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Championship · Matchweek 18
Stoke CityStoke City
1–2
FT
Hull CityHull City

Momentum

– Stoke CityHull City –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
18

Venue

Stadium
Bet365 Stadium, Stoke
Capacity
30,089
Surface
grass
Attendance
22,331

Teams

Coaches
Mark Robins · Sergej Jakirović
Position
2 · 11
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-4-2

Referee

Joshua Smith

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
5.9° (feels 2.1°)
Wind
5.8
Humidity
91%

Where to watch · 191

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Stoke City

WWLLW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 12 GA 4 · xG 7.78–5.94 · xPts 8.06

  • W H Charlton Athletic 3–0 xG 1.2–0.39 UK CHAMP
  • L A Leicester City 1–2 xG 0.96–1.25 UK CHAMP
  • L H Coventry City 0–1 xG 1.09–1.43 UK CHAMP
  • W A Oxford United 3–0 xG 2.49–1.76 UK CHAMP
  • W H Bristol City 5–1 xG 2.04–1.1 UK CHAMP

Hull City

WLWLL 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 8 GA 9 · xG 7.07–9.78 · xPts 5.72

  • L H Ipswich Town 0–2 xG 0.62–2.23 UK CHAMP
  • L A Queens Park Rangers 2–3 xG 1.41–3.41 UK CHAMP
  • W H Portsmouth 3–2 xG 2.01–1.12 UK CHAMP
  • L A Derby County 1–2 xG 1.21–0.74 UK CHAMP
  • W A Norwich City 2–0 xG 1.83–2.28 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 30 matches since 2005

Stoke City 167 draws7 Hull City

Goals 43–26 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 37%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Stoke City 61 draws3 Hull City

Goals 15–9 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Stoke City 30 draws2 Hull City

Goals 7–6 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Hull City 0–1 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Stoke City 1–2 Hull City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Hull City 1–2 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Stoke City 1–3 Hull City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Hull City 0–2 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Stoke City 1–3 Hull City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Stoke City 0–0 Hull City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Hull City 0–3 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Hull City 0–2 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 2–0 Hull City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricStoke City all · 46Stoke City at home · 23Hull City all · 49Hull City away · 24
Results
Matches46234924
Points per game1.201.431.631.58
W / D / L15 / 10 / 219 / 6 / 823 / 11 / 1511 / 5 / 8
Goals for / match1.111.481.491.54
Goals against / match1.221.221.351.33
Clean sheets28%26%29%29%
Failed to score37%22%18%12%
Both teams scored44%61%61%62%
Over 2.544%56%61%67%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.241.441.371.27
xG against / match1.431.191.661.91
xG difference-0.190.26-0.29-0.63
Finishing vs xG-0.130.030.120.27
xPts / match1.281.551.251.09
Points vs xPts-0.08-0.120.380.49
Game state
Scored first44%52%57%67%
PPG when scoring first2.252.172.182.00
PPG when conceding first0.270.560.880.71
Came back from behind22%38%35%33%
Leads held71%69%72%65%
Minutes leading24%31%30%32%
Minutes level50%48%53%52%
Minutes trailing27%21%17%16%
First goal (min)37343233
First goal conceded (min)44474044
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half55%50%45%49%
Goals conceded in 2nd half62%75%52%62%
Late goals for (76'+)0.150.260.270.33
Late goals against0.350.350.310.38
Style
Possession52%53%45%43%
Shots11.212.711.111.0
On target3.84.74.14.3
Shot conversion10%12%13%14%
Shots inside box65%67%68%68%
Big chances created1.82.12.22.3
Corners6.06.44.44.6
xG from set plays28%34%21%13%
Goals from headers16%15%14%19%
Pressure index13.316.39.37.6
Dominant minutes52.757.339.832.6
Pass accuracy78%79%72%71%
Fouls10.410.611.211.5
Cards2.302.262.553.04

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Stoke City

0–15'88
16–30'55
31–45'108
46–60'1314
61–75'85
76–90'716

Hull City

0–15'117
16–30'1413
31–45'1512
46–60'910
61–75'119
76–90'1315

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Stoke City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.80

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.107
Early press (0-15, level)+0.177
Late push (76+, level)-0.442
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.453

Game state

When ahead+0.166
When level+0.057
When behind+0.113
10 min after conceding-0.265
10 min after scoring+0.807

Situations

At home-0.273
Away+0.314
3 days rest or fewer-0.222
4+ days rest+0.255

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.154
v bottom-tier opponents+0.543
Evenly matched+0.362
As underdog-0.074

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.016
Conceded late (76+)+0.326

Congested vs rested -0.47 · Ahead vs level +0.10 · Behind vs level +0.05

Hull City · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.42) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.57

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.424
Early press (0-15, level)-0.574
Late push (76+, level)-0.503

Game state

When ahead-0.363
When level-0.444
10 min after scoring+0.133

Situations

At home-0.452
Away-0.392
4+ days rest-0.424

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.393
As underdog-0.424

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.364
Conceded when ahead+0.583
Conceded late (76+)+0.274

Ahead vs level +0.08 · Behind vs level -0.08

Stoke City

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-141 89%1.241.11.151.21.34
3-4-2-13 6%1.331.331.331.762.14
4-4-22 4%0.01.02.51.292.17

Hull City

Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 2 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-136 74%1.641.611.441.491.76
3-4-2-16 12%1.51.01.171.091.37
4-4-22 4%3.01.50.51.091.08
3-4-1-22 4%0.51.52.01.251.52
4-3-31 2%1.00.00.00.561.69

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.72Home 55% P 55%3.6Draw 26% P 25%5.0Away 19% P 19%

Double Chance

1.18Stoke or Draw 40% P 40%1.28Stoke or Hull 37% P 37%2.0Draw or Hull 23% P 22%

Draw No Bet

1.281 73%3.52 27%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 51% P 54%1.9No 49% P 46%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 53%1.9Under 50% P 47%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.756 - 8 23%2.629 - 11 33%3.612 - 14 24%7.0Over 14 12%

Number of Cards

3.51.9Over 49% P 49%1.8Under 51% P 51%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 55–57.5% · away 17.5–20% · 762 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home55%56%53%-2.8
Draw25%25%26%+1.0
Away19%19%21%+1.8

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 52%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes54%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,940 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.553%54%54%+0.8

Joshua Smith

Career
156 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.09 (3.95 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
22.1 · 5.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.2
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 122 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.34.05+0.4563
Fouls / match22.121.8+0.21
Fouls per card5.35.4-0.42 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.20.17+0.2667
Time added6.97.2-0.3735
First card
35' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-22 20 170 49'5
2025-11-01 · Hull City 30 200 28'7
2025-10-25 20 200 75'7
2025-10-18 40 250 34'8
2025-09-30 · Hull City 10 200 51'6
2025-09-22 10 200 30'7
2025-08-29 60 270 45'14
2025-08-23 · Stoke City 61 180 25'12
2025-08-09 –– 20– –7
2025-03-12 · Hull City 61 200 45'7