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Championship · Matchweek 16
Derby CountyDerby County
2–3
FT
WatfordWatford

Momentum

– Derby CountyWatford –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
16

Venue

Stadium
Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Capacity
33,597
Surface
grass
Attendance
29,442

Teams

Coaches
John Eustace · Javier Gracia Carlos
Position
9 · 16
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Gavin Ward

Weather

Conditions
light intensity drizzle
Temperature
7.9° (feels 6.3°)
Wind
2.6
Humidity
92%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Derby County

WWWWW 5W 0D 0L · 15 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 9 GA 3 · xG 6.25–6.09 · xPts 6.96

  • W A Blackburn Rovers 2–1 xG 0.79–1.15 UK CHAMP
  • W H Hull City 2–1 xG 0.74–1.21 UK CHAMP
  • W A Sheffield United 3–1 xG 1.87–2.06 UK CHAMP
  • W H Queens Park Rangers 1–0 xG 1.6–0.29 UK CHAMP
  • W H Norwich City 1–0 xG 1.25–1.37 UK CHAMP

Watford

WLWDD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 8 GA 6 · xG 5.54–6.0 · xPts 6.51

  • D H Bristol City 1–1 xG 1.08–0.63 UK CHAMP
  • D A Ipswich Town 1–1 xG 0.35–1.92 UK CHAMP
  • W H Middlesbrough 3–0 xG 0.8–0.97 UK CHAMP
  • L A Coventry City 1–3 xG 2.29–1.56 UK CHAMP
  • W H West Bromwich Albion 2–1 xG 1.02–0.92 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 22 matches since 2005

Derby County 92 draws11 Watford

Goals 35–35 · 3.18 per match · BTTS 64% · over 2.5 68%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Derby County 31 draws6 Watford

Goals 15–19 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Derby County 00 draws5 Watford

Goals 4–11 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Watford 2–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 2–3 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 0–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 2–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 2–1 Derby County neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 0–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 2–2 Watford neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 1–2 Derby County neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 4–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 2–3 Derby County neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricDerby County all · 46Derby County at home · 23Watford all · 46Watford away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.501.571.240.87
W / D / L20 / 9 / 1710 / 6 / 714 / 15 / 174 / 8 / 11
Goals for / match1.461.351.151.00
Goals against / match1.281.171.411.65
Clean sheets26%30%15%9%
Failed to score9%4%30%30%
Both teams scored65%65%59%65%
Over 2.552%39%48%52%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.231.271.341.19
xG against / match1.321.111.251.34
xG difference-0.090.160.10-0.15
Finishing vs xG0.230.07-0.19-0.19
xPts / match1.331.471.431.30
Points vs xPts0.170.09-0.20-0.43
Game state
Scored first54%52%26%22%
PPG when scoring first2.242.332.331.80
PPG when conceding first0.620.730.840.59
Came back from behind35%46%47%35%
Leads held69%71%67%40%
Minutes leading30%29%18%10%
Minutes level46%46%49%50%
Minutes trailing24%25%34%40%
First goal (min)40454853
First goal conceded (min)40363432
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half52%55%58%70%
Goals conceded in 2nd half58%48%48%45%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.260.300.30
Late goals against0.300.260.280.35
Style
Possession44%48%51%51%
Shots11.011.913.812.0
On target3.63.74.43.5
Shot conversion13%11%8%8%
Shots inside box70%65%58%58%
Big chances created2.22.32.12.0
Corners4.55.54.94.4
xG from set plays39%44%27%31%
Goals from headers28%32%14%9%
Pressure index10.111.610.99.5
Dominant minutes39.945.747.041.8
Pass accuracy73%77%80%79%
Fouls12.311.911.010.8
Cards2.632.302.152.43

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.297
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Watford · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-5-21 2%0.01.02.00.841.63

Watford

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.4Home 39% P 40%3.2Draw 29% P 30%3.0Away 31% P 30%

Double Chance

1.36Derby or Draw 34% P 35%1.33Derby or Watford 35% P 35%1.53Draw or Watford 31% P 30%

Draw No Bet

1.661 56%2.12 44%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 49% P 47%1.8No 51% P 53%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.3Over 41% P 39%1.61Under 59% P 61%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54%2.0Under 46%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 37.5–40% · away 30–32.5% · 800 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home40%39%39%-0.2
Draw30%30%31%+1.5
Away30%31%30%-1.3

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 44%

Both teams to score · yes 45–47.5% · 2,102 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes47%46%47%+0.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 37.5–40% · 1,310 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.539%39%39%+0.7

Gavin Ward

Career
292 matches · 18 seasons
Cards / match
3.58 (3.43 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
21.6 · 4.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.2
Cards to home side
43%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 124 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.834.05-0.4029
Fouls / match20.821.8-1.02
Fouls per card5.55.4+0.00 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.160.17-0.2445
Time added7.27.2-0.0247
First card
39' on average
Card timing
13% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-04 –– 15– –6
2025-10-21 20 170 50'8
2025-10-04 40 261 46'7
2025-09-30 · Derby County 20 210 65'8
2025-09-13 80 190 34'12
2025-08-30 20 150 52'5
2025-08-16 20 180 74'7
2025-04-21 · Derby County 30 220 10'8
2025-04-09 40 170 37'2
2025-04-05 –– 20– –5