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Championship · Matchweek 18
Birmingham CityBRC
2–1
FT
WatfordWatford

Momentum

– BRCWatford –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
18

Venue

Stadium
St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham
Capacity
29,409
Surface
grass
Attendance
26,086

Teams

Coaches
Chris Davies · Javier Gracia Carlos
Position
11 · 15
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-4-2

Referee

Adam Herczeg

Weather

Conditions
moderate rain
Temperature
9.3° (feels 6.9°)
Wind
4.6
Humidity
94%

Where to watch · 227

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Birmingham City

WWLWD 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 14 GA 4 · xG 10.28–3.95 · xPts 10.59

  • D A West Bromwich Albion 1–1 xG 1.17–1.08 UK CHAMP
  • W H Norwich City 4–1 xG 2.78–1.77 UK CHAMP
  • L A Middlesbrough 1–2 xG 1.33–0.66 UK CHAMP
  • W H Millwall 4–0 xG 1.69–0.16 UK CHAMP
  • W H Portsmouth 4–0 xG 3.31–0.28 UK CHAMP

Watford

WDDWD 2W 3D 0L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 9 GA 5 · xG 5.78–4.51 · xPts 7.81

  • D H Preston North End 1–1 xG 1.95–0.59 UK CHAMP
  • W A Derby County 3–2 xG 1.6–0.4 UK CHAMP
  • D H Bristol City 1–1 xG 1.08–0.63 UK CHAMP
  • D A Ipswich Town 1–1 xG 0.35–1.92 UK CHAMP
  • W H Middlesbrough 3–0 xG 0.8–0.97 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 18 matches since 2008

Birmingham City 52 draws11 Watford

Goals 14–29 · 2.39 per match · BTTS 28% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Birmingham City 21 draws7 Watford

Goals 5–17 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Birmingham City 10 draws4 Watford

Goals 2–10 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Watford 3–0 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Birmingham City 2–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Birmingham City 0–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 2–0 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 3–0 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Birmingham City 1–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 3–0 Birmingham City neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Birmingham City 0–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 1–0 Birmingham City neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Birmingham City 2–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricBirmingham City all · 46Birmingham City at home · 23Watford all · 46Watford away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.391.911.240.87
W / D / L17 / 13 / 1612 / 8 / 314 / 15 / 174 / 8 / 11
Goals for / match1.241.701.151.00
Goals against / match1.220.961.411.65
Clean sheets22%30%15%9%
Failed to score24%9%30%30%
Both teams scored56%65%59%65%
Over 2.546%48%48%52%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.491.911.341.19
xG against / match1.141.001.251.34
xG difference0.350.910.10-0.15
Finishing vs xG-0.25-0.21-0.19-0.19
xPts / match1.571.921.431.30
Points vs xPts-0.18-0.01-0.20-0.43
Game state
Scored first50%78%26%22%
PPG when scoring first2.352.332.331.80
PPG when conceding first0.410.250.840.59
Came back from behind33%40%47%35%
Leads held71%67%67%40%
Minutes leading28%44%18%10%
Minutes level42%46%49%50%
Minutes trailing31%10%34%40%
First goal (min)39304853
First goal conceded (min)35463432
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half49%44%58%70%
Goals conceded in 2nd half39%50%48%45%
Late goals for (76'+)0.240.170.300.30
Late goals against0.150.170.280.35
Style
Possession54%55%51%51%
Shots13.617.313.812.0
On target4.15.74.43.5
Shot conversion9%10%8%8%
Shots inside box64%63%58%58%
Big chances created2.43.02.12.0
Corners5.86.64.94.4
xG from set plays30%29%27%31%
Goals from headers21%24%14%9%
Pressure index14.418.310.99.5
Dominant minutes54.364.047.041.8
Pass accuracy77%77%80%79%
Fouls11.711.011.010.8
Cards2.112.002.152.43

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Birmingham City

0–15'1010
16–30'1112
31–45'812
46–60'98
61–75'87
76–90'117

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Birmingham City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.12) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.127
Early press (0-15, level)+0.137
Late push (76+, level)-0.194
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.552

Game state

When ahead+0.152
When level+0.247
When behind-0.295
10 min after conceding-0.366
10 min after scoring+0.296

Situations

At home-0.063
Away+0.274
3 days rest or fewer+0.362
4+ days rest+0.035

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.155
v bottom-tier opponents+0.072
Evenly matched+0.093
As underdog+0.263

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.122
Conceded late (76+)-0.207

Congested vs rested +0.33 · Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level -0.53

Watford · 8 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.12) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.128
Early press (0-15, level)-0.178
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.264

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.198
When behind-0.055
10 min after conceding-0.218
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away-0.014
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.186

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.203
As underdog-0.126

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.308
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)+0.068

Congested vs rested +0.24 · Ahead vs level +0.04 · Behind vs level +0.14

Birmingham City

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 6 · conceding 6

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 87%1.381.331.281.541.16
4-4-22 4%1.50.50.51.160.61
4-4-1-12 4%1.51.01.51.730.5
3-4-31 2%0.00.01.00.251.91
4-1-4-11 2%3.01.00.00.831.5

Watford

Current: winless 2 · conceding 15

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.75Home 54% P 54%3.7Draw 25% P 26%4.5Away 21% P 21%

Double Chance

1.22Birmingham or Draw 39% P 39%1.28Birmingham or Watford 37% P 38%1.9Draw or Watford 25% P 23%

Draw No Bet

1.331 71%3.252 29%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50% P 52%1.83No 50% P 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 48%1.8Under 53% P 52%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.16 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

4.51.9Over 49%1.8Under 51%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 52.5–55% · away 20–22.5% · 665 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home54%54%56%+2.6
Draw26%25%27%+1.4
Away21%21%17%-4.0

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 54%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.548%49%50%+1.3

Adam Herczeg

Career
41 matches · 6 seasons
Cards / match
3.66 (3.54 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
21.8 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.12
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 34 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.914.05-0.2643
Fouls / match22.321.8+0.38
Fouls per card5.75.4+0.22 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.150.17-0.4222
Time added7.97.2+0.7874
First card
37' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-26 30 200 22'10
2025-11-04 71 291 49'9
2025-10-25 40 250 45'8
2025-10-18 60 190 33'12
2025-10-04 20 120 45'11
2025-09-30 70 331 36'8
2025-08-23 30 230 28'7
2025-08-09 50 200 35'7
2025-03-15 10 250 13'9
2025-03-08 81 271 33'11