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Championship · Matchweek 21
Stoke CityStoke City
2–1
FT
Swansea CitySwansea City

Momentum

– Stoke CitySwansea City –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
21

Venue

Stadium
Bet365 Stadium, Stoke
Capacity
30,089
Surface
grass
Attendance
23,089

Teams

Coaches
Mark Robins · Vítor Matos
Position
8 · 18
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Ruebyn Ricardo

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
6.3° (feels 2.4°)
Wind
6.3
Humidity
93%

Where to watch · 178

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Stoke City

LWLLL 1W 0D 4L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 5 GA 9 · xG 4.11–6.1 · xPts 5.85

  • L A Ipswich Town 0–1 xG 0.54–1.07 UK CHAMP
  • L A Sheffield United 0–4 xG 0.37–2.67 UK CHAMP
  • L H Hull City 1–2 xG 1.03–0.72 UK CHAMP
  • W H Charlton Athletic 3–0 xG 1.2–0.39 UK CHAMP
  • L A Leicester City 1–2 xG 0.96–1.25 UK CHAMP

Swansea City

LLLWW 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 6 GA 8 · xG 4.23–7.26 · xPts 4.91

  • W H Portsmouth 1–0 xG 0.95–0.61 UK CHAMP
  • W H Oxford United 2–0 xG 1.08–1.63 UK CHAMP
  • L A West Bromwich Albion 2–3 xG 0.16–1.95 UK CHAMP
  • L H Derby County 1–2 xG 0.91–1.11 UK CHAMP
  • L A Bristol City 0–3 xG 1.12–1.96 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 31 matches since 2011

Stoke City 156 draws10 Swansea City

Goals 45–40 · 2.74 per match · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 55%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Stoke City 43 draws3 Swansea City

Goals 14–12 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Stoke City 21 draws2 Swansea City

Goals 6–6 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Stoke City 1–2 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Swansea City 2–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 2–1 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 3–1 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Swansea City 0–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Swansea City 3–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Stoke City 1–1 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Swansea City 1–3 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Stoke City 1–1 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 3–0 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricStoke City all · 46Stoke City at home · 23Swansea City all · 46Swansea City away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.201.431.391.09
W / D / L15 / 10 / 219 / 6 / 818 / 10 / 187 / 4 / 12
Goals for / match1.111.481.241.00
Goals against / match1.221.221.281.39
Clean sheets28%26%26%22%
Failed to score37%22%22%35%
Both teams scored44%61%54%48%
Over 2.544%56%50%48%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.241.441.221.10
xG against / match1.431.191.371.37
xG difference-0.190.26-0.15-0.27
Finishing vs xG-0.130.030.02-0.10
xPts / match1.281.551.281.19
Points vs xPts-0.08-0.120.12-0.11
Game state
Scored first44%52%48%35%
PPG when scoring first2.252.172.362.38
PPG when conceding first0.270.560.480.36
Came back from behind22%38%28%20%
Leads held71%69%72%78%
Minutes leading24%31%25%22%
Minutes level50%48%48%47%
Minutes trailing27%21%27%31%
First goal (min)37344643
First goal conceded (min)44474042
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half55%50%65%65%
Goals conceded in 2nd half62%75%52%59%
Late goals for (76'+)0.150.260.350.26
Late goals against0.350.350.300.30
Style
Possession52%53%55%54%
Shots11.212.712.311.0
On target3.84.73.94.0
Shot conversion10%12%10%9%
Shots inside box65%67%58%56%
Big chances created1.82.11.71.8
Corners6.06.44.54.0
xG from set plays28%34%36%36%
Goals from headers16%15%13%9%
Pressure index13.316.312.810.5
Dominant minutes52.757.351.945.9
Pass accuracy78%79%79%79%
Fouls10.410.69.810.6
Cards2.302.262.002.09

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Stoke City

0–15'88
16–30'55
31–45'108
46–60'1314
61–75'85
76–90'716

Swansea City

0–15'66
16–30'86
31–45'616
46–60'1011
61–75'116
76–90'1614

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Stoke City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.80

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.107
Early press (0-15, level)+0.177
Late push (76+, level)-0.442
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.453

Game state

When ahead+0.166
When level+0.057
When behind+0.113
10 min after conceding-0.265
10 min after scoring+0.807

Situations

At home-0.273
Away+0.314
3 days rest or fewer-0.222
4+ days rest+0.255

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.154
v bottom-tier opponents+0.543
Evenly matched+0.362
As underdog-0.074

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.016
Conceded late (76+)+0.326

Congested vs rested -0.47 · Ahead vs level +0.10 · Behind vs level +0.05

Swansea City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.047
Early press (0-15, level)+0.097
Late push (76+, level)-0.222

Game state

When ahead+0.214
When level-0.097
When behind-0.102
10 min after conceding-0.093
10 min after scoring+0.355

Situations

At home-0.024
Away+0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.092
4+ days rest+0.095

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.083
v bottom-tier opponents+0.134
As favourite+0.002
Evenly matched+0.114

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.017
Conceded when ahead-0.074
Conceded late (76+)-0.237

Congested vs rested -0.18 · Ahead vs level +0.30 · Behind vs level -0.01

Stoke City

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-141 89%1.241.11.151.21.34
3-4-2-13 6%1.331.331.331.762.14
4-4-22 4%0.01.02.51.292.17

Swansea City

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-122 48%1.321.231.411.191.3
4-1-4-111 24%1.821.360.731.351.38
4-3-37 15%1.431.141.141.131.33
3-4-2-12 4%0.01.03.00.80.88
4-4-1-11 2%3.01.00.00.611.68

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.1Home 45% P 45%3.2Draw 29% P 29%3.6Away 26% P 26%

Double Chance

1.28Stoke or Draw 37% P 37%1.36Stoke or Swansea 35% P 36%1.7Draw or Swansea 28% P 28%

Draw No Bet

1.51 62%2.52 38%

Both Teams To Score

2.0Yes 46% P 47%1.72No 54% P 53%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.3Over 41% P 41%1.61Under 59% P 59%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

4.52.2Over 42% P 43%1.61Under 58% P 57%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 45–47.5% · away 25–27.5% · 853 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home45%46%44%-1.8
Draw29%28%30%+1.8
Away26%26%26%+0.0

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 48%

Both teams to score · yes 45–47.5% · 2,102 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes47%46%47%+0.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 40–42.5% · 2,093 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.541%41%41%-0.4

Ruebyn Ricardo

Career
36 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
4.47 (4.36 yellow · 0.03 red)
Fouls / match
21.8 · 4.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.17
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 26 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.384.05+2.4198
Fouls / match22.621.8+0.67
Fouls per card4.55.4-1.52 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.150.17-0.3435
Time added7.57.2+0.3357
First card
34' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 30% in last 15'
Cards to home side
42% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-26 30 180 41'6
2025-11-08 40 240 34'8
2025-11-01 60 250 50'10
2025-10-18 111 211 16'12
2025-10-04 · Stoke City 30 140 36'6
2025-10-01 40 230 74'6
2025-09-20 50 150 17'7
2025-09-13 30 180 59'8
2025-08-30 30 230 49'4
2025-04-12 90 311 6'3