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Championship · Matchweek 16
PortsmouthPortsmouth
3–1
FT
MillwallMillwall

Momentum

– PortsmouthMillwall –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
16

Venue

Stadium
Fratton Park, Portsmouth
Capacity
20,688
Surface
grass
Attendance
20,423

Teams

Coaches
John Mousinho · Alex Neil
Position
20 · 4
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Michael Salisbury

Weather

Conditions
moderate rain
Temperature
8.1° (feels 5.3°)
Wind
4.9
Humidity
93%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Portsmouth

LLLDL 0W 1D 4L · 1 pts (0.2 ppg) · GF 3 GA 10 · xG 5.66–9.37 · xPts 5.48

  • L A Hull City 2–3 xG 1.12–2.01 UK CHAMP
  • D H Wrexham 0–0 xG 1.81–0.54 UK CHAMP
  • L A Birmingham City 0–4 xG 0.28–3.31 UK CHAMP
  • L H Stoke City 0–1 xG 1.65–0.96 UK CHAMP
  • L H Coventry City 1–2 xG 0.79–2.55 UK CHAMP

Millwall

WWDLD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 6 GA 7 · xG 7.24–4.67 · xPts 8.55

  • D H Preston North End 1–1 xG 1.53–0.74 UK CHAMP
  • L A Birmingham City 0–4 xG 0.16–1.69 UK CHAMP
  • D A Oxford United 2–2 xG 2.25–0.57 UK CHAMP
  • W H Leicester City 1–0 xG 1.41–0.8 UK CHAMP
  • W H Stoke City 2–0 xG 1.89–0.87 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 8 matches since 2010

Portsmouth 31 draws4 Millwall

Goals 9–8 · 2.13 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 38%

Last 10 · 8 matches

Portsmouth 31 draws4 Millwall

Goals 9–8 · 2.13 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 38%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Portsmouth 20 draws3 Millwall

Goals 7–6 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Millwall 1–3 Portsmouth UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Portsmouth 3–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 2–1 Portsmouth UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Portsmouth 0–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Portsmouth 0–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 1–0 Portsmouth UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Portsmouth 1–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 0–1 Portsmouth UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricPortsmouth all · 46Portsmouth at home · 23Millwall all · 48Millwall away · 24
Results
Matches46234824
Points per game1.201.301.751.75
W / D / L14 / 13 / 198 / 6 / 924 / 12 / 1211 / 9 / 4
Goals for / match1.071.091.331.29
Goals against / match1.391.001.061.00
Clean sheets22%26%40%33%
Failed to score28%30%21%21%
Both teams scored54%48%48%58%
Over 2.544%39%46%42%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.181.461.501.38
xG against / match1.241.121.331.51
xG difference-0.060.340.18-0.13
Finishing vs xG-0.11-0.37-0.17-0.08
xPts / match1.361.601.471.30
Points vs xPts-0.16-0.300.280.45
Game state
Scored first46%48%52%46%
PPG when scoring first2.192.272.602.64
PPG when conceding first0.300.360.791.00
Came back from behind27%31%43%60%
Leads held64%67%86%85%
Minutes leading18%23%27%20%
Minutes level51%51%56%61%
Minutes trailing31%27%17%18%
First goal (min)50454451
First goal conceded (min)41454342
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%56%61%71%
Goals conceded in 2nd half55%56%67%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.280.350.350.38
Late goals against0.280.130.350.25
Style
Possession50%54%48%46%
Shots12.215.412.912.3
On target3.74.44.23.8
Shot conversion9%7%10%10%
Shots inside box65%67%68%65%
Big chances created1.61.82.32.2
Corners5.66.35.75.2
xG from set plays40%41%33%30%
Goals from headers16%20%16%13%
Pressure index11.714.811.99.1
Dominant minutes49.757.044.439.2
Pass accuracy74%74%70%69%
Fouls10.29.812.614.4
Cards1.931.741.902.42

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Portsmouth

0–15'59
16–30'512
31–45'98
46–60'814
61–75'98
76–90'1313

Millwall

0–15'66
16–30'96
31–45'105
46–60'1112
61–75'115
76–90'1717

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Portsmouth · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.01) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.40

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.016
Early press (0-15, level)-0.056
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.403

Game state

When ahead+0.163
When level+0.056
When behind-0.153
10 min after conceding-0.104
10 min after scoring+0.024

Situations

At home-0.013
Away+0.033
4+ days rest-0.015

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.052
v bottom-tier opponents+0.044
Evenly matched-0.004

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.036
Conceded when ahead+0.013
Conceded late (76+)-0.286

Congested vs rested +0.16 · Ahead vs level +0.11 · Behind vs level -0.20

Millwall · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.01) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.54

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.017
Early press (0-15, level)+0.217

Game state

When ahead+0.045
When level+0.017
When behind-0.133
10 min after conceding-0.344
10 min after scoring+0.546

Situations

Against ten men-0.122
At home+0.043
Away-0.044
3 days rest or fewer-0.322
4+ days rest+0.135

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.054
v bottom-tier opponents-0.073
Evenly matched+0.104
As underdog-0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.275
Conceded late (76+)-0.035

Congested vs rested -0.45 · Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level -0.14

Portsmouth

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-143 94%1.261.091.31.181.23
3-4-2-12 4%0.51.01.51.461.28
3-4-31 2%0.00.05.00.341.67

Millwall

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 83%1.81.41.081.541.27
4-4-24 8%1.750.750.751.480.88
4-4-1-12 4%0.51.01.51.252.23
4-3-1-21 2%3.02.01.01.073.62
4-1-4-11 2%1.01.01.01.11.34

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.25Home 42% P 42%3.25Draw 29% P 29%3.25Away 29% P 29%

Double Chance

1.33Portsmouth or Draw 35% P 36%1.33Portsmouth or Millwall 35% P 36%1.61Draw or Millwall 29% P 29%

Draw No Bet

1.571 59%2.252 41%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50% P 51%1.83No 50% P 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 45%1.72Under 55% P 55%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.66 - 8 24%2.629 - 11 33%3.7512 - 14 23%7.0Over 14 12%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 27.5–30% · 815 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home42%41%42%+0.5
Draw29%30%27%-2.4
Away29%29%31%+1.9

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 43%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes51%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.545%44%43%-1.2

Michael Salisbury

Career
139 matches · 12 seasons
Cards / match
3.52 (3.35 yellow · 0.14 red)
Fouls / match
21.6 · 5.9 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.26
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 34 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.384.05-1.2214
Fouls / match22.121.8+0.26
Fouls per card6.55.4+1.47 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.150.17-0.4422
Time added6.57.2-0.8316
First card
35' on average
Card timing
18% in first 30' · 24% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-08 40 280 25'10
2025-11-01 30 211 35'7
2025-10-05 50 291 68'9
2025-09-27 50 200 32'9
2025-09-13 40 220 77'8
2025-08-23 10 140 19'16
2025-04-26 51 181 30'11
2025-04-23 20 100 45'11
2025-04-12 40 240 45'12
2025-04-06 20 361 26'11