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Championship · Matchweek 16
Bristol CityBristol City
3–0
FT
Swansea CitySwansea City

Momentum

– Bristol CitySwansea City –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
16

Venue

Stadium
Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol
Capacity
27,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
23,842

Teams

Coaches
Gerhard Struber · Alan Sheehan
Position
8 · 19
Formation
3-5-2 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Joshua Smith

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
9.5° (feels 6.5°)
Wind
6.2
Humidity
94%

Where to watch · 178

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Bristol City

WWLLD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 8 · xG 3.77–6.86 · xPts 4.42

  • D A Watford 1–1 xG 0.63–1.08 UK CHAMP
  • L H Blackburn Rovers 0–1 xG 0.58–1.37 UK CHAMP
  • L A Stoke City 1–5 xG 1.1–2.04 UK CHAMP
  • W H Birmingham City 1–0 xG 0.29–0.83 UK CHAMP
  • W H Southampton 3–1 xG 1.17–1.53 UK CHAMP

Swansea City

LWDLL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 5 GA 9 · xG 3.55–5.89 · xPts 5.04

  • L H Ipswich Town 1–4 xG 0.59–1.15 UK CHAMP
  • L A Preston North End 1–2 xG 1.0–0.6 UK CHAMP
  • D A Charlton Athletic 1–1 xG 0.81–1.43 UK CHAMP
  • W H Norwich City 2–1 xG 0.64–0.97 UK CHAMP
  • L H Queens Park Rangers 0–1 xG 0.5–1.74 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 24 matches since 2008

Bristol City 97 draws8 Swansea City

Goals 21–19 · 1.67 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 21%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Bristol City 43 draws3 Swansea City

Goals 11–9 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 30%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Bristol City 21 draws2 Swansea City

Goals 5–3 · 1.6 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 20%

Recent meetings

  • L Swansea City 1–0 Bristol City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Bristol City 3–0 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Bristol City 0–1 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Swansea City 1–1 Bristol City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Bristol City 1–0 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Swansea City 1–2 Bristol City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Swansea City 2–0 Bristol City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Swansea City 1–2 Bristol City aet UK FA Cup · 3rd Round Replays
  • D Bristol City 1–1 Swansea City UK FA Cup · 3rd Round
  • D Bristol City 1–1 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricBristol City all · 46Bristol City at home · 23Swansea City all · 46Swansea City away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.351.351.391.09
W / D / L17 / 11 / 189 / 4 / 1018 / 10 / 187 / 4 / 12
Goals for / match1.281.431.241.00
Goals against / match1.281.351.281.39
Clean sheets30%35%26%22%
Failed to score33%30%22%35%
Both teams scored46%39%54%48%
Over 2.546%48%50%48%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.181.211.221.10
xG against / match1.481.491.371.37
xG difference-0.29-0.28-0.15-0.27
Finishing vs xG0.100.220.02-0.10
xPts / match1.201.211.281.19
Points vs xPts0.150.130.12-0.11
Game state
Scored first39%44%48%35%
PPG when scoring first2.332.202.362.38
PPG when conceding first0.670.670.480.36
Came back from behind31%29%28%20%
Leads held77%75%72%78%
Minutes leading30%33%25%22%
Minutes level41%38%48%47%
Minutes trailing29%29%27%31%
First goal (min)32284643
First goal conceded (min)30314042
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half46%52%65%65%
Goals conceded in 2nd half44%48%52%59%
Late goals for (76'+)0.240.350.350.26
Late goals against0.240.300.300.30
Style
Possession49%52%55%54%
Shots12.212.712.311.0
On target4.14.03.94.0
Shot conversion10%11%10%9%
Shots inside box60%59%58%56%
Big chances created1.92.01.71.8
Corners4.84.74.54.0
xG from set plays24%20%36%36%
Goals from headers21%21%13%9%
Pressure index11.914.512.810.5
Dominant minutes43.948.951.945.9
Pass accuracy78%80%79%79%
Fouls9.58.89.810.6
Cards1.831.652.002.09

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Bristol City

0–15'911
16–30'1115
31–45'127
46–60'115
61–75'510
76–90'1111

Swansea City

0–15'66
16–30'86
31–45'616
46–60'1011
61–75'116
76–90'1614

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Bristol City · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.35) · stands out: as underdog +0.72

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.357
Early press (0-15, level)+0.347
Late push (76+, level)+0.213
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.134

Game state

When ahead+0.114
When level+0.397
When behind+0.514
10 min after conceding+0.077
10 min after scoring+0.565

Situations

At home+0.033
Away+0.614
3 days rest or fewer+0.372
4+ days rest+0.355

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.514
v bottom-tier opponents+0.153
As favourite+0.022
Evenly matched+0.162
As underdog+0.723

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.127
Conceded when ahead-0.294
Conceded late (76+)-0.387

Congested vs rested +0.02 · Ahead vs level -0.28 · Behind vs level +0.13

Swansea City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.047
Early press (0-15, level)+0.097
Late push (76+, level)-0.222

Game state

When ahead+0.214
When level-0.097
When behind-0.102
10 min after conceding-0.093
10 min after scoring+0.355

Situations

At home-0.024
Away+0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.092
4+ days rest+0.095

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.083
v bottom-tier opponents+0.134
As favourite+0.002
Evenly matched+0.114

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.017
Conceded when ahead-0.074
Conceded late (76+)-0.237

Congested vs rested -0.18 · Ahead vs level +0.30 · Behind vs level -0.01

Bristol City

Current: winless 2 · conceding 7

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-125 54%1.481.441.41.161.42
4-2-3-18 17%1.131.251.380.971.51
3-5-25 11%0.81.01.01.521.38
3-4-1-24 9%1.00.751.51.481.44
5-3-21 2%1.01.01.00.411.82

Swansea City

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-122 48%1.321.231.411.191.3
4-1-4-111 24%1.821.360.731.351.38
4-3-37 15%1.431.141.141.131.33
3-4-2-12 4%0.01.03.00.80.88
4-4-21 2%0.01.03.01.932.01

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.95Home 48% P 49%3.5Draw 27% P 27%3.8Away 25% P 25%

Double Chance

1.25Bristol City or Draw 38% P 38%1.28Bristol City or Swansea 37% P 37%1.9Draw or Swansea 25% P 26%

Draw No Bet

1.361 69%3.02 31%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50% P 52%1.83No 50% P 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 48%1.8Under 53% P 52%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.26 - 8 28%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50%1.83Under 50%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 22.5–25% · 808 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home49%49%47%-1.9
Draw27%28%29%+1.7
Away25%24%24%+0.3

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 48%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.548%49%50%+1.3

Joshua Smith

Career
156 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.09 (3.95 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
22.1 · 5.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.2
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 122 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.34.05+0.4563
Fouls / match22.121.8+0.21
Fouls per card5.35.4-0.42 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.20.17+0.2667
Time added6.97.2-0.3735
First card
35' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-01 30 200 28'7
2025-10-25 20 200 75'7
2025-10-18 · Swansea City 40 250 34'8
2025-09-30 10 200 51'6
2025-09-22 10 200 30'7
2025-08-29 60 270 45'14
2025-08-23 61 180 25'12
2025-08-09 · Bristol City –– 20– –7
2025-03-12 61 200 45'7
2025-02-15 10 200 82'6