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Championship · Matchweek 18
MiddlesbroughMID
2–1
FT
Derby CountyDerby County

Momentum

– MIDDerby County –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
18

Venue

Stadium
Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
Capacity
34,988
Surface
grass
Attendance
25,402

Teams

Coaches
Kim Hellberg · John Eustace
Position
3 · 8
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-5-2

Referee

James Linington

Weather

Conditions
light intensity shower rain
Temperature
5.7° (feels 2.2°)
Wind
5.1
Humidity
94%

Where to watch · 177

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Middlesbrough

LDWDL 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 10 · xG 4.88–6.27 · xPts 5.88

  • L H Coventry City 2–4 xG 0.95–2.01 UK CHAMP
  • D A Oxford United 1–1 xG 0.91–0.74 UK CHAMP
  • W H Birmingham City 2–1 xG 0.66–1.33 UK CHAMP
  • D A Leicester City 1–1 xG 1.39–1.38 UK CHAMP
  • L A Watford 0–3 xG 0.97–0.8 UK CHAMP

Derby County

WWWLW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 11 GA 7 · xG 4.91–6.93 · xPts 5.33

  • W A Swansea City 2–1 xG 1.11–0.91 UK CHAMP
  • L H Watford 2–3 xG 0.4–1.6 UK CHAMP
  • W A Blackburn Rovers 2–1 xG 0.79–1.15 UK CHAMP
  • W H Hull City 2–1 xG 0.74–1.21 UK CHAMP
  • W A Sheffield United 3–1 xG 1.87–2.06 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 34 matches since 2000

Middlesbrough 188 draws8 Derby County

Goals 53–34 · 2.56 per match · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 47%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Middlesbrough 42 draws4 Derby County

Goals 13–10 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Middlesbrough 30 draws2 Derby County

Goals 7–4 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L Derby County 1–0 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Middlesbrough 2–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Middlesbrough 1–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 1–0 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Middlesbrough 4–1 Derby County neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 0–0 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 2–1 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Middlesbrough 3–0 Derby County neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Middlesbrough 2–2 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 2–0 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricMiddlesbrough all · 49Middlesbrough at home · 24Derby County all · 46Derby County away · 23
Results
Matches49244623
Points per game1.651.791.501.43
W / D / L22 / 15 / 1212 / 7 / 520 / 9 / 1710 / 3 / 10
Goals for / match1.491.421.461.57
Goals against / match1.020.751.281.39
Clean sheets29%42%26%22%
Failed to score26%29%9%13%
Both teams scored55%46%65%65%
Over 2.553%42%52%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.591.621.231.18
xG against / match1.050.951.321.54
xG difference0.530.67-0.09-0.35
Finishing vs xG-0.10-0.210.230.38
xPts / match1.701.801.331.18
Points vs xPts-0.04-0.010.170.25
Game state
Scored first53%54%54%56%
PPG when scoring first2.462.622.242.15
PPG when conceding first0.670.710.620.50
Came back from behind46%38%35%23%
Leads held79%86%69%67%
Minutes leading32%33%30%32%
Minutes level49%52%46%46%
Minutes trailing19%15%24%22%
First goal (min)37384035
First goal conceded (min)46474045
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half51%53%52%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half55%61%58%66%
Late goals for (76'+)0.220.170.260.26
Late goals against0.290.290.300.35
Style
Possession59%60%44%40%
Shots16.217.311.010.0
On target4.85.23.63.4
Shot conversion9%8%13%16%
Shots inside box64%63%70%77%
Big chances created2.42.32.22.2
Corners6.87.84.53.6
xG from set plays24%30%39%33%
Goals from headers12%15%28%25%
Pressure index19.721.010.18.6
Dominant minutes63.163.139.934.2
Pass accuracy84%84%73%70%
Fouls9.39.212.312.8
Cards1.611.082.632.96

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Middlesbrough

0–15'97
16–30'1010
31–45'175
46–60'136
61–75'138
76–90'1113

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Middlesbrough · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.38) · stands out: when behind +1.00

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.387
Early press (0-15, level)+0.477
Late push (76+, level)+0.294

Game state

When ahead+0.196
When level+0.237
When behind+1.004
10 min after conceding+0.276
10 min after scoring+0.697

Situations

At home+0.464
Away+0.263
3 days rest or fewer+0.822
4+ days rest+0.205

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.415
v bottom-tier opponents+0.282
As favourite+0.435
Evenly matched+0.262

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.137
Conceded when ahead-0.116
Conceded late (76+)-0.417

Congested vs rested +0.62 · Ahead vs level -0.04 · Behind vs level +0.77

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.297
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Middlesbrough

Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-114 29%1.431.140.931.521.11
4-2-3-111 22%2.452.00.731.541.13
4-2-2-28 16%0.750.630.881.921.08
4-4-25 10%2.42.41.61.131.07
4-1-4-13 6%1.672.00.672.480.61

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-4-31 2%3.03.00.01.470.12

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.95Home 48% P 49%3.4Draw 27% P 27%3.8Away 25% P 24%

Double Chance

1.25Middlesbrough or Draw 38% P 38%1.3Middlesbrough or Derby 36% P 36%1.8Draw or Derby 26% P 26%

Draw No Bet

1.41 66%2.752 34%

Both Teams To Score

1.83Yes 50% P 52%1.83No 50% P 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 46%1.72Under 55% P 54%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54%2.0Under 46%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 22.5–25% · 808 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home49%49%47%-1.9
Draw27%28%29%+1.7
Away24%24%24%+0.3

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 48%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.546%46%45%-1.2

James Linington

Career
298 matches · 17 seasons
Cards / match
3.82 (3.69 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
20.7 · 4.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.24
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 103 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.324.05+0.4969
Fouls / match22.021.8+0.11
Fouls per card5.15.4-0.61 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.220.17+0.6280
Time added7.27.2-0.0247
First card
33' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 33% in last 15'
Cards to home side
42% (league 45%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-22 10 170 90'5
2025-11-04 50 190 11'6
2025-10-25 30 150 30'7
2025-10-21 30 200 15'8
2025-10-04 20 150 38'6
2025-05-03 60 160 22'7
2025-04-26 60 240 8'6
2025-04-18 · Derby County 40 220 29'10
2025-04-05 50 140 52'7
2025-03-08 41 141 14'10