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Championship · Matchweek 15
Blackburn RoversBBR
1–2
FT
Derby CountyDerby County

Momentum

– BBRDerby County –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
15

Venue

Stadium
Ewood Park, Blackburn
Capacity
31,367
Surface
grass
Attendance
20,147

Teams

Coaches
Valérien Ismaël · John Eustace
Position
18 · 12
Formation
3-4-1-2 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Thomas Kirk

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
12.1° (feels 11.6°)
Wind
2.9
Humidity
83%

Where to watch · 309

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Blackburn Rovers

LLWWW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 6 · xG 7.53–5.24 · xPts 8.41

  • W A Bristol City 1–0 xG 1.37–0.58 UK CHAMP
  • W A Leicester City 2–0 xG 1.73–1.3 UK CHAMP
  • W H Southampton 2–1 xG 2.18–1.15 UK CHAMP
  • L H Sheffield United 1–3 xG 0.99–1.19 UK CHAMP
  • L A Coventry City 0–2 xG 1.26–1.02 UK CHAMP

Derby County

LWWWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 3 · xG 5.79–6.87 · xPts 6.25

  • W H Hull City 2–1 xG 0.74–1.21 UK CHAMP
  • W A Sheffield United 3–1 xG 1.87–2.06 UK CHAMP
  • W H Queens Park Rangers 1–0 xG 1.6–0.29 UK CHAMP
  • W H Norwich City 1–0 xG 1.25–1.37 UK CHAMP
  • L A Oxford United 0–1 xG 0.32–1.94 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 27 matches since 2001

Blackburn Rovers 135 draws9 Derby County

Goals 40–30 · 2.59 per match · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 56%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Blackburn Rovers 60 draws4 Derby County

Goals 19–15 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 90%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Blackburn Rovers 20 draws3 Derby County

Goals 10–10 · 4.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • L Derby County 3–1 Blackburn Rovers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Blackburn Rovers 1–2 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 2–1 Blackburn Rovers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Blackburn Rovers 4–2 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Blackburn Rovers 3–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 1–2 Blackburn Rovers neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Blackburn Rovers 2–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 0–4 Blackburn Rovers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 3–0 Blackburn Rovers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Blackburn Rovers 1–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricBlackburn Rovers all · 46Blackburn Rovers at home · 23Derby County all · 46Derby County away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.130.911.501.43
W / D / L13 / 13 / 204 / 9 / 1020 / 9 / 1710 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match0.910.831.461.57
Goals against / match1.221.171.281.39
Clean sheets26%22%26%22%
Failed to score35%30%9%13%
Both teams scored48%56%65%65%
Over 2.539%30%52%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.201.261.231.18
xG against / match1.301.151.321.54
xG difference-0.100.11-0.09-0.35
Finishing vs xG-0.28-0.430.230.38
xPts / match1.321.461.331.18
Points vs xPts-0.19-0.540.170.25
Game state
Scored first46%39%54%56%
PPG when scoring first1.761.222.242.15
PPG when conceding first0.520.670.620.50
Came back from behind26%38%35%23%
Leads held56%40%69%67%
Minutes leading21%14%30%32%
Minutes level55%61%46%46%
Minutes trailing24%24%24%22%
First goal (min)44514035
First goal conceded (min)49534045
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half48%58%52%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half59%52%58%66%
Late goals for (76'+)0.220.350.260.26
Late goals against0.390.430.300.35
Style
Possession48%48%44%40%
Shots11.511.611.010.0
On target3.23.23.63.4
Shot conversion8%7%13%16%
Shots inside box67%69%70%77%
Big chances created2.01.72.22.2
Corners5.35.84.53.6
xG from set plays27%30%39%33%
Goals from headers27%26%28%25%
Pressure index10.110.710.18.6
Dominant minutes44.645.839.934.2
Pass accuracy74%73%73%70%
Fouls10.59.812.312.8
Cards2.172.002.632.96

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Blackburn Rovers

0–15'54
16–30'67
31–45'1112
46–60'69
61–75'46
76–90'1018

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Blackburn Rovers · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.55

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.047
Early press (0-15, level)-0.197
Late push (76+, level)+0.512
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.353

Game state

When ahead-0.145
When level+0.067
When behind+0.155
10 min after conceding+0.236
10 min after scoring+0.556

Situations

At home+0.004
Away+0.103
3 days rest or fewer+0.282
4+ days rest-0.055

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.016
Evenly matched+0.125
As underdog-0.142

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.067
Conceded when ahead+0.045
Conceded late (76+)-0.057

Congested vs rested +0.32 · Ahead vs level -0.21 · Behind vs level +0.09

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.297
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Blackburn Rovers

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-1-217 37%1.060.941.291.311.11
4-2-3-113 28%1.080.921.231.131.34
3-4-2-112 26%1.170.831.081.151.35
3-5-22 4%1.51.51.01.062.12
5-3-21 2%3.01.00.01.330.18

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-5-21 2%0.01.02.00.841.63

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.05Home 46% P 45%3.5Draw 27% P 28%3.5Away 27% P 26%

Double Chance

1.25Blackburn or Draw 38% P 37%1.3Blackburn or Derby 36% P 36%1.8Draw or Derby 26% P 28%

Draw No Bet

1.41 66%2.752 34%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50% P 51%1.83No 50% P 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 45%1.72Under 55% P 55%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.26 - 8 28%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

4.52.0Over 46% P 44%1.72Under 54% P 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 45–47.5% · away 25–27.5% · 853 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home45%46%44%-1.8
Draw28%28%30%+1.8
Away26%26%26%+0.0

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 48%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes51%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.545%46%45%-1.2

Thomas Kirk

Career
51 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
4.55 (4.39 yellow · 0.04 red)
Fouls / match
22.1 · 4.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.26
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 34 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.444.05+0.7074
Fouls / match21.721.8-0.12
Fouls per card4.95.4-0.98 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.210.17+0.3974
Time added8.07.2+0.9178
First card
35' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 38% in last 15'
Cards to home side
41% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-25 50 230 35'9
2025-10-22 40 120 72'9
2025-10-05 40 240 38'7
2025-10-04 30 211 71'8
2025-09-27 51 230 34'12
2025-09-13 40 200 8'10
2025-08-30 40 230 64'13
2025-08-16 40 270 16'12
2025-04-18 40 231 31'11
2025-03-01 60 291 14'7