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Championship · Matchweek 17
Swansea CitySwansea City
1–2
FT
Derby CountyDerby County

Momentum

– Swansea CityDerby County –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
17

Venue

Stadium
Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
Capacity
20,827
Surface
grass
Attendance
14,251

Teams

Coaches
Vítor Matos · John Eustace
Position
20 · 12
Formation
4-3-3 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Andrew Kitchen

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
4.4° (feels 3.0°)
Wind
1.7
Humidity
82%

Where to watch · 178

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Swansea City

WDLLL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 5 GA 11 · xG 4.17–6.1 · xPts 5.37

  • L A Bristol City 0–3 xG 1.12–1.96 UK CHAMP
  • L H Ipswich Town 1–4 xG 0.59–1.15 UK CHAMP
  • L A Preston North End 1–2 xG 1.0–0.6 UK CHAMP
  • D A Charlton Athletic 1–1 xG 0.81–1.43 UK CHAMP
  • W H Norwich City 2–1 xG 0.64–0.97 UK CHAMP

Derby County

WWWWL 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 10 GA 6 · xG 5.39–6.32 · xPts 6.17

  • L H Watford 2–3 xG 0.4–1.6 UK CHAMP
  • W A Blackburn Rovers 2–1 xG 0.79–1.15 UK CHAMP
  • W H Hull City 2–1 xG 0.74–1.21 UK CHAMP
  • W A Sheffield United 3–1 xG 1.87–2.06 UK CHAMP
  • W H Queens Park Rangers 1–0 xG 1.6–0.29 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 19 matches since 2008

Swansea City 76 draws6 Derby County

Goals 21–20 · 2.16 per match · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 47%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Swansea City 51 draws4 Derby County

Goals 13–12 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Swansea City 30 draws2 Derby County

Goals 7–5 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Derby County 0–3 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 2–0 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Swansea City 1–2 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Swansea City 1–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 1–2 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Swansea City 2–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 0–0 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Swansea City 2–1 Derby County neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 2–0 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Swansea City 2–3 Derby County neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricSwansea City all · 46Swansea City at home · 23Derby County all · 46Derby County away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.391.701.501.43
W / D / L18 / 10 / 1811 / 6 / 620 / 9 / 1710 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match1.241.481.461.57
Goals against / match1.281.171.281.39
Clean sheets26%30%26%22%
Failed to score22%9%9%13%
Both teams scored54%61%65%65%
Over 2.550%52%52%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.221.351.231.18
xG against / match1.371.371.321.54
xG difference-0.15-0.02-0.09-0.35
Finishing vs xG0.020.130.230.38
xPts / match1.281.361.331.18
Points vs xPts0.120.340.170.25
Game state
Scored first48%61%54%56%
PPG when scoring first2.362.362.242.15
PPG when conceding first0.480.670.620.50
Came back from behind28%40%35%23%
Leads held72%69%69%67%
Minutes leading25%28%30%32%
Minutes level48%48%46%46%
Minutes trailing27%23%24%22%
First goal (min)46494035
First goal conceded (min)40374045
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half65%65%52%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half52%44%58%66%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.430.260.26
Late goals against0.300.300.300.35
Style
Possession55%56%44%40%
Shots12.313.611.010.0
On target3.93.83.63.4
Shot conversion10%11%13%16%
Shots inside box58%60%70%77%
Big chances created1.71.72.22.2
Corners4.55.14.53.6
xG from set plays36%36%39%33%
Goals from headers13%16%28%25%
Pressure index12.815.210.18.6
Dominant minutes51.958.039.934.2
Pass accuracy79%80%73%70%
Fouls9.89.112.312.8
Cards2.001.912.632.96

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Swansea City

0–15'66
16–30'86
31–45'616
46–60'1011
61–75'116
76–90'1614

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Swansea City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.047
Early press (0-15, level)+0.097
Late push (76+, level)-0.222

Game state

When ahead+0.214
When level-0.097
When behind-0.102
10 min after conceding-0.093
10 min after scoring+0.355

Situations

At home-0.024
Away+0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.092
4+ days rest+0.095

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.083
v bottom-tier opponents+0.134
As favourite+0.002
Evenly matched+0.114

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.017
Conceded when ahead-0.074
Conceded late (76+)-0.237

Congested vs rested -0.18 · Ahead vs level +0.30 · Behind vs level -0.01

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.297
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Swansea City

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-122 48%1.321.231.411.191.3
4-1-4-111 24%1.821.360.731.351.38
4-3-37 15%1.431.141.141.131.33
3-4-2-12 4%0.01.03.00.80.88
4-4-21 2%0.01.03.01.932.01

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-4-31 2%3.03.00.01.470.12

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.2Home 43% P 42%3.0Draw 31% P 31%3.6Away 26% P 26%

Double Chance

1.28Swansea or Draw 37% P 37%1.36Swansea or Derby 35% P 34%1.66Draw or Derby 28% P 29%

Draw No Bet

1.51 62%2.52 38%

Both Teams To Score

2.1Yes 44% P 44%1.66No 56% P 56%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.62Over 36% P 36%1.5Under 64% P 64%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54%2.0Under 46%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 25–27.5% · 232 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home42%42%47%+5.0
Draw31%32%29%-2.8
Away26%27%25%-2.2

In those fixtures: 2.3 goals a game · BTTS 44% · over 2.5 41%

Both teams to score · yes 42.5–45% · 1,287 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes44%44%48%+4.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 35–37.5% · 819 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.536%36%41%+4.2

Andrew Kitchen

Career
95 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
3.09 (3.01 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
22.4 · 7.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.18
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 78 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.334.05-1.318
Fouls / match22.821.8+0.84
Fouls per card7.05.4+2.15 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.180.17+0.0155
Time added7.57.2+0.3357
First card
43' on average
Card timing
11% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
Cards to home side
44% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-22 51 190 28'8
2025-11-08 30 260 49'8
2025-11-01 30 221 23'5
2025-10-25 30 170 44'7
2025-10-18 30 100 10'10
2025-10-05 40 240 17'8
2025-09-27 30 260 7'5
2025-09-19 –– 10– –8
2025-08-30 40 230 17'8
2025-08-17 20 150 12'9