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Championship · Matchweek 20
Ipswich TownIpswich Town
1–0
FT
Stoke CityStoke City

Momentum

– Ipswich TownStoke City –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
20

Venue

Stadium
Portman Road Stadium, Ipswich
Capacity
29,673
Surface
grass
Attendance
27,008

Teams

Coaches
Kieran McKenna · Mark Robins
Position
5 · 7
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Adam Herczeg

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
9.0° (feels 6.2°)
Wind
5.1
Humidity
83%

Where to watch · 178

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Ipswich Town

DWLDW 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 7 GA 3 · xG 7.26–3.34 · xPts 9.55

  • W H Coventry City 3–0 xG 1.0–0.63 UK CHAMP
  • D A Blackburn Rovers 1–1 xG 0.76–0.91 UK CHAMP
  • L A Oxford United 1–2 xG 1.76–1.13 UK CHAMP
  • W A Hull City 2–0 xG 2.23–0.62 UK CHAMP
  • D H Wrexham 0–0 xG 1.52–0.06 UK CHAMP

Stoke City

LLWLL 1W 0D 4L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 5 GA 9 · xG 4.65–6.46 · xPts 6.08

  • L A Sheffield United 0–4 xG 0.37–2.67 UK CHAMP
  • L H Hull City 1–2 xG 1.03–0.72 UK CHAMP
  • W H Charlton Athletic 3–0 xG 1.2–0.39 UK CHAMP
  • L A Leicester City 1–2 xG 0.96–1.25 UK CHAMP
  • L H Coventry City 0–1 xG 1.09–1.43 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 12 matches since 2006

Ipswich Town 26 draws4 Stoke City

Goals 11–15 · 2.17 per match · BTTS 42% · over 2.5 25%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Ipswich Town 25 draws3 Stoke City

Goals 8–9 · 1.7 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 10%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Ipswich Town 23 draws0 Stoke City

Goals 7–4 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 20%

Recent meetings

  • D Stoke City 3–3 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Ipswich Town 1–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Stoke City 0–0 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Ipswich Town 2–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Ipswich Town 1–1 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Stoke City 2–0 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Stoke City 1–0 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Ipswich Town 1–1 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Stoke City 0–0 Ipswich Town UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Ipswich Town 0–1 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricIpswich Town all · 46Ipswich Town at home · 23Stoke City all · 46Stoke City away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.832.171.200.96
W / D / L23 / 15 / 814 / 8 / 115 / 10 / 216 / 4 / 13
Goals for / match1.741.871.110.74
Goals against / match1.020.741.221.22
Clean sheets37%44%28%30%
Failed to score13%9%37%52%
Both teams scored56%52%44%26%
Over 2.552%56%44%30%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.832.071.241.03
xG against / match1.030.841.431.67
xG difference0.801.23-0.19-0.63
Finishing vs xG-0.09-0.20-0.13-0.30
xPts / match1.882.161.281.01
Points vs xPts-0.060.02-0.08-0.05
Game state
Scored first54%70%44%35%
PPG when scoring first2.682.622.252.38
PPG when conceding first0.781.170.270.08
Came back from behind60%86%22%7%
Leads held79%82%71%75%
Minutes leading33%45%24%16%
Minutes level50%48%50%51%
Minutes trailing17%8%27%32%
First goal (min)40323742
First goal conceded (min)40464440
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half59%44%55%65%
Goals conceded in 2nd half51%59%62%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.500.480.150.04
Late goals against0.130.040.350.35
Style
Possession56%56%52%51%
Shots15.116.511.29.8
On target5.15.73.82.8
Shot conversion12%11%10%8%
Shots inside box67%68%65%62%
Big chances created2.83.51.81.4
Corners5.76.26.05.6
xG from set plays32%29%28%19%
Goals from headers12%5%16%19%
Pressure index18.820.713.310.2
Dominant minutes62.366.752.748.2
Pass accuracy81%81%78%78%
Fouls11.210.310.410.2
Cards1.931.392.302.35

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Ipswich Town

0–15'124
16–30'56
31–45'1613
46–60'149
61–75'109
76–90'236

Stoke City

0–15'88
16–30'55
31–45'108
46–60'1314
61–75'85
76–90'716

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Ipswich Town · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.25) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.254
Early press (0-15, level)-0.494
Late push (76+, level)-0.762

Game state

When ahead+0.003
When level-0.364
When behind-0.233
10 min after conceding-0.444
10 min after scoring+0.143

Situations

At home-0.202
Away-0.302
4+ days rest-0.254

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.202
v mid-tier opponents-0.282
As underdog-0.263

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.034
Conceded when ahead-0.363
Conceded late (76+)-0.123

Ahead vs level +0.36 · Behind vs level +0.12

Stoke City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.80

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.107
Early press (0-15, level)+0.177
Late push (76+, level)-0.442
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.453

Game state

When ahead+0.166
When level+0.057
When behind+0.113
10 min after conceding-0.265
10 min after scoring+0.807

Situations

At home-0.273
Away+0.314
3 days rest or fewer-0.222
4+ days rest+0.255

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.154
v bottom-tier opponents+0.543
Evenly matched+0.362
As underdog-0.074

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.016
Conceded late (76+)+0.326

Congested vs rested -0.47 · Ahead vs level +0.10 · Behind vs level +0.05

Ipswich Town

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-145 98%1.841.761.021.841.03
4-4-1-11 2%1.01.01.01.271.19

Stoke City

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-141 89%1.241.11.151.21.34
3-4-2-13 6%1.331.331.331.762.14
4-4-22 4%0.01.02.51.292.17

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.55Home 61% P 62%4.0Draw 24% P 23%6.0Away 16% P 15%

Double Chance

1.12Ipswich or Draw 42% P 42%1.22Ipswich or Stoke 38% P 39%2.37Draw or Stoke 20% P 19%

Draw No Bet

1.181 79%4.52 21%

Both Teams To Score

2.1Yes 44% P 45%1.66No 56% P 55%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 47%1.8Under 53% P 53%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 60–62.5% · away 15–17.5% · 649 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home62%61%62%+0.4
Draw23%23%23%+0.7
Away15%16%15%-1.1

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 58%

Both teams to score · yes 45–47.5% · 2,102 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes45%46%47%+0.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.547%46%45%-1.2

Adam Herczeg

Career
41 matches · 6 seasons
Cards / match
3.66 (3.54 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
21.8 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.12
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 34 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.914.05-0.2645
Fouls / match22.321.8+0.38
Fouls per card5.75.4+0.22 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.150.17-0.4422
Time added7.97.2+0.7974
First card
37' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-01 50 210 20'6
2025-11-26 30 200 22'10
2025-11-04 71 291 49'9
2025-10-25 40 250 45'8
2025-10-18 60 190 33'12
2025-10-04 20 120 45'11
2025-09-30 70 331 36'8
2025-08-23 30 230 28'7
2025-08-09 50 200 35'7
2025-03-15 10 250 13'9