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Championship · Matchweek 20
Derby CountyDerby County
1–1
FT
MillwallMillwall

Momentum

– Derby CountyMillwall –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
20

Venue

Stadium
Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Capacity
33,597
Surface
grass
Attendance
24,424

Teams

Coaches
John Eustace · Alex Neil
Position
15 · 3
Formation
3-4-1-2 · 4-1-4-1

Referee

Thomas Kirk

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
9.3° (feels 6.0°)
Wind
7.2
Humidity
77%

Where to watch · 178

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Derby County

WLWLL 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 8 GA 10 · xG 4.45–6.52 · xPts 5.32

  • L H Leicester City 1–3 xG 1.31–1.22 UK CHAMP
  • L A Middlesbrough 1–2 xG 0.84–1.63 UK CHAMP
  • W A Swansea City 2–1 xG 1.11–0.91 UK CHAMP
  • L H Watford 2–3 xG 0.4–1.6 UK CHAMP
  • W A Blackburn Rovers 2–1 xG 0.79–1.15 UK CHAMP

Millwall

DLWWW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 7 GA 6 · xG 9.29–6.1 · xPts 8.41

  • W A Bristol City 1–0 xG 1.1–1.71 UK CHAMP
  • W H Southampton 3–2 xG 2.35–1.58 UK CHAMP
  • W H Sheffield Wednesday 1–0 xG 3.54–0.72 UK CHAMP
  • L A Portsmouth 1–3 xG 0.76–1.35 UK CHAMP
  • D H Preston North End 1–1 xG 1.53–0.74 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 28 matches since 2006

Derby County 710 draws11 Millwall

Goals 29–27 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 43% · over 2.5 32%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Derby County 23 draws5 Millwall

Goals 8–11 · 1.9 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 20%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Derby County 02 draws3 Millwall

Goals 3–6 · 1.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 20%

Recent meetings

  • L Millwall 1–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 1–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 0–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Millwall 1–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 1–2 Millwall neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Millwall 1–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 0–1 Millwall neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 0–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Millwall 2–3 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 0–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricDerby County all · 46Derby County at home · 23Millwall all · 48Millwall away · 24
Results
Matches46234824
Points per game1.501.571.751.75
W / D / L20 / 9 / 1710 / 6 / 724 / 12 / 1211 / 9 / 4
Goals for / match1.461.351.331.29
Goals against / match1.281.171.061.00
Clean sheets26%30%40%33%
Failed to score9%4%21%21%
Both teams scored65%65%48%58%
Over 2.552%39%46%42%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.231.271.501.38
xG against / match1.321.111.331.51
xG difference-0.090.160.18-0.13
Finishing vs xG0.230.07-0.17-0.08
xPts / match1.331.471.471.30
Points vs xPts0.170.090.280.45
Game state
Scored first54%52%52%46%
PPG when scoring first2.242.332.602.64
PPG when conceding first0.620.730.791.00
Came back from behind35%46%43%60%
Leads held69%71%86%85%
Minutes leading30%29%27%20%
Minutes level46%46%56%61%
Minutes trailing24%25%17%18%
First goal (min)40454451
First goal conceded (min)40364342
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half52%55%61%71%
Goals conceded in 2nd half58%48%67%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.260.350.38
Late goals against0.300.260.350.25
Style
Possession44%48%48%46%
Shots11.011.912.912.3
On target3.63.74.23.8
Shot conversion13%11%10%10%
Shots inside box70%65%68%65%
Big chances created2.22.32.32.2
Corners4.55.55.75.2
xG from set plays39%44%33%30%
Goals from headers28%32%16%13%
Pressure index10.111.611.99.1
Dominant minutes39.945.744.439.2
Pass accuracy73%77%70%69%
Fouls12.311.912.614.4
Cards2.632.301.902.42

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Derby County

0–15'811
16–30'95
31–45'159
46–60'135
61–75'1015
76–90'1214

Millwall

0–15'66
16–30'96
31–45'105
46–60'1112
61–75'115
76–90'1717

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.297
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Millwall · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.01) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.54

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.017
Early press (0-15, level)+0.217

Game state

When ahead+0.045
When level+0.017
When behind-0.133
10 min after conceding-0.344
10 min after scoring+0.546

Situations

Against ten men-0.122
At home+0.043
Away-0.044
3 days rest or fewer-0.322
4+ days rest+0.135

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.054
v bottom-tier opponents-0.073
Evenly matched+0.104
As underdog-0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.275
Conceded late (76+)-0.035

Congested vs rested -0.45 · Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level -0.14

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-124 52%1.621.461.131.481.25
3-4-2-111 24%1.821.551.180.921.35
3-4-1-25 11%1.21.41.61.031.95
4-4-24 9%0.251.02.250.831.09
3-5-21 2%0.01.02.00.841.63

Millwall

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-140 83%1.81.41.081.541.27
4-4-24 8%1.750.750.751.480.88
4-4-1-12 4%0.51.01.51.252.23
4-1-4-11 2%1.01.01.01.11.34
4-3-1-21 2%3.02.01.01.073.62

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.75Home 34% P 35%3.1Draw 31% P 30%2.7Away 35% P 35%

Double Chance

1.44Derby or Draw 32% P 32%1.36Derby or Millwall 34% P 35%1.4Draw or Millwall 33% P 33%

Draw No Bet

1.831 50%1.832 50%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 49% P 50%1.8No 51% P 50%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.3Over 41% P 42%1.61Under 59% P 58%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54%2.0Under 46%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 35–37.5% · 691 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home35%34%34%+0.5
Draw30%30%27%-2.5
Away35%36%38%+2.0

In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 45%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes50%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 40–42.5% · 2,093 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.542%41%41%-0.4

Thomas Kirk

Career
51 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
4.55 (4.39 yellow · 0.04 red)
Fouls / match
22.1 · 4.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.26
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 34 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.444.05+0.7074
Fouls / match21.721.8-0.12
Fouls per card4.95.4-0.98 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.210.17+0.3974
Time added8.07.2+0.9178
First card
35' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 38% in last 15'
Cards to home side
41% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-03 –– 17– –8
2025-11-26 30 190 28'8
2025-11-08 · Derby County 40 171 14'7
2025-10-25 50 230 35'9
2025-10-22 40 120 72'9
2025-10-05 40 240 38'7
2025-10-04 30 211 71'8
2025-09-27 51 230 34'12
2025-09-13 40 200 8'10
2025-08-30 · Millwall 40 230 64'13