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Championship · Matchweek 19
WatfordWatford
3–2
FT
Norwich CityNorwich City

Momentum

– WatfordNorwich City –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
19

Venue

Stadium
Vicarage Road, Watford
Capacity
22,200
Surface
grass
Attendance
18,871

Teams

Coaches
Javier Gracia Carlos · Philippe Clement
Position
15 · 23
Formation
4-4-2 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Tom Nield

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
11.1° (feels 10.6°)
Wind
6.2
Humidity
89%

Where to watch · 178

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Watford

DDWDL 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 7 GA 7 · xG 6.35–4.88 · xPts 8.01

  • L A Birmingham City 1–2 xG 1.37–1.34 UK CHAMP
  • D H Preston North End 1–1 xG 1.95–0.59 UK CHAMP
  • W A Derby County 3–2 xG 1.6–0.4 UK CHAMP
  • D H Bristol City 1–1 xG 1.08–0.63 UK CHAMP
  • D A Ipswich Town 1–1 xG 0.35–1.92 UK CHAMP

Norwich City

DLLDW 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 7 GA 9 · xG 6.36–8.29 · xPts 5.67

  • W H Queens Park Rangers 3–1 xG 1.38–1.94 UK CHAMP
  • D H Oxford United 1–1 xG 1.53–0.93 UK CHAMP
  • L A Birmingham City 1–4 xG 1.77–2.78 UK CHAMP
  • L H Leicester City 1–2 xG 0.37–1.31 UK CHAMP
  • D A Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 xG 1.32–1.33 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 26 matches since 2005

Watford 162 draws8 Norwich City

Goals 42–41 · 3.19 per match · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 65%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Watford 60 draws4 Norwich City

Goals 16–18 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Watford 20 draws3 Norwich City

Goals 7–11 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Norwich City 0–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 3–2 Norwich City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 0–1 Norwich City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Norwich City 4–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Norwich City 4–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 3–2 Norwich City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Norwich City 0–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Watford 2–1 Norwich City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 0–3 Norwich City UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Norwich City 1–3 Watford UK PL · Regular Season
MetricWatford all · 46Watford at home · 23Norwich City all · 46Norwich City away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.241.611.411.52
W / D / L14 / 15 / 1710 / 7 / 619 / 8 / 1910 / 5 / 8
Goals for / match1.151.301.371.57
Goals against / match1.411.171.221.22
Clean sheets15%22%20%22%
Failed to score30%30%20%13%
Both teams scored59%52%61%65%
Over 2.548%44%48%52%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.341.501.351.30
xG against / match1.251.151.461.64
xG difference0.100.34-0.10-0.35
Finishing vs xG-0.19-0.190.020.27
xPts / match1.431.571.351.23
Points vs xPts-0.200.040.060.29
Game state
Scored first26%30%52%56%
PPG when scoring first2.332.712.082.08
PPG when conceding first0.841.130.680.80
Came back from behind47%60%27%33%
Leads held67%91%68%67%
Minutes leading18%25%28%32%
Minutes level49%48%48%42%
Minutes trailing34%27%24%26%
First goal (min)48424236
First goal conceded (min)34364641
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%50%57%56%
Goals conceded in 2nd half48%52%59%54%
Late goals for (76'+)0.300.300.260.30
Late goals against0.280.220.300.30
Style
Possession51%52%54%52%
Shots13.815.712.611.5
On target4.45.44.54.4
Shot conversion8%8%11%14%
Shots inside box58%57%64%66%
Big chances created2.12.42.32.1
Corners4.95.45.35.0
xG from set plays27%23%25%23%
Goals from headers14%17%10%11%
Pressure index10.912.412.510.8
Dominant minutes47.052.253.247.7
Pass accuracy80%81%79%78%
Fouls11.011.110.210.4
Cards2.151.871.932.30

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Norwich City

0–15'78
16–30'87
31–45'128
46–60'913
61–75'156
76–90'1214

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Watford · 8 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.12) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.128
Early press (0-15, level)-0.178
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.264

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.198
When behind-0.055
10 min after conceding-0.218
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away-0.014
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.186

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.203
As underdog-0.126

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.308
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)+0.068

Congested vs rested +0.24 · Ahead vs level +0.04 · Behind vs level +0.14

Norwich City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.66

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.027
Early press (0-15, level)-0.197
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.364

Game state

When ahead+0.124
When level-0.147
When behind-0.054
10 min after conceding-0.277
10 min after scoring+0.665

Situations

At home-0.213
Away+0.114
3 days rest or fewer+0.082
4+ days rest-0.065

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.025
v bottom-tier opponents-0.142
As favourite-0.144
Evenly matched+0.142

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.027
Conceded when ahead-0.134
Conceded late (76+)-0.146

Congested vs rested +0.14 · Ahead vs level +0.27 · Behind vs level +0.10

Watford

Current: winless 2 · conceding 15

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Norwich City

Current: winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-138 83%1.451.391.181.291.43
3-4-2-15 11%1.41.41.21.551.6
3-4-32 4%0.01.02.51.911.56
3-2-4-11 2%3.01.00.01.861.51

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.75Home 53% P 54%3.9Draw 24% P 23%4.1Away 23% P 23%

Double Chance

1.22Watford or Draw 39% P 39%1.25Watford or Norwich 38% P 38%2.0Draw or Norwich 24% P 23%

Draw No Bet

1.331 71%3.252 29%

Both Teams To Score

1.61Yes 58% P 59%2.2No 42% P 41%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.61Over 59% P 58%2.3Under 41% P 42%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 23%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 52.5–55% · away 22.5–25% · 134 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home54%53%58%+4.7
Draw23%23%22%-1.6
Away23%23%20%-3.1

In those fixtures: 3.1 goals a game · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 54%

Both teams to score · yes 57.5–60% · 1,955 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes59%59%60%+1.5

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.558%59%60%+0.8

Tom Nield

Career
79 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
3.9 (3.86 yellow · 0.03 red)
Fouls / match
23.7 · 5.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.17
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 62 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.114.05+0.1057
Fouls / match23.321.8+1.25
Fouls per card5.85.4+0.29 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.140.17-0.4520
Time added7.67.2+0.4463
First card
37' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
43% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-29 30 240 32'6
2025-11-25 20 260 31'10
2025-11-08 40 200 62'11
2025-11-01 10 210 23'7
2025-10-18 · Norwich City 50 250 18'4
2025-09-27 60 250 8'8
2025-09-13 20 280 7'7
2025-08-23 60 370 12'6
2025-08-16 90 270 27'10
2025-04-12 10 310 88'2