-0.503

Game state

When ahead-0.363
When level-0.444
10 min after scoring+0.133

Situations

At home-0.452
Away-0.392
4+ days rest-0.424

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.393
As underdog-0.424

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.364
Conceded when ahead+0.583
Conceded late (76+)+0.274

Ahead vs level +0.08 · Behind vs level -0.08

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-4-31 2%3.03.00.01.470.12

Hull City

Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 2 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-136 74%1.641.611.441.491.76
3-4-2-16 12%1.51.01.171.091.37
3-4-1-22 4%0.51.52.01.251.52
4-4-22 4%3.01.50.51.091.08
3-5-21 2%3.01.00.00.521.73

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.1Home 44% P 45%3.3Draw 28% P 28%3.4Away 27% P 27%

Double Chance

1.28Derby or Draw 37% P 37%1.33Derby or Hull 35% P 36%1.7Draw or Hull 28% P 28%

Draw No Bet

1.51 62%2.52 38%

Both Teams To Score

1.72Yes 54% P 53%2.0No 46% P 47%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 46%1.8Under 53% P 54%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58%2.2Under 42%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 42.5–45% · away 25–27.5% · 725 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home45%44%44%-0.2
Draw28%30%28%-1.4
Away27%26%28%+1.6

In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 45%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes53%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.546%46%45%-1.2

Stephen Martin

Career
78 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
4.68 (4.58 yellow · 0.04 red)
Fouls / match
22.9 · 4.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.12
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 72 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.64.05+0.9986
Fouls / match23.021.8+1.06
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.59 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.110.17-0.9412
Time added7.77.2+0.5667
First card
35' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
43% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-25 50 250 32'9
2025-09-26 70 290 47'6
2025-08-23 80 280 39'13
2025-08-16 60 211 25'12
2025-08-09 30 220 25'9
2025-05-03 10 270 65'5
2025-04-26 · Derby County · Hull City 30 260 25'10
2025-04-18 40 300 2'12
2025-04-09 20 230 21'2
2025-04-02 · Derby County 30 210 15'8