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Championship · Matchweek 21
WrexhamWrexham
2–2
FT
WatfordWatford

Momentum

– WrexhamWatford –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
21

Venue

Stadium
Racecourse Ground, Racecourse Ground
Capacity
10,771
Surface
grass
Attendance
10,667

Teams

Coaches
Phil Parkinson · Javier Gracia Carlos
Position
15 · 12
Formation
3-1-4-2 · 4-4-2

Referee

Jacob Miles

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
9.3° (feels 6.6°)
Wind
5.1
Humidity
77%

Where to watch · 254

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Coventry City 4628117 974552 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich Town 4623158 804733 84 DWDDW
3 Millwall 46241111 644915 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46221410 825626 80 WWDDW
5 Middlesbrough 46221410 724725 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46211015 70664 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46191413 69654 71 LWWLD
8 Derby County 4620917 67598 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich City 4619819 63567 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham City 46171316 57561 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea City 46181018 5759-2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46171118 59590 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield United 4618622 66660 60 WWLLW
14 Preston North End 46151516 5562-7 60 WLLWL
15 Queens Park Rangers 46161020 6173-12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46141517 5365-12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46151021 5156-5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46141319 4964-15 55 WWLWD
19 Charlton Athletic 46131419 4458-14 53 LDLWL
20 Blackburn Rovers 46131320 4256-14 52 DLDWL
21 West Bromwich Albion (-2) 46131419 4858-10 51 DWWDL
22 Oxford United 46111421 4559-14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester City (-6) 46121618 5868-10 46 LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday (-18) 4621232 2989-60 0 DDLLW
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Wrexham

DWDDL 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 4 GA 4 · xG 5.64–9.62 · xPts 4.5

  • L A Hull City 0–2 xG 1.22–3.16 UK CHAMP
  • D A Preston North End 1–1 xG 1.36–2.33 UK CHAMP
  • D H Blackburn Rovers 1–1 xG 2.13–1.48 UK CHAMP
  • W H Bristol City 2–0 xG 0.87–1.14 UK CHAMP
  • D A Ipswich Town 0–0 xG 0.06–1.52 UK CHAMP

Watford

WDLWD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 9 GA 8 · xG 8.98–4.72 · xPts 9.61

  • D H Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 xG 2.73–0.63 UK CHAMP
  • W H Norwich City 3–2 xG 1.33–1.76 UK CHAMP
  • L A Birmingham City 1–2 xG 1.37–1.34 UK CHAMP
  • D H Preston North End 1–1 xG 1.95–0.59 UK CHAMP
  • W A Derby County 3–2 xG 1.6–0.4 UK CHAMP

All meetings · 3 matches since 2025

Wrexham 02 draws1 Watford

Goals 4–6 · 3.33 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 67%

Last 10 · 3 matches

Wrexham 02 draws1 Watford

Goals 4–6 · 3.33 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 67%

Last 5 · 3 matches

Wrexham 02 draws1 Watford

Goals 4–6 · 3.33 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 67%

Recent meetings

  • D Wrexham 1–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Watford 3–1 Wrexham UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Wrexham 2–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricWrexham all · 46Wrexham at home · 23Watford all · 46Watford away · 23
Results
Matches46234623
Points per game1.541.611.240.87
W / D / L19 / 14 / 1310 / 7 / 614 / 15 / 174 / 8 / 11
Goals for / match1.501.781.151.00
Goals against / match1.411.611.411.65
Clean sheets26%22%15%9%
Failed to score13%4%30%30%
Both teams scored65%74%59%65%
Over 2.550%56%48%52%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.221.541.341.19
xG against / match1.481.281.251.34
xG difference-0.260.260.10-0.15
Finishing vs xG0.280.24-0.19-0.19
xPts / match1.221.541.431.30
Points vs xPts0.320.07-0.20-0.43
Game state
Scored first52%56%26%22%
PPG when scoring first2.082.232.331.80
PPG when conceding first0.950.800.840.59
Came back from behind46%50%47%35%
Leads held63%62%67%40%
Minutes leading31%30%18%10%
Minutes level46%43%49%50%
Minutes trailing23%26%34%40%
First goal (min)37384853
First goal conceded (min)40373432
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%49%58%70%
Goals conceded in 2nd half55%51%48%45%
Late goals for (76'+)0.370.480.300.30
Late goals against0.410.350.280.35
Style
Possession48%51%51%51%
Shots11.314.113.812.0
On target3.84.84.43.5
Shot conversion13%13%8%8%
Shots inside box66%68%58%58%
Big chances created2.32.82.12.0
Corners4.55.24.94.4
xG from set plays32%36%27%31%
Goals from headers29%38%14%9%
Pressure index10.113.110.99.5
Dominant minutes41.951.347.041.8
Pass accuracy78%80%80%79%
Fouls9.78.811.010.8
Cards1.591.262.152.43

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Wrexham

0–15'98
16–30'119
31–45'1212
46–60'138
61–75'79
76–90'1719

Watford

0–15'59
16–30'613
31–45'1112
46–60'910
61–75'88
76–90'1413

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Wrexham · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.02) · stands out: v bottom-tier opponents +0.16

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.027
Early press (0-15, level)-0.137
Late push (76+, level)-0.044

Game state

When ahead+0.122
When level+0.017
When behind-0.034
10 min after conceding-0.135
10 min after scoring+0.135

Situations

At home+0.053
Away+0.004
3 days rest or fewer+0.073
4+ days rest-0.014

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.103
v bottom-tier opponents+0.163
As favourite+0.053
Evenly matched+0.033

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.087
Conceded when ahead+0.062
Conceded late (76+)-0.165

Congested vs rested +0.07 · Ahead vs level +0.12 · Behind vs level -0.04

Watford · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193

Game state

When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015

Situations

At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16

Wrexham

Current: winless 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-123 50%1.611.571.391.171.25
3-5-28 17%0.50.881.880.962.43
3-5-1-16 13%1.51.171.51.641.12
3-4-1-23 6%1.671.331.01.341.59
3-1-4-23 6%2.332.00.670.91.43

Watford

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-221 46%1.481.291.291.251.32
4-2-3-110 22%1.31.21.11.250.83
3-5-25 11%0.40.82.00.861.68
3-4-1-23 6%2.332.01.333.01.2
4-3-32 4%0.00.52.01.481.61

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.7Home 35% P 34%3.3Draw 28% P 28%2.55Away 37% P 38%

Double Chance

1.53Wrexham or Draw 31% P 31%1.33Wrexham or Watford 35% P 36%1.4Draw or Watford 34% P 33%

Draw No Bet

2.01 46%1.722 54%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56% P 54%2.1No 44% P 46%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 49%1.9Under 50% P 51%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 23%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50%1.83Under 50%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 37.5–40% · 491 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home34%34%31%-2.8
Draw28%28%28%-0.1
Away38%39%42%+3.0

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 59% · over 2.5 53%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes54%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.549%49%50%+1.3

Jacob Miles

Career
10 matches · 6 seasons
Cards / match
4.2 (3.8 yellow · 0.2 red)
Fouls / match
22.2 · 3.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.1
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 2 matches)

Fewer than 10 matches with card data in this league — averages only: 5.5 cards, 16.3 fouls per match.

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-06 113 330 1'11
2025-11-26 30 180 42'6
2025-11-08 –– 12– –8