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Championship · Matchweek 17
WatfordWatford
1–1
FT
Preston North EndPNE

Momentum

– WatfordPNE –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
17

Venue

Stadium
Vicarage Road, Watford
Capacity
22,200
Surface
grass
Attendance
16,113

Teams

Coaches
Javier Gracia Carlos · Paul Heckingbottom
Position
11 · 5
Formation
4-4-2 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

James Bell

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
3.8° (feels 1.0°)
Wind
3.1
Humidity
89%

Where to watch · 178

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Watford

LWDDW 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 9 GA 7 · xG 6.12–5.48 · xPts 7.34

  • W A Derby County 3–2 xG 1.6–0.4 UK CHAMP
  • D H Bristol City 1–1 xG 1.08–0.63 UK CHAMP
  • D A Ipswich Town 1–1 xG 0.35–1.92 UK CHAMP
  • W H Middlesbrough 3–0 xG 0.8–0.97 UK CHAMP
  • L A Coventry City 1–3 xG 2.29–1.56 UK CHAMP

Preston North End

WWWDL 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 9 GA 6 · xG 6.92–6.59 · xPts 6.96

  • L H Blackburn Rovers 1–2 xG 2.18–1.4 UK CHAMP
  • D A Millwall 1–1 xG 0.74–1.53 UK CHAMP
  • W H Swansea City 2–1 xG 0.6–1.0 UK CHAMP
  • W A Southampton 2–0 xG 1.91–0.65 UK CHAMP
  • W H Sheffield United 3–2 xG 1.49–2.01 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 21 matches since 2005

Watford 69 draws6 Preston North End

Goals 26–24 · 2.38 per match · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 48%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Watford 35 draws2 Preston North End

Goals 12–10 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Watford 12 draws2 Preston North End

Goals 6–9 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W Watford 2–1 Preston North End UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Preston North End 2–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Watford 1–1 Preston North End UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 1–2 Preston North End UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Preston North End 3–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Watford 0–0 Preston North End UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Preston North End 1–5 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Watford 0–0 Preston North End UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Preston North End 0–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Preston North End 0–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricWatford all · 46Watford at home · 23Preston North End all · 46Preston North End away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.241.611.301.26
W / D / L14 / 15 / 1710 / 7 / 615 / 15 / 167 / 8 / 8
Goals for / match1.151.301.201.17
Goals against / match1.411.171.351.39
Clean sheets15%22%20%17%
Failed to score30%30%26%26%
Both teams scored59%52%59%61%
Over 2.548%44%48%48%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.341.501.181.14
xG against / match1.251.151.631.83
xG difference0.100.34-0.45-0.70
Finishing vs xG-0.19-0.190.020.04
xPts / match1.431.571.131.01
Points vs xPts-0.200.040.170.25
Game state
Scored first26%30%41%44%
PPG when scoring first2.332.712.162.00
PPG when conceding first0.841.130.680.67
Came back from behind47%60%38%33%
Leads held67%91%62%54%
Minutes leading18%25%28%30%
Minutes level49%48%45%43%
Minutes trailing34%27%27%27%
First goal (min)48423632
First goal conceded (min)34364240
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%50%51%41%
Goals conceded in 2nd half48%52%50%41%
Late goals for (76'+)0.300.300.260.22
Late goals against0.280.220.300.26
Style
Possession51%52%46%44%
Shots13.815.710.910.6
On target4.45.43.63.8
Shot conversion8%8%11%11%
Shots inside box58%57%68%66%
Big chances created2.12.41.61.6
Corners4.95.44.53.7
xG from set plays27%23%34%33%
Goals from headers14%17%22%22%
Pressure index10.912.48.88.1
Dominant minutes47.052.240.538.6
Pass accuracy80%81%72%72%
Fouls11.011.110.410.7
Cards2.151.872.092.04

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Preston North End

0–15'1111
16–30'107
31–45'613
46–60'109
61–75'68
76–90'1214

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Watford · 8 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.12) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.128
Early press (0-15, level)-0.178
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.264

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.198
When behind-0.055
10 min after conceding-0.218
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away-0.014
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.186

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.203
As underdog-0.126

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.308
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)+0.068

Congested vs rested +0.24 · Ahead vs level +0.04 · Behind vs level +0.14

Preston North End · 7 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.18) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.54

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.187
Early press (0-15, level)-0.177
Late push (76+, level)+0.013
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.546

Game state

When ahead-0.162
When level+0.017
When behind-0.336
10 min after conceding-0.327
10 min after scoring+0.295

Situations

At home-0.194
Away-0.163
3 days rest or fewer-0.052
4+ days rest-0.235

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.222
v bottom-tier opponents-0.165
Evenly matched-0.154
As underdog-0.223

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.107
Conceded when ahead+0.172
Conceded late (76+)-0.027

Congested vs rested +0.18 · Ahead vs level -0.17 · Behind vs level -0.34

Watford

Current: winless 2 · conceding 15

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Preston North End

Current: winless 2 · conceding 22

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-214 30%1.51.361.361.191.42
3-1-4-29 20%1.221.111.111.221.23
5-3-27 15%0.710.861.710.971.94
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.01.21.231.86
4-4-25 11%1.81.41.61.441.99

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.8Home 53% P 53%3.6Draw 26% P 27%4.5Away 21% P 20%

Double Chance

1.18Watford or Draw 40% P 40%1.28Watford or Preston 36% P 37%1.95Draw or Preston 24% P 23%

Draw No Bet

1.31 72%3.42 28%

Both Teams To Score

2.0Yes 46% P 48%1.72No 54% P 52%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.2Over 43% P 43%1.66Under 57% P 57%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 52.5–55% · away 20–22.5% · 665 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home53%54%56%+2.6
Draw27%25%27%+1.4
Away20%21%17%-4.0

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 54%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes48%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,474 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.543%44%43%-1.2

James Bell

Career
75 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
3.95 (3.81 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
20.6 · 5.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.19
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 67 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.964.05-0.1747
Fouls / match20.421.8-1.33
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.47 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.160.17-0.1949
Time added7.77.2+0.5567
First card
35' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 38% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-05 40 260 38'9
2025-11-01 30 230 7'6
2025-10-25 30 201 28'10
2025-10-18 50 210 43'7
2025-08-09 40 251 25'10
2025-05-03 20 180 48'7
2025-04-28 10 100 49'6
2025-04-21 30 220 73'6
2025-04-08 · Watford 30 130 39'2
2025-04-05 60 320 18'6