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Championship · Matchweek 14
Oxford UnitedOXF
0–3
FT
Stoke CityStoke City

Momentum

– OXFStoke City –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
14

Venue

Stadium
The Kassam Stadium, Oxford
Capacity
12,500
Surface
grass
Attendance
10,362

Teams

Coaches
Gary Rowett · Mark Robins
Position
18 · 3
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Leigh Doughty

Weather

Conditions
moderate rain
Temperature
13.8° (feels 13.3°)
Wind
8.6
Humidity
81%

Where to watch · 178

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Oxford United

LWLWD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 6 · xG 5.18–8.97 · xPts 4.92

  • D H Millwall 2–2 xG 0.57–2.25 UK CHAMP
  • W A Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 xG 1.21–1.65 UK CHAMP
  • L A Wrexham 0–1 xG 0.14–0.75 UK CHAMP
  • W H Derby County 1–0 xG 1.94–0.32 UK CHAMP
  • L A Watford 1–2 xG 1.32–4.01 UK CHAMP

Stoke City

DWLWW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 8 GA 4 · xG 6.15–6.8 · xPts 6.59

  • W H Bristol City 5–1 xG 2.04–1.1 UK CHAMP
  • W A Portsmouth 1–0 xG 0.96–1.65 UK CHAMP
  • L A Millwall 0–2 xG 0.87–1.89 UK CHAMP
  • W H Wrexham 1–0 xG 0.99–0.25 UK CHAMP
  • D A Blackburn Rovers 1–1 xG 1.29–1.91 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 4 matches since 2024

Oxford United 11 draws2 Stoke City

Goals 2–5 · 1.75 per match · BTTS 25% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 4 matches

Oxford United 11 draws2 Stoke City

Goals 2–5 · 1.75 per match · BTTS 25% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 4 matches

Oxford United 11 draws2 Stoke City

Goals 2–5 · 1.75 per match · BTTS 25% · over 2.5 50%

Recent meetings

  • L Stoke City 2–1 Oxford United UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Oxford United 0–3 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Stoke City 0–0 Oxford United UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Oxford United 1–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricOxford United all · 46Oxford United at home · 23Stoke City all · 46Stoke City away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.021.261.200.96
W / D / L11 / 14 / 217 / 8 / 815 / 10 / 216 / 4 / 13
Goals for / match0.981.041.110.74
Goals against / match1.281.171.221.22
Clean sheets17%22%28%30%
Failed to score41%39%37%52%
Both teams scored52%48%44%26%
Over 2.546%44%44%30%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.171.361.241.03
xG against / match1.431.171.431.67
xG difference-0.250.19-0.19-0.63
Finishing vs xG-0.20-0.32-0.13-0.30
xPts / match1.211.481.281.01
Points vs xPts-0.19-0.22-0.08-0.05
Game state
Scored first39%44%44%35%
PPG when scoring first2.062.402.252.38
PPG when conceding first0.220.270.270.08
Came back from behind19%27%22%7%
Leads held58%70%71%75%
Minutes leading21%23%24%16%
Minutes level47%47%50%51%
Minutes trailing32%30%27%32%
First goal (min)28263742
First goal conceded (min)35334440
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half38%38%55%65%
Goals conceded in 2nd half41%41%62%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.150.170.150.04
Late goals against0.150.040.350.35
Style
Possession40%42%52%51%
Shots11.914.111.29.8
On target3.44.23.82.8
Shot conversion8%7%10%8%
Shots inside box54%55%65%62%
Big chances created1.61.71.81.4
Corners4.04.66.05.6
xG from set plays40%46%28%19%
Goals from headers16%12%16%19%
Pressure index6.49.113.310.2
Dominant minutes33.744.252.748.2
Pass accuracy69%69%78%78%
Fouls10.810.510.410.2
Cards1.671.302.302.35

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Oxford United

0–15'1013
16–30'108
31–45'814
46–60'511
61–75'56
76–90'77

Stoke City

0–15'88
16–30'55
31–45'108
46–60'1314
61–75'85
76–90'716

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Oxford United

No pressure profile yet.

Stoke City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.80

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.107
Early press (0-15, level)+0.177
Late push (76+, level)-0.442
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.453

Game state

When ahead+0.166
When level+0.057
When behind+0.113
10 min after conceding-0.265
10 min after scoring+0.807

Situations

At home-0.273
Away+0.314
3 days rest or fewer-0.222
4+ days rest+0.255

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.154
v bottom-tier opponents+0.543
Evenly matched+0.362
As underdog-0.074

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.016
Conceded late (76+)+0.326

Congested vs rested -0.47 · Ahead vs level +0.10 · Behind vs level +0.05

Oxford United

Current: winless 1 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-127 59%1.070.931.191.31.37
4-4-26 13%0.831.331.51.331.73
5-4-14 9%1.01.01.50.841.78
3-4-2-14 9%1.00.751.50.781.22
4-1-4-13 6%1.331.01.00.881.11

Stoke City

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-141 89%1.241.11.151.21.34
3-4-2-13 6%1.331.331.331.762.14
4-4-22 4%0.01.02.51.292.17

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.2Home 30% P 31%3.25Draw 29% P 29%2.3Away 41% P 40%

Double Chance

1.57Oxford Utd or Draw 30% P 30%1.33Oxford Utd or Stoke 35% P 36%1.36Draw or Stoke 35% P 34%

Draw No Bet

2.21 42%1.612 58%

Both Teams To Score

1.72Yes 54% P 54%2.0No 46% P 46%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 47%1.8Under 53% P 53%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 30–32.5% · away 40–42.5% · 560 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home31%31%31%-0.2
Draw29%28%24%-4.2
Away40%41%46%+4.4

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 54%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes54%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.547%46%45%-1.2

Leigh Doughty

Career
119 matches · 9 seasons
Cards / match
4.44 (4.29 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
22.4 · 4.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.22
Cards to home side
50%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 94 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.514.05+0.8378
Fouls / match22.121.8+0.18
Fouls per card5.05.4-0.89 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.220.17+0.6280
Time added6.97.2-0.3735
First card
35' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 30% in last 15'
Cards to home side
50% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-22 20 200 42'8
2025-09-30 50 280 36'7
2025-08-30 90 282 35'16
2025-08-23 31 250 48'11
2025-04-26 30 210 37'9
2025-04-12 30 220 7'2
2025-03-01 31 260 22'9
2025-01-01 30 200 14'7
2024-12-21 101 290 39'8
2024-12-11 50 220 36'5